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Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

FWIW, Perrillo was a flawed candidate for a lot of reasons unrelated to his populism. I've heard from a number of people who know him personally and are involved in state-level politics that he's basically a huckster who is trying to latch onto a sentiment, and Northam would make a good governor.

And state-level stuff isn't going to flip until redistricting. The districts in Richmond for example are atrocious.

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Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Fingers crossed that Stewart pulls it out. There's no way he pulls down votes from NoVA or Richmond. Worth noting that the turnout for Republicans was way lower than Democrats.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

my bony fealty posted:

Care to share any more about this? Some of the endorsements have been head-scratchers, like Levar Stoney coming out strongly for Northam. I might just be out of the loop.

Well, a couple general things: Perriello has basically no elected experience (2 years in the House), made a lot of enemies in the state-level party -- which isn't good, issues with the party aside -- and his tilt towards the far left came out of nowhere. Basically, from what people who know him personally have said is that he saw how popular Bernie was, figure "gently caress it, I can say that same poo poo", and doesn't actually believe what he says.

I know people don't like how Northam was a Republican not long ago, but he'll be a good Governor.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

axeil posted:

This is my fear, given that the Dems just nominated a very middle of the road guy.

Hillary won VA, why would a candidate who has already alienated local members of his own party somehow do better than Trump? Yes I know shades of Trump and all that, but theres no way a pro-Confederation douchebag is gonna play well outside of a limited primary with terrible turnout.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

axeil posted:

This is my fear, given that the Dems just nominated a very middle of the road guy.


I know he got all the state-level endorsements because he's been a good fundraiser/surrogate/supporter for everyone, I just hate how he doesn't seem to be focusing on the House of Delegates and taking back that chamber from the GOP. Maybe he is and I'm just not paying attention or seeing it.

Serious question: how do you take back the house with this district map? https://www.onevirginia2021.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/VA_State_Senate.jpg

I live in a nice part of Richmond City, and my vote is basically worthless

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Also Northam is keeping the seat warm for our savior Levar Stoney

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

The Republican vote totals are so low..

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

If Stewart wins, how hard will the garbage Times-Dispatch twist to find a justification to endorse?

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Voted in Richmond, similar turn out to 2016. Line was about ten minutes

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Henrico County (went for Clinton 56 to 36) has a 2 hour wait.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

axeil posted:

:stare:

The whole county???

A polling place in the county, don't know which one

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

also good news is that VCU (large public university in richmond) finally has a polling place on campus, so that should help the richmond democratic total

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Blitz7x posted:

That's bad?

it's not bad, it's not good.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Your Boy Fancy posted:

Update: since NoVA has gone as well as it has, we've pulled all phone bankers toward Petersburg.

GOON SQUAD: SWITCH TO CENTRAL VA PHONE BANKS PLEASE.

Two hours and twenty one minutes.

I have some free time, cna I phonebank from a cell phone?

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

I work with a senior state Democrat and she was happy about internal polls today, so...

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

HARRY ENTEN 7:19 PM

It’s very early, but I’m looking at three counties where Trump did well and have some very early results. If we use the 2016 presidential election as a baseline, Northam is doing well enough in those three counties to win statewide. But let’s wait for more results

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

this also doesn't account for turnout differentials which will be more apparent in fairfax/richmond/tidewater

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

interestingly northam is running AHEAD of fairfax

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

It's going to turn out in post-mortem analysis that Northam's racist crap actually HELPED him or some poo poo isn't it? I mean, it is Virginia.

no, it turns out that racist shitbags in south west virginia who can't stomach trump still don't want to vote for a black person

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

Quorum posted:

The tidewater accent is a really interesting thing. It's basically all that remains of the old aristocratic planter speak, though it's got some Baltimore mixed in since the Chesapeake Bay communities were more closely tied to each other than to inland locales pre modern transportation.

Also everyone knows to a local it's NAW-gently caress. :colbert:

Richmond has a distinct accent too, it's rare to find it these days, only really see it among older white people who grew up in the city.

Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

gently caress YES gently caress YES gently caress YES

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Seven Hundred Bee
Nov 1, 2006

how many possible seats are we at? 18 with 14 confirmed?

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