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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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On a side note about Dan Skipper I keep seeing Myles Garrett getting swallowed up by a bunch of NFL quality OTs:

Dan Skipper - http://draftbreakdown.com/video/dan-skipper-vs-texas-am-2016/
Cam Robinson - http://draftbreakdown.com/video/cam-robinson-vs-texas-am-2016/
Conor McDermott - http://draftbreakdown.com/video/conor-mcdermott-vs-texas-am-2016/

Besides them he got beat up by Gregory Little who was a top 10 recruit for the Rebels this year and a future top 15 pick probably in the NFL. It's concerning considering Garrett's game is supposed to be unparalleled athleticism and he's getting beaten by a stiff like Conor McDermott. I'm starting to feel like Jon Allen or even Taco Charlton are showing more. There's also a guy named Charles Harris out of Missouri that has some really great tape but is flying under the radar because Mizzou blew this year. Either way I'm kind of concerned at this point but whatever.

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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Top ten looks like:

1. Cleveland Browns
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Chicago Bears
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. San Diego Chargers
7. New York Jets
8. Carolina Panthers
9. Cincinatti Bengals
10. Philadelphia Eagles

If Cam's as good as I think he is, and I don't usually anoint prospects this early, I could see him just going to the Browns first overall.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

It doesn't really matter who the Browns pick as the Browns are the kiss of bust

Well Joe Thomas and Alex Mack were both pretty outstanding picks. Joe Haden has had a good career and their 2015/2016 first rounders look promising. I think the Browns are just unlucky with the quality of talent available to them for skill positions. Week rear end 2007 QB draft lead to Brady Quinn and they drank the poison in 2014 with Manziel. Most of their bad first rounders of the early 2000's weren't egregious reaches either. I do fault them for taking Tim Couch over Donovan McNabb who even my 11 year old rear end knew was better.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Kirios posted:

Daltos...

I'm someone that follows college football and the NFL draft very well, and I came across something this evening that shocked me.

Bleacher Report (yes, yes, but read on)'s Matt Miller has QB Josh Allen, of Wyoming, going third overall to the Bears. I...admittedly have watched zero of him. At all. Mind giving me some thoughts as to why he's justified to go within the top 3?

He's a really good athlete but throws wobbly dart passes. Has a diagonal delivery like Rivers. Footworks there and I know Wyoming was running a mix of spread, designed runs, and roll outs to take advantage of his arm and legs.

Hype machine has been rising since he almost led that comeback against BYU. I imagine he'll test well at the combine.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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If I had the #1 pick this year I'd be grabbing Cam Robinson at this moment. Sure the combine will distinguish people but so far he's the only top pick I know of that consistently was elite all year.

I'd also be looking at Jon Allen over Garrett or Thomas if I wanted a safer pick too. Garrett is obviously the most physically gifted guy in the class but I'm still turned off on how he performed this year, even with the leg injuries.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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PrinceRandom posted:

Most teams ran away from him throughout the year but if my memory is right he was a stand out when they did run his way.

Most teams tend to run towards the strong side versus the weak side. Also here's some tape on him getting wrecked by Bama:

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/myles-garrett-vs-alabama-2016/

He's getting easily picked up by Robinson, Howard, Harris, and Warmack. 2:20 shows a good time where he's ran at and all he does is set the edge and let Harris blow right by him. Harris stand up blocks him at 2:40 in the open field. Get's picked up by a WR in the open field at 3:00. I mean this is a guy who is repeatedly just resorting to one armed rushes and getting stood up against guys in quality strength and conditioning programs.

Clowney got a bad rap his last year in college because he was injured and getting triple teamed at times, but he still tried. Look at 7:55 and see how gassed Garrett looks and how little effort he gives covering his zone on a broken play. 10:20 in he pads his stats on a busted play late in an already lost game.

He looks big and is capable of huge plays but you gotta hope he shows more effort when he hits the pro scene.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Well Watson almost cost Clemson that game. That and the refs.

Either way Mike Williams is going to fool us all again and make us draft a Mike Williams. He's so loving good.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Ehud posted:

does this mean every draft profile on Watson is going to use the word clutch now

Watson's receivers are clutch as gently caress. Watson in the that first half was uh oh. I mean I don't want to be completely down on Watson since he made some awesome throws on that last drive but he really didn't look that good for most of the game. Sailed some really easy passes and didn't look that great running the ball.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Intruder posted:

That was some truly special clock management but why is Watson to blame? Dabo could have called timeout

I meant the first half. I thought he looked quite good on the last drive but he still reminds me of Geno Smith

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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straight up brolic posted:

Hard to buy that someone can look bad passing for 420 yards, running for 45, and scoring 4 TDs with no TOs against one of the greatest CFB defenses.

If he "looked bad" it's because of what you already thought about him. He played an almost perfect game after the first couple of possessions.

He ran for 43 on 22 runs. That's excusable because Bama's D is built to destroy the college run game. Bama's pass defense, while great, isn't elite. Fitzpatrick is the one ballhawk on the team, everyone else are long DBs that can tackle competently. They weren't running into good QBs all year either.

Also don't get me wrong. When I think a prospect is bad I think of it on a NFL level. Watson's quite good at the collegiate level. He's somewhat smart with the football, has good legs, can hit open receivers, and played statistically great for the last two years in a high octane offense. He also displays happy feet, wings terrible balls at times, isn't that great of a runner for the elite NFL level, and benefits from an elite recruited team in a weaker conference. His passes just don't look that great and sail way too hard for the NFL. That's why I think he's bad, even though he produces.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Adams seems like he's going to be a FS or a roaming CB at the next level. Hooker is still super raw and might spend his first season in the NFL getting burnt. Peppers is certainly not a linebacker and anyone who wants to play him up there will probably be disappointed. Tabor also might shift to FS and could be pretty great at it. Desmond King is also another name to look out for as he isn't going to test great but could be one hell of a strong safety if he puts on more weight.

Anyway point is that the DBs aren't set in stone yet.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Still too early to tell but based on this season some top coverage LBs:

Tim Cunningham, Reuben Foster, Kendell Beckwith, Jarrad Davis, Ryan Anderson

Zone CBs:

Marlon Humphrey, Cordrea Tankersley, Adoree Jackson, Sidney Jones, Cameron Sutton

DE:

Tim Williams, Solomon Thomas, Derek Barnett, Carl Lawson, Charles Harris, Devonte Fields

Guards:

Roderick Johnson, Dion Dawkins, Tyrone Chowder, Zach Banner, Ethan Pocic

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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corn on the cop posted:

Where do you even start with rebuilding the 49ers? That roster is completely devoid of talent and no candidate worth a drat will want to work under the sniveling turd that is Jed York.

You can't draft a first-round quarterback to that team because they'll retire before their rookie contract is up.

You rebuild like all teams rebuild, by drafting a franchise QB #1

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Sure. Mahomes is fun as hell to watch, Kaaya seems to throw a good WCO game, and Kizer is a bit dumb and kind of a project but he throws a pretty pass. There's not a premier guy yet but there's a bunch of quality QBs this class that I wouldn't care much if the Giants spend a top 100 pick on.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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FizFashizzle posted:

nah gettleman loved Shaq because he's an athletic freak who can play 3 or 4 positions.

Apparently his SPARQ was average though so uh never mind

https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/580836065914785793

A few things about SPARQ. It's ran by Nike, the actual formula is protected but a fansite deduced that it's a multiplication of five factors, and I believe it docks you significantly if you don't run all the drills or perform poorly on one or more drills. Stands to reason, of course, but sometimes an athlete can still display elite ability even if not all facets of their game are elite. For instance, Shaq ran a 4.64 40, but had a 4.08 shuttle and 6.99 three cone. This mean's he's quick but not fast. Would you rather your linebacker have elite speed or elite agility?

I support SPARQ since it's based in sound logic and doesn't weight everything towards the 40 yard dash. It's just that you have to look at the meaning behind the numbers when calculating athleticism for all these formulas that companies and pundits come up with.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Diva Cupcake posted:

I'm seeing a ton of Cam Robinson would be a huge reach in the top half of the first talk. That disappoints me.

I know. He had one bad NCG game, and not even bad considering how elite that front seven of Clemson is. He spent all year perfectly handling top tier DEs and DTs like they were kids. I still have him pegged as an early candidate for the best player in the draft. An award I like to call the Leonard Williams Award in honor of a man who unfortunately went 6th overall to the New York Jets despite clearly being the best prospect in the draft.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Sataere posted:

Is he a LT or RT in the NFL? Isn't there a lot of chatter that he'll be an RT at the next level. That'll impact his stock for sure.

LT for sure.

Wiccan Wasteland posted:

I think there were only 2 other teams ahead of the Jets who could have drafted him and those teams were the Jags and Redskins.

Of course, the award simply exists for the consensus #1 who isn't picked #1. It's not awarded every year either.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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MrLogan posted:

Daltos - Please tell me about the top 3 or 4 RTs in the draft and if they will be around for pick #24. Thank you.

Pre-combine it's looking like these guys in the top 100 that might be RTs:

Roderick Johnson
Taylor Moton
Conor McDermott ~ kinda a tweener LG.
Avery Gennesy
Adam Bisnowaty

I like to think that the shuttle and 3-cone tends to dictate which side the player is tried out on first when they hit the starting line. Usually the o-line is so injured you have to end up in multiple spots anyway and that's why o-line coaches love versatile players. Also a lot of teams are looking for great pass blockers on the right side because LE's aren't slow anymore. We'll see more about these guys when the combine comes around.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:

Wentz was more-or-less considered the best QB prospect during the draft process with Goff sorta rising as people second-guessed towards the end. He wasn't unheralded at all

Nope.

In an obvious self-brag I called Wentz back in January going in the top 15 and people asked me if I was serious. Goff held the #1 pretty much all year with Wentz being in the top 100 due to the FCS dominance of NDSU. Remember that Wentz was heavily injured that year and didn't have the greatest of seasons either. Besides that you easily had guys like Paxton Lynch holding the #1 or #2 spot all year due to stupid FBS hype.

Then once the draft process hit it really looked like Goff ran away with the show in the combine. Then again Hackenberg also performed well in the throwing drills, but I digress.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Diva Cupcake posted:

It's way too early in the process to measure hype + team desperation.

It's amazing how many times I have to say this and people will still come into draft threads making claims and arguing about them when no one will be right come April.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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corn on the cop posted:

Beckham wasn't ranked highly because Zach Mettenberger can't throw a football. His stock exploded after scouts really dug into his tape.

Yeah I was really low on him and didn't like the pick at all at the time. I believe my top five at the time was Watkins - Evans - Cooks - Benjamin - Lee with Moncrief, Odell, Landry, and Allen all fighting for the sixth spot.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Diva Cupcake posted:

Quarterback
1. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

I believe my QB rankings that year were Bridgewater - Carr- Bortles - Manziel - Mettenberger/McCarron. Might have swapped Bortles and Carr right before the draft. I think even though Manziel busted I was still considering him a top 100 prospect which even that in retrospect was pretty bad.

That whole draft changed so many teams fates its astounding.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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You're all fools falling for the Mel Kiper clickbait.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Kalli posted:

How does Peppers compare to Tyrann Matthieu as far as skillset goes? He's the last super talented guy I remember who had that label of being a weird talent with no natural position.

I'm pretty certain his natural position is free safety but versatile players are never bad. Positions get really complex the deeper you go into x's and o's and NFL playbooks. Like a few years back the predator position got really popular which is just another name for a player without an assignment who is built like a linebacker. What I'm trying to say is it's better to look at what a prospect can or can't do and how that will fit your team because I'm pretty sure that's how teams draft in the NFL.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Cash was a UDFA? I had him ranked as my third best safety last year:

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3755666&userid=89848&perpage=40&pagenumber=5#post457523065

Also my offensive rankings:

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3755666&userid=89848&perpage=40&pagenumber=4#post457466696

I'm disappointed I didn't put Coleman and Shepard as 1/2.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Watson sucks if he falls to the 25th pick then that's a loving reach

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Chichevache posted:

Yeah, but how much of an improvement is he over Osweiler?

I still maintain that Osweiler needed more years experience before starting. When he was drafted out of ASU he needed to go back for another year before going to the pros to sit for a year. Instead he left early, sat for a year, started, then got into FA. So by my calendar last year should have been his first full starting year after purely absorbing experience from the bench and practice. I think he performed pretty lovely by 'rookie' standards but still has promise. I mean he can zing some passes. Watson just screams undersized Geno Smith to me.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Thoughts on the senior bowl:

- Really good WRs showed up. Particularly Zay Jones and Cooper Kupp.
- Really bad QBs showed up. Particularly all of them except Davis Webb who somehow won the MVP because he was the least lovely.
- Both defenses were really good. Lorenzo Jerome had some big plays but they were gimmes. Haason Reddick tore up the practices and also had a pretty good game. Damontae Kazee was an interesting CB that could go 2nd day now.
- Pumphrey returned punts because he's desperate to get in on this strong RB class

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Also they should really not let John Fox around young offensive players.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:

Hey Doltos, I'm seeing more & more mocks connecting the Steelers to JJ Watt's little brother TJ. What's the scoop on him?

Gumbel2Gumbel posted:

He plays hard-nosed football The Right Way

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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If you do I'd start it now because the goon draft is the slowest moving object observable in this universe

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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I really like Kaaya and have him as my best QB right now which is sad because I think he's a late 2nd rounder in most drafts.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

Drafting one is fine, but not in the 1st in 2017.

You realize the leading rusher in the NFL this year was taken 5th overall, right?

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Every year, every loving year we have to go through this:

The only position you never take in the first regardless of how good the player performs is kicker/punter. Everything else is completely up to the whims of fate and for every X position that does well in Y round, there's 20 others that you never hear about.

Draft RBs in the first.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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mastershakeman posted:

and the 2nd leading rusher , who didn't even start for 3 games, was in the 5th round. behind a way worse offensive line

Yeah I had Jordan Howard in fantasy :getin:

Also Chicago's line was rated #1 in DVOA this year for run blocking. I know, stats, but I think the Cowboy's offensive line isn't that heads above Chicago's when it comes to run blocking. Either way saying a fifth round RB did great this year ignores DeAndre Washington, Paul Perkins, Wendell Smallwood, Jonathan Williams, and Alex Collins, all of which didn't do nearly as well as Howard and cost the same resources to get on their respective teams.

And here's another question. If you knew the season Jordan Howard was going to have, would you take him before the 5th round? If yes, does the spot he's taken in even matter?

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Every time a RB is drafted in the first an angel gets his wings

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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McCaffrey is either roided up or is on some sorta super diet.

Super quick feet and a powerful runner. He runs too upright and might suffer from DMC problems, only worse because his upper body isn't huge. Smart and patient but also waits too long to hit holes sometimes which should punish him at the next level. He runs like Bell but isn't built like Bell.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Grittybeard posted:

Why so high on him and down on Fournette out of curiosity?

e: I understand being high on Cook for sure (this is a great RB draft), just not being higher on him than the guy who seems to have been built in a lab to be the perfect RB prospect.

Dunno, people are stupid and knee-jerky. They also still love to condemn or praise athletes before the combine or personal workouts even happen. I suspect a lot of it has to do with football rivalries. Like I talk poo poo about WVU prospects a lot because I hate WVU.

Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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I'll love it if the NCAA's all time leading rusher doesn't even get drafted.

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Doltos
Dec 28, 2005

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Chubbs a dummy that stayed a year too long and also had a really bad leg injury that sapped most of his explosiveness that he showed his sophomore campaign. He's JAG now, which is a shame because he was smoking people when he took over for Gurley.

Gallman was a heralded recruit because of his size but he runs too tall and isn't very good at football.

Freeman's a perfectly fine runner, he's just a bit of a plodder. Should be a reliable guy in the NFL. I also thought he had another year of eligibility and is leaving early?

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