2017 State-Level Elections: America's "Special" Children

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2017 State-Level Elections: America's "Special" Children

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

If Corey Stewart pulls this one out.... that could be an indicator of one chaotic 2018. I rejected out of hand the idea that demotivated establishment conservatives would see their asses kicked in primaries by the Trump wing but if that becomes a trend, next year will be one hell of a year.

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 01:13

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 02:29

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Oxxidation posted:

I'm sure they've already got a dozen narratives primed to go, each one more insane than the last.

Establishment stole it from Corey Stewart, who will proceed to either challenge Kaine or parachute somewhere else, the Minnesotan gently caress. CWHW!

For other races:
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/928057012776263682
https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/928058121993510913

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 01:45

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Pour one out for all the massacred takes about What Northam's Loss Says About Dems.

And if the margin really does creep up to something ridiculous, primary season is going to be hell on incumbent Rs

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 01:52

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Young Hegelian posted:

Dems currently leading in 15 R-held delegate districts? Am I possibly reading this right? Don't check targeted, check all contested.

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/house/

The importance of recruiting a motivated base into running at all levels. Dem numbers are allegedly well up nationwide, which is a huge part of the groundwork for something 2010esque *checks watch* 8,735 hours from now.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 02:07

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

cheetah7071 posted:

Is this the kind of rout that makes 2018 senate matter or do you need like D+20 for that

Senate's a very different dynamic and the candidates running will matter tremendously. There, you're looking more state-by-state. Some similar dynamics may be in play though. Running legitimate D contenders in state and house races across Texas may, for instance, boost Beto against Cruz ("Cruz will win no matter what, but I like this Johnny kid running for the State Senate so I'll vote for him. Might as well put one down for Beto too").

Nationwide, the House needs something like D+8 to flip. If they breach the gerrymander though, it'll go quickly. That may be what we're seeing here tonight.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 02:12

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

mcmagic posted:

Perez is on MSNBC taking a victory lap that he had nothing to do with. Meh.

never change

Your Boy Fancy posted:

Folks,

If you post again at any point in the next 48 hours, it'd better to be provide an alibi and let us live vicariously through your bacchanalia.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 02:23

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Early returns have the Medicaid expansion outrunning Hillary in Maine. Outside of the mindboggling insanity of

Your Boy Fancy posted:

ALL BLUE EVERYTHING MOTHERFUCKERS

Maine's expansion is the last open question of the evening. WA-Sen will likely be a few days out before any call is made.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 02:35

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

axeil posted:

No..

There is another...

Sorry, that's what I meant by quoting Fancy :getin:

cheetah7071 posted:

My memory is hazy but I think intermediate vote counts do get reported in WA but it isn't by precinct or anything. Anything but a D blowout seems unlikely so we'll probably know tonight

I'd be surprised if we get a call, but then, tonight's been all about surprising me.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 02:39

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

axeil posted:

here's a crazy thought.

the VA Senate is currently 21-19 in the GOP's favor. All the dems need for full control if they win the House is a single retirement or party flip.

It's a shame that's never happened before!

:getin:

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 02:45

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

mcmagic posted:

Perez is on MSNBC taking a victory lap that he had nothing to do with. Meh.

For further context on why this is the dumbest loving take of the evening:

Democrats Go �All-In� for Virginia Governor�s Race--7/25/17 posted:

by ALEX SEITZ-WALD

WASHINGTON � The Democratic National Committee is sending $1.5 million and several top staffers to Virginia to boost gubernatorial nominee Ralph Northam, whose war chest was depleted after a tough primary campaign, an official told NBC News.

It�s a significant financial and personnel investment for a national party that has underperformed in fundraising expectations and a reflection of the importance of this year�s elections in Virginia, where Democrats are also hoping to make gains in the House of Delegates and hold onto state-wide offices.

�The DNC is all-in in Virginia,� DNC Chairman Tom Perez said in a statement. �We are training organizers, doubling our boots on the ground, and making significant investments in our digital and data operations that will help lift Democrats to victory up and down the state ballot.�

In addition to doubling the number of paid field organizers in the state, the money will be used to beef up the party�s operations in the state, including training, digital and tech.

Perez is also sending three of his top political aides, including Chief of Staff Sam Cornale, DNC Political and Organizing Director Amanda Brown Lierman, and DNC political adviser Ramsey Reid, who ran get-out-the-vote operations for the Virginia Democratic Coordinated Campaign in 2016.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 03:04

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Philly's DA has come in as well :siren:

_{I didn't see this posted yet}
https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/928076943119011840

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 03:12

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

~*gently caress Josh Barro*~

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/928078406541029378

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 03:15

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

The Glumslinger posted:

Maintainance, but if they take back the house, they can get rid of a bunch of awful barriers that make it harder to vote

They also get the incumbency advantage.

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 03:22

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Teddybear posted:

The Dems are going to dump what money they can and boost his chances however they can. This race shows that Democrats know how to win elections, especially against Trumpy folks like Gillespie and Moore. It'll be tight, but they'll have the best shot at Alabama for probably a decade or more.

The story I quoted upthread from July makes me wonder if this DNC isn't better suited for statewide up & down ballot elections than it is for the specials we'd seen prior to today (and will see in AL-SEN).

# ¿ Nov 8, 2017 03:54

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/929724035725918208

via PlumLine, presented without comment or critique

quote:

This means it is likely that Moore, barring other developments, will stay in the race. And guess what: He could still very well win.

Top Democrats do think the chances that their nominee, Doug Jones, could still somehow prevail have improved. After speaking with senior Democrats familiar with the campaign�s thinking, here�s the view among them:

Democrats doubt that Moore (unless something even more shocking comes out) will step down. The stance of many Republicans, especially Trump, leaves him plenty of room to stay in. Plus, the response from chief Moore sponsors such as Stephen K. Bannon � that the liberal establishment and the media are conspiring to persecute Moore � sets a narrative that makes it less likely he�ll quit. How can Moore capitulate to that nefarious alliance? Many of his voters will see him as the persecuted party and root for him to persevere.

Some Republicans do appear to be looking for a way to get Moore to quit. But if he did, Moore would remain on the ballot in the Dec. 12 election, and Republicans would have to find a write-in candidate. Top Democrats think this could be problematic for Republicans, because a chunk of Moore supporters would probably stay home or vote for him anyway � seeing him, again, as the persecuted victim � possibly splitting the Republican vote.

But for now this looks unlikely. And regardless, the fact that Moore would remain on the ballot � rendering the write-in option tough for Republicans � perhaps helps explain the GOP �if true� language. If Republicans do end up stuck with Moore, that formulation lays the groundwork for them to retain a Senate seat even as these charges fade away, forever unresolved.

Top Democrats believe that for Jones to somehow win, three things have to happen. Democratic-leaning independents and Democrats � especially African Americans � have to be unusually energized. Republicans have to be substantially less energized. And some untold number of moderate Republicans � especially moderate Republican women � have to do more than just decide they can�t stomach Moore; they have to vote for a Democrat.

Jones � who went after the Ku Klux Klan and, as a former prosecutor, has a bio that some moderate Republicans might accept � is theoretically well positioned to both energize the Democratic base and win crossovers. And Democrats think the new allegations could make these goals more likely. They could further energize the base. They could demoralize at least some Republican voters (though they could energize those who believe Moore is being persecuted). And if there�s anything that might get moderate Republican women to vote for a Democrat as a statement against Moore, it�s this.

Even so, national Democrats are still hesitant to get involved deeply in the race. Here�s the thinking: The race should be seen as nothing more than a contrast between unifying, temperamentally calm prosecutor Jones, vs. the bundle of traits that render Moore unfit for office � the flouting of the rule of law, the belief that homosexuality should be illegal, and, now, the accusations of sexual predation on a teenager. The trick in coming days will be to provide support for Jones to run a capable operation that gets out the Democratic vote without any show of force by the national party that could upend efforts to woo those crossover Republicans.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2017 20:44

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# ¿ May 12, 2024 02:29

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

https://twitter.com/chpbrownlee/status/946258548752900098

The expert behind the 1 in 15 billion claim, you ask?

https://twitter.com/chpbrownlee/status/946262645337976832

:getin:

(This is going to get ignored harder than TPUSA at student activity fairs)

# ¿ Dec 28, 2017 07:34

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2017 State-Level Elections: America's "Special" Children