Automation Thread: Imagine johnny 5 squashing your job, forever

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Automation Thread: Imagine johnny 5 squashing your job, forever

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

There thing about automating white collar work definitely strikes true for the company I work for. We've expanded from 150 to 260 employees over the last couple years, and maybe five of those hires aren't production crew or supervisors. Many of the "white collar" office staff wear multiple hats, I'm nominally a QA inspector but I also do IT, purchasing, quoting, job planning, etc. Modern software automates much of the individual tasks required to fulfill those roles, which is good if you're a young guy who is good with computers but pretty bad for everyone else.
The funny part is we do a lot of cnc machining (about to fill another 60k sqft with machines) but basically none of it is automated. Nothing is palletized with automatic loaders that would move a job from position to position. Most of the machine operators operate one machine at a time. Apparently it's cheaper to hire a guy or a gal for $10/hr to load blocks and push the start button and have a real machinist for every 20 or so operators to solve problems with the mills and hope your inspection department catches the poo poo parts.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 02:20

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 06:25

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

SaTaMaS posted:

um...cnc...is...automation?

that's the whole point, more productivity with fewer workers

You can have three or four guys running 3 axis machines each with a different position or setup, or you can have one guy running all four machines with robots moving the parts from machine to machine (or you can spend a million bucks on a 5 axis machine and do it in one setup)

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 04:43

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

SaTaMaS posted:

Yeah but there are still shops running manual machines and blaming China for stealing all their jerbs instead of investing in CNC machines and learning how to use them.

There isn't anyone left in the United States doing aerospace machining that's using manual mills for their main production. You wouldn't be able to keep your tolerances in spec on anything complex and actually produce any volume of parts. We run one type of parts on manual mills and its because they're parts that haven't changed meaningfully since the 90s.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 13:54

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

SaTaMaS posted:

I'm not talking about the big manufacturers, I'm talking about the hundreds of thousands of guys doing contract work out of their garages and small businesses. I'm not sure exactly how many of them are still using manual machines, but if everyone was using the sorts of CNC techniques you were describing companies in the US wouldn't be so desperate for manufacturing talent.

Who says the US is desperate for manufacturing talent in the first place? US companies may act like they're facing a skills shortage but that's largely because they don't want to pay wages. That's the other big thing about automation, the capital expenses can be pretty big up front but since they're capital you can write the depreciation off in a manner that is advantageous for your taxes.

# ¿ Dec 6, 2016 16:10

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Tasmantor posted:

I am a programmer and setter. I run 5 machines most days and 6 on occasions. I can do this because it gets easier to "program" ever year. Right now you can get software that shits out a program from a CAD model for less than a grand a year. It's free if you are using it for education or personal use.

5 axis machines are not a million dollars. Unless they are huge.

Also $35 an hour would be nice but that's my poo poo employer not the market.

Mazak variaxis i-800s with all the SmoothControl add ons

# ¿ Dec 7, 2016 23:58

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Foxfire_ posted:

Machinist chat:

I feel semi-qualified to comment since I order parts from both US and China. In my experience, it would be super weird for any shop to be making things on a manual mill. Everywhere in both countries expects to be doing CNC work and starting from CAD files, not prints. The only place who's ever wanted a print is a little shop in SF that had a waterjet that took some bizarre input format that was easier for them to make from a drawing instead of a CAD file, but it was still computer controlled when it ran.

Based on turnaround times and design restrictions, I'm pretty sure the US prototyping shop we usually use is set up for lights-out manufacturing and a machinist is just checking a mostly automated toolpath, then running it unattended overnight. The Chinese one has people running the machines.

US:
- Faster
- Closer tolerances

China:
- Takes at least 5 days to get stuff
- Stuff you don't bug them about can be wrong (i.e. if you don't make a point of asking, you can get surfaces that aren't as square as speced)
- Half/quarter of the price, less if you feel like haggling (pretty sure they're still ripping us off compared to what they would charge domestically)
- You can get weird custom things that the US workflow isn't set up for. For example, we wanted a fine diamond polish on the inside of an injection mold and the US company couldn't do it. I think the Chinese one just had a guy spend a day polishing.

idk what to tell you man but we just bought two more 50 year old Bridgeports to run 777-X drag links on, the models may be cad but the machines sure as hell aren't

e: and this is a company that has more portable cmms than QA inspectors to use them so it's not like we're technology adverse

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 14:06

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

SaTaMaS posted:

Yes I realize that, but on the other hand there's a record low employment participation rate. Getting paid $35/hour for what people in Germany get paid $55/hour for isn't great, but it's much more than the average salary and it doesn't even require a 4-year degree.

Not too many people getting $35/hr to be a CNC programmer w/o a degree unless they have 20 years of experience, it's closer to 40k for 5 years of mastercam and catia experience from what I have seen

# ¿ Dec 8, 2016 18:56

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Doctor Malaver posted:

I work as a project manager and I can't even begin to imagine how my job could be automated. I have to be a psychologist and a product designer and make decisions from marketing to technology. Either I'm deluding myself or the companies that I've been working for are too small and chaotic for that kind of automation.

Do you use an ERP or MRP software suite? If so large portions of your job have already been automated

# ¿ Dec 23, 2016 17:47

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

You do realize the labor participation rate is lower right now than at any time since (white) women entered the workforce
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

62.8% down from the peak of 67% right before the tech bubble popped the first time. The interesting thing to notice is that since the 2000 peak, the rate has been steady at best, with economic recessions shedding workers from the labor pool who are not replaced. The difference between the new "normal" of the post GFC recovery and bush's second term is about 3% or something like 4.5 million workers.

There are other reasons for the decline like the exit of baby boomers from the job market en masse but that only explains some of the decline. There are millions of people right now, in your environment of "full employment" who can not find a job.

rscott fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Dec 26, 2016

# ¿ Dec 26, 2016 15:36

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Discouraged workers are not part of the labor force either

# ¿ Dec 26, 2016 16:19

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

And robots were the secret cause of this and the giant economic crash in 2008 was just a cover story to hide the robots or something?

Jesus loving Christ you are dumb as hell, the whole point is that seven years later there are less workers in your "full employment" scenario despite the fact that the population of United States has increased largely through the immigration of working age adults in that time frame.

# ¿ Dec 26, 2016 16:23

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

SpaceCadetBob posted:

Well if you goons are looking for long term job security from the singularity, may I recommend getting into a skilled mechanical construction trade? Skilled plumbers, electricians, HVAC, and fire protection installers are facing significant labor shortages in the coming years. Furthermore they are pretty much automation proof for the foreseeable future due to a combination of needing both organic problem solving abilities, and physical dexterity in complex and ever changing 3D environments.

This is, like all liberal solutions at the end of the day, an individual solution to a systemic problem.

# ¿ Dec 27, 2016 16:49

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

I'm sorry that you don't know what liberalism is but since you're posting on this forum I assume you have access to the Internet and can look it up, maybe you should do that!

# ¿ Dec 27, 2016 17:30

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Not neoliberalism, liberalism in general. This is literally an issue of class politics at its core.

# ¿ Dec 27, 2016 18:06

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Tei posted:

True that. I heard mobile computing is very popular in places like Africa, where maybe building a cable grid would be to complex and pointless, while setting the antena in some places and selling cheap phones make more sense for everyone involved.

Anyway people have a computer in their pants but all they do is look at cat photos and reply to their aunt about a baby photo.

What has really changed on the world with people having all that computing power in their pockets?

The distributive productive aspect of social media has basically killed traditional journalism and print media, the consequences are writ large in who is the president elect of the United States of America

# ¿ Dec 28, 2016 16:05

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Main Paineframe posted:

Not really. Crowdsourced news is really good at some things, like ensuring that many police shootings and protests are livestream, but really bad at stuff like investigative pieces.

I didn't say it was a good thing, the double edged sword is as you describe. Fact remains most news doesn't come from traditional media sources anymore. The ubiquity of our mobile devices have allowed social media sources to supplant TV and print media in a way that neither could do to each other.

# ¿ Dec 28, 2016 16:24

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Solkanar512 posted:

I think my biggest concern about autonomous cars (and drones for that matter) isn't the technology but rather the culture of the companies making them.

These companies are accustomed to exponential growth, pushing the boundaries, skirting regulations, issuing patches after release and so on. That's fine for software. Yet it sets up some really lovely attitudes, habits and expectations when it comes to designing things that will contain people and transport them at speed in close proximity with others.

I work in aerospace, and I like to remind my friends in tech that when one of my company's products crash, it's on the front page of every major newspaper in the world. The majority of the regulations we follow designing, building or maintaining our products were made because someone died. There are museums and memorials scattered all over the world dedicated to those who died because someone hosed up. One museum at Haneda Airport contains personal effects from the victims of JAL Flight 123, including handwritten farewell notes from victims to their families. 520 people died, as well as a maintenance manager and an engineer who both committed suicide for signing off on the faulty repair. I'm told that JAL employees visit each year to honor those who were lost and to remember why you don't cut corners.

I know that cars aren't airplanes, but unlike everything else in tech, loving up/going cheap/ignoring regulations will get people killed and the attitudes of tech employees just aren't instilling me with much confidence.

Personally I'm looking forward to Trump privatizing the FAA so we can get some of these job killing regulations removed, everyone knows QA is just a cost center!

# ¿ Jan 7, 2017 14:24

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Is there even a unified 3rd party test to certify driver aids and autopilots? Until such legislation and legal framework is in place it's really irresponsible to just throw poo poo out there, especially with the advertising complete with 8 point font disclaimer about the effacy or performance.

# ¿ Jan 13, 2017 01:13

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

Solkanar512 posted:

That's fair. I was mostly irritated that they clearly didn't understand the system they wanted to jump into. For insurance, they bragged about having a former astronaut on their team as one of the reasons for an exemption. Not anything about what that experience meant, just something like "we even have an astronaut on our team!!" Another reason given was that they would be changing and testing new parts so often they didn't have the time to go through any of the FAA inspections or record keeping or whatever.

For those who aren't familiar, the amount of inspecting the FAA does is (very simply) based on the experience of the manufacturer and the newness of the parts.

It was like reading a court motion from pro se lawyer - it's clear they had a lot to learn.

Oh cool they want to skip first article processes because they're iterating designs so quickly? That really gives me a lot of faith in their QA process in general.

# ¿ Jan 14, 2017 16:44

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 06:25

rscott: Dec 10, 2009

The marginal risk factor has to be weighed against the equally marginal utility provided delivering packages with drones

# ¿ Jan 15, 2017 02:55

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Automation Thread: Imagine johnny 5 squashing your job, forever