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edrith posted:
Is this for real?
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Nov 1, 2016 08:31
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Tom Guycot posted:So how does everyone think election night will go down? Trump will claim (falsely) that the Agent Greenback theory is true so he can say he succeeded.
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Nov 1, 2016 10:59
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Tom Guycot posted:The what? That Trump's a Clinton Mole that's losing on purpose. Agent Greenback was what he was called in a political cartoon during the primary.
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Nov 1, 2016 11:18
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I'm aryzing so drat hard here.  https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/793253029197836292
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Nov 1, 2016 11:33
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The biggest evidence that Trump’s losing. Aryzing finished. Stiffed his pollster over 700 grand. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html#item-2 http://www.thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303615-trump-camp-refusing-to-pay-pollster quote:Trump Stiffs His Pollster
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Nov 1, 2016 12:07
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canepazzo posted:Can someone explain NC early voting to me? I keep reading that D are in good shape there, and in fact, they're leading EV by a huge margin. However, they're below 3-4% compared to same day 2012, while R are up 8-9%; and R ended up winning NC. So why is NC considered in a good D position? Is it because there's a huge increase in Unaffiliated? Is it cause many were self-reporting D in 2012 but actually voting R since Carter? NY Times explains it well http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
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Nov 1, 2016 14:01
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Some bad polls came out? How bad should I arzy?
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Nov 1, 2016 23:18
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canepazzo posted:Trump's GOTV is going to win Nevada: According to 10,000 simulations of the elections by 538, if Trump loses North Carolina he loses 95% of the time. NYTimes analysis of the early vote in North Carolina has Clinton up 49-43.3% Pretty in depth http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html Early voting in Nevada also suggests Hillary has a healthy lead. Trump only has a 9 % chance to win if he loses Nevada . http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/ With Trump losing both, I have to think his chances are very small. On the other hand , I expect the polls to be off by 3 or 4 points one way or the other. Just checked on NY Times path to victory. If Hillary wins North Carolina & Nevada, and assuming she also wins Virginia and Colorado (which I can't see not happening if she won the former), then Clinton has 59 ways to win and Trump only has 3 ways to win, while there are two chances for a tie. He has to win Florida, possible, and Pennsylvannia which seems unlikely unless the Transit strike screws us.
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Nov 2, 2016 00:51
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Turnout's going to be really high this year. Which is likely screwing up the polls. Not sure who that favors on a national scale though. This doesn't even have Texas, whose numbers have gone through the roof. 
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Nov 2, 2016 01:00
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A Winner is Jew posted:Higher turnout has always favored democrats historically. That's true, but in theory white working class voters that typically don't vote could come out in mass. They're one of the lowest participating demographics, so they have room for a lot of growth. It's really the only way Trump could win, so I worry about it.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:03
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TyrantWD posted:Other than the tracking polls, there haven't really been many regularly reporting polls to see if Comey had any effect. There is the NBC/SM poll that saw no change post Comey, and overall no change in the last week, but it's also shown no reaction to most events that caused polls to shift (conventions, pneumoniagate, pussygate, and the first debate). Probably no enthusiasm screen, just "do you intend to vote" & "have you voted before" questions.
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Nov 2, 2016 01:38
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exploding mummy posted:the early polling results in Florida are suggesting that a third of Republican early vote is going to Clinton Citation on that?
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Nov 2, 2016 03:15
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Relin posted:But they become old people who do vote, surely? I guess it would be that then a lot of them switch like computer parts said...? Think of it this way. Young person votes when they're twenty in 1970. They're socially liberal by the standards of the time. Their views do not change as they get over. This makes them socially conservative by the standards of the time when they vote at age 66 in 2016.
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Nov 2, 2016 06:09
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:the arzy interpretation if he's a Rubio data guy is "I'm surprised it took so long for one of these unrealistically rosy looks at the data to come out to make Dems feel better about the cold hard fact that fl is tied and Rubio is running away with it downticket" Wouldn't the Rubio data guy be pretty happy about his guy winning big and Trump losing? After all, Trump derailed his guys chance at the nomination.
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Nov 2, 2016 06:10
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:Yes what I'm saying is he's happy that the "omg 28% of Rs voted Hillary" is out there because he knows some lovely pollsters have found that data, he doesn't personally believe it's true, and it's now being used to give false hope to the Dems while his boy cruises to re-election in the correct polling world No. You're disagreeing with me. That poll that said 28% of Rs voted for Hillary also has Rubio winning with 51% of the vote due to ticket splitting. I'm say the Rubio guy would be happy with all those things being true.
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Nov 2, 2016 06:33
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Mr Interweb posted:Are those numbers for Dems or both parties? Huh? Dem numbers look better in all three states compared to 2012
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Nov 2, 2016 10:28
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Le0 posted:So medias in Switzerland are all reporting that Trump will win/Is back in it because that Washington Post/ABC News thing showing he's up 46/45 or something. WaPo is the good one. WaTimes is the bad one.
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Nov 2, 2016 10:34
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Anything from the last 10 hours that I should be aryzing over?
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Nov 2, 2016 23:13
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:There were good Florida/NC polls from both CNN and Quinipaic so no thankfully. There was a weird -3 Virginia poll from some random pollster but that goes against literally every other poll by a dozen points so I would throw it away. Can I get a link to those? Doesn't seem to have stopped the slide on 538, trend line still down?
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Nov 2, 2016 23:20
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:3 separate polls released today have Clinton up in Florida. The most recent one that has her down is from a new pollster called Remmington which is officially affiliated with the GOP and run by Ted Cruz's campaign manager. I see the CNN and Survey USA polls at 538. What's the third? Seinna College and Marist College had Trump up before those two.
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Nov 3, 2016 00:01
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Any new analysis on the early voter numbers?
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Nov 3, 2016 00:38
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Samuel Clemens posted:Look up Schnorkles posts in the C-SPAM Trump thread if you want a detailed breakdown. The short version is that Dems are doing well in NV, CO, and NC, and not so hot in OH and IA. FL initially looked very promising for the GOP, but the Dems have slowly been gaining ground over the last couple of days. Not really somewhere I want to go.
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Nov 3, 2016 00:47
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Ciaphas posted:Much as I abhor the very idea of that gross Yam Golem having possession of the Nuclear Football, checks and balances in the White House alone would put paid to using it Nope. The whole system is predicated on the president not being a petulant child.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:06
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wilderthanmild posted:Well we know from earlier conversations that the submarine nukes are kept in the dark about whether or not codes they get are real or a drill. So apparently they repeatedly receive codes and go through the procedure as if it was real, except that no missiles launch at the end. In theory they wouldn't know until they started hearing missiles launching. Does the launch have to go through anyone else or is it from the football direct to the launchers? Goes through the general/admiral and then direct to the base commandant/sub captain IIRC then to the launchers. So two people
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Nov 3, 2016 01:29
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Mr Hootington posted:
I'd really like to see Texas on these lists.
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Nov 3, 2016 01:41
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Texas Early Vote http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/archive.shtml 2012 --- 3,407,497 votes through Nov 2nd out of 8,653,889 registered voters 2016 ---- 3,311,159 votes through Nov 1st out of 9,759,797 registered voters
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Nov 3, 2016 02:38
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Charlz Guybon posted:Texas Early Vote I should note that those are 2012's totals. 2016 has three more days of early voting to go.
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Nov 3, 2016 02:55
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Ganon posted:Bret Baier: FBI Sources Believe Clinton Foundation Case Moving Towards "Likely an Indictment" DOJ would have to decide that. It ain't happening.
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Nov 3, 2016 03:04
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Those live polls look absolutely wretched.  
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Nov 3, 2016 03:19
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mcmagic posted:People know all of this. And a lot apparently don't care... They also have the memory of a gold fish. This kind of ad pumps up turnout among your base and depresses it among the opponets.
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Nov 3, 2016 03:28
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This looks too good to be true https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793948060367863808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw quote:@QuinnipiacPoll, Among Early Voters:
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Nov 3, 2016 03:43
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Sky Shadowing posted:Probably, but I expect early voting is heavily urban to avoid long lines on election day, which gives dems an advantage, whereas the less crowded rural areas are more election day, which helps republicans. I don't recall that being true in the past. It's varied by state I think.
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Nov 3, 2016 03:46
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Looks like increased Hispanic turnout making up for the drop in the African-American vote? https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793933545916039168 quote:Nate Cohn
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Nov 3, 2016 03:52
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Arcanen posted:I know, right? Lol at people thinking that cricket of all things, a sport played and loved by dozens of countries, is somehow more important than the "WORLD SERIES" (that only involves the US) of baseball (that no one cares about outside of the US). Don't they know that the only sports that matter are baseball, football and basketball? I.e. the sports that the US is pretty much alone in taking seriously? The World Series sometimes invovles Canada. Also Baseball is popular in Latin America and East Asia. In fact, the MLB playoffs are broadcast on TV here in Korea.
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Nov 3, 2016 04:33
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Either someone is lying under oath or Trump is a pedophile A sworn affidavit where Jeffery Epstein's employee recounts Trump getting a double blow job from a 13 and 12-year-old (on page 12). https://www.scribd.com/doc/316341058/Donald-Trump-Jeffrey-Epstein-Rape-Lawsuit-and-Affidavits#fullscreen&from_embed Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 05:31 on Nov 3, 2016 |
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Nov 3, 2016 05:25
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Potato Salad posted:Cubs won. Got a link to that?
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Nov 3, 2016 07:49
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Mixodorian posted:https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters That's the original poll isn't it? I thought there was more?
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Nov 3, 2016 08:08
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Nice map of Florida early vote. Eyeballing it, looks good for Dems http://brianamos.com/maps/flearlyvote.html
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Nov 3, 2016 08:28
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WeAreTheRomans posted:I honestly don't remember this many fragile little bitches in 2012, which shaped up to be a much closer election than what we got here Romney would just have been a bad president, not an existential threat to the Republic like Trunp.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:43
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FactsAreUseless posted:We hosed it up royally because there was no way to fight it other than an indefinite occupation. We could have sent in the airborne to Torra Bora and captured or killed bin Laden right at the start then left. The Bush administration was far to casualty averse in that situation.
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Nov 3, 2016 12:57
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