|
Everything i've heard on the subject from people who know what theyre talking about has said that it's probably centuries away. We dont even understand our own intelligence yet.
|
#
¿
Nov 27, 2016 17:28
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 14, 2024 14:12 |
|
|
Seriously, human-like AI isn't going to happen in our lifetimes. Even today's newborns arent going to see it in their lifetimes. This is a silly discussion. Technology isnt accelerating, it's actually slowing down. The AIs that exist today are the sort of thing that makes Google and Amazon slightly easier to use. Thats pretty much it. Even more modest stuff like selfdriving cars are hyped up bullshit. None of that poo poo is going to happen.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 28, 2016 01:44
|
|
|
enraged_camel posted:What we think the future will be like is probably about as accurate as what people in 1950s thought the future would be like: grossly, sometimes comically inaccurate. I dont think that's true. I think it's obvious that technological progress is slowing down and will probably stagnate in our lifetimes. Compare the first half of the 20th century to the second half: the first half saw way more progress. Cars, airplanes, electric power, nuclear energy, radio, telephones, television, x-rays, and much more all came out in the period between 1900 and 1950, give or take. But now look at the period from 1950 to 2000, there's way less progress. Yeah computers got smaller and faster, we got video games and cell phones and internet stuff. Visual effects in movies got better. And...that's about it. The only really significant progress has been in computer chips. But now even that is ending, since Moore's Law will stop soon if it hasn't already. All the heady progress in computers that has been made over the past few decades will now stop. Computers in 30 years will probably be barely any better than computers today. Video game graphics probably aren't going to get any better. We're probably never going to be able to emulate a mammalian brain, even that of a mouse, let alone a human. And other fields, such as medicine, will be even slower. Drug development has slowed down dramatically. 2016 is basically 1986 except we got tablets and cellphones and social media. I think 2046 will be like 2016 almost exactly, at least technology-wise.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 28, 2016 23:58
|
|