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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Dejan Bimble posted:

Markelle Fultz looks much more like an NBA player than all the other top pg prospects
But who cares

What's important is that some team in the late second round is going to get Marko Gudurić, who's kind of like a 6'6 Serbian Goran Dragic without the ball handling. He's absolutely mastered the hop after the catch to get easy threes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xyq-UqNv0Js

Josh Jackson reminds me of a sort of combo of college MKG and Stanley Johnson, without the playmaking and with a jumpshot that's only sort of missed up and not completely awful. He has the same sort of heaviness as Stanley Johnson but he moves through defenders who should be in position to stop him

Decent cutter already too. Could be a bigger, stronger JJ Redick, which would be a very valuable guy.

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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Rick posted:

I'm going to make an effort to assemble a schedule and watch every single US prospect in at least one game if possible. Any must-watch games off the tops of people's heads?

Lottery prospect or like, guy who might get drafted?

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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straight up brolic posted:

Saw Jarrett Allen in person today. Really unique prospect but he needs to get so so much stronger to do anything in the league.

Similarly, I saw John Motley against WVU the other day and he looked like crap. Reminded me of Earl Clark, long and bouncy but no vision or awareness. Missed easy passes repeatedly and had basket tunnel vision. Not strong enough to finish through contact from WVU players who won't sniff the NBA. Only goes left, lazy rotator. Good hair game.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


How can he shoot 42% on 4 and half threes a game, but only shoot 67% from the line? That's either really weird or really troubling inasmuch as it makes me wonder if that long range shooting is repeatable.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Rick posted:

I was a bit confused as to why Johnathan Motley was ranked so low, and I think one thing I have finally accepted is the red flag of age. He had a monster all around game and knocked Texas's bigs off the floor, including Jarret Allen. Is that because he's a 21 year old who has had three years to work on his body? Like he's bigger than most college guys, but he's not NBA big. All things I guess draft watchers have to consider while watching a guy who just was absolutely dominant.

Jarrett Allen…I just didn't see 'it' but I guess in a game where someone is in constant foul trouble is useless so I'll try and find another.

Watch him in a bad game and the red flags are much more obvious. He can't shoot or pass, so if he's not the biggest or most athletic guy on the court he's not going to have any offense. He has the length and speed to be a good defender, but his court awareness is poor on both ends so he's going to struggle learning NBA defenses.

I watched his highlights from the Texas game and nothing but the garbage clean up is going to translate. He's not getting calls on those wild drives to the rim (or being allowed to go right over and over when he can't dribble left) and he's not backing guys down in the NBA. WVU and Kansas State chumped him in consecutive games just by being too strong for him to push around, and those aren't exactly huge teams.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Dwight's not really 6'10" either (nor was Hakeem) and everyone bites on every shot when they're young. I haven't watched him but that's not a disqualifier.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Declan MacManus posted:

At one point Isaiah Austin was considered a potential #1 draft pick, and Andrew Harrison was considered the top PG prospect for 2014 and a probable top 3 pick. There really isn't any way to tell

I distinctly remember years early jokes about the Shabazz Muhammad Sweepstakes, Ricky Rubio Sweepstakes, Harrison Barnes Sweepstakes, and Nerlens Noel Sweepstakes. I wonder how many of those kind of guys really would go #1 if high school guys could still declare (obviously not the situation with Rubio)

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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The Glumslinger posted:

They're 2 games out of the playoffs and just added a major talent. They will almost certainly make the playoffs

Eeeeeh. Denver is playing much better than earlier in the season and a big trade rarely gels immediately. It'll be close.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Rick posted:

Ugh. I don't think Ball is a good fit with the Lakers anyway even if they do keep their pick.

Yeah but that kind of attitude, confidence, swagger...he belongs under the bright lights of la la land...he's perfect, and Magic knows it...

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Lockback posted:

He's taken twice as many FTs as 3s so far, and having such a low Free Throw % would suggest his 3pt mark is more a case of sample size than real range. His 3pt shooting is basically only 10 or 12 games where he has been hitting a great clip, it's really hard to tell if that's him getting better or just getting lucky.

Even bad NBA players have 10 game stretches where they hit everything they toss up. The fact that Jackson has only 30 total college games it's really fair to call that a red flag.

Maybe it's nothing, but it should be considered.

Are you trying to tell me James Johnson isn't a top 30 NBA player because I just don't know

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Criminal Minded posted:

There's no way you can drop Jackson all the way outside of the top five when he's so good at literally everything else

Not that they're comparable, but imagine the handwringing about Lebron's jumper if he were 18 today.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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EvanTH posted:

I mean, yeah, it's not comparable because if LeBron weren't LeBron in all other aspects his (below average) shooting would be a serious knock.

His shooting was not "below average" back then, it was straight up bad. It would be non stop hot takes about how he has no position, can't stretch the floor, etc. He'd still go 1st overall, Simmons did, but on the obverse of that no one would have even given a poo poo about Simmons's terrible shooting 20 years ago.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


And what, really, is the upper limit of improvement in the pros? I can think of a quite a few cases of guys who went from low 30s 3pt% to being sharpshooters, but only a small handful who dramatically improved at the line (Karl Malone notoriously went from a Shaq esque trash shooter in college and his rookie year to slightly below average, and Chris Webber and Tyson Chandler made big leaps from bad to above average, but not until they'd been in the league for nearly a decade). Really in either case you're talking probably a 10% upper limit realistically, which is a much bigger relative improvement from 3.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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straight up brolic posted:

Blake Griffin is 52% in year 2 to 75%

Griffin shot like 59% in college but that's still another good example. Rose is bizarre because these jumps are almost NEVER guards: almost every time it's a big man. I can't find anyone who's done the same work scraping colege bball reference and comparing and I don't have the time, but I think Rose is likely to be an extreme aberration.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Rick posted:

To me the question isn't if Jackson will learn to hit threes, but if he is still going to be able to get to the basket in the NBA.

Hitting threes would help a lot with that.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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straight up brolic posted:

Depending on fit I think he may actually still go #1 after the combine etc...teams will talk themselves into him

MKG is (was?) one of maybe three or four guys under 6'10 you can build a defense around. MKG with better offense and mechanics is a very enticing prospect.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Hand Row posted:

I am more curious what IT could even net you in a trade, especially if he is exploited in the playoffs.

He's handsome, marketable, and relatable, and plays exciting all offense ball. He's worth a lot of money to a team and can produce a great regular season record even if (if, because it hasn't really happened yet) he's an albatross in a playoff series. That's insanely valuable to most teams.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Declan MacManus posted:

too handsome

born in 1999 which makes me feel old

So so close to superstars born after 9/11. I can't wait.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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He has the brains and body to get around it with time, but I'm confident that cannot happen without a total shot rebuild.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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tanglewood1420 posted:

After watching UCLA-Kentucky last night, the first college game I watched all season, my definitive expert opinion:

Lonzo Ball - great vision and passer for a college player, good size and length for a 1, his jump shot is janky as gently caress and there's no way imho he will be able to get it off consistently enough and quick enough to better than average from the NBA three range. It also holds back his ability to create his own shot because he doesn't have great athleticism to drive by NBA guards (though he did look a reliable and creative finisher at the rim when he got in the paint) and his handle is no better than decent. If he had a smooth and fast release that isn't as much of a problem as JJ Reddick, Kyle Korver etc. show where you snap off shots on catch and shoots, coming off screens, quick stepbacks etc. but because his shot is messed up he won't be able to do that when guarded tightly by superior athletes. His vision, passing and size alone makes me think his floor is starter level point guard, but unless he remodels his shot I simply can't see him being all-star level. At the moment he's a 6'6" Ricky Rubio with better rim finishing and not quite as good defence - which is a nice player but not a franchise player.

De'Aaron Fox - looked great obviously, but the question is can he do it when he's not comfortably the most athletic player on the floor? He looked very quick and bouncy, but not quite Russell Westbrook/John Wall level to me, so he won't be able to rely solely on that in the NBA. Ran the pick and roll pretty well, his midrange game seemed alright, handle was generally solid but he did lose it a few times when driving. Kentucky don't really run anything approaching an NBA offense so tough to gauge how he could run the point. If he improves his outside shot and works on his dribbling skills then he will be a good 2-guard at the very least.

Malik Monk - I was very impressed by him. Shot well coming off screens, catch and shoots, and was able to create his own shot when in possession too with some nice stepbacks, step throughs and hop steps. Showed great range, his shot is fluid, quick and repeatable. Didn't get frustrated when early on he barely touched the ball. Took shots intelligently and wasn't just bombing it even when he got hot in the second half. In the current NBA climate a player with a good, rangy jump shot who can create their own shot is gold dust.

These are my snap judgement verdicts, please tell me how wrong I am.

Rubio's handle was otherworldly by the time he was 16. Ball doesn't have the ability to just get whereever he wants, whenever that Rubio always had. Ricky with better finishing is a Jason Kidd level player, which Ball is not, yet.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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mikeraskol posted:

I truly believe that Monk is more than that, he just didn't get a chance to show it much because of Fox/Briscoe. He's extremely athletic and there were a bunch of times where it looked like he could run an offense. I don't see why he can't be a Kyrie type of player.

That's an interesting comp IMO, cause on a team without the best player in the world who is also a top 10 passer and playmaker, I think Kyrie is something like Gilbert Arenas. He's already extremely similar. That's fine and even cool, but I think not a player who can lead a contender.

for real look at this poo poo they are almost indistinguishable.

DeimosRising fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Apr 6, 2017

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Kibner posted:

That is amazing. lol

I'd always thought they were similar on the court but never looked at the numbers. Probably the most unreal correspondence I've ever seen, same height, same weight, virtually every stat the same. Kyrie is slightly more accurate on a slightly worse shot selection, and the mirror is so perfect it results in the same TS%. Gil was healthier and played more minutes, but his teammates shot worse so he had a lower ast%. Same guy otherwise.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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He's extremely cool

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Rick posted:

Markkanen is maybe the most decisive player in the draft, but I stand by my opinion that he's gonna be one of the three best players in the draft.

But even with that decisiveness he's not going to fall to 11.

You mean divisive right because otherwise I don't know what any of this means

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Magic fired Rob Hennigan (no surprise) and for the moment Matt Lloyd is in charge. He's been the assistant under Hennigan and was in charge of college scouting for the Bulls before that. While he was head scout for the Bulls their four untraded draft picks were Rose, Gibson, Butler, and James Johnson, which is pretty drat good for the 1, 26, 30, and 16th picks respectively. Drafting hasn't really been the issue for Orlando though, and it's hard to tell how much of the team's propensity for bad panic trades and poor development is coming down from Alex Martin (I doubt DeVos is really involved).

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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ButtWolf posted:

I know virtually nothing about Brown or Jackson. Can one of them play the 2 or 4?

There's barely any difference between 2 and 3 and they should be able to play with one another if that's what you mean.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Fox at 2 yeesh

That shot is brutal

Post Kawhi, front offices believe they can turn every ugly catapult shot into a 40% three point stroke

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Dejan Bimble posted:

Oh no, that's the opposite of what I meant, Hartenstein has the cloned Dirk move. He can pop and fade for a jumper on one leg or two, like Dirk, anywhere. Markkanen is just a good shooter from any spot. It's a shame he's not power forward sized, though the it's cheaper to pay a power forward who protects the rim as well as a median center and is mobile, than to pay a standard center to do the same job.

Although, Cousins and Olynyk have demonstrated how easy you can make your offense for a lot of possessions if your center can make threes, and also how you really die on the offensive boards if your center is in the corner.

An even better example is Channing Frye on the teams that have used him correctly. His numbers roller coaster year to year because he's so incredibly effective but so limited. On Phoenix and Cleveland though, he just makes their offense unstoppable. You can't guard the rim from Nash/Amare/Lebron/Kyrie when your tallest guy has to be on the perimeter guarding a sentient willow tree

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Rick posted:

Yeah they started off calling Fultz a defensive stopper which is super silly. He has the physical tools to be maybe but he's an awful defender at the moment. I just didn't want to get nitpicky since I already post too much in this thread anyway.

No you don't

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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kiimo posted:

So you guys do know that Lonzo Ball is really really good, right? I mean I hate his family and he didn't play awesome against Kentucky but he schooled suckas all season long. I watched a lot of UCLA and he's going to win a lot of games for whatever team drafts him. I just hope it isn't the Lakers.

I and most people here have been so down on him, I'd like to hear a positive take. What do you see as his NBA level skills and role?

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Lockback posted:

I think there's risk all over at that place in the draft. I like Markkanen though, and you have me leaning back that way if he's there. If Isaac truly becomes Harrison Barnes +2 inches I'm coming back to you.

Barnes plus 2 inches is basically Rashard Lewis. Honestly if Lewis were reincarnated into the draft now he'd be worth a first overall.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Dejan Bimble posted:

Proto Rashard Lewis with better defensive instincts is going to go between 5-8 in this draft. If FSU had less selfish guards, who knows how high he'd be

tbf Lewis was raw as hell coming out of high school and iirc sucked for his first couple of years before just suddenly becoming a 17 ppg .400 3pt shooter overnight. The league just has so much better an idea of what to do with a guy who can shoot .400 on 7+ threes a game now, imagine that in place of LaMarcus on the Spurs.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Even if you believe he's allergic to the second round, a couple of second round outs would be manna from heaven in Philly. Health permitting, they're going to be good for a decade so it's not like even if he's a jinx it's closing their window.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Paul Zuvella posted:

I'm very curious why you don't think that Lonzo Ball won't be able to shoot open jumpers in the NBA. Do you think that his busted rear end shot will just magically stop working or something?

Also Fox is almost guaranteed to bust in my eyes so I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole. He's a tiny dude who can't shoot and weighs 170lbs. There is no way he is going to be able to functionally get to the rim in the nba.

Ball dominant point guards don't get a lot of assisted (and therefore not a lot of open) three pointers. He can hit in transition and against a broken D, but that's going to be a very small proportion of shots at the NBA level.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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dphi posted:

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/gallery/nba-draft-mock-projections-history-average-best-player-available-lakers-celtics-051817

Thought this was interesting, they took the averaged stats of each first round pick over the past 30 years and found a player that had averaged those same stats to give an expectation for what you're getting at that pick.

Not a very good method but some really funny results.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Rick posted:

The Lakers are a complete unknown at the moment. Their draft guru is still employed (for now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him join his dad in Golden State eventually, unless he's sticking around for a shot to run the Lakers when Johnson explodes). And Mitch Kupchak is possibly still advising them???? This has been reported but I don't know why he would??? He was at the combine but no one knows who he was working for. But anyway this would be 2/3 of a great drafting team that had no problem saying no to what the vocal, drooling Lakers fans wanted.

If everyone is in place and being allowed to do their job, the Lakers should still be pretty good at drafting. But for all we know Magic is just going to barge in and say he wants Lonzo and Frank Mason and that's that. Nobody knows what's going to happen.

Kupchak may be doing what McCloughan does in the NFL when he drinks his way out of a job, scouting as an independent contractor and selling his opinion to existing front offices.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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euphronius posted:

I'm talking myself into Isaac at 3. He seems like the perfect modern 4.

Weird defensive lineup, honestly a weird offensive one too but if Isaac and Saric can shoot, say, .37 or better from three that really takes the pressure off of Simmons. But Saric was bad from 3 his first year, and Isaac only shot 34% from the college line. There's no guarantee you're getting a Lewis/Turkoglu situation there in terms of spacing, which is what you'd need.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Skippin leg day though, can't jump with your arms Markelle

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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Dejan Bimble posted:

He is on a lot of steroids

Yeah maybe that's a misleading photo but he looks like he's put on a ridiculous amount of weight. That first overall money will buy a nice cycle I guess

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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

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french toast posted:

It's the angle he's standing at. Go look at photos of bodybuilders in candid shots, and the guy at end will always be standing at that angle dwarfing everyone in the picture while the person in the middle straight on looks smallest.

not gonna do that but ok 👌

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