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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




I think that the line between store and warehouse is going to get erased and that's how they are going to survive.

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:

The showroom is every big box store, and the warehouse is amazon.

Imagine an ikea layout hybridized with an amazon fulfillment center

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Bates posted:

Why can't I order my groceries online and then go pick up a box?

That's a thing now safeway's are doing it.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Owlofcreamcheese posted:

probably can give you any detail you ask for and strong opinions on each and every relative merit of every sort of thing.

Clerks who know this stuff can dramatically increase a stores sales relative to what they otherwise should be btw. Most stores have metrics where they expect a given store to have X amount of sales based on the demographics and amount of competition in an area. Performance can be measured by comparing actual sales to the demographically predicted sales. This also allows for comparing performance of stores in different markets. Here's the thing front line retail employees who have this knowledge don't usually stay in retail. They usually don't get paid more than body off the street. Or worse some idiot canned them because the cost associated with the long time they have worked for the store is higher.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Yeah I suppose grocery and liquor is a different beast.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




They want to go after industrial logistics anyway 3PL / 4PL stuff.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




These stores all have demographic thresholds x number of people in area x. Or X number of people at income Y with education Z in area x. They don't get built without meeting these criteria.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




PT6A posted:

They also rotate through stock and designs at a furious rate so there's always a reason to go in and check things out.

Zara does well because it's supply chain is able to respond to demand quickly.

The way it gets worded in textbooks is that "desicion windows" are shrinking and that the product life cycle is compressing. Consumers are being pickier, competition is increasing, and margins are shrinking. Zara is able to give up on products that don't sell faster, and scale up on products that do sell faster.

This is a seperate thing from fast fashion. It's happening in most consumer market segments. The companies that are succeeding in this enviroment share two big things in common. The first is kickass tight quick supply chains, lean and flexible are the buzzwords. The second is "customer facing horizontal" that is thier goal is to respond to demand signals from customers, rather than to try to simply manufacture demand by advertising. Successful companies are also tending towards horizontal structural rather than vertical integration (Zara being an exception here).

If these trends continue remains to be seen. The reaction to globalization currently occuring could potentially end both trends.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Think of business moving towards the rhizome and away from the arboreal in terms of the organizational structure of the business.

Instead of having a top down traditional organization structure, the goal is for information to flow upwards to all the different parts of the supply chain automatically, usually through automation and information sharing. Desicions are made based on this information in a decentralized way, across the multiple companies that make up the supply chain. Market competition isn't between the individual companies but between the supply chains made up of multiple companies. The goal is to have even low level employees be able to make desicions based on the real situation they encounter, rather than to have what they should do dictated to them from above by people multiple steps removed. If what they are doing works those actions get passed upwards and then disseminated to other locations. Apply that to the whole supply chain across multiple companies. The unifying factor is that everything needs to be "customer facing".

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Feb 20, 2017

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




The text on the subject that is probably the best is: Logistics and Supply Chain Management (4th Edition) (Financial Times Series)
ISBN-13: 978-0273731122

What I'm saying is also influenced by my MIS professor and masters program, program head, an IBM industrial systems guy.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

That's really interesting, can you give an example of this kind of decision-making?

Most of my context is the logistics portion of things, the front line retail isn't my personal focus but I have discussed it in grad school. The discussion was on the topic of inventories, yet another related trend is that most companies want to hold as little inventory as possible. The bolded portion is an example of an employee making decisions.

"" posted:

Some of the other costs discussed I think can be thought of in terms of a broader category. It costs money to hold onto physical things. Physical things have to be insured, they have to be housed and protected from damages resulting from the elements. They might brittle with age or spoil with temperature. Things have to be moved. Handling, damage, warehousing, and insurance all of these result from the problem of having to deal with physical objects that make up inventory. But these costs are also going to vary with what the specific inventory is. If inventory, can be stored in a pile, in the open, can transported cheaply in bulk, doesn’t degrade and doesn’t need to be insured it may have very low physical carrying costs. Something like iron ore may would have very low carrying costs. Another material might have to be stored at a cold temperature linked to its usable life span. It might require 3rd party certification of its condition when it is transported. Think the polymers used to make some new aircraft. Analysis of these carrying costs would be very product specific.

Inventory control and cycle counting would seem be about the front lines. How much does it cost to keep the shelves stocked? To keep the store operating and the checkout lines running?
Some else I had in mind while reading that article was that having too much inventory has an opportunity cost of preventing the purchase of more inventory if prices fall. My father has been in front line retail for about forty years, I’m going to greatly simplify an example he has given me. Let’s say you run a liquor store. You have shelf space to keep 5 of any given bottle in a row on the shelf. You don’t want to keep the shelves full at 5 bottles all the time. It’s best order when there is one left and restock up to 3. Because what happens is that distributors often control when a product goes on sale. They sell the product to the stores at a reduced rate when this happens. If the shelves are full the opportunity to purchase stock at a significantly reduced price is missed. During a sale you can stock the shelves fully up to five units and then try to keep them there. When the sale ends you have five units on the shelf that were purchased at the sale price, that now can be sold at the non-sale price. Not overstocking, having too much inventory allows one to take advantage of price fluctuations, in the manner prescribed by Benjamin Graham: “Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and sell wisely when they advance a great deal.” (Graham, B)

I can't remember if I talked about it on SA or at grad school, but by managing his inventory smartly my dad can make the liquor store he runs (attached to the grocery store that he works for) make significantly more money than it should otherwise. Retail store have predictable returns based on the number of people in the stores area in the demographic for the store. So by controlling for the the number of customers stores in demographically differing areas can be compared internally within a company. Dad's practices can have his store generating 150 to 200% above what he should be making for the customer base in the area of his store. That's an example of the effectiveness an employee being able to make decisions based on the real situation they encounter can have. Now in my father's case the company he works for does not encourage this. They go out of their way to make it as hard as possible for him to make his own decisions. He gets a new manager and they tell him to stop doing things like having discussions with the customers regarding what they like to drink and what based on that they might also like to try. They tell him to stock and order inventory according to their standardized methods, ignoring his knowledge of the distributors sales schedules. Eventually the relative profit for his store falls, they poo poo a brick, and let him go back to doing things the way he wants. That's top down. Bottom up would look at his choices and go, holy poo poo we can make more money without more work, and make the customers happier, if we alter the systems we use to run stores with this information.

A more abstract hypothetical example would be a frontline employee discovering that if we do X then we sell more Y. Or an employee finding "that customers seem to like it when we do Z a lot" in traditional business structure those impulses get crushed. The better way to run things is to encourage and reward employees for doing them and to spread those good practices. The thing is for this to work (outside of wierdos like my dad, who persist out of pride in doing his job well in spite of being treated like poo poo) employees have to be treated well and adequately compensated. They have to care and give a gently caress.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

This is the rare instance when making more profit sounds like it also makes a job more satisfying to do. I'm fascinated. I had only heard of modern inventory practices in negative ways - "just-in-time inventory" is what people tell me to blame when the drat store doesn't have the drat thing I came there to buy. I like the idea of retail being skilled labor. I think we have better jobs and a better society when it is. Not credentialed - we need more jobs that don't require a college degree imo, but dealing with someone like your dad is going to beat out the internet for me every time.

13.85 is what he gets paid per hour (the last time I asked). He makes in nominal non inflation adjusted income what he did in the late seventies. His current job, he took 33 years ago to get health care for my birth.

If I screw up at work you'll read about it in the news. If I screw up I'll kill people and do hundreds of millions of dollars in damages. My job is significantly less stressful than my father's. The mangement ideologies that are running things now do not value skilled labor in retail. They will change thier ideology or automation will kill thier model. The best outcome would be skilled well paid retail labor. I don't know how to make that happen.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




ToxicSlurpee posted:

You had a bunch of people who just counted things and wrote that poo poo down. Now a computer does it all and one person just fixes the errors.

They still have employees count in most grocery stores. Even though the computer already generates a count from the informant collected at POS . Especially for liquor and lottery. They might be regulated depending on the state.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Craptacular! posted:

Albertsons bought Safeway in Southern CA/NV.

When these chains buy each other, they each have thier own set of rules. Albertsons runs one way, Kash n Karry ran one way, Food Lion runs another way, etc. It sucks for the employees because they have to learn new the new systems each time. Also they love to lay off and rehire to reset benefits if they are allowed to in the particular state.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Well they want eventually for that EPOS to collect data that can generate orders in real time down the entire supply chain. Straight up someone buys a microwave in seattle it lets the mine in Brazil know to dig up more iron ore type things. Or even from the rates predicting the raw materials orders ahead of time and so forth for all points in the supply chain.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:

BrandorKP do you think that all the complicated analysis you posted last page basically boils down to "people on the ground, if they're paid enough to care and are being paid attention to, can better respond to consumer trends that arise organically"?

That's my opinion. Further I would say the current thinking on supply chain management, some of the text books on the subject, say that. And they stress organizing the business in a way to move that information from those employees upward to management. When they do these things businesses make more money.

That's craziest thing to me. Treating employees poorly, not retaining them, and not listening to them loses a business money.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




New times article on amazon

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...6Kk60IxhbXVe88g

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Don't forget to post a dog.

Edit: nevermind looks like that's on the way out.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




When everybody else is trying to be lean there is money to be made when they bugger up and run out of inventory and need to get it quickly.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Some fashion specific stuff about Zara:

http://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2013/dec/15/inditex-spain-global-fashion-powerhouse

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/11/magazine/how-zara-grew-into-the-worlds-largest-fashion-retailer.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1

It's older articles, but it's case studies that got used in my logistics in the supply chain classes.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Apr 11, 2017

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Yeah but people who do that are a different market segment. REI has enough of a "brand" that people will buy it to advertise thier identity.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




OneEightHundred posted:

Converting a mall into residential isn't really practical, converting it into office space probably is though.

I've seen both small community colleges and high schools use mall space.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




NFS tell us more about trash rich people...

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Yeah, they go to the Costco foodcourt. It's like some of you don't even read this thread :rolleyes:

My boss who can cash flow two single family homes in the Seattle area, literally selected the location of those homes via proximity to Costco.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Ogmius815 posted:

To be fair my landlord is a multi-millionaire and I know for a fact that he regularly shops at our local Target.

Bulk and low unit costs are a thing for many very well off people. This is more high accumulator crowd and less the HENRYs. I have had the same conversation with several multimillionaires about cup ramen vs packet ramen. They love to give me poo poo about the dime unit cost difference.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




It's different out here there is a massive amount of public amenities. There are "destination playgrounds". Even in the less desirable communities, there is a crazy amount of public space. It's lousy with kids too, everybody has kids (me included). It's just easier to live.

Where I was living in GA had a population of about 9000. Where I live now in WA has about 6000. Twice as many grocery stores, order of magnitude more playgrounds. Even out where I live most retail jobs start at $14. They literally make announcements in the grocery store asking for people to apply for jobs.

Growth is one hell of a thing.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Have you found the secret floor for the very very rich yet? Most of those high end vertical malls have one.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




moron izzard posted:

The hole that sears left in our mall was filled 100% with high end apparel and jewelry I'll never ever ever enter

No you're missing an opportunity. The first time I found out about them was in Honolulu. I was reading about them and was close enough to walk to one. I had half a day off and walked down from diamond head to waikiki. To get to the floor inside the mall I had take a convoluted path up a couple escalators across, down and then back up again. It was pretty empty of people. Most of the stores were very sparse. I remember one store had three purses on the walls of an otherwise white room, clerk just standing looking professional. Eventually I attracted a security tail. I was wearing khaki shorts, boots, and a pit sweated t-shirt, scruffy bushey beard looking vaguely like zach galifianakis, I'd walked a pretty long way before getting there. I smelt a bit frankly. Eventually I got bored of disturbing the exclusivity of the place and had enough voyeurism. The exclusivity is really what they are selling.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Grand Prize Winner posted:

Wait what? Are you making that up? What search terms should I use to google that, because I'm not turning up anything.

Nah it's a thing but you're probably not going to find much. That's part of the point. You're supposed to know somebody who tells you about it, then you have to actually tracks these places down. It's not all hidden in multistory malls sometimes it's also store fronts for single luxury stores that are just hidden in odd places. Making one work for it, or having ones assistants work for it is a barrier to keep the rest of us out.

Not one I've been to but this is an example from a secret travel site that describes well how it works:

"Despite Apartment's location smack-bang in the middle of tourist-magnet Mitte, it's a pretty good bet that few Berlin visitors ever drop by for a casual browse.

Simply because at street level there's rarely anything to see, with the apparently abandoned store resembling a glaringly unoccupied rising-rents casualty.

To access the retail area itself you'll need to descend the spiral staircase in the corner of the ground floor. Once underground, you'll find a range of designer labels and upmarket accessories displayed in a moodily-lit, atmospheric space."

A portion of the luxury segment can be like this, finding the place is part of the "experience". They have varying degrees of how hidden they are, but generally the richer the people they are shooting to sell to the more convoluted what you have to do to find the place is. There were a bunch of articles about the luxury market a couple years ago, mostly talking about how a bunch of companies were just giving up on selling things to the rest of us and focusing on the very very rich. That's where I found out about these types of stores. Think I found where to go in hono from a travel site. The restaurant industry has a similar market. But mostly they (restaurants for the very very rich) use price to keep people away. One of Anthony Bourdains books has a section about restaurants in this segment. Exorbitantly priced crap. What's really being sold is that the rest of us are being kept out.

withak posted:

I refuse to believe that mall security in Hawaii gave a poo poo about a scruffy guy in a tshirt.

I am not a particularly interesting story teller. Even talking about telling my wife "I love you" for the first time while having my calls listened to by dutch anarchists? Boring when I tell it.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




The_Franz posted:

This seems counterproductive since the overlap between people who make enough money to buy $8000 tote bags and the "I don't have time for this poo poo" crowd is probably very large.

Listen to this poo poo about $60,000 purses:

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/12/25/460870534/episode-672-bagging-a-birkin

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




WampaLord posted:

Yea I'm talking about the "3 purses on a blank wall" fake store bullshit.

I used to get involved in the shipping of mega-yachts regularly. Most of these big yachts only have the fuel capacity to travel a couple hundred miles. They can't cross an ocean. So the wealthy have them loaded on containerships and general purpose vessels break bulk. They get shipped in seasonal patterns around the world following good weather.

Am I lying to you? You probably have no easy way to check.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006





That's kind of neat, I used to board Spliethoff’s s-types all the time that carry thier yachts. They'd (Spliethoff) load yachts after loading kaolin in savannah. I know the port captain that would handle this stuff. I've evrn checked yachts on flats for Sevenstar. This is still more the mid sized yachts, not the really big ones.

This damned internet thing continues to surprise me.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:

I would like one of these.

You can buy a containership for that much money.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




ReidRansom posted:

Like, just watch that accompanying video and tell me you don't lust for the crew to rise up and keelhaul the owners.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...mqg0aRrR6nED5oQ

"They had a young, female, Arab boss, a very sweet woman who they adored and who never ever went in the water. But one day she was in the mood to go for a swim, even though there were jellyfish," she explained.

"So what they did was jump in the water and clear everything in front of her -- they got stung to pieces. It was a sign of respect from them. I just think it's a nice story."

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




OwlFancier posted:

I mean the suggestion has been made several times to shoot all the rich people and traditionally that has been a starting policy of most would be socialist governments, I can't say I'm in particular disagreement.

There is a decent documentary by one of the Johnson heirs called "The One Percent" the best scene is when he is talking with a poor black taxi driver. It's worth watching the whole movie for that one scene. I won't spoil it.

The is a lot to find truly pathetic in the very, very, wealthy. There is no freedom or salvation in extreme wealth. It's all vanity.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




glowing-fish posted:

My Carhartts lasted four months before I ripped the crotch open. I don't know how I managed to do that.

If you don't mind wearing women's pants Red Ants are pretty drat good.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Times today:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FwMkzpT4hsTAPPg

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




paragon1 posted:

Can I interest you in becoming a sales rep for some great health and diet products? We'll show you how to build your own team, and you'll have your own business before you know it. I hope you'll consider this as you really seem like a Diamond tier entrepreneur.

The big one right now (mlm scam wise) is essential oils. These guys:
https://www.google.com/aclk?sa=l&ai=DChcSEwiP7NX50NfTAhUPg34KHVZkDVoYABAAGgJwYw&sig=AOD64_1Qb2f-HZ4Dnvcm2KRlS4bXSsvswA&adurl=&q=
They're dug in like a tick into the stay at home tech wives and Mormons up here around Seattle east side suburbs.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Crabtree posted:

The combination of the horribly quick development pace of technology often out-moding several hundred dollar pieces of tech within months,

Price deflation https://imgur.com/a/mW9VW

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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Crabtree posted:

Do you have any charts for the prices of phones throughout the years and more "hip" electronics along with prices for computer components? Because DVDs and Blu-rays have become redundant or antiquated to personal streaming devices or huge flat screen TV sets/consoles with them built in like how they made VHS.

I don't but the general tend is towards ever steeper curves most especially in electronics. That was the textbook example illustrating the trend. I may have some aggregate graphs showing the compression in product life cycles. Could take a bit to find them.

Basically product life cycles are shorter across the board in nearly all categories. The things firms sell, they make less money on more quickly than in the past.

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