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suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

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Cingulate posted:

We've been making massive gains in AI recently - the most noteworthy developments being multilayer networks running on GPUs. If you scale this linearly (from 2010 to 2015), we're basically looking at superhuman AI within a decade or 3. The question is, does linear hold? We're observing problem solving capability so far does not scale linearly, but more something like exponentially. This actually leaves open the possibility that we can build a near-human level AI running on a massive supercomputer in 2030, but won't be able to build a 2x human level AI with all the world's ressources in 2040 still, not to speak of Skynet-level orders-of-magnitude-beyond-any-humans.

"AI-go-foom" people are sold on the idea that once you have an AI that's around human levels, it will trivially be able to improve itself. But then, we already have 7 billion human level intelligences around, and they haven't really found a way to come up with anything smarter than humans. And we know with computers, it's not as simple as adding more Hz to make it faster; a quad core isn't 4x as fast.

On the other hand,

Being good at very specific tasks is certainly within the realm of possibility within decades or even years. We already have plenty of art-creating AI, and I doubt an AI bot trained to speak like a continental philosopher is harder than training it to filter spam with 50% better accuracy than today's machines.

What's open for debate, or even very much doubtful, is something that improves itself at near-linear, or even superlinear, speed.

What do you mean by "massive gains"? How do you quantify how close an AI is to becoming superhuman (as you pointed out, giving the AI an arbitrary number of extra processors doesn't make it superhuman by itself)? How do you define superhuman?

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suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

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Owlofcreamcheese posted:

It seems perfectly fine to claim different designs for information processing are better or worse at different things.And no design is just usable for everything.

Well, the idea is to have a general and very versatile AI that can do everything somewhat worse than specialised AI and then just have it run on a higher-clocked CPU to make it work.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

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Reveilled posted:

There's no reason to suppose that a "human-level AI" will have emotions or opinions or empathy or ethics. It could have motivations, but those motivations could be utterly alien to us.

:ssh: please don't tell this to robutt ethicists who are already calling for the protection of glorified realdolls humanlike androids against rape by neckbearded basement dwellers. Their heads might explode when they realise they're not actually doing something useful.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

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Rush Limbo posted:

Considering that AI requires so much computational power to tackle the problem of, say, stairs and even then fucks it up with enough regularity to be practically useless unless, for example, you devote 100% of its effort for it to incredibly slowly tackle the problem.

Meanwhile, even your average human intelligence has mastered the art of walking down the stairs, thinking of where they're going, and talking at the same time on an instinctual level to the point where it's not even consciously thought about.

How advanced are the state of the art stair climbing robots anyway (basically how many hundred sensors and negative feedback loops depending on those sensors)? Biologically speaking, climbing stairs isn't just a stereotyped motion but additionally needs to constantly adjust for minor imbalances in the inherently unstable human body as well as minor changes in the flatness and elasticity of the ground and poo poo. Anything that can measure only things like the angle between the femur and tibia and the overall body tilt, but not the forces acting on each segment of the leg and foot would be expected to fail miserably. I won't say no amount of AI can control a robot with dumb legs, but I definitely expect that putting a literal bucketload of cheap stretch sensors and poo poo into the leg makes the job orders of magnitude easier.

suck my woke dick fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Nov 28, 2016

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

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Reveilled posted:

I can't say I've ever met anybody like this to tell them. Do they really exist? The mainstream of AI ethics right now seems to be debating how big of a threat to humanity a general intelligence could be, rather than the ethical implications of loving one.

Eh. I expect they're probably not actually representative of all AI ethics as a field, but much like the well known loudmouths in other fields they're very busy writing terrible guest articles and being interviewed for news website sci/tech and culture sections to the point where they drown out everything else.

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Oct 10, 2012

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Owlofcreamcheese posted:

I honestly think "AI" is more of a looks thing than anything meaningful. If you had a truly aware creature but it responded via database queries no one would ever rank it as AI even if it could do literally every single thing a human could but I bet if you stuck a 1990s chatbot in a realistic looking robot with a nice voice you'd have people arguing it deserves rights.

People already are.

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Oct 10, 2012

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Senor Tron posted:

Industrial scale cloning is becoming a thing, genetically engineered crops are a fact of life rather than a terrifying novelty, We have had a continually manned outpost in orbit for fifteen years. While manned spaceflight has regressed beyond the space station, in terms of probes technology has made a leap forward. Rather than short lived landers there are mobile robotic rovers on Mars, one of which has been operating continuously for over a decade. Dismissing tablets and cellphones like that is a mistake, in the first world almost every individual has easy and cheap access to the sum total of human knowledge.

Communication is a magnitude easier. Twenty years ago, international calls were expensive, I remember my mum having to ration herself to one Sunday evening call home to her sisters each week. Now you can contact someone on the other side of the planet as much as you want for no more than the cost of your monthly internet bill, or just use one of the widespread free wifi spots.

Remember science fiction with videophones on the wall? They are now a mundane fact of life.

3d printing is rapidly becoming a serious technology, school students have access to industrial prototyping tools that would have been unimaginable thirty years ago, and then when they want to do something with that work they can with pocket change buy something as powerful as a 1980's supercomputer to be the brains for it.

Electric vehicles have become big business. In many areas, house roofs are covered with cheap solar panels.

While not cured, cancer treatment and survival rates have drastically increased. If caught early, HIV can be controlled to the point where it isn't the death sentence it once was.

Virtual reality is now a consumer technology. Never mind the high end, cheap smartphone headsets give an experience better than that available at any cost in the 1980's. Those same supercomputers in our pockets have AR capabilities unimaginable in the 1980's. Ever used Google Translate? You can point your device at text in almost any language, and see it instantly changed to the language of your choice. Not just translated, actually visually changed to become something you can read.

While living through the changes it's easy to overlook everything that is happening in the world, but I would argue the 1986 to 2016 difference is much larger than the 1956 to 1986 one. I mean what changed for the average person between 1956 and 1986 in terms of new technology? Televisions got better, audio players got smaller, phones got a bit better and computers shrank to where people could have them in their homes for only a few hundred dollars, but if you are talking about day to day life that period was more of an evolution whereas the information age has been a revolution.

However, because the western middle class is becoming relatively poorer compared to the western upper class, people feel like they are getting the same poo poo as in 1980 except slightly smaller/faster and made in China.

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Oct 10, 2012

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ShredsYouSay posted:

Can't this question best be answered by that great scholarly monograph "Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality"?

:trumppop: well played

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Oct 10, 2012

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Condiv posted:

no, but my argument has never been that computers can't generate good or entertaining things. they just can't generate anything with meaning without a human behind them.

Define meaning
it's a meaningless concept :v: :bsdsnype:

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Oct 10, 2012

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Condiv posted:

about what, its work having meaning? well, it would have purpose (to deceive foolish humans into thinking it created a meaningful work) and therefore meaning.

Does a screwdriver have meaning?

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Oct 10, 2012

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Condiv posted:

i'm getting huffy because it's annoying to argue against people who are misrepresenting your argument. why again did you say i was pretending that meaning was some physical property?

If meaning depends solely on the creator and has no physical effect on the product, then it is meaningless.

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