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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


EvanTH posted:

Who's the best drafters last 5-10 years? Thunders? Spurs? Bucks?

Which is it? 5 or 10? Last 10 drafts includes Durant, Harden, Westbrook, and Ibaka for the Thunder, but also Curry, Thompson, and Green in the 2nd round for the Thunder. Both had big fuckups too though, like Anthony Randolph at 14 when the back half of the first round included Hibbert, Robin Lopez, Ryan Anderson, Courtney Lee, Serge Ibaka, Kosta Koufos, Nic Batum, AND George Hill (and Deandre in the second). Warriors also blew the Ekpe Udoh pick, even if you ignore the wings available at the time (see below) and say they were always gonna take a big, the next pick was Greg Monroe.

Clippers got Deandre super late and Blake, but they traded the first overall that became Kyrie, and narrowly missed a dynasty in 2010 when they chose first from a run of three consecutive small forwards: Al Farouq Aminu, Gordon Hayward, and Paul George. In that order. If they'd taken Paul George and then still gotten CP3 the next year, yikes. They haven't had a good draft since.

Wizards have drafted pretty well, but it's hard to forgive the Jan Vesely pick. Bucks may take it for the last 5 years, but if you go back 10 then you get huge fuckups like Yi Jianlian (next four bigs in the league were all productive players and one was a short lived star), Joe Alexander, and the double whammy of Jimmer over Klay and Kawhi.

Spurs are hard to grade. Of the two best guys they actually took with their own pick, one never played for them and the other was traded for Kawhi, which sort of counts in their favor? The only time they picked 20 or above it was in a garbage draft, but most of their famous talent for finding productive players on the scrap heap hasn't come from their drafts but from making some very judicious D league and low level free agent signings (Mills, Green, and Dedmon to name a few). They also took Cory Joseph one spot over Jimmy Butler. Imagine all those Gary Neal minutes being Jimmy Buckets minutes instead, and weep.

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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


morestuff posted:

I dunno, nailing top five picks (+Ibaka) is significantly less impressive to me than what the Warriors did. Plus Landry, Davis and Bledsoe are all picks they made on behalf of other teams as part of draft-night trades.

Has anyone seen any good scouting on Nkilitina somewhere other than DX?

There lots of teams that have had multiple top 5 picks in the last decade, but 0 others who took a hall of famer MVP candidate every single time. The picks immediately BEFORE the Thunder big 3? Oden, Mayo, Thabeet. Brutal. Grizzlies picked Conley, Mayo (sort of, they actually picked Love...), and Thabeet in the same situation those drafts. Wolves got Rubio, Wes Johnson, and Derrick Williams a couple of years later. Even granting that Durant was a no brainer, they could just as easily have followed up with DJ Augustin and Tyreke Evans.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


pubic works project posted:

God damnit you had to trigger me with this. The Pacers could have drafted nut-kicking Draymond Green in back end of the 1st instead of a loving Plumlee!!! gently caress YOU LARRY LEGEND!!!

Gobert was 27 in the first round. Giannis was 15. The Wolves traded #9 for the 14th and 21st. Logically, any team from 9 down could have had any two of Giannis, Gobert, and Green. In actual fact, by the time Gobert went at 27, Philly, Utah, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Cleveland had each picked twice. Any of these teams, or any team in the top 10, could currently be fielding a frontcourt of the only two serious DPoY candidates.

edit actually I"m crazy, Draymond was 2012 oops But any of those teams could easily have managed to draft both Giannis and Gobert which is arguably even better

DeimosRising fucked around with this message at 21:48 on May 26, 2017

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


iamsosmrt posted:

How much of the bad picks/teams would you guys attribute to bad selections versus bad coaching/training and environment?

I don't think there's any way for us to know. Like, is Chip Engelland really a miracle worker, or is Kawhi so smart and dedicated he would have fixed his jumper anywhere? Would he be Kawhi, or would he be something more like a healthier MKG? Would Giannis have blossomed on a team that tried to use him primarily at the 4? Or would Ricky Rubio be the best point guard in the league if he'd ended up in San Antonio? No way to even begin to know the answer

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Dejan Bimble posted:

I remember we tried our best to sort out an answer to "who goes from bad three or no three to three," and after combing b-ref it was nearly always someone who shot a good percentage on 2's and scored at an above average starterish rate.

Even so, that's more like a prerequisite than a foundation - most guys who fit the criteria probably still don't develop reliable NBA threes

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


There is a light coating of shed skin cells on athletic hand freak kids who have possibly not heard of basketball but also grew up poor and smart. Poor nerds are excellent learners

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


tanglewood1420 posted:

These are my favourite gambles in the draft outside the top ten or so. 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan and freakish agility that but picked up a basketball for the first time at age 15? Sign me up! 5% chance you get Hakeem, Giannis, Mutombo, Embiid, 95% chance you are laughed at for the next decade for picking him.

I feel like guys like that either turn into multiple all-star franchise centrepieces, or are out of the league inside three years. So at least they don't clog up your roster and cap room as a replacement level rotation player like a lot of failed top picks do.

Actually, like how Dirk's success meant for about five years around the turn of the century everyone was drafting 'next Dirk' tall Europeans with a jump shot types, maybe Giannis' success means the next couple of drafts are going to see it become fashionable to take high pick flyers on raw as gently caress international players.

The difference is all brain, those guys are all sharp as hell, Hashemite Thabeet looks surprised every time he looks down and his feet are still there

I'm leaving that autocorrect

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


MourningView posted:

He's too short to be an NBA big, has had serious conditioning issues in the recent past, isn't a good athlete, and won't be able to guard anyone. 2nd round seems about right

Kind of sounds like why Millsap fell, minus the conditioning and plus played tiny school competition. Not that I'm saying he'll turn into Millsap

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Randle would actually help their awful rebounding a lot, in the short term Randle and the 2 is probably a faster way to improve the team. But I just don't see trading out of a guy who looks like a sure thing into spot where you have to choose from amongst a smorgasbord of really good but really flawed looking guys and hope you don't gently caress up.


Or perhaps I'm crazy and Ainge's ASSET FETISH cannot be contained

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


If your evaluations have Fultz and Jackson on the same level, then you make that trade every time. Personally I think Fultz is a much surer bet but then again I haven't met the guys and seen them work out and so forth. Jackson and Brown could be a brutal defensive wing tandem in 2-4 years.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


JesusSinfulHands posted:

The Celtics better elicit a king's ransom from the Sixers in order to justify moving down from 1 to 3. At least the #3 pick plus two more first rounders at the minimum. Maybe 3 more

You are drastically overvaluing the pick. The only actual players taken at 1 with anywhere near that kind of value in the last ten years are Davis and Towns. That would be a gross overpay for Wall or Irving, who unlike a guy who we've never seen play in the NBA have a near 0 chance of busting out of the league after the trade.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


They could not get Paul George and Butler though, without giving up rotation players to match salary. Hayward is doable for sure alongside one or the other of PG and Butler.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


euphronius posted:

Terrence Ross

Hm. JR Smith you say...

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


That's actually a pretty cool list compared to most college students who would make the same claim but one imagines this guy would much prefer to play for Toronto, Phoenix, LAL, or Sacramento over any other teams. Do the Bucks still do a purple jersey?

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


milk milk lemonade posted:

How could Con Air possibly be in your top five unless you've only ever watched Michael Bay movies and stuff that had Shia Lebouff in it

Five movies undeniably better than Con Air that wouldn't crack my top five:

The Shining
The Godfather
Layer Cake
Guardians of the Galaxy
Bad Santa

His list is better than yours and the only problem problem with con air in his list is that if he's seen that, surely to Betsy he's seen Face/Off??

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Rick posted:

Getting a minor in film taught me that people under 25 who have a top 5 list that doesn't contain mostly fun movies are usually not fun to be around.

For sure.


milk milk lemonade posted:

Con Air is a below average Nicolas Cage film, which is really saying something.

Transformers is for literal retards and they're all horrible, horrible movies

Idgaf about the rest of his list

Edit: Face Off is 100x better than Con Air:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6ljb8hyyHXA

I wish John D'Amico's piece on how Bay (who has a grad degree in art and studied modernist painting alongside film) and his art team incorporate Italian cubism/futurism into the Transformers designs was still available for free use when people sling around ableist slurs like this but sadly it ain't.

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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


WhyteRyce posted:

They are both awesome movies as well but did it with less. They shouldn't be able to go toe to toe with Con Air and that cast but they both had something extra in it that Con Air was lacking

Peak Travolta and Cage playing each other as each other playing each other is full on mind blowing, and Face/Off has a cast of sneaky great bit players, Gina Gerson, Joan Allen, CCH Pounder, John Carrol Lynch.

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