Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump
 
  • Locked thread
Gnarly Bae Jepsen
Jul 12, 2007

Manic Pixie Dick Girl

Chelb posted:

Nevada's looking like it might be a lock for hillary

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/794154915081940993

If this is he case, why does 538 have Nevada 50/50? Also, why is Florida red? Urge to arzy rising...
* # ¿ Nov 3, 2016 14:20
  • Quote
Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 12, 2024 20:24
  • Quote
Gnarly Bae Jepsen
Jul 12, 2007

Manic Pixie Dick Girl

Harrow posted:

He explains what that is here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

In summary, it's because:
  • The 538 model assumes greater uncertainty due to higher-than-usual numbers of "undecided" voters.
  • The model is calibrated based on elections since 1972, and polling was less accurate back then. In the article, he notes that if they calibrated the model based on elections since 2000, Clinton's chances would jump into the 90s.
  • The model weights really unlikely events more highly than other models.
  • The model places greater weight on the possibility of polling errors, because if there are widespread polling errors in one state, it is likely to be correlated with similar errors in other states. This is the big one people mention for why the 538 model is such an outlier.
I don't know nearly enough about statistics to judge whether all of those mean it's a better or worse model, though. As a pessimist, I tend to trust it more, but it's just that: I'm a pessimist, so I get suspicious when I see things implying Clinton's got a massive chance of winning.

I know it's three pages late, but thanks for this. It answers my question and really antis my arzy. After 2008 and 12, I just instinctively defaulted to 538, so it's weird to see it busted.

* # ¿ Nov 3, 2016 15:27
  • Quote
Gnarly Bae Jepsen
Jul 12, 2007

Manic Pixie Dick Girl

 Part of me wants New Hampshire to go for Trump while Arizona goes blue as proof that NH is the libertarian shithole that I think it is.

* # ¿ Nov 3, 2016 17:42
  • Quote
Gnarly Bae Jepsen
Jul 12, 2007

Manic Pixie Dick Girl

 Does anyone have any info on early voting in New Jersey? That map that gets posted said it's available, but all I can research says no excuse absentee ballot only, and I don't have enough time to get that in.

* # ¿ Nov 5, 2016 01:44
  • Quote
Gnarly Bae Jepsen
Jul 12, 2007

Manic Pixie Dick Girl

weekly font posted:

No early voting here.

Welp. Luckily my whole office gets off work so we can vote.

* # ¿ Nov 5, 2016 01:49
  • Quote
  • Locked thread
The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump