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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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I feel kind of weird because this election has gone eerily like I thought it would, and at this point my only real concern is "can we get the Senate?" I figure it's gonna happen but it is kind of a thing to sweat at this point!

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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Majorian posted:

I wonder who gets to be the lucky sap who tells him that all his yes-men were wrong - he actually lost.:laugh:
Vladimir Putin

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Majorian posted:

Please. You think Putin would stoop to talking directly to an asset that has failed him so drastically?:commissar:
He will send Trump a message in the language of flowers

Polonium is a flower, right

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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H.P. Hovercraft posted:

fuckin magnets

how do they work
Let's check in with the Juggalo Country beat.

http://time.com/4521464/insane-clown-posse-killer-clowns/

A wicked clown posted:

After 25 years of unquestionably being The World’s Most Hated Band, Insane Clown Posse has just about seen it all. We’ve had an album censored and then yanked from stores by Disney, been completely slaughtered by music critics despite selling over 12 million albums and, for the first time in music history, had our entire fanbase—The Juggalos—officially labeled a “hybrid gang” by the FBI, which to this day continues to have thousands of horror rap–loving fans added to a punishing gang database simply for sporting our logos in public, whether it’s a tattoo, T-shirt or even something as simple as a car window sticker.

So when TIME asked us for our opinion on this wave of so-called “killer clown ” sightings that seem to be popping up all over America, we were intrigued. Rolling Stone called the rash of reports a “hoax” in a recent article that also pointed out that way back in 1981, when me and my partner in rhyme and best friend Shaggy 2 Dope were in grade school, there were reports of so-called “phantom clowns” supposedly driving around in vans, harassing kids, and in some reports, wielding weapons like machetes. Despite the many reports, police could not confirm one incident of this wave of sightings and not a single “phantom clown” was ever arrested.

Cut to 2016. Everyone once again is seeing so-called “killer clowns” everywhere—popping out of bushes, threatening people on social media and assorted other public pranks. Cops have actually arrested a few people this time around, though, because there’s a lot of copycats out there and mass hysteria has a way of making people do stupid s—.

But as ICP has discovered over the last decade, there’s a whole army of scary, terrifying and dangerous clowns out there in this country trying to suppress the rights of thousands of people to exercise the most basic part of the Declaration of Independence, which evokes the freedom to “Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” The only difference is these clowns don’t wear greasepaint.

These clowns threaten the very fabric on which our nation was supposedly founded upon—and for some f—ing crazy-a– reason, they’re getting away with it. From keystone-cop clowns shooting unarmed citizens, to racist clowns burning down Islamic centers or clowns in the NSA spying on us through our cell phones and laptops, America has turned into something far more terrifying than Insane Clown Posse’s Dark Carnival. Even a scrub like me who dropped out of school in ninth grade can see what’s going on. Today’s reality is scarier than anything you’ll ever hear on one of our albums.

If you want to see the ultimate example of these “killer clowns” in action, consider what happened to our hard-working, mostly blue-collar fans, the Juggalos. In 2011, the FBI named the Juggalos in its National Gang Threat Assesment. Ever since, they have been targeted, profiled and blatantly discriminated on by law enforcement agencies across America. Over the last four years, we’ve been working with our legal team and the ACLU of Michigan, to prove to the U.S. Department of Justice that this completely ridiculous gang label slapped on Juggalos is literally destroying lives.

Fact: People simply walking their dogs while wearing an ICP shirt have been stopped, searched and added to the local gang member database—when no crime has been committed. This has happened hundreds and hundreds of times across the U.S., and the stories just get worse from there. Recently, there was a probation officer who was let go for being identified as a Juggalo, and her employer had no problem writing it as the reason for her severance in her termination paperwork. Others have lost their jobs, custody of their kids and been subject to illegal search and seizure.

Which is why on September 16, 2017, at the National Mall in D.C., the Juggalo family and our allies in other civil action groups will march on our nation’s capital, as well as host a two-day free concert, to send our message directly to the U.S. Department of Justice: The discrimination against Juggalos must be seen for the unconstitutional travesty it is.

So you don’t like ICP’s profanity-filled raps, or that we throw soda everywhere at our shows. Or you don’t get why anybody would ever want to attend our Gathering of the Juggalos festival. Just know that, despite these sensationalized reports about “killer clowns” wreaking mischief across the nation, there are real clowns out there killing ours and your very rights as an American citizen.

Now that’s truly scary, and nothing to clown around about.
The current projections in the Juggalo homeland is mixed, with Michigan and Illinois projected to go for Hillary, while Indiana and Ohio are mixed bags. We recommend Hillary Clinton unite her message with the Insane Clown Posse, as they now have a common enemy: Dumbasses at the FBI.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Mixodorian posted:

Remember when Hillary said autism was suspiciously on the rise in 2008 when asked about vaccines? I do

http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2015/02/hillary-clinton-vaccine-tweet


So is she as dumb and crazy as Jill Stein now?
It's true that under Clinton Rules, one remark nearly eight years ago IS completely and exactly the same as a long-standing political position. Also, good things, bad things, the same, no difference.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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In other fiction news: https://www.amazon.com/Ghost-Machine-Destroyer-Warren-Murphy/dp/0451173260

"Buried in his debts, billionaire Randal T. Rumpp makes a deal with a fiend who is intent on sending the Big Apple into the darkest depths of the earth, and only Remo and Chiun can stop him."

I'm told the deal is with a Russian spy who exists only in electronic networks... until Rumpp brings him to life.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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VitalSigns posted:

And then we did find out: the study showing a link was not reproducible and shown to be a complete fraud.

"I want to look at the evidence...okay two years later the evidence is in and vaccines are safe"
vs
"Well I'm just asking questions here and hmm hmm how can we trust anything, big pharma, corporate influence" forever and ever regardless of evidence.

Gee I can't tell which option is good or bad, help me Jill Stein!
I believe the idea, nowadays, is that the first one shows you to be a feckless flip flopper, no doubt in the pay of Big Something, while the latter demonstrates your inspiring moral courage.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Caros posted:

Right?

How loving hard was it that the best vice president they could find was a raging antisemitie?
Well it would seem there is a re-emergent strand of Jew-hatred in the Republicans, maybe that's the next Green Party target demo

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Tashan Dorrsett posted:

It's a loving analogue question.

Do blacks commit more violent crime than other races in America?

[Y] ✓✓✓

[N]
would you say that, "around blacks" one should not "relax"?

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Darth Walrus posted:

Please stop quoting the troll until the moderators finally get off their collective asses and ban them.
fair 'nuff

Any news from Florida or North Carolina? Or is it too loving early for Nite Crew to get fresh reports

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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So I levered myself out of my crypt and I see on political wire that there's some kind of release of CLINTON FOUNDATION FILES from 2005 from the FBI now, for some reason? What's up with that, or is Comey just deciding to go whole hog?

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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LinYutang posted:

Michigan doesn't have early voting, why are absentee ballots so high?
Probably people who either don't trust the governor to not make the polling places out of used scrap lead and uranium, or people wanting to bank their vote before the Insiders trigger a massive meltdown

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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spacetoaster posted:

I don't think anyone is super excited to get out and vote for Hillary. At least not anything like we saw for Obama in either of his presidential elections.
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/762497721831874561

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Koyaanisgoatse posted:

are you really employing the Trump-endorsed method of using rally sizes as a proxy for likelihood of victory
Or to use something from a while back, "Nobody I knew voted for Nixon!"

the next line will be "oh so hillary is nixon huh, what a GREAT analogy, VERY ENCOURAGING bernie stein/socialist paragon

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Northjayhawk posted:

They are excited to block Trump. Not many people are excited about Hillary.

As for crowd size, Romney and Mondale drew big crowds, too. I'm not really interested in the size of Trump's hate rallies.
At one of Trump's in Vegas, they had guys on hand to drive people to early voting? They got fifteen.

Not fifteen van loads, which would probably still be kind of lackluster. Fifteen voters, period.


bencreateddisco posted:

i'm being told that the whole email thing was dropped because Bill had a conversation with Loretta Lynch.

this loving election
On the tarmac of the airport, I am sure

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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spacetoaster posted:

You all can just ignore the photos if they upset you. My question still stands though.
Because a rally doesn't necessarily target votes. Trump can do all the WWE road show touring he wants - and indeed I am sure that if he's hitting the same place, he'll get the same audience. But in fact, WWE usually fills stadiums to the same extent that the Donald seems to be doing, and yet wrestling remains a dumbass muscleman sideshow which does not dominate the media.

Hillary also tends to hold a lot of small, relatively narrow-cast events which aim at particular groups, and are apparently effective, if with less of a Hitlerian air

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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smug n stuff posted:

I really can't fathom how a democrat could not be excited to have the first woman president, especially one as competent as Clinton.

Actually I can but it's just so dumb, jeez.
Many of them are, but of course, we can't admit THAT, not when there's emails and "shadiness" to discuss

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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spacetoaster posted:

So are all you really saying that people are energized to go out and vote for hillary? Because that's what I asked about.
I think a lot of people are, yeah.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Donkwich posted:

We should just decide elections purely on rally size. Get as many people in your rallies as possible, safety regulations be damned.
Trump argued this BTW, and I'm quite sure that we can expect to hear a lot about his big, huge, girthy rallies during his litigation of the result of the election. Does anyone have any guess on how many Very Serious Articles we'll get on how Clinton should concede to Trump, 2 months later, for the Good of the Nation?

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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spacetoaster posted:

Every dem I know was a Bernie supporter and they are the opposite of energized about this election. And it's them that keep posting about random 3rd party candidates I've never heard of on FB all the time too.
Are you sure it's even actually "all of them," and not a couple of guys who post a lot, and a few other people who reply to OTHER bernie-or-busters and thus fill up your feed? Because it's the damnedest thing, I see a lot more "people I know yelling at Trump meme posters" myself, and yet I always see the trump meme at the top, and have to scroll down to find my buddy's remark. Sometimes I can't even chime in myself, but I always see the big Trump picture at the top.

But that's probably just correcting for bias, like when Breitbart got them to change their headlines window.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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spacetoaster posted:

Well no, not ALL of them I'm sure.

But my friends list is small and diverse, it's more than a couple.
The top-upvoted comment on any of Robert Reich's facebook posts is usually someone saying "BERNIE SANDERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" - I don't think this is necessarily indicative of some massive groundswell of sentiment given all the other polls which are still veering between different grades of HRC win.

The election is not illegitimate just because it is not targeting your demographic primarily

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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FuzzySlippers posted:

Why are people with anime avatars suddenly so afraid of war with Russia? We got through the cold war. Syria isn't causing WW3.
For some strange reason, the Hillary is Bad data stream has a lot of things in it discouraging war with plucky little Russia, who aren't so bad once you get to know them, and besides which, have historically ruled the Ukraine and held dominance over the straits of the Bosphorus.

It's weird!

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Chump Farts posted:

I hope 538 is jumping the gun and the racist pumpkin man gets severely owned.
I think to keep this in perspective, the thing people are melting down over, tearfully anxiety storming, etc. is that Hillary's odds have slipped somewhat on the most pessimistic of the major poll aggregators, who avowedly has said that if you take out his correlations poo poo (where Trump being up 5% in Ohio is treated as odds that the polls in PA are actually also +3% for Trump or whatever the gently caress) Trump's chance of winning is like 3%.

Now yes, Trump is real loving bad, but a lot of this anxiety seems to be "Hillary isn't winning by a large enough margin"

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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A Winner is Jew posted:

Yes.

So everyone calm the gently caress down.
I WILL NEVER CALM DOWN, AWIJ :byodood:

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Agrajag posted:

Comey and the FBI is literally doing wikileaks drip feed to swing the loving election.
*try to

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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CapnAndy posted:

Also hey gently caress you buddy :mad:

In all seriousness the "wrestling fans are rednecks" stereotype is seriously out of date. The Venn diagram between "comic book nerds" and "pro wrestling fans" is very close to being a single circle, and these days that includes the wrestlers too, who can be hilarious dorks.
I have a journeyman's awareness of Vince McMahon's muscle festivals, sir, you need not defend its honor: the point remains that it fills venues on the regular, but does not actually dominate society, the way that poster suggested that Trump's rally turnout meant he was going to secretly dominate us all with the "Dark Matter" (ed.: name probably inaccurate) of "people who go to Trump Rallies but are completely invisible to pollsters"

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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TyrantWD posted:

The RNC has a GOTV campaign that is going toe to toe with whatever Hillary has.
OK, now you're just making poo poo up.

I mean I am sure there isn't, like, literally nothing, but there appears to be less than Mitt Romney had, and Trump sure ain't doing much about it. That'd cost money that could be spent on hats.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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CapnAndy posted:

I know, but you besmirched my precious pro-graps and the amazing, increasing silliness as the dorkiness mestastizes. There were dudes dressed as Sayians at last year's Wrestlemania, man. In the ring.
Let's find some state that has almost no population and get the New Day into the legislature. Big E can gyrate to whip votes in the House.

My great feeling is that we are no longer in the Bad Timeline, but are instead in the loving Stupid Timeline.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Northjayhawk posted:

There aren't really many good things about the FBI's email poo poo, but one of the greatest is that its given Trump hope, and since they literally spend more on red MAGA hats than on polling, Trump will go into election night thinking he's going to be president.

If he gets wiped out, he'll be hilarious, and the tears online from his supporters will be glorious.
Didn't Trump not pay his pollster?

Which suggests something.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Keeshhound posted:

Honestly, even if the stars did align and McMullin got his shot, I don't believe for a second that enough republican senators would have the spine to deny Donald, given what'd happen to them next time they're up for election.
The House would immediately give it to Donald Trump if it goes to the House, yeah.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Are we sure of that? Are there a significant number of #nevertrumpers in the House?
I'm a lot more confident in Republicans favoring a SCOTUS seat or three over, you know, anything else, than I am in the moral forthrightness of House Republicans.


Instant Sunrise posted:

you were probably being flippant and making a joke there, but according to trump's FEC disclosures his campaign has literally spent more money on hats than they have on polling or direct mail.

in fact the line item that includes hats, shirts, signs, stickers, has more money spent on it than on field consulting and voter data
Oh, I know: in fact, this and their big final push plan to "get people on Talk Radio to give out talking points," is a lot of why I ain't sweating any poll tightening.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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rscott posted:

Why is it so surprising that a guy could be against torture but doesn't care about putting his fingers on the scale of the election?
Also, that was 12 years ago, didn't involve the expectation that the republicans would lose power as a result of it, didn't involve (((HILLARY CLINTON))), and so on.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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TyrantWD posted:

Look at the data. With the exception of states that really lean blue, like CO and VA, Hillary is at best matching 2012 numbers (NV) or running behind (FL, NC, OH, IA).
Ah, but this isn't what you were talking about. Here is what you said, in case you forgot in the fast paced world of modern posting:

TyrantWD posted:

The RNC has a GOTV campaign that is going toe to toe with whatever Hillary has.
What I have heard consistently is that Trump is putting pretty much zero effort into any GOTV efforts, and while there may well have been some RNC efforts - I am sure there isn't, like, absolutely nothing whatever anywhere in the Republican party apparatus - these do not seem to have come up nearly so much.

Do you have anything to back up this assertion, or do you wanna skip straight to the echo chamber stage in the flowchart :v:

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Captain Invictus posted:

What laws has Trump broken during his campaign that nobody has really bothered to punish him for? I recall folks mentioning certain harassment(?) laws he was violating with some of his declarations, that sort of thing. I'm just curious, was talking to an online associate who's voting for trump and he's mentioned that Hillary should be in jail for the stuff in the emails, but if that were the case they'd have nailed her to the wall already.
He's encouraged people to violate some kind of RNC consent decree which I don't fully understand but basically means the Republicans can't recruit off-duty cops to go glower at black people at the polls. Which they did in the 70s. But racism is over, folks!

But I'd say the biggest explicit law breaking he's done is his repeated solicitation of foreign people for campaign funds. Now, the occasional email getting on his list through an automatic system is one thing, I imagine the law either explicitly allows, or the judge in question would agree, that some error is understandable. But it has been wide-spread and persistent, and definitely more than "a couple of folks here and there." It included, for one thing, Vicente Fox, former Pres. of Mexico.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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TyrantWD posted:

We have early voting data showing the Democrats trailing in Florida when they had already taken the lead by this point in 2012. They are down in NC compared to 2012 while the GOP is up. There was a strong showing in Nevada, but that has been decreasing.

There is no evidence outside of states that already lean Dem, like CO and VA, that Hillary's GOTV operation is doing better than or as well as Obama. Considering that the GOTV operation on the right is contained within the RNC and not the Trump campaign, this is particularly bad.
So you're saying the RNC GOTV operation is like the dark matter: Profoundly powerful, and vital to your model, but as yet unobserved by our instruments, save by its effect on the narrative? Intriguing

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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TyrantWD posted:

You are again choosing to ignore early voting data. Obama had pulled ahead in Florida by this point in 2012, the Democrats are still trailing this year. Democrats are trailing their 2012 numbers in NC (when they lost), the Republicans are doing better than 2012 in NC. We have data showing the Hillary GOTV advantage turning to to be more fiction that reality.
"We"? You got a tapeworm? I mean we could be high on our own farts but it seems like a lot of people disagree with your interpretation of the data here

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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rscott posted:

Paladins need 17CHA though, how did he make it in the first place?
Convincing the GM that Hillary had a 5 CHA so if you think about it he's already in the lead, hugely

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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Gyges posted:

We have no idea when Obama pulled ahead in 2012, because all anyone has are raw party registration ballot data.

Please post the vote totals from 4 years ago today if you have them though, that would be interesting. All I have are the final 2012 and 2008 numbers.
Don't you see, Hillary hasn't yet matched the final tallies with early voting, so she's obviously behind. Once you've accepted this we will move on to the next yet-more-tedious slice of how I am correct and you are not

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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rscott posted:

Maybe his character gets some kind of temporary cha boost when he defeats primary enemies
I think it's like dwarves, where dwarves are like -2 to non-dwarves due to being (((beardy))). Except in Trump's case it's more like he's +14 to racists. (Actually +14/88, but most systems don't use fractional charisma.)

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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

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A Winner is Jew posted:

You would think he would have stats that would make him more of a grand wizard though.
The sorcerous robes of the Kingdom of Kupa Keep will carry him to a grand klavern of victory!

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