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What is Obama's plan, exactly, to fight gerrymandering? Just go balls-out to make sure 2020 is a Democratic wave, something that's basically impossible to guarantee because wave elections are usually a result of external factors? Court challenges? Grassroots advocacy? I'm hugely skeptical that a tidal shift can be achieved before the next census election, especially if the next 4 years are another 4 years of gridlock.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:09
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Tom Guycot posted:So I know the democrats are supposed to take a shellacking in 2018, but just how bad is it going to be? Is there any chance of them winning enough seats to fast track through an impeachment? Impeachment takes 67 votes in the Senate, so unless the Democrats got absolutely wiped out on this map:  or Hillary actually did something bad enough that, like Watergate, she would have to deal with large-scale Democratic defections in the event of a vote, the answer is no.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:20
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Harrow posted:I forget that Bill's approval rating went up after the impeachment trial, didn't it? Yeah but this is a *bit* of an apples and oranges situation, though. The First (here's hoping we never have to actually use this term) Clinton Impeachment was basically a sex-shaming witch-hunt led by (as the DPRK News parody twitter account puts it) porcine lecher Newt Gingrich. While I'm not saying that a Second Clinton Impeachment would be an unconditional PR boon for the Republicans, it would probably be less obviously laughable when the Impeachment is over [insert trumped-up corruption scandal here] and led by the bizarrely, unfairly lionized Paul Ryan, Serious man with Serious ideas.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:27
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Nocturtle posted:I do wonder what the 2010 Democrat party leadership was doing while the Republicans literally locked down the house for at least a decade. Maybe it was inevitable given the off-year election effect. 2010 was basically a perfect storm. It was the peak of the tea-party frenzy that set the conservative grassroots on fire. It was an off-year election, which obviously means lower Democratic turnout. Right wing media, with centrist media acting as a willing second, had already painted Obamacare as an evil socialist government takeover of medicine, which would institute the Death Panels, giving every conservative on earth something to run against. And, perhaps most significantly, 2010 was the swan song for Blue Dog Democrats, who were wiped out almost to a man after managing to outrun partisan sorting for the previous decade. The Democratic Party's strategy and campaign for that year, I can't speak for. I don't know the details of how House campaigns are run from the national level, really. I'm sure there was more that they *could* have done to staunch the bleeding (though I don't know, exactly, what that would have looked like), but I get the sense that the Dems were gonna lose the house in 2010 no matter what.
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Nov 1, 2016 14:31
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Agrajag posted:The GOP has had Killary under a microscope for decades and they still couldn't find any wrongdoing on her part aside from EMAIL EMAILS EMAILS. What makes you think she will all of a sudden become some super evil corrupt entity now? It's a hypothetical to create a scenario where impeachment and removal from office is possible. The only reason that was gonna work in 1974 (which prompted Nixon to resign after Goldwater basically told him that the game was up) was because a good chunk of the Republican Senatorial delegation was going to vote in favor of removal. That's what would have to happen to sink Hillary, unless there's a catastrophic wipeout of Democratic Senatorial candidates in 2018. Even in the 1999 impeachment, though, you had 5 or so Republicans voting against removal (including the noble senator John Chafee of Rhode Island, father to a martyred son, Lincoln Chafee, who would be beating Trump by 20 points now).
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Nov 1, 2016 14:36
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In any case, the VP debate didn't do wonders for my faith in Kaine as an attractive option at the top of the ticket.
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Nov 1, 2016 15:08
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BigRed0427 posted:So is the Trump/ Russia stuff getting any kind of play? Nah
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Nov 1, 2016 15:44
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It's a Hail Mary, but Georgia lost to one of those a few weeks ago, so.
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Nov 1, 2016 16:23
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good news/bad news time https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097
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Nov 1, 2016 16:29
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he's the one we were all excited to hear tell us last week that Trump was actually tied in IN, so, you know.
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Nov 1, 2016 16:32
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Yeah a Hillary win by 4 or so, with GOP control of the Senate, is as close to a pyrrhic victory as you can come. Not saying that that's certainly gonna happen, but, ya know.
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Nov 1, 2016 16:35
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No Butt Stuff posted:I would expect a steady stream through Sunday. Unless there's some chaser to all of last nights shots, the oppo dump of last night looked more like flailing than any sort of legitimate strategy. I think both candidates are oppo'd out at this point, Liz Mair's teeth-gnashing aside.
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Nov 1, 2016 16:59
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Antti posted:Thread moves fast so I posted this earlier today, but it's essentially a bunch of investigative reporting coming to fruition and stories that have been incubating getting shoved out the door while readers still care. Most of them will be negative for Trump because he's loving Donald Trump. Maybe, but none of it is gonna be the "oppo" bomb that so many people have been hoping/saying exists. The Russia stuff fizzled out in, like, three hours last night; and if you believe in that FSB Sex Tape, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. And some oceanfront property in Arizona if you think any MSM outlet is gonna run with a story about Trump making a woman sign an NDA after forcing her to have an abortion.
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Nov 1, 2016 17:04
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Antti posted:Right, sure, I was just trying to explain why it feels uncoordinated and muddled - because it is. It's just a bunch of outlets pressing Submit on their Trump stories. It's absolutely not an oppo bomb. There is no oppo bomb. I think the fact that the Clinton campaign followed up on a lot of the Russia stories that came out last night ASAP is an indication that they had some inkling of what was going on (I also read that the Moscow bank server thing was shopped around to several different outlets and that it finally ended up at Slate after even the Daily Beast turned it down). So not oppo, per se, but I think that the campaign was "in the know" and ready to run with any of those stories if they had panned out. Probably more out of wishful thinking than anything, considering that they ended up being a lot of smoke and no fire.
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Nov 1, 2016 17:10
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:Our long national nightmare will finally be over soon. What is it gonna be called when the 1-seat majority Republican Senate refuses to confirm any of President Clinton's SCOTUS nominees, then?
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Nov 1, 2016 17:25
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Peechka posted:I bet hitler was asking the same question before his eastern forces got their asses handed to them. this is the most historically illiterate thing I've read in quite some time, thanks.
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Nov 1, 2016 17:50
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Covok posted:Is it reputable? Rated A on five thirty eight. Time to start digging that fallout shelter.
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Nov 1, 2016 21:10
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speculative anti-arzy by way of a GOP pollster/strategist re: that NC poll https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/793545335503282176
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Nov 1, 2016 21:16
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MrBuddyLee posted:Anyone watching Weld on Maddow? Is he advocating for HRC? Weld is an evolutionary vestige of Rockefeller Republicanism that, from time to time, reasserts itself in Massachusetts. He would obviously be a full-throated Hillary supporter if he was not obligated to at least pretend to be the Vice-Presidential candidate for the Libertarian ticket. Obviously, Johnson, as the "dude weed lmao burn it all down" candidate, couldn't give a poo poo.
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Nov 2, 2016 03:47
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Deified Data posted:We don't need Bayh to retake the senate do we? If so lol IN is one of six remaining competitive Senate races - the others are NV, NC, PA, NH, and MO (and that's if you give Feingold the benefit of the doubt in WI). Outlook is grim.
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Nov 2, 2016 04:01
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https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/793647810155573248 ugh
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Nov 2, 2016 04:11
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twistedmentat posted:Okay, if Trump does something stupid and talk about that really loving fake letter in the next few days, what happens? Uh...nothing? Is this a real question, or?
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Nov 2, 2016 05:00
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I like John Weaver, but let's not pretend he's clairvoyant (or even particularly successful as a campaign strategist). Trump can definitely win. Don't get complacent.
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Nov 5, 2016 01:30
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Neo_Crimson posted:Nurgle because Trump's a fat gently caress too? I dunno. Maybe Trump got a Purple Heart in his own personal Vietnam, if you catch my drift.
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Nov 5, 2016 02:09
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