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Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

What we think the future will be like is probably about as accurate as what people in 1950s thought the future would be like: grossly, sometimes comically inaccurate.

We can reasonably predict what 2021 will look like. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess.

Slow News Day fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Nov 28, 2016

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Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Blue Star posted:

I dont think that's true. I think it's obvious that technological progress is slowing down and will probably stagnate in our lifetimes. Compare the first half of the 20th century to the second half: the first half saw way more progress. Cars, airplanes, electric power, nuclear energy, radio, telephones, television, x-rays, and much more all came out in the period between 1900 and 1950, give or take. But now look at the period from 1950 to 2000, there's way less progress. Yeah computers got smaller and faster, we got video games and cell phones and internet stuff. Visual effects in movies got better. And...that's about it.

The only really significant progress has been in computer chips. But now even that is ending, since Moore's Law will stop soon if it hasn't already. All the heady progress in computers that has been made over the past few decades will now stop. Computers in 30 years will probably be barely any better than computers today. Video game graphics probably aren't going to get any better. We're probably never going to be able to emulate a mammalian brain, even that of a mouse, let alone a human. And other fields, such as medicine, will be even slower. Drug development has slowed down dramatically.

2016 is basically 1986 except we got tablets and cellphones and social media. I think 2046 will be like 2016 almost exactly, at least technology-wise.

You're wrong. Take a look at this. Yes, it's from "singularityhub dot com" but it makes a lot of good points and has charts and stuff.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

What media? What media in the 80s was promising flying cars?

Right off the top of my head, Back to the Future is probably the most popular and well-known example, with Emmett Brown's famous line, "Roads? Where we are going, we don't need roads!"

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