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Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Keep in mind that's JUST the Afghan soldiers who were killed. That's not counting desertions, defections, and wounded who are unable to fight anymore.

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Svartvit
Jun 18, 2005

al-Qabila samaa Bahth

Squalid posted:

I'm curious now what kind of comparisons are made, because I'm not sure I quite understood where he was going with it.

I think I've shared with you before some of the ways I think the US counter-terrorism strategy is self defeating, and this interview was one of the first times I've heard government officials echoing the way I feel. Policy makers have long recognized that truly defeating Al Qaeda outright via force of arms alone is a pipe dream. Instead they've pivoted towards more modest objectives like preventing AQAP from launching foreign attacks. One way they have accomplished this is by targeting mid-level Al Qaeda leaders with drone strikes, reducing organizational effectiveness and keeping operations disrupted.

I think this strategy was effective in Iraq in 2007, but has been a disaster in places like Yemen and Somalia. Without any real capacity to capitalize on organizational weakness these targeted strikes have had the same effect on Al Qaeda as a weak dose of anti-biotics on a bacterial population. By repeatedly killing their leaders but allowing the organizations to survive, we've simply put an immense amount of selective pressure on Al Qaeda affiliates, forcing them to "mutate" into something altogether leaner, more resilient and efficient, immune to the kind of self-destructive cults of personality that have weakened insurgent groups like the Shining Path.

Al Qaeda in Somalia was maybe a dozen or so guys and hardly any more sympathizers before America's "Shadow War" of the mid aughts catalyzed their evolution into Al Shabaab, and their ascendancy with the Islamic Courts Union likely never wouldn't have happened if the flood of anti-terror money into the pockets of local warlords hadn't reignited civil conflict in Mogadishu. Similarly the Houthi used Saleh's receipt of US anti-terror funding as justification of their resistance against his government.

edit: new report from SIGAR counted 6,785 Afghan soldiers killed in the first 10 months of last year, and more than 800 killed in January-February this year. They found more civilians died last year than any year since they started keeping records in 2009

The IRA comparison is essentially about rapprochment with al-Qaeda's (et al) base. Ali is not a government official, but I'm sure that if you dig you'll find a slew of US officials slamming US CT policy in all sorts of manners.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Problem is the USA already effectively supports Sunni supremacism in the Middle East. What more could Al-Qaeda's base want?

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/new-afghanistan-troop-plan-goes-to-white-house-next-week

The Pentagon may send its plan for more troops to Trump as soon as next week.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

icantfindaname posted:

Problem is the USA already effectively supports Sunni supremacism in the Middle East. What more could Al-Qaeda's base want?

Sunni supremacism but with AQ installed in power, duh.

Svartvit
Jun 18, 2005

al-Qabila samaa Bahth

icantfindaname posted:

Problem is the USA already effectively supports Sunni supremacism in the Middle East. What more could Al-Qaeda's base want?

I'm sure you're a cool dude with a jazzy attitude and all, but the way you repeat Saudi/Iranian propaganda about Islamic affairs in this thread is making you look a little foolish.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

On Thursday the US military suffered its first fatality in Somalia since 1993, five weeks after Trump approved expanded counter terror operations in the Horn of Africa.

Frankly I'm just surprised there haven't been more deaths, given the scale of US activity in the country in the past few years.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/861710089551577088

quote:

The plan comes at the end of a sweeping policy review built around the president’s desire to reverse worsening security in Afghanistan and “start winning” again, said one U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

The new strategy, which has the backing of top Cabinet officials, would authorize the Pentagon, not the White House, to set troop numbers in Afghanistan and give the military far broader authority to use airstrikes to target Taliban militants. It would also lift Obama-era restrictions that limited the mobility of U.S. military advisers on the battlefield.

The net result of the changes would be to reverse moves by President Barack Obama to steadily limit the U.S. military role in Afghanistan, along with the risk to American troops and the cost of the war effort, more than 15 years after U.S. forces first arrived there.

Trump is expected to make a final call on the strategy before a May 25 NATO summit in Brussels that he plans to attend.

There's been news that McMaster is on the outs with Trump, but I think he'll approve this plan.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!
gently caress yeah forever war :trumppop:

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

OhFunny posted:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/861710089551577088


There's been news that McMaster is on the outs with Trump, but I think he'll approve this plan.

Who could replace him? Anyway I doubt the anyone in the military really has the power to do anything that could actually fix Afghanistan, and little bandaids like this are just stalling for time

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Squalid posted:

Who could replace him? Anyway I doubt the anyone in the military really has the power to do anything that could actually fix Afghanistan, and little bandaids like this are just stalling for time

Presumably Trump will go "I want a tremendous plan that lets us win Afghanistan bigly in a quick way, because clearly fixing Afghanistan isn't so hard as Obummer told me it is". Then he'll ask some generals on how to win Afghanistan bigly, and they'll presumably try to explain to him how the operation would need to be on the scale of the post-WW2 occupation of half of Europe and that it would cost like five trillion dollars. Trump will go ":sad: that even our generals are so low-energy and keep talking about reality and stuff, I'm going to make a yuuuuge deal like you've never seen before that'll bring down costs while making us win Afghanistan even more bigly", make an announcement, fail to get money from Congress, and due to having the attention span of a goldfish wonder why a couple hundred more US troops got blown up while the Taliban still control half of Afghanistan after two years of """"surging""" a couple thousand troops back into the desert.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Squalid posted:

Who could replace him? Anyway I doubt the anyone in the military really has the power to do anything that could actually fix Afghanistan, and little bandaids like this are just stalling for time

I'd guess John Bolton.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Welp I've been waiting a long time to hear some straight on honest talk from US officials on Afghanistan. At least we're looking at this with clear eyes.

"US Intel Chief: Situation in Afghanistan Will 'Almost Certainly Deteriorate' posted:

The United States’ top intelligence official believes the military conflict in Afghanistan will likely deteriorate in the coming years, even if the U.S. commits more troops to the 16 year-old fight.

Speaking Thursday during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on global threats, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said the Taliban is likely to make gains in rural regions while the government is being undermined by the country’s “dire economic situation.”

“Intelligence community assesses that the political and security situation in Afghanistan will almost certainly deteriorate through 2018, even with a modest increase in military assistance by the United States and its partners,” he said.

Coats said Afghanistan is likely to struggle to curb its dependence on foreign support until it can either contain the insurgency or reach a peace agreement with the Taliban, though he said he is not optimistic about the Afghan military’s ability to defeat its enemies.

“Afghan security forces’ performance will probably worsen due to a combination of Taliban operations, combat casualties, desertions, poor logistic support and weak leadership,” he said.

OhFunny posted:

I'd guess John Bolton.

John Bolton is epic.

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

blowfish posted:

Presumably Trump will go "I want a tremendous plan that lets us win Afghanistan bigly in a quick way, because clearly fixing Afghanistan isn't so hard as Obummer told me it is". Then he'll ask some generals on how to win Afghanistan bigly, and they'll presumably try to explain to him how the operation would need to be on the scale of the post-WW2 occupation of half of Europe and that it would cost like five trillion dollars. Trump will go ":sad: that even our generals are so low-energy and keep talking about reality and stuff, I'm going to make a yuuuuge deal like you've never seen before that'll bring down costs while making us win Afghanistan even more bigly", make an announcement, fail to get money from Congress, and due to having the attention span of a goldfish wonder why a couple hundred more US troops got blown up while the Taliban still control half of Afghanistan after two years of """"surging""" a couple thousand troops back into the desert.

Trump can ask his buddy Putin for help with Afghanistan.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Jack2142 posted:

Trump can ask his buddy Putin for help with Afghanistan.

Putin is helping by hosting talks between Pakistan, the Taliban, Iran, the U.A.E, and the Afghan government; The United States was not invited and also Russia miiiight be funding the Taliban

Dead Reckoning
Sep 13, 2011
Look, we've been frenemies with Pakistan for decades, and they are 100% definitely funding and providing material support to the Taliban.

Also, I imagine that SIGAR just keeps a bottle of rotgut whiskey on their desk at all times these days.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Squalid posted:

Putin is helping by hosting talks between Pakistan, the Taliban, Iran, the U.A.E, and the Afghan government; The United States was not invited and also Russia miiiight be funding the Taliban

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Can't wait for my kids to be old enough to serve in the Afghanistan War 19 years from now.

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

Dead Reckoning posted:

Look, we've been frenemies with Pakistan for decades, and they are 100% definitely funding and providing material support to the Taliban.

Also, I imagine that SIGAR just keeps a bottle of rotgut whiskey on their desk at all times these days.

If only the drat Dutch didn't help the Pakistani's build nukes we wouldn't have to deal with their bullshit... :argh:

Sergg posted:

Can't wait for my kids to be old enough to serve in the Afghanistan War 19 years from now.

I mean the UK has been sending people to die in Afghanistan for like 6 generations at this point? That was one clever and depressing thing about the Sherlock Holmes modern day adaption that Watson getting wounded in Afghanistan didn't have to be changed at all.

Jack2142 fucked around with this message at 09:19 on May 13, 2017

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
Abdul Rashid Dostum, Afghanistan’s vice-president, has left the country after a six-month standoff following allegations that he illegally detained a political rival and had him raped with an assault rifle.

quote:

His departure for Turkey makes it unlikely that he will face trial, calling into question more than a decade of western efforts to instill the rule of law in Afghanistan and help build public trust in the government.

The allegations against the vice-president triggered a political crisis that has engulfed Afghanistan since last November when Dostum abducted Ahmad Ishchi, a politician from Dostum’s home province of Jowzjan, from a stadium in the northern part of the country. Ishchi was held for five days, during which time he says he was severely beaten and raped with the barrel of a rifle by nine of Dostum’s bodyguards.

Return of warlord Hekmatyar adds to Afghan political tensions.

quote:

Kabul — When the fugitive warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar returned home to a lavish official welcome last month, abandoning his 16-year insurgency and forgiven for a history of wartime abuses, he was ­expected to quickly take up the cause of peace and set a conciliatory example for Taliban insurgents.

Instead, the fiery Islamist leader has landed like a bombshell in the roiling world of Afghan politics, publicly insulting President Ashraf Ghani, reneging on a pledge to disarm several thousand loyal fighters, and leaving the stunned capital wondering if inviting him back was a huge mistake.

At 69, Hekmatyar cuts an avuncular and scholarly figure, but his name still strikes fear and horror here. Once an anti-Soviet militia hero, he became notorious during later civil conflicts for his cruelty to captives and for shelling Kabul neighborhoods to ruins. He was ­allowed to return to Afghanistan only after U.N. anti-terrorism sanctions against him were lifted.

Taliban Launch Rocket Attack and Kill at Least 20 Afghan Police Officers

quote:

KABUL, Afghanistan — In a two-pronged attack in a southern Afghan province, the Taliban shelled the provincial capital city with rockets and then raided police outposts in a neighboring district, killing at least 20 officers and wounding six others, officials said on Sunday.

The provincial governor of Zabul, Bismillah Afghanmal, said that as many as 1,000 Taliban fighters stormed the police outposts in the Shajoy district, along the highway to the regional hub of Kandahar, in an early morning attack.

As the assault in Shajoy was unfolding, the neighboring provincial capital city of Qalat was shelled with a barrage of rockets. Some landed on the governor’s guesthouse and the police headquarters nearby.


Things aren't going great and a few thousand US soldiers aren't going to prop things up.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

This is Dostum's second exile in Turkey, the first time was also for allegedly raping someone. He's still claiming he will return following some medical care, but who knows, maybe he'd rather retire.


The most disturbing thing in that article about Hekmatyar is that he apparently has electoral ambitions. Ethnicity is a potent faultline in Afghanistan, and the Afghan government is delicately balanced. Since the American occupation the Presidency has been held by two Pashtuns, Mohammed Karzai and Ashraf Ghani who have advocated for an inclusive government that represents all peoples and faiths.

Nevertheless communal relations have often been tense, and voting often splits down ethnic lines. In the 2014 Presidential election Tajiks and Uzbeks generally went for Abdullah Abdullah while Pashtun's went for Ghani, and there was a terrible political crisis following credible accusations of ballot stuffing. A decidedly extreme Pashtun like Hekmatyar getting to the final round of the Presidential vote, or even pressuring someone like Ghani to posture more aggressively, is an explosive situation that could tear the Afghan government apart. These ethnic tensions are one reason it was difficult for the government to move on Dostum despite him being so objectively horrible, Ghani didn't want to lean on him too hard because it could alienate other Uzbeks.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

The Taliban have been busy over the last week, in addition to the attack in Zabul OhFunny shared, there was another attack n a neighboring province south of Kabul and another in the northeast.

Afghan forces, Taliban battle for control of Kunar

quote:

The Taliban began its assault on the districts on the evening of May 15. The Afghan military claimed it killed 22 Taliban fighters and wounded five more, while suffering no casualties of its own. The military also said it had repelled the jihadists’ attacks on “security posts located in Shegal, Watapur, Chapadara, Marwara district and several other areas,” Khaama Press reported.

In a statement released on Voice of Jihad, the Taliban boasted that it killed “as many as 22 puppets,” or Afghan security personnel, and wounded “a large number of them” during “a full-scale operation in eastern Kunar province.” The Taliban claimed that five of its fighters were killed and three more were wounded. According to the Taliban, it targeted “military units, bases as well as government facilities in the provincial capital of Kunar province and other district [sic].”

Taliban assaults provincial capital in southeastern Afghanistan

quote:

“This morning Ghazni’s Waghaz district was conquered. Numerous enemy fatalities, 2 APCs destroyed, 2 APCs plus weaponry captured,” Taliban spokesman Zahibullah Mujahid said on his official Twitter feed on May 20. “Dih Yak centre and provincial centers [Ghazni City] under attack,” he noted in a separate tweet.

The fighting in Ghazni was confirmed by Afghan officials, who claimed that 25 Taliban fighters and two security personnel were killed during clashes in Ghazni City. Police officials told India Express that the Taliban “blew up the district governor’s compound with explosives” during the fighting.

Afghan officials would not confirm the Taliban’s claim that it overran Waghaz. The Taliban captured an unknown number of policemen and wounded the chief of police for the district, India Express reported.

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Car bomb in the diplomatic quarter of Kabul. 80 dead and climbing.

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
The pictures are horrific. One bomb was that powerful? :(

It's just incredible to me that we can be involved in a war this disastrous and it's barely considered an important news topic from day to day.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://twitter.com/AndrRoy/status/869848950064513024

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
Looks like over 450 injured.

Fanatic
Mar 9, 2006

:eyepop:


That's a big loving crater. :stare:

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

The Taliban have gotten pretty good at blowing up helicopters with IEDs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYi0YhVgNPc&t=110s

This like at least the third time the Taliban have filmed themselves destroying a helicopter with a mine.

That truck bomb last week has been attributed to the Haqqani network, although they have declined to take credit. Possibly because it was supposed to target the foreign embassy district but was detonated early after being stopped by police, and only managed to kill Afghans.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...db2e_story.html

3 US troops killed and 1 wounded by an Afghan soldier.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

RIP

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Squalid posted:

The Taliban have gotten pretty good at blowing up helicopters with IEDs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYi0YhVgNPc&t=110s

This like at least the third time the Taliban have filmed themselves destroying a helicopter with a mine.

That truck bomb last week has been attributed to the Haqqani network, although they have declined to take credit. Possibly because it was supposed to target the foreign embassy district but was detonated early after being stopped by police, and only managed to kill Afghans.

Why are the Iraqis fighting the Taliban now?

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Bip Roberts posted:

Why are the Iraqis fighting the Taliban now?

? I think you're going o have to spell this one out for me.

SimonCat
Aug 12, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo
College Slice

Squalid posted:

? I think you're going o have to spell this one out for me.

The Taliban are based in Afghanistan, they really don't have a presence in Iraq.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

SimonCat posted:

The Taliban are based in Afghanistan, they really don't have a presence in Iraq.

oh. . . lol I see now. To be honest I never even looked at the video title, I first saw the video when it was hosted on facebook linked through a think tank's blog and searched youtube for 'helicopter Taliban ied" and that was the same footage linked elsewhere, I don't know why the name is stupid.

In other news Al Shabaab overran a Puntland military base, killed upwards of 30 soldiers and may have seized as many as 15 military vehicles. Unrelated to this incident, the US just launched its first drone strike in Somalia since Trump relaxed restrictions on offensive strikes in the country. This attack was on the opposite side of the country in southern Somalia, where Al Shabaab has recently escalated its operations against and within Kenya.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

CNN posted:

Washington (CNN)The Pentagon is expected to soon announce that Defense Secretary James Mattis will now have authority to make decisions about how many US troops are deployed to Afghanistan without first having to get formal agreement from the White House, according to a US official familiar with the plan.

If this is true, there will almost certainly be a troop increase. Expect as many as 5,000 additional US troops to deploy to Afghanistan. There's also been talk of some American allies deploying small numbers of extra personnel as well.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
We're going to throw a lot troops into Afghanistan over the next few years.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

OhFunny posted:

We're going to throw a lot troops into Afghanistan over the next few years.

Hell yeah we are. Trumps gonna harden the generation of liberals up with a little reoccupation. 90k re enlistment bonuses for infantry? Yeah im gonna go teach kids how to kill and buy myself a tesla in the process. Just wsit till those little poo poo barrickstangs in the company parking lot try and race my 90d

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
Guess it will be "interesting" to find out just how long this pointless meat-grinder that wastes billions of dollars can last. 2025? 2035?

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...omepage%2Fstory

There it is. 4,000 more troops headed to Afghanistan.

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Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
How does 4000 troops do anything for anyone at all?

Like, even if you are somehow a neocon in 2017, if you really want to change the situation in Afghanistan you'd need many multitudes of that number. You'd run into the same problems the initial invasion and the whole Iraq shitshow did being that dudes with guns alone isn't going to magically make a country a nice place, but you know, let's just put that aside. Even if you believe dudes with guns is going to solve anything, can anyone argue with a straight face another 4000 is going to do jack poo poo?

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