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538 Article: The Cubs Have a Smaller Chance of Winning than Trump Does I'm worried.
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Nov 3, 2016 03:54
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Evan Bayh is now polling underwater in Indiana. GOP chances of keeping the Senate up considerably if he loses. As an Indiana resident, it seems the more I throw money at this race, the worse it gets.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:17
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Deified Data posted:Yeah I really hope he's not necessary to retake the senate - if so all hope is lost. He's a former Indiana governor and senator. A popular one, too. Methinks that was the appeal. But Bayh is an insider running in the year of the outsider. In a red state, which Trump is going to win easily. And Todd Young happens to be a fresh face. A fresh face full of crow's feet, but a fresh face nonetheless. And he gets to thump his chest and say, "Ooh-rah" because he's a former US Marine. Power to him, but he still isn't my man. I'm debating on volunteering Monday/Tuesday. Never done it before, but I've never felt like the future of the country and the world was more at stake, so it's kind of motivating me.
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Nov 4, 2016 17:53
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Indiana and Missouri now pink in the Senate race, as per 538: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwbzLEvXAAEQK0L.jpg
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Nov 4, 2016 18:56
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Forgive me, but I don't see the upside in criticizing Nate Silver and characterizing the race as a done deal for Clinton. Elections aren't won on the back of complacency and good feelings. They're won with sweat and hard work. If you want to see Democrats win, then don't just sup on reassurances here. Let the 538 forecast light a fire of panic under you. Donate your money. Donate your time. Volunteer for get out the vote efforts, should you live in a state that's in play, or a state or district with a competitive congressional race. There's four days 'til the election. It's all hands on deck.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:00
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Impeachment wouldn't make it past the Senate. Removal from office requires a 66-vote supermajority. That isn't going to happen.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:24
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weekly font posted:Bunch of great battleground polls come out: Clinton inches up 1.5% It makes sense if you understand the methodology. One of 538's core conceits is that state polls don't move independent of one another; all of the states are correlated to some extent. If a bunch of good polls come up for Trump in Georgia and South Carolina, for example, that means he's probably also doing well in North Carolina.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:29
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WampaLord posted:Because his model is so far out of whack with the other various polling models. Either they are all wrong, or he is. It's not the case that Silver's model is "out of whack" with the rest of the models. It simply expresses a lot more uncertainty about the outcome, which manifests as a higher probability of winning for the candidate behind in the polls and a lower probability for the candidate out front. Look at the year we just went through. A populist groundswell. Trump. Bernie. Outsiders are in and insiders are out. You've got Emailgate, Russia, Wikileaks, and the Republican smoke machine. A huge demographic split between men and women. Civil war in the Republican Party. Only 80-some-odd percent of Republicans pledging support for the GOP nominee. Not-insignificant support for third parties, including an insurgent conservative in Utah by the name of Evan McMuffin. Two candidates with abysmal favorability ratings. Debatably low enthusiasm on both sides. In times like these, it's probably not a bad idea to err on the side of greater uncertainty.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:46
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weekly font posted:More that I think Nate has no barrier to entry for polls, like other aggregates do. He's letting some real garbage poo poo swing his numbers. He doesn't discriminate. He lets any pollster in, except for an odd few who've been banned. All the the results are weighted based on pollster quality, however, and unknown pollsters aren't weighted significantly.
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Nov 4, 2016 20:49
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Ominous state polls for Clinton out of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. If those should fall, and if Florida doesn't come through, early vote leads in Nevada and North Carolina won't necessarily matter. Firewall looking weaker by the day. Trump's within striking distance. All it'll take is another shoe to drop: another terrorist attack, another FBI kerfuffle, another major revelation from the Wikileaks mystery box. Don't assume GOTV will offset a rising tide for Trump.
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Nov 5, 2016 00:21
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Fojar38 posted:Source your quotes I didn't quote anyone.
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Nov 5, 2016 00:26
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skylined! posted:Don't assume the 3% of people that are both going to vote and aren't ardently decided at this point are going to give a poo poo about anything new coming to light at this point. There's a huge danger in a lot of these polls in how low the decided vote is. Take the Detroit Free Press poll out of Michigan: http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/ 42-38 is a horrible number in Michigan. That's a firewall state. That's supposed to be blue wall. But the fact that it's only 42 makes it a hell of a lot more dangerous than if it were 48-44. You may say, "Not a lot of those undecideds are actually going to vote" -- but it won't take much to upset the apple cart if there's a late break toward Trump. That, I would say, is an ominous poll. Source: me, myself, and I. I'm not channeling Nate Silver here, I'm not parroting whatever article he put up on 538. It's a simple fact.
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Nov 5, 2016 00:36
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Michigan is 100% going blue good god you are nuts. I don't think I'm nuts. I think it's a mistake of hubris to assume just because something's gone your way consistently in the past, it'll definitely continue to go your way in the future. I'm old enough to remember between '04 and '08 when Republicans said, "New Mexico is in the South, it's 100% going red, are you nuts?" And look at it now. Things change. And besides -- Ohio, Michigan... Let's be frank. These states aren't going to stay blue forever. Ohio's all but gone for Democrats this cycle, and perhaps every future cycle if it continues to trend redder. And who knows how much longer Michigan will stay in the Democratic column? Unions are all but dead. Democrats lost the blue collar white vote in the 1990s, and Trump's ringing all their bells. Michigan has a Republican governor, and a Republican house and senate. You may disagree, and you're entitled to, but I don't think it's so totally unthinkable that it flips. It probably won't, but there's a real possibility it will.
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Nov 5, 2016 00:58
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Not sure if it's already been posted, but did anyone see this little chestnut? There's an elector in Washington State who's refusing to cast his vote for Clinton, promising to be a faithless elector. He was one of the Bernie Sanders supporters who swarmed the press tent during the DNC. So if he holds out, you can take 1 off whatever EV total Clinton gets in the end. 
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Nov 5, 2016 01:13
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Le Saboteur posted:Don't you guys see the bluest blue state Michigan is definitely going on red. The end is loving nigh. Why is Clinton spending vital hours campaigning in Michigan if it really is so laughable?
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Nov 5, 2016 01:18
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Pollyanna posted:Okay, I'm a little confused. I've got a letter stating I'm registered to vote, I've got a new license and everything, and I'm wondering if I'm still somehow barred from voting based on the MA deadline. If I wasn't able to vote on Tuesday, would I still have received this letter telling me I am registered? Am I gonna be turned away at the polls even though there isn't anything stating I'm unable to vote? What's stopping me from voting anyway even if I was officially registered to vote on the day after the deadline? Massachusetts? https://www.sec.state.ma.us/VoterRegistrationSearch/MyVoterRegStatus.aspx Check there. Otherwise you can probably call your local elections supervisor.
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Nov 5, 2016 01:23
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Pollyanna posted:
You should be good. No party enrollment only means you aren't registered as a Democrat or a Republican, meaning you can't vote in any primary elections until you are. You should be fine for the general election. Does the site provide you with a polling place? If so, you're definitely good. Remember you can only vote at your specified polling place.
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Nov 5, 2016 01:31
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I guess this means I'm good? I'll certainly try to vote on Tuesday, at least.
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Grouchio posted:Has the potential Al-Qaeda threat on Monday been addressed? http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37877391 From what I understand (aka what I heard on Wolf Blitzer an hour ago) it's just low-level chatter, not a definitive threat. Grouchio posted:Also why the gently caress would the BBC put Clinton as tied with Trump? I somehow think that's massive bullshit! What happened to our landslide? Comey. 
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Nov 5, 2016 01:37
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