Realistically, how far away are we from human level AI?

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Realistically, how far away are we from human level AI?

TheNakedFantastic: Sep 22, 2006; LITERAL WHITE SUPREMACIST

I don't think the centuries answer is very useful, it's a non answer that should just be "we don't know" instead of a timeline. If you look at the history of AI it's actually made very large amounts of progress despite several "winters" since the field began, especially recently. We're already on the verge (i.e. very good performance in a decade) of AI being competent enough to handle real world physical tasks (driving, locomotion, physical manipulation). Neural networks and machine learning have also been rapidly advancing in a way no one predicted even a decade ago. How close any of this puts us to human level AI isn't understood but I think people are being a bit too dismissive of a field that's less than a century old.

# ¿ Nov 27, 2016 18:16

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# ¿ May 14, 2024 15:28

TheNakedFantastic: Sep 22, 2006; LITERAL WHITE SUPREMACIST

INH5 posted:

Just from memory + 15 minutes of research on Wikipedia:

Unless I missed something in my research, jet airliners basically didn't exist in 1956 but were very common in 1986.

Office workers still mostly used typewriters in 1956. By 1986, typewriters had largely been replaced by computers and dedicated electronic word processors.

In terms of communication technology, while I can't say for sure because I didn't exist back then, pagers and answering machines (the latter existed in 1956, but became much more common by 1986) must have had an impact at least comparable to social media. Also, from what I gather, telegraph technologies greatly improved over the period. My mother is a computer programmer who started working in the 1970s, and she told me once that back then big companies had access to Telex systems that were pretty much equivalent to email.

Portable audio recorders and players were expensive and pretty much only used by professional reporters in 1956. By 1986, portable cassette players/recorders were extremely common. I've used both an Ipod and an actual 1980s Walkman, so I can say from experience that the difference between them in terms of user experience isn't all that great.

Cable TV, VCRs, and video rental stores all came into existence between 1956 and 1986. Again, I didn't exist back then, but the impact on personal entertainment must have been at least comparable to Tivo, Netflix, and Amazon Instant.

Plus there's this.

I'm not saying that I agree with Blue Star re: technological stagnation in general (I'd have to do a lot more research before I'd feel comfortable making a verdict), but 1956-1986 saw the introduction or at least widespread adoption of plenty of revolutionary technologies.

In general the most profound changes the last couple of decades revolve around the internet and less tangible material shifts. We're living through one of the largest social and economic upheavals in human history but these changes are more subtle than a new electronic media player you can hold in your hand.

# ¿ Nov 29, 2016 13:24

TheNakedFantastic: Sep 22, 2006; LITERAL WHITE SUPREMACIST

Cingulate posted:

Go take a bus. It will be a completely different world than what the same thing would have been 20 years ago. Everyone is looking at a tiny supercomputer in their hands, communicating with somebody either a few miles away, or possibly halfway around the globe. Everyone. This is extremely different from a bus ride in 1995.

Well that's true, but people are using those computers because of the internet.

# ¿ Nov 29, 2016 13:37

TheNakedFantastic: Sep 22, 2006; LITERAL WHITE SUPREMACIST

steinrokkan posted:

People started using mobile Internet because they already had their phones, and advanced technology gave them enough power to do additional tasks on them. And the internet is developing and changing because people use smartphones as much as smartphones and gadgets are changing to make an ever greater use of the internet.

Yes they are being simultaneously developed and co dependent, but the biggest impact on society is from the internet, not the additional power of modern cellphones. I'm not saying society isn't still rapidly materially advancing but if we want to consider what's having the largest impact on society it's the social aspect.

# ¿ Nov 29, 2016 13:49

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