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Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

I know, it's a crazy idea, Clancy bullshit, not going to happen, etc.

But let's all indulge our inner Clancy for a minute. How would it work, just from a mechanical perspective? The country is too decentralized to allow a sufficiently small group of plotters to seize all the centers of power.

In my opinion an attempted coup would result in a 1991 Soviet Union style scenario that would lead to the breakup of the United States. Which is why you see Obama et al going to lengths to respect the process, they're not stupid.

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Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Main Paineframe posted:

What "deep state"? The military, the intelligence agencies, and the billionaires all already love Trump. Who else is left?
CIA is leaking hardcore against Trump right now if you haven't noticed, and plenty of billionaires hate Trump.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Hollismason posted:

A Coup would never work in the United States because the US Military above all else to a almost religiously zealotry degree believe in Civilian Authority and this is droned into all officer's heads during training. You may read about how the military is conservative ,but they're also constitutionalist. The majority of them believe strongly in the US Constitution.
What if they believed the president intended to abolish the constitution? Either literally, or de facto through an Enabling Act-type law.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

What do you think that CIA report leak is? Whoever put that out there is taking a major risk. Everyone involved in that report is going to be fired once Trump takes office and the leaker will face an Espionage Act prosecution if discovered. I wouldn't put it above Trump to charge the NYT as a corporate entity, and the editors/reporters personally, under the Espionage Act as well.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Grognan posted:

The same thing is going to happen to the same people that sold us in 03 about weapons of mass destruction. Zip.
You're assuming that the normal rules still apply. They don't. It would be folly to assume that everyone in the IC will stand idly by as Trump's Gleichschaltung happens. Sure the FBI is in Trump's pocket but I doubt the CIA, NSA, and State intelligence among others are on board. Let's also remember the CIA has a huge special forces arm.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Main Paineframe posted:

Why would this be any different from any of the other times Presidents have poo poo all over the Constitution?
Because what we're likely to see will go well beyond what we saw even in WW2. And there's no world war on.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Your scenario of debilitating leaks is the most likely one assuming Trump doesn't attempt a purge. I could see an attempt at his own personal Night of the Long Knives (with fewer corpses and more arrests/firings) triggering a coup. Conway has already suggested a purge of the IC is planned.

All Trump has to do is fire every civilian DoD/IC employee in a management pay grade who isn't 100% politically reliable, and arrest the ones he has even slightly incriminating material on to send a message.

Yes, there are civil service protections, but they are looser the higher you go up the ladder and as the President he can override most of them. He'll want to do it fast, overnight on a Saturday on a winter holiday weekend is best. Or better yet, at 4am Inauguration morning.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Mycroft Holmes posted:

you keep assuming trump is competent
He doesn't have to be, Bannon can do the mental heavy lifting.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Grognan posted:

Have you considered chilling the gently caress out and perhaps not snorting the farts of liberal media that is frantically voiding their bowels because what they thought was inevitable was simply a misconception?

Like I know Jenkem is a hell of a drug but you don't need to ignite it when you breath in.
I'm afraid the time for chilling out has passed, hey if he's just incompetent and corrupt I'll be thrilled but there's enough evidence to the contrary that people are justified in freaking the gently caress out.

So far he's played out the authoritarian seizure of power playbook to a T. He's stacked his cabinet with fascist ideologues (Sessions), right wing business elites (Tillerson et al), and prominent generals, exactly what you would want to do to buy off factions whose support will be critical for a successful seizure of power.

Thinking "it can't happen here" is exactly how it ends up happening.

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

It's almost like there's a continuum between garden variety authoritarianism and death camps.

I personally don't think death camps are on the table. Concentration camps for migrants though? Absolutely. Australia's already got them.

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Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

The CIA is not what it used to be in terms of subtle covert action but it is waaaay more than it used to be in terms of actual kinetic warfare.

Anyway, here's another point. If people in the CIA and military really believe that Putin has installed Trump in power aren't they honor bound to try to coup him?

And no we will never have tanks in Pennsylvania Avenue. Even in third world coups the tanks are pure symbolism, they almost never get actually used. If you need to seriously use 'em, your coup failed, go to jail, do not collect $200.

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