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Bummer, NYT just called it for Northam.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:09
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Kevin DuBrow posted:In the event of Northam's likely and unfortunate victory, keep an eye on a live stream of his victory party ; ) Are... are you at the party? Don't do something dumb and goony. EDIT: Primaries are hard for me to understand. JosefStalinator fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Jun 14, 2017 |
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Jun 14, 2017 01:09
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The Glumslinger posted:Well, Northam is currently leading by over 13% with about 40% of the vote in, so it looks like he won So it seems, but that's the trouble with campaigns like Perriello's that try to convince people who don't vote in primaries to vote in primaries. For some reason, they rarely work. It's still possible that he could have reservoirs of votes in late counting areas, but I wouldn't hold out too much hope.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:10
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corey stewart might pull it off and give us an interesting Republican candidate https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/874778429304049664
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Jun 14, 2017 01:12
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It's really strange how much of the "heartland" seems to be going to the liberal dem. There's something to take away from that but hell if I know what it is.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:12
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If Corey Stewart pulls this one out.... that could be an indicator of one chaotic 2018. I rejected out of hand the idea that demotivated establishment conservatives would see their asses kicked in primaries by the Trump wing but if that becomes a trend, next year will be one hell of a year.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:13
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JosefStalinator posted:Are... are you at the party? Don't do something dumb and goony. Haha no. Looking back on my post it does seem really dramatic. I just know that people are going to try stuff.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:14
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:It's really strange how much of the "heartland" seems to be going to the liberal dem. There's something to take away from that but hell if I know what it is. The thing to take away from it is that the matchup isn't exactly what you imagine it to be. it's hardly equivalent to the Clinton Bernie matchup, in that both of them have fairly spotty records. How they differ is mostly in their style of politics, and it's that what you're seeing on the map. Unfortunately, like I said above, appeals to infrequent voters are very risky. There's a reason why Democratic politicians campaign as they do in Democratic primaries, and that calculus really won't change until the demographics of who votes in the primaries changes.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:15
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Unfortunately it looks like Gillespie is going to hold out over Stewart. That would have been an interesting race that could have really shook up the calculus for the House of Delegates.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:17
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AP has called the race for Northam  Well he should still win by a million against Gillespie or Stewart. Hello to everyone quoting this in November 2017 to laugh at me. axeil fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Jun 14, 2017 |
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Jun 14, 2017 01:18
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axeil posted:AP has called the race for Northam Yeah, that's still true, 538 still holds that the fundamentals are strongly in Dems favor. I'm still sad because I feel that Tom had a better chance to energize folks who really need to be energized in off year elections, but if he couldn't do that in the primaries, it's a bit of a wash, I suppose. We certainly have not seen the last of Tom, either, on the state or even the federal levels. On the basis of his showing here, I suspect he'll make a strong run for either governor next time around or federal office.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:20
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Quorum posted:Yeah, that's still true, 538 still holds that the fundamentals are strongly in Dems favor. I'm still sad because I feel that Tom had a better chance to energize folks who really need to be energized in off year elections, but if he couldn't do that in the primaries, it's a bit of a wash, I suppose. Yeah I'm bummed too because Perriello seemed like he would really aggressively make a play for the House of Delegates and Northam seems content to just deal with it instead of actually fighting to change the calculus in Richmond. We're a blue state, we can take back the House of Delegates if only people gave a poo poo and tried.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:21
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I found it interesting you had to choose which primary you voted in today. Reports I've read say far more chose to do the Democratic ballot than Republican. I wonder if that is what is leading to the Gillespie-Stewart race being as close as it is.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:23
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axeil posted:Yeah I'm bummed too because Perriello seemed like he would really aggressively make a play for the House of Delegates and Northam seems content to just deal with it instead of actually fighting to change the calculus in Richmond. We're a blue state, we can take back the House of Delegates if only people gave a poo poo and tried. If he couldn't get people to vote in the primary why would he be able to get people to vote in November? The liberal bastions have all gone for Northam, there is no intra party divide here.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:23
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I think Tom did a fantastic job given that unusual circumstances of his candidacy and natural voting base, and I really hope he doesn't bow out of VA Dem politics after this. Northam appears to be a lab-created centrist VA Dem so can't say it's unexpected. I don't live in VA anymore and I'd like to point out that Tom's campaign called me a few times (after telling them I didn't live there anymore twice) and Ralph's just texted me, the jerks. Johnny Walker posted:I found it interesting you had to choose which primary you voted in today. Reports I've read say far more chose to do the Democratic ballot than Republican. I wonder if that is what is leading to the Gillespie-Stewart race being as close as it is. I'm very curious about this as well, the current numbers have the Dems with 100k more votes total than the GOP. Sign of an enthusiasm gap?
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Jun 14, 2017 01:23
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FWIW, Perrillo was a flawed candidate for a lot of reasons unrelated to his populism. I've heard from a number of people who know him personally and are involved in state-level politics that he's basically a huckster who is trying to latch onto a sentiment, and Northam would make a good governor. And state-level stuff isn't going to flip until redistricting. The districts in Richmond for example are atrocious.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:24
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/874784547489165312 the boy might do it
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Jun 14, 2017 01:25
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Zikan posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/874784547489165312 I'm definitely the one harping on how this primary cycle is not the same as last primary cycle, but oh my God if we actually are stuck in a groundhog day style Loop repeating 2016 over and over again, I think I may begin setting fire to things
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Jun 14, 2017 01:26
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Fingers crossed that Stewart pulls it out. There's no way he pulls down votes from NoVA or Richmond. Worth noting that the turnout for Republicans was way lower than Democrats.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:27
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farraday posted:If he couldn't get people to vote in the primary why would he be able to get people to vote in November? The liberal bastions have all gone for Northam, there is no intra party divide here. Well presumably had he won it would've been on the backs of voters in districts where we need to pick up Delegate seats, so he might be able to push some folks across the line. Seven Hundred Bee posted:FWIW, Perrillo was a flawed candidate for a lot of reasons unrelated to his populism. I've heard from a number of people who know him personally and are involved in state-level politics that he's basically a huckster who is trying to latch onto a sentiment, and Northam would make a good governor. Oh yeah despite my grousing about negative campaigning, I'm really happy with how he's done as Lt. Gov and I'm very confident he'll be good in the big chair. Anyone know anything about this Justin Fairfax fellow? Now that he appears to have won the Lt. Gov primary I hope we hear more about him. He seems alright.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:27
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:FWIW, Perrillo was a flawed candidate for a lot of reasons unrelated to his populism. I've heard from a number of people who know him personally and are involved in state-level politics that he's basically a huckster who is trying to latch onto a sentiment, and Northam would make a good governor. Care to share any more about this? Some of the endorsements have been head-scratchers, like Levar Stoney coming out strongly for Northam. I might just be out of the loop.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:27
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my bony fealty posted:Care to share any more about this? Some of the endorsements have been head-scratchers, like Levar Stoney coming out strongly for Northam. I might just be out of the loop. Well, a couple general things: Perriello has basically no elected experience (2 years in the House), made a lot of enemies in the state-level party -- which isn't good, issues with the party aside -- and his tilt towards the far left came out of nowhere. Basically, from what people who know him personally have said is that he saw how popular Bernie was, figure "gently caress it, I can say that same poo poo", and doesn't actually believe what he says. I know people don't like how Northam was a Republican not long ago, but he'll be a good Governor.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:30
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Fingers crossed that Trump pulls it out. There's no way he pulls down votes from the Upper Midwest or New South. This is my fear, given that the Dems just nominated a very middle of the road guy. Seven Hundred Bee posted:Well, a couple general things: Perriello has basically no elected experience (2 years in the House), made a lot of enemies in the state-level party -- which isn't good, issues with the party aside -- and his tilt towards the far left came out of nowhere. Basically, from what people who know him personally have said is that he saw how popular Bernie was, figure "gently caress it, I can say that same poo poo", and doesn't actually believe what he says. I know he got all the state-level endorsements because he's been a good fundraiser/surrogate/supporter for everyone, I just hate how he doesn't seem to be focusing on the House of Delegates and taking back that chamber from the GOP. Maybe he is and I'm just not paying attention or seeing it.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:31
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axeil posted:This is my fear, given that the Dems just nominated a very middle of the road guy. Hillary won VA, why would a candidate who has already alienated local members of his own party somehow do better than Trump? Yes I know shades of Trump and all that, but theres no way a pro-Confederation douchebag is gonna play well outside of a limited primary with terrible turnout.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:33
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With 2/3rds of fairfax and half of Loudon outstanding it'll depend if they narrow or end up looking more like Arling/Alex. Stewart is doing far better in NOVA than I thought he'd do.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:33
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axeil posted:This is my fear, given that the Dems just nominated a very middle of the road guy. Serious question: how do you take back the house with this district map? https://www.onevirginia2021.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/VA_State_Senate.jpg I live in a nice part of Richmond City, and my vote is basically worthless
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Jun 14, 2017 01:35
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potential reason why stewart is doing so well, the only people voting in the republican primary think trump is awesome https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/874785457137176576
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Jun 14, 2017 01:35
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farraday posted:Unfortunately it looks like Gillespie is going to hold out over Stewart. That would have been an interesting race that could have really shook up the calculus for the House of Delegates. https://twitter.com/Messina2012/status/727861322075922433
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Jun 14, 2017 01:36
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Zikan posted:potential reason why stewart is doing so well, the only people voting in the republican primary think trump is awesome So Trump depressed moderate republican turnout/spurred democrat turnout?
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Jun 14, 2017 01:36
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Well, a couple general things: Perriello has basically no elected experience (2 years in the House), made a lot of enemies in the state-level party -- which isn't good, issues with the party aside -- and his tilt towards the far left came out of nowhere. Basically, from what people who know him personally have said is that he saw how popular Bernie was, figure "gently caress it, I can say that same poo poo", and doesn't actually believe what he says. Thanks, that makes a lot of sense! Northam does seem genuine so I'll have faith, having another Warner-type ain't a bad thing. Also holy poo poo he murdered Perriello in Tidewater, just lol 
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Jun 14, 2017 01:39
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Well of course, it's right there in the name.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:41
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Also Northam is keeping the seat warm for our savior Levar Stoney
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Jun 14, 2017 01:42
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Kevin DuBrow posted:Well of course, it's right there in the name. And check out how well Justin Fairfax did in Fairfax
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Jun 14, 2017 01:45
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Kevin DuBrow posted:Well of course, it's right there in the name. And apparently he is actually from the Eastern Shore. Alright, I'm surprised he didn't get MORE of the Tidewater vote. ^^ lmao it's the only Nova county that went for him, haha
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Jun 14, 2017 01:45
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Loudoun in now and half of Fairfax. Looks like Gillespie is holding. There are still a bunch of precincts left but I'm not sure there are enough outstanding votes to make up the gap.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:45
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uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhh https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/874791065353637888
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Jun 14, 2017 01:53
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I wonder how many Gillespie supporters would rally behind Stewart in the general. I'd assume that Stewart supporters would vote for Gillespie in a heartbeat. Also lol @ sensible Wagner supporters possibly preventing a Gillespie victory.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:57
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Zikan posted:uuuuuuhhhhhhhhhh  That ain't good. There might be enough votes from the rural areas to put him ahead.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:58
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The Republican vote totals are so low..
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Jun 14, 2017 01:58
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Even if Stewart wins, I'm not that worried; "Clintonist moderate vs. crazy right-winger" is what got us McAuliffe, and Northam isn't a corrupt carpetbagger and Stewart would be crazier than the Cooch. I voted for Perriello and Fairfax, but honestly there was so little difference between the candidates' platforms I'm not clear it was worth the sticker. At least the blazing hot day meant that there were no canvassers to brush past.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:59
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