USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump

«‹›3 »

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

I wish this nightmare was already over.

I just want President Clinton and an end to this madness and horror.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 12:20

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 9, 2024 23:57

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

That ABC poll can't help but make me arzy some. I know it's a dumb tracking poll and there has to be something wrong with one that shows a 13 point swing in 8 days, but I'd sure like to see a few pro-Clinton outliers, too, to calm me down.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 12:26

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

The thing is, whenever Trump surges to get kinda close again it's this weird feeling like a natural disaster, you know? Where it's like 'We've done everything we can, why the gently caress is this happening?'

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 12:28

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

I just feel like we're still losing lead and it's a race to see if the clock or our lead runs out first.

Probably irrational.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 12:35

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Gort posted:

So say we did have irrefutable proof that Trump is controlled by Russia, and everyone in the country knew about it.

What would be his share of the vote? 33%? 32?

44. I'm pretty convinced this is going to end up coming down entirely to motivation to vote and partisan hardening.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 12:41

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/u...type=Multimedia

Honestly, this article is pretty good anti-arzy, despite the headline.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 12:51

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Mulva posted:

Therapy, it's cool.

Already doing it.

Like I said, I have a legit anxiety disorder and this election put me back in therapy.

I should probably check out of the thread and the news for awhile, though.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 13:02

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

nachos posted:

have some more anti-Arzy

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793424767823015936

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793414183844995072

Thank you kindly.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 13:15

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Shifty Pony posted:

Old people can and do sit at home all day watching Fox News, or their social group includes people that do and want to talk about the evil thing they heard about.

This is what got my brother when he moved down south. :smith:

Since he moved to St. Thomas and got a new job as a resort chef he's gotten better, though.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 13:26

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Antti posted:

I doubt anything will come out of it either. It seems like sex stuff is the only thing with any bite in depressing R enthusiasm.

I think what we're seeing is a gazillion news stories coming out, that have been in the works for a while (maybe as soon as Trump secured the nomination) that need to get kicked out the door while they have any relevancy left. Odds are most of them will be anti-Trump.

A torrent of anti-Trump stories would be precisely what would help, mind. We want every R who waited for Tuesday to be like 'Oh man, can I really go for this guy'.

And/or the possibility of Trump going nuts.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 13:48

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Four years from now no one will remember having voted for Trump.

Curiously I think this will be true even if he somehow wins.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 13:56

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Shifty Pony posted:

The problem is that there is a fuckton of money to be made off of this fearmongering. Not just in the news industry but there are tons of speakers that just tour the entire country continuously warning of the evil horrible things that will happen (Buy my book to find out more! Pay me to come back for a longer speech to really go into the details!). It used to be the darn Mexicans but now Muslims and Sharia law are the big money makers.

This American Life (which I normally can't stand) actually had a good story this weekend about how the hate can take over a town.

I mean, just look at how much the networks have made on this election. And they did it by basically taking up the advertising slack for the Trump campaign.

Every day they can sell the race as competitive is another day that both sides will tune in enormously.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 13:59

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

dwarf74 posted:

Same for my wife. Her doc has specifically advised her not to talk about politics.

Honestly, right after the email thing re-broke, it became too much for me until ... well, this morning.

It's really hard to look away when you're anxious, though.

At the same time, all this absolute terror about a possible Trump victory kinda reassures me he won't win. If *I'm* scared, and I'm a white, straight, christian male from an upper class family, I don't doubt the people who'd actually be in his crosshairs are turning out hard.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 14:08

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

My parents' liberalism has only hardened as they've hit their 70s. I love 'em. :unsmith:

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 14:13

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

WampaLord posted:

How does one prepare for the Director of the FBI being a loving rear end in a top hat?

Yeah, this is really not something you get ready for, considering it's an unprecedented breach of decorum.

They've done a good job of fighting an unprecedented attack.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 14:16

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Harrow posted:

Frankly, the House will probably have the votes to begin impeachment proceedings after the 2018 midterms. The trial would be held in the Senate, though, and if the Democrats can at least prevent the Republicans from gaining a two-thirds majority, it's unlikely that Clinton would actually be successfully impeached. The House might do it just to hurt her chances at reelection in 2020, but it's doubtful they'd succeed in getting her removed from office.

Impeaching a Clinton to try to destroy their reputation didn't work last time and won't work this time.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 14:23

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Harrow posted:

I forget that Bill's approval rating went up after the impeachment trial, didn't it?

YEP! People saw it as badgering bullshit and unfair to him.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 14:24

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Radish posted:

I mean she's basically running against years of right wing racism and sexism exploding full force, the Russian intelligence agencies allied with several hacker groups, the directory of the FBI, a congress that is leaking information it's not supposed to be, and a media that either has a decades old grudge against her or is cynically promoting email stories for views. I'm really not sure what her campaign was supposed to do that it hasn't unless it comes out that her ground game was actually garbage all along and the silent majority floods the polls while everyone that isn't a white man over 35 stays home.

I'm always amazed it doesn't get more play that a loving foreign government decided to throw itself at her as hard as it could.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 14:29

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

FAUXTON posted:

They polled for this and most Trump voters are, in fact, voting out of hatred for Hillary rather than love of Trump.

They'd hate any Dem the same. The machine would spin up 'this person is gonna eat your babies' for anyone they could find.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 15:26

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Dr.Zeppelin posted:

my least favorite thing about the michelle obama fantasy run is that she's made it abundantly clear that she hates DC and can't wait to leave but people just skip over this because we need to deny her agency to satisfy our electoral fantasies

Is it okay if I say she'd kick total rear end as a candidate but respect her wishes not to run?

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 15:30

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

sumie posted:

The sad thing is that they've been posted multiple times, but it's still essentially the exact same conversation

It's a bit like that flash headline of '33% of voters say they're less likely to vote Hillary due to EMAILS! (except that 95% of them are Republicans already)'

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 15:55

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

iospace posted:

So, if anyone was wondering how Comey would affect things:
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793065727397879809
Here you go.

Some of that might just be Souls to the Polls and all, but still. If Comey just ends up energizing the democratic base or bouncing off and his hatchet job doesn't even accomplish anything, it will be perfect.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 16:10

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

canepazzo posted:

https://twitter.com/ericbradner/status/793470063034634240

25million ad buy in CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, NM, NC, OH, WI, VA, NV, NH for Trump.

Hail Mary or we're doomed? For you to decide.

Hail Mary.

His flailing actually calms me down a hell of a lot.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 16:17

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

computer parts posted:

I'm actually betting it's less Hillary specifically and more that Russia gave them a bunch of support if they did things in a certain way.

Remember Assange is a self-centered little twerp. Everything that happens goes through the lens of 'I am the most important guy on the planet', and Hillary was secretary of state when he fled into the little hole he's in. He probably really does think she keeps trying to kill him.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 16:36

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

canepazzo posted:

Unreported in that earlier advertising blitz from Camp Trump - they pulled ads from PA. Read it as you will.

That's batshit insane, but then, Trump.

Also, I think this may be the one year a shy tory effect isn't insane to hope for. I remember prior polls found way, way more husbands think their wives are supporting Trump than actually are. We're winning without it, just...It'd be a good surprise to cap this off.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 16:48

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Antti posted:

There is no tape in the Clinton vault. We'd have seen it by now.

If your resources are limited like theirs are, you need to gamble for the map where you can win. My best guess, if we are to assume some kind of rational actor at work here (!), is that they have decided that the only way they win the election is if the polls have a particular kind of demographic miss that, if factored in all the swing states, means that PA is a tight win for Trump, which then means states that are not like PA are the ones that need flipping.

It'd have to be something like "suburban whites and educated whites will not actually vote for Clinton", for PA to be the one they're pulling from. That'd imply pulling from CO, NH and VA as well, and pouring money into FL, NC, GA, AZ, NV instead. It'd imply a map like this where you still need to win Florida or run the table elsewhere to win.

What I'm saying is, the same way Romney trying to play for PA in 2012 meant he was , Trump pulling out from PA in 2016 means he's super . But if all the polls have you down, down down, you either concede the election immediately like Bob Dole or you unskew the polls enough to show a potentially winning map and then play the game as if that's the real map.

The only reason this doesn't reassure me quite as much as it would is that I can't honestly believe Trump has access to anything approaching accurate data or rational strategy.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:02

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Antti posted:

That is the one big caveat in my post.

But consider how I summarized: Romney playing for PA meant he was desperate. What does Trump, doing far worse in polls than Romney four years ago, pulling out from PA mean? How can it possibly mean anything good for Trump?

If any sane Republican strategist were calling shots and thinking beyond the top of the ticket, they would be dumping truckloads of money in PA to help Toomey.

The thing is, even if we assume he's rationally planning, his priorities don't give a flying gently caress about the downticket. Even if this is a rational attempt at a hail mary (which it might be, not everyone in his campaign is completely insane) it's be rational from the perspective of 'how do we win the presidency', not 'how do we at least save the senate'.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:07

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

The weird thing is, when you look at the polls for this election, Hillary will dominate for exactly one month then start to slide back towards a narrow lead, then jump back up like the electorate found a spider under their toilet seat. It's happened like clockwork.

We might just be unlucky in having the actual election fall during one of the slides so the win isn't as crushing.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:38

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Mel Mudkiper posted:

It could also, like Sam Wang has argued, be a sign of a relatively stable election. IF the swings are all still strongly correlated to a medium it may just be statistical noise obfuscating an obvious outcome

This is basically my guess. I think he makes a good case for it. The big swings happen when the partisanship gets shaken for a moment, but they come back home when they realize 'gently caress he's still a Republican' and aren't presented with any overwhelming evidence he's insane for a week or two.

Would've been nice if the election had hit at a moment of terrible enthusiasm for Trump, though.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:44

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Covok posted:

Is Russian's military even a threat to the U.S. sans nuclear weapons?

No, though that's a bit of 'That aside, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?'

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:45

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Still, NC is in the bag at the moment and without NC, Trump basically has no plausible path. We're going to win, just a matter of how much.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:49

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

I'm going to be happy even if we lose the senate just because we didn't elect an honest to god Fascist. Like, I obviously really, really want us to win the senate too.

But I will take basically any outcome without Trump without going insane, even as we get to watch the legacy of 2010 grind our system of governance to dust.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:52

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

If Trump bombed right now it would have calmed down again by election day. Ideally he will get caught on video beating a dog sometime in the next three or four days.

Hopefully, or he'll do something monumentally dumb because he thinks he's winning.

The real problem is the biggest pro-Hillary swings come whenever the voters actually see the two side by side with no filter or Truth In The Middle, and I fear they'll have had time to forget the debates by the election.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 17:58

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

Trump 2016: So Relentlessly Horrible It's Really Kind Of Boring

I hate to say it but I think that's the case for most voters about Trump now.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 18:01

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Teriyaki Koinku posted:

NOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo......

The very idea of this hits me almost as hard as E-Mails popping up Friday did.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 18:26

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

canepazzo posted:

Bad polls today with battleground states such as TX, IN and MO all moving back to double digits lead for Trump.

Serious question: would those states moving back to traditional redness account for the fact that national polls are tightening but real swing states not so much?

That's entirely possible. I'd read before that Clinton's surprising closeness in the red states was accounting for why she was at normal levels in the swing states but not winning more nationally.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 18:52

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Also, CNN's topline is no longer EMAILS EMAILS EMAILS but rather 'Obamacare Rate Hike Not Actually That Bad', so that's nice.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 18:55

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

CapnAndy posted:

I appeal to you, wise goons, to unfuck some dissonance for me. This is my absolute nightmare map, and quite frankly it felt dishonest to turn NC red:

Wait, we can win WITHOUT NC, FL, or OH?

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 19:25

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

computer parts posted:

Now you see why the GOP is pushing "PA is a swing state" so furiously.

Jesus christ. Unless there's a complete and total collapse for Clinton in the next 7 days, I see why PEC has it at 99%.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 19:27

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 9, 2024 23:57

Night10194: Feb 13, 2012; We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Mind_Taker posted:

Nate's model is incredibly conservative IMO. PEC still has a Trump win at 1-3%, which IMO is a more accurate description given current polling. Trump winning basically requires historically inaccurate polling despite polling getting more and more accurate by the year.

Upshot has it at 88/12, which seems like a reasonable conservative estimate.

There's also been no sign of such a collapse in the state polls, at all.

# ¿ Nov 1, 2016 19:27

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL Nov: The vindication of Prester Jane by the narcissist Donald Trump

«‹›3 »