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Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
Here's my draft analysis. I want this guy on OKC:

https://twitter.com/SBN_Ricky/status/863151334534643714

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Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Rick posted:

I dunno I think from everything available on him he might be pretty bad. He was great high school talent but he looked like he couldn't compete with college players in team USA and then suddenly decided to go overseas after that which is a pretty big red flag to me. Not being able to get on the floor in Australia that has some of the worst basketball in the world is another big warning sign.

I see. Welp, time to go All In on Hamidou Diallo.

ButtWolf posted:

How would you feel about Evans? Im an OSU homer so Im for it.

If they could swap 21+Chicago and/or Boston's 2nd rounders for 28-30 and another high 2nd, I'd be pretty content taking a swing at a Jawun Evans or Frank Jackson along with a Diallo-type project. I agree with metapod that nobody at 21 is going to have much of an impact. The guys mocked to OKC (Rabb, Kennard, Kurucs) just seem so blah that I'd rather take a few swings later in the draft.

I also think it's pretty likely that Presti trades 21 for a veteran and all my reading about Terrance Ferguson et al. is wasted.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
Shea Serrano and netw3rk are good, but the Ringer's Serious NBA Analysis has been incredibly disappointing.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Rick posted:


If all of Fox's skills bust he's on a plane to China. I wouldn't take either of them top 5.

From here on out I'm assuming Fox is the new Jonny Flynn.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
embiid forever

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
lakers, rigged, frozen envelope, etc. etc.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Metapod posted:

my work is done I have found the most thunderiest prospect in this draft and who I have my heart set on: Devin Robinson from Florida. I can rest easy now

Sam Presti likes to home in on one of the 3 following player profiles in the draft: overconfident point guard, athletic wing with extremely limited skill, disappointing white big.

I've got my money on athletic wing with no real skill set this time around. It seems like internet thunder fans are talking themselves into Semi Ojeleye, but I would prefer to go overconfident point guard.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

morestuff posted:

Is Kennard at least hideable on defense or is there a good chance he's unplayable

I went through this exact phase when everyone was mocking him to OKC @ 21 a month ago. I would say it gets better, but.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

kiimo posted:

How do you possibly show up in bad shape. This is the most important month of your life.

be 19

morestuff posted:

I mean we've entered the MIND GAMES portion of draft prep so it could just be them trying to goose up the value of the pick. We might take the player you want and not Ball, give us a yacht full of draft picks

Yeah, we're 10 days away, so now's the time to start engaging in all the smoke and mirrors moves to stimulate trade talks, gently caress with other front offices, et cetera et cetera. With the amount of teams enamored with Fox, there's no reason NOT to leak "hey actually we're gonna take him at 2" just to see what happens. If nothing happens, the Lakers take the best player available @ 2 and move on. If Sacramento or whoever makes an insane offer, then cool.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Metapod posted:

Tj leaf to okc makes no sense unless kanter is traded

I don't know that Kanter is tradeable, but his main value right now is playing power forward alongside Adams in the twin towers lineup, which is increasingly less valuable as teams match up with speedy stretch bigs to play him off the court. His other value is in racking up empty calorie buckets/rebounds for OKC's terrible second unit. His inability to pass out of a double or make a play for a teammate was a significant factor in the Thunder's inability to hang with Russ off the court. As I see it, the bench needs to be remade with two complementary goals in mind: 1.) add playmaking that will increase the value of Abrines and McDermott's shooting, and 2). move away from Kanter's postups, which teams defended pretty easily with hard double teams after the ASB last season. For all the talk of the Thunder's lack of shooting (dead last in 3pt%), it seems to me that the larger problem is that they desperately need players who can execute the offense and create looks for their shooters. Abrines, McDermott, Oladipo, Grant, and Sabonis are all catch and shoot players.

With that in mind, OKC has been working out a number of mid-1st round bigs and 2nd round wings. With Gibson likely departing, I wouldn't be surprised to see them use #21 on a big who complements Grant, Sabonis, and Adams, whether Kanter is traded or not. It basically looks like there will be a ton of skilled bigs available @ 21, and a few playmakers (Frank Jackson, Jawun Evans), who are more flawed, fringe first round guys. They need to address the total dearth of playmaking outside of Westbrook, but over-drafting Jawun Evans is kind of an inefficient use of their very limited resources.

TJ Leaf would be a BPA move at 21, and I'm fine with it given that he overlaps very little with any of the other bigs. Giles is also interesting there, but I suspect someone grabs him in the lottery. All the talk of Kennard seems overblown unless you're 100% certain he can shoot as well as Abrines and play better defense over the course of his rookie deal. I just don't see an effective way to use #21 to solve the bench's playmaking problem. That'll probably need to be a separate deal/pick/trade/use of a salary exception.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

morestuff posted:

I guess Boston likes Jackson after all

Only thing I can figure.

hachi machi let's get weird no need to wait until the 22nd

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

WhyteRyce posted:

:lol: this is all because the Sixers got to move up 2 spots for free because of Vlade's stupid rear end

The statue outside the Wells Fargo Center will not be Fultz or Embiid, but an elaborate Rube-Goldberg machine that begins with Carl Landry and Vlade.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Ainge hasn't done a good job of generating surplus value from non-lottery picks, but that's the default outcome for every team in the league. The only one of those that is real bad to me is RJ Hunter. If Ainge misses on 3-5 guys in the top 5, well then yeah, he's gone, but it's difficult to compare a GM's track record of picking in the top 5 to picking in the 20s.

In terms of the proposed trade, I guess I don't understand Josh Jackson's fit with Jaylen Brown on offense. I think Brown is probably going to better than Jackson at pretty much everything on offense in the half court, meaning Jackson's addition is mainly some transition buckets and better perimeter defense. Is there something else I'm missing?

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Rick posted:


Man what happened, OG Anuoby has fallen almost 10 spots in a week. Did someone find out his injury was worse?

He wasn't invited to the green room on draft night by the league, and then his DX spot fell from around 13 to 21. So depending on how much you believe the NBA is correctly guessing where guys are likely to go, that would seem to be the cause. I would be thrilled if OG was available at 21. Internet thunder fans seemingly want a Semi Ojeleye/Derek White older guy who can maybe play 12 minutes right away, but I'd be much happier taking a swing on Giles or Anunoby if they're available.

All that said, I'd be stunned if someone didn't take a swing on OG in the teens unless there is in fact secret injury info. A recurrent theme in most mock drafts I've seen is a ton of bigs being taken from 10-25. I suspect teams in that range will ultimately talk themselves into perimeter guys and combo forwards over the TJ Leaf and Justin Patton types.

Metapod posted:


e: on a different note, I'm not understanding why TJ Leaf is projected higher than DJ Wilson. Maybe I'm seeing things wrong but Wilson just seems better to me

I think Leaf's so versatile and skilled on offense that teams who already have a defensive-minded center (e.g. Turner on the Pacers) may see him as an ideal complement despite the physical limitations and defense. Anderson-Capela is a nice current example of what many teams are looking for. Wilson's more of a generic prospect who doesn't have the same offensive ceiling and is a full year older than Leaf.

Bush Did Outer Heaven fucked around with this message at 18:04 on Jun 18, 2017

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
Kurucs withdrew from the draft, Hawks U will have to find another amorphous wing to be their next enrollee.

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Kataphract posted:

The Pacers don't seem to be in a position to extort anyone. Paul George made it known as forcibly as possible that any team trying to acquire him would be just renting him for a year, depressing competing trade offers. As long as that is happening, it's the Lakers extorting the Pacers. Yes, they would like to get him now, because the future is always uncertain, but at the same time, they can afford to wait a lot more than the Pacers.


This argument doesn't address brolic's point, which is about the Lakers pursuing another max-level FA in 2018 to make the team competitive.

If the Lakers wait to acquire George in FA, they can renounce Randle and pretty much have 1 max space slot. They sign PG in 2018 and now the team is totally capped out with Paul George and a bunch of young players who may or may not be good and nothing else (Brook Lopez's bird rights I guess). If they acquire George now, they also inherit his bird rights, meaning they can clear some extra space by stretching or trading Clarkson and Deng, use space to sign some fantasy UFA like LeBron, and go over the cap to retain George next summer.

The Lakers have an impetus to trade for George right now because it gives them significant cap flexibility that they will not gain by signing him as a free agent. The Pacers know this, meaning that LA needs to put together a competitive offer beyond what they're offering so far (junk picks and bad young players). Other teams know this as well, so a risk-acceptant organization, like the Rockets, could take a short-term rental on George now and extort the Lakers at the deadline. The Lakers don't have the leverage we all assumed they did initially because waiting to acquire George means they have no chance at LeBron or any other max-level FA in 2018. I didn't understand this either until the Woj reporting came out yesterday about Magic wanting two max-level FAs.

Bush Did Outer Heaven fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Jun 21, 2017

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Kataphract posted:

Perhaps I misunderstood - my understanding was that George was to be one of the two maxes, and acquiring George now does give more flexibility with bird rights and an extra year to the contract. It's to their advantage to get George now, but only if the price isn't too high. If Magic essentially wants three max contracts with George as one of them and the only way to get that is by having George now, then I stand corrected on that front.

My understanding is that Magic and Rob (a budget software title from the 1990s) are looking to pair George with an all star in the summer of 2018. Trying to sign both George and another 30-35% max FA simultaneously would be extraordinarily difficult because of the sheer amount of space required. If the Lakers did nothing right now except make their draft selections, they would need upwards of 65 million in space to offer George or LeBron their max deals. To get there they would need to renounce everyone they can, and shed every salary except perhaps Lonzo, Zubac, and maybe their rookies. Even then they might be short. To the extent that this is possible (maybe tacking Ingram or future picks to Deng or Clarkson to move them), it would still not be desirable in terms of building a good team.

The less destructive strategy would involve giving up some assets now (but maybe not Ingram and multiple future picks) to acquire George. The path to a single max slot in the summer of 18, even with George's big ole cap hold, won't include stripping the entire roster bare and will be more palatable for that reason. That path could include more moderate steps, like renouncing Lopez and stretching Deng. Off the top of my head I don't know if it's possible to get to two 35% max spots with only George's cap hold and empty roster charge spots on the books.

Bush Did Outer Heaven fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Jun 21, 2017

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Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
cool overdrafting an athletic 19 year old with no actual skill.

Metapod posted:

I will NOT believe this

he's perry jones in a little man's body, someone slap the phone away from sam

Bush Did Outer Heaven fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Jun 22, 2017

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