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Xae
Jan 19, 2005

silence_kit posted:

It's actually way cheaper to automate semi-skilled white collar jobs where the only inputs and outputs are information than it is to automate some blue-collar work where complicated, costly, high-maintenance mechanical contraptions are needed to do certain types of assembly.

Confirm.

It took me about 2-3 months to automate a process it that had 4 full time Business Analysts running it. I did it in my spare time of being the 5th person running the process.

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Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Cicero posted:

To be fair, by this definition there's basically never a shortage of anything anywhere. Like you couldn't say "there's a shortage of [game console] at launch, it's sold out at stores" because hey there are some up on ebay for 2 grand, right? The nature of the word 'shortage' is that it means 'harder to find than expected/reasonable'.

This is scarcity vs shortage.

Shortage is when there isn't enough supply to equal demand at a given price point.

Scarce means the amount is limited by something. Almost everything is scarce.

The general rule of thumb is that baring wage controls there is never a shortage of labor, only a shortage of wages.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Taffer posted:

You are describing basic algorithmic software which is typically written by a human. This is not how neural networks work. Take image processing for example, if you have a network built to detect fruit, you don't define the attributes of apples and bananas and use detection algorithms like edge finding and blob finders to narrow down the possibilities and classify the results, Instead you simply feed it data, tons of data. Let's say, 500 images each of a variety of fruits. Then, when you feed it a new image of a fruit, it will be able to narrow down the possibilities by using only data it has received as not an array of complex but ultimately dumb algorithms. It works similarly to the human mind, albeit not as sophisticated, requiring significantly larger amounts of data than a human to make a determination.

https://studio.azureml.net/


If you have any MS account it is free.

Play around with it a bit.

They made it trivial to implement.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Malcolm XML posted:

Hell Keynes predicted a 15hr workweek and yet we toil longer than that

Unfortunately capital consumes all benefit so unless the means of production are seized I don't think we're all gonna be sunning ourselves everyday

Keynes was wrong because he failed to realize that people have an infinite desire for consumption.

If we wanted to live a 40s life style we could be working 15 hours a week.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

mobby_6kl posted:

It's not just that somebody could turn your lights on and off, by hacking them they might also a) use it to run denial of service attacks and b) gain access to other devices or services on your network. This is something that needs to be taken absolutely seriously and we should avoid making critical devices accessible to the whole internet. But I also don't think it will (or should) prevent progress.

A ton of IoT stuff now is useless garbage, but that's to be expected with a new paradigm when everyone just throws poo poo at the wall. There are plenty of great use cases for it that can genuinely improve your daily life.

The Accessibility factor for IOT and smart home stuff is huge.

The first guy I know who jumped on it was my uncle. His wife his problems with fine muscle control. She doesn't need to fumble with switches anymore she can simply tell Alexa to turn on the lights she wants on. If she is too hot or too cold she can adjust the Temp. She can make calls with out dialing a number or fumbling with menus.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Slavvy posted:

Ok I see. No the problem is you've missed the uncounted times when goons get bizarrely angry about, and invested in arguing about, self driving cars. To the point where it just results in massive idiotic debates about one of the less significant automation technologies as far as impact on society goes. Which is why nobody wants to talk about them.

Car talk leads to urban planning talk

Urban planning talk leads to half the thread advocating genocide and/or other crimes against humanity the other half until there is a full meltdown and the probations and bans start flying.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Former DILF posted:

its pretty funny that european capitalists classify things like pants as wealth when they're really more of a burden to people in warm climates

Pants are a tool of capitalist oppression.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Trabisnikof posted:

What's the big deal about people wanting jobs? Why most people were serfs or slaves for centuries and we can just return to that!

I've wondered if UBI will end up being a return to serfdom.

You're kept barely alive, unable to change or improve your situation, just in case you are ever needed for "service" to the state.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Doctor Malaver posted:

This is interesting but I admit I don't have the stamina to read and digest the whole paper. Can someone with a stronger economy background comment?
It is taking issue with one specific report that the media pointed to as saying that human labor will be completely displaced.

It points out that the report doesn't say that at all and that with in the report it shows that Automation is currently less of a factor in employment & wage trends than trade is.

And that the report shows automation is trending down at the moment because at this point we're hitting diminishing returns on automation.


TL;DR the media is still poo poo at reporting on science and their headline is usually dramatically overstating the argument in the paper.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

StabbinHobo posted:

economists are the ones telling us to dig up all the carbon and set fire to it in order to afford a new phone every 2 years instead of 3, generally speaking, gently caress their take

I'm just going to assume this was an attempt at Cunningham's law and not the dumbest take in the last 10 years of D&D.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Doctor Malaver posted:

They also say that it's not an issue just with that article but that generally speaking there is no evidence that automation leads to joblessness. That's a bold claim.

It isn't though.

We automated agriculture from 60% of the population to 5% in a century (1850 -> 1950) and were still at near full employment.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

I wonder how corrosive to society it is that current american pop culture fiction has been stuck on dystopias for several decades.

Like other times and places mixed it up, look back at 1960s sci-fi or Japanese sci-fi or whatever and you see them mixing it up between "the future is going to all go wrong and suck" and "here is a pretty okay future and we made up some stuff that might be cool if someone invented" but the US has sorta just put it's food on the dystopia peddle and rarely let off.

Like it's so obvious whenever anyone mentions anything that everyone is so able to barf out 50 hit movies from the past 5 years about how awful everything is but the opposite is always some weird lol anime or doctor who from england or a book from 1947. Like culture gives people so many words to talk about how doomed everything is and so few words to even think of any problem being solved or different problems existing in the future or whatever.

Like "the original star trek" is pretty much everyone's only touchstone for talking about anything hopeful, but everyone can rattle off brainlessly 50 movies about how bad every aspect of everything that exists is going to be soon.

Dystopian fiction has been around a long rear end time.

Metropolis has strong dytopian themes. Hell, even during the 60s and 70s dystopias and post-apocalyptic was a thing.

I think there is a Chicken and the Egg aspect too. People have a feeling of decline. That feeling is reflected in Art.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

1337JiveTurkey posted:

It’ll definitely happen at the business level that some merchandising AI is gonna poo poo the bed and start ordering and stocking just the weirdest stuff until some human nominally supervising it notices.

That started happening 10 years ago.

Inventory Management isn't a strong AI, but it is still a rats nest of rules and exceptions that might as well be as far as the ability to understand it's logic goes.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Raspberry Jam It In Me posted:

Can't be much worse than the guy currently responsible for it. Always orders 1 or 2 pants in normal, human sizes for every clothing store and then 20 pairs of L, XL, XXL, XXXXL. The elephant pants then hang around unsold for months till they are shredded and turned into cheap wall insulation or something. Rinse& repeat for all eternity. Seriously, it's like they haven't looked at a BMI distribution of the pants buying population, ever.

(Sorry, I was just shopping. Don't mind me.)

They account for this. They break it down by the location and the intended demographics.

So you're buying clothes they expect overweight people to wear.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Mozi posted:

"It’s easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the end of capitalism."

This very much rings true for me.

Because as long as someone is has something someone else wants and is willing to trade for it Capitalism will exist in some form.

Even if it is two stone age tribes trading relics ripped from the ruins of skyscrapers.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

His Divine Shadow posted:

That's not capitalism.

See Mark Blyth re: capitalism and how it required the state to create markets in order for it to exist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrpD_yMBC8E

Whatever point he is trying make is so muddled it is completely incoherent.

He doesn't seem to be able to separate the idea of "government support helps capitalism" with "government support is required for capitalism".

Which is transparently bullshit if you look at black markets.

Even in his Sweden vs Somalia example he completely undermines his own point. Private businesses seeking profit exist in Somalia. They're less successful than ones in Sweden, but they do exist.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Ormi posted:

The only muddled thing in there is the off-hand equation of markets with capitalism. People have been exchanging and doing business in various forms certainly since the first (very non-capitalist) states were erected, and arguably before. But capitalism is a specific set of notions about how governments, trade, and people should intersect, or less prescriptively, do intersect under liberal property regimes. A working class requires enclosure of the commons, corporations require legal foundations, big businesses in general require the myriad internal improvements necessary to create a national market, and so on.

People seem to be constantly shifting the goalposts of what defines capitalism to meet their ideology of "Capitalism is bad".

It has shifted from trying to "profit from capital instead of labor" to "uses markets" now to "has a complex financial sector and large corporations" in the last couple of pages alone.

Even under all of those things Capitalism existed long before the term did. You can find bronze age records about financial dealings, interest regulation, etc a long time before people even had a concept of economics.

Xae fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Dec 21, 2017

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Ardennes posted:

Capitalism at least to me, it more than the existence of markets, but a particular relationship that developed during industrialization. Also, there are in fact different types of capitalism that need to be put into context.

Also, there is the broader debate of "state capitalism" versus "state socialism" in the Soviet Union (and other Marxist-Leninist states). That said, in my belief, I honestly don't know if the Soviet Union, in particular, could have developed differently than it did (this is from someone who has been crawling through Soviet archival statistics).

Part of the problem is that we're trying to force academic terms onto the real world.


Right now there are thriving black markets in North Korea, probably the least capitalist state. In so far as its internal economy.

But I also just shopped at an employee owned grocery store right in the beating heart of 'MURICAN capitalism.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Is the glum suicide jerk off fantasy that it'll be so cheap and ubiquitous it'll replace the job or artist or the the thirst for a grim future that it'll be so expensive no one but the rich can control it?

Which ever is required for the fantasy at the moment. Internal consistency is for chumps.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Doctor Malaver posted:

A friend who develops on MS Azure was telling me today how it's insane how many new services they announce on a weekly basis. Face recognition, face mood recognition, text summarizing, text analysis sentence by sentence... He tries to stay up to date but too much is going on. And it all costs like a fraction of a cent per use. And that's just Azure, AWS is bigger and better.

https://studio.azureml.net/

Even if you aren't a developer see if you can log into that and run some of their basic training.

In about 10 minutes you setup a machine learning algorithm that takes FAA data and uses it to predict the possibility that any given Flight will on time.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Arglebargle III posted:

Do you read history? Generally you announce your intention to end capitalism, overthrow the state in a violent revolution, execute or imprison any rich family who was dumb enough not to flee or defect, and seize all property for the state. Then you make public property available for people to use through various bureaucratic schemes. Then you setup inner party members as the new aristocracy who have complete unchecked control over the seized wealth and terrorize the populace into submission by turning the institutions you created that poo poo on the rich into institutions that poo poo on everyone.

The first few years aren't even that complicated.

Adjusted for the last couple of times it happened.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Nevvy Z posted:

Why is it so important that this thread assign blame today with only the information reported in the news?

Because the future of a multi-billion dollar industry is going to be decided based on shitposting on SOMETHING AWFUL DOT COM.

Or because people are looking for a reason to get into a slap fight.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Solkanar512 posted:

All video is heavily processed to become human readable.

Anything else you want to defend?

Do the LIDAR sensors generate a visual recording by default?

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Condiv posted:

it doesn't take a day or two days or three days to produce that rendering oocc

Producing anything that can be used in a legal proceeding takes way more time than you think it does.

You check and double check everything. You make sure everything used to generate the filing is checked in and backed up so you can reproduce it.

Any changes made in the program that generated the filing are documented, reviewed and explained.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Condiv posted:

No one said it’s as fast as raw camera footage. It’s deffo not a multi day process though. Like I said, you’re making it out to be more difficult than it is

It is always multiple days to get things ready. And I already explained why to you.

I did E-Discovery work for a couple of years. So I'm pretty informed about how long things take when you're talking about prepping data for potential legal proceedings.

You don't know what you're talking about and you're wrong. Go away.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Condiv posted:

that wasn't what was being discussed though xae. sorry, but try to not wander into a conversation if you can't keep up

You're try to say the discussion about why things take time isn't relevant to why things take time?

:jerkbag:

You got caught running your mouth off about poo poo you don't understand. Go away and grow up a bit.

Xae fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Mar 22, 2018

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Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Condiv posted:

xae, we were discussing technical poo poo. no-one was talking about courtrooms or discovery or anything until you decided to interject. and quite frankly, i don't care about any of that

if you wanna argue with someone about discovery or legal proceedings, do it with someone else. ok?

You think that the footage and data won't be part of the inevitable lawsuit?

You think Uber's lawyers aren't heavily involved in this and aren't running the show?


Uber is dumb as gently caress, but even they can figure out that hitting a pedestrian is going to be a lawsuit.

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