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Unfortunately it looks like Gillespie is going to hold out over Stewart. That would have been an interesting race that could have really shook up the calculus for the House of Delegates.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:17
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axeil posted:Yeah I'm bummed too because Perriello seemed like he would really aggressively make a play for the House of Delegates and Northam seems content to just deal with it instead of actually fighting to change the calculus in Richmond. We're a blue state, we can take back the House of Delegates if only people gave a poo poo and tried. If he couldn't get people to vote in the primary why would he be able to get people to vote in November? The liberal bastions have all gone for Northam, there is no intra party divide here.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:23
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With 2/3rds of fairfax and half of Loudon outstanding it'll depend if they narrow or end up looking more like Arling/Alex. Stewart is doing far better in NOVA than I thought he'd do.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:33
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Loudoun in now and half of Fairfax. Looks like Gillespie is holding. There are still a bunch of precincts left but I'm not sure there are enough outstanding votes to make up the gap.
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Jun 14, 2017 01:45
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About 1/3rd of outstanding districts in Fairfax and Gillespie has been maintaining his margin there. They may not call it for a bit but somewhere would have to find missing votes on their excel spreadsheet for Stewart to win.
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Jun 14, 2017 02:08
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Speaking of the House of Delegates, http://www.fauquier.com/news/transg...3be9fd47c6.html quote:Democrat Danica Roem, a former Prince William Times journalist, appears to have made history tonight by becoming the first transgender candidate to win a major party's nomination to the General Assembly. Mark that one down, it isn't a completely unwinnable seat. Marshall won by 3% in 2013 with 17k voter turnout, but won by 13% in 2015 with a 13k turnout.
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Jun 14, 2017 03:03
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/874814019709874176 And there's the call for Gillespie.
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Jun 14, 2017 03:25
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/927696987474063360 I'm not sure this is the right stance to take on this.
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Nov 7, 2017 01:44
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https://twitter.com/srl/status/927885775403962368
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Nov 7, 2017 16:39
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Halloween Jack posted:Look, I held my nose and voted straight-ticket Dem, you can't begrudge me writing in Karl Marx for school board. Having read marx, I blame you for wanting to inflict his prose on children, you monster.
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Nov 7, 2017 16:57
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Your Boy Fancy posted:A friend of mine who hosed up as a young guy just sent me a photo of him with his sticker. Dale City vote too, so it counts for a lot. It's his first vote since he was 18. You’re going to go broke, god speed. axeil posted:My favorite part of my econ department was that the History of Economic Thought was taught by a legitimate Marxist economist. We all read Das Kapital, and it's a pretty good read although it's really long and you have to understand the historical context in that he was responding to David Ricardo and Adam Smith's classical setups.
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Nov 7, 2017 17:07
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Ogmius815 posted:Marx's prose is top-notch among German philosophers. Sure, you could trip over that bar, but compare him to Kant, Hegel, Wittgenstein, or Heidegger. Not unless fancy is buying my beer too. I took a regular history of modern philosphy course too.
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Nov 7, 2017 17:20
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axeil posted:NOVA Goon meet to drink beer and discuss German philosophy/politics. Sounds like a William & Mary class reunion. The re wasn’t a line in My precinct in Alexandria but it was right after the early morning rush.
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Nov 7, 2017 17:29
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/927940619049291776 https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/927916894996303872 Does not include 45k plus absentee.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:03
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Carlosologist posted:whoa, Terry McAuliffe restored voting rights by hand?? what a boss Immigrants coming here and becoming citizens  In 2013 the turnout in fairfax was 46.8% so that should be your benchmark for what represents a strong turnout.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:20
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This twitter account is posting turnout numbers. https://mobile.twitter.com/VotingGuy It is unverified and I'm not vouching for its veracity but at least some of the items are retweets of official accounts.
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Nov 7, 2017 18:34
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axeil posted:"Both sides are the same and I don't want to get wet" - these idiots, probably It’s incredibly high for an off yeah election which is usually closer to 130k. The distribution of absentee voting also skewed heavily to NOVA all of which should be favorable toward the Dems.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:31
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Fairfax City’s benchmark from 2013 should be 50.4% for the full day.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:39
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The state turnout% isn’t granular enough, luckily jmu has the turnouts from past years on a county/city level. http://apps4va.cs.jmu.edu/2017/code/recent_years.jsp?locality=Charlottesville+City Charlottesville looks like they’re going to approach Presidential years.
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Nov 7, 2017 19:49
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All in all very strong turn out so far. Will depend on how the post work rush comes in(in crucial Waukesha county)
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Nov 7, 2017 20:07
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Please repost that in the Trump thread to shut some idiots up. You can’t shut idiots up! You’ll regret this! Woth NOVA turnout coming in high, key things we won’t know are if Gillespie over performed(unlikely) or what his margins look like in the rest of the state. If they’re low or normal this will be called much earlier, if they’re high we’ll be up later. In any case thanks to everyone who worked to boost turnout by calling and knocking on doors. Great job, beers are on Fancy.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:27
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:This isn't even an off year, it's an off off year. The VA gov year races tend to match federal off years in turnout. axeil posted:GOP counties looking uh...not great for Gillespie Unfortunately Tazewell has low turnout percentages in general and even at 22% now they could easily exceed the 2013 turnout of 30%. We’ll have to keep an eye on that as well as the margins.
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Nov 7, 2017 20:54
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https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/927991987638292482?s=17 2020 electoral map?
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Nov 7, 2017 21:14
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Oxxidation posted:Electoral history shows it being divided almost right down the middle between D and R since 2008 and there's no clear trend in favor of one party over the other. Yes it’ll depend on the margins. Meanwhile I’m watching Crystal Skull so no matter what happens in the election it won’t be the worst thing I experience today.
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Nov 7, 2017 21:29
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DACK FAYDEN posted:This is hilarious. 49 states are like "who's this moron the President is talking about?" and the only state where people vote are like "quick who is the other guy?!" If you look closely, Maryland is also looking up Northam. Hope is a lie but Arlington is at 48% turnout with hours to go. https://twitter.com/ArlingtonVotes/status/927997547997810689?s=17
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Nov 7, 2017 21:46
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:What was the turnout for Arlington in 2013? 48%
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Nov 7, 2017 21:50
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scuz posted:I've been all over the local news maps and haven't seen any kind of exit polling for Minneapolis municipal elections, anyone have any juice on this? RCV is awesome except for the fact that it inflames my want-it-now-ism. You will almost never see exit polling in municipal elections. You’ll have to wait. Shimrra Jamaane posted:Holy poo poo if we hit like 60 today 60 seems on the outer edge of whats possible. 2012 turnout was just a hair under 60 though so the closer we get to that the more votes we’re bagging. farraday fucked around with this message at 21:59 on Nov 7, 2017 |
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Nov 7, 2017 21:56
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Prince William seems a bit low but Falls Church looks on pace to match 2013 Prince William got hit particularly hard with the absentee ballot stick this year totalling 13k votes. Given that there were roughly 100k votes in 2013 and factoring population growth we can estimate 10% or so added onto that figure. They’re probably doing fine for turnout.
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Nov 7, 2017 22:47
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/927986553217081344 They’re being conservative if that’s the estimate. https://twitter.com/AlexandriaVAGov/status/928014589324865537?s=17
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Nov 7, 2017 22:52
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Lightning Knight posted:God dammit Virginia don't let me down. Virginia let *you* down? Excuse me but I have heard tell you’ve refered to us as a State and you think Plymouth was a better colony than Jamestown! I say good day!
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Nov 7, 2017 22:57
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axeil posted:You ever been to Jamestown? One of the coolest adult vacations I ever did was, dorky enough, Colonial Williamsburg + Jamestown. It's crazy walking around the Jamestown ruins and realizing just how old it is. It's also really, really pretty in the fall. Yeah Colonial Williamsburg has some really neat stuff. I was a rooomate with one of the historical interpreters and she had a closet full of old timey costumes. Jamestown is neat too but frankly early colonists were insane.
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Nov 7, 2017 23:06
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Yeah, in fall. All summer though you’re swimming through air soup. I’ll take NOVA where atleast we can pretend to be civilized in August.
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Nov 7, 2017 23:16
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https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825?s=17 DO NOT TRUST EARLY EXITS
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Nov 7, 2017 23:27
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axeil posted:What's the best site for looking at results with a fancy map? Famcy maps are for losers you should look at spreadsheets which are for losers with big hairy eyebrows.
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Nov 7, 2017 23:50
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Blitz7x posted:"don't take down this Robert e Lee statue" in Virginia is much different than "don't take down this Robert e Lee statue" in Tucson Yes, it’s even more inportant we take them down in VA, but I realize not all these fuckers understand that so we’re taking this slow. End the prohibition on locals deciding to do it themselves is a good start.
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Nov 8, 2017 00:07
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/928035493941477376 In 2013 the absentee were about 5% of turnout, can’t find a number for this year just a news article with local government official saying a lot more absentee votes. Figure 7% to be conservative imo.
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Nov 8, 2017 00:19
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Quorum posted:I've been taking polls for what people want to replace Monument Avenue with, so far my suggestion of Wahunsenecawh/Chief Powhatan for Jeb! Stuart's place is meeting with moderate acceptance but everyone can get behind dynamiting Jeff Davis and replacing him with Elizabeth van Lew JEFF DAVIS WASNT EVEN VIRGINIAN AAARGH Seriously gently caress that piece of confederate lost cause poo poo in particular. No one liked him.
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Nov 8, 2017 00:21
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:here's your one chance fancy don't let me down 
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Nov 8, 2017 00:26
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/928041878213324800 Absentee was about 4% in 2013 no info on this year.
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Nov 8, 2017 00:43
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really good news
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Too early to call sounds good to me. I think the pros have been looking at the same turnout fogures we’re seeing. Let’s see the numbers come in.
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Nov 8, 2017 01:03
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