AFL 2017 - Year of the Dog (elephant! elephant!)

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > AFL 2017 - Year of the Dog (elephant! elephant!)

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The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

BTW I'm slowly getting my numberwang site up to speed for the new season. It's currently in AFLW mode because why not.

# ¿ Mar 5, 2017 13:53

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 22:25

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

I only realised today Cotton On were the apparel supplier for the AFLW. Huh.

# ¿ Mar 7, 2017 08:07

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Spedman posted:

Odd seeing an AFL jumper with no advertising on the back

Old-skool 80s. Like the Bears.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2017 13:47

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

BrigadierSensible posted:

How would you structure a finals series for an 8 team comp?

A final 4 with two simple semis? This has the benefits of being simple, but also the downside of half the teams in the comp make the finals

A final 3 with the minor premier making the GF and 2 vs 3 for the right to face them? This has teh benefits of rewarding number 1, and making the finals series elite. But only adds one game and compared to the current system only benefits one team.

Something else?

Personally I'd go with the semis idea. Simple, and easily understood.

Old-skool McIntyre Four, although that'd take three weeks. (Actually this used to take four weeks in the VFL as there was one final a week when football on Sunday was for heathens.)
SF 1: 1 vs 2 - winner goes straight into GF with a week off, loser plays Prelim
SF 2: 3 vs 4 - winner plays Prelim, loser is knocked out
PF: Obviously the winner goes to the Grand final.

At this point a final three makes more sense with the Minor Premier enjoying that week off, at least until the comp gets expanded.

# ¿ Mar 12, 2017 06:28

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

I like Brisbane more than Sydney even though it's basically a swamp town.

# ¿ Mar 13, 2017 14:32

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

At least I'm close to Beechworth, Bridge Road is pretty nice stuff with the odd weird variant like chestnut beer. I don't drink a huge lot of beer these days though so I can sort of splurge on that when I feel like it.

I think Squires turned up around 2000, not sure when they got bought out by CUB though.

# ¿ Mar 14, 2017 07:25

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

He's done a reverse Jarman.

# ¿ Mar 15, 2017 14:11

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

drunkill posted:

Bruce Mcavany has luekemia, which is why he didn't do the aus open.

Aww gently caress. Yes he's kind of annoying but not BT levels of annoying.

# ¿ Mar 17, 2017 09:00

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Well I think Melbourne should win, but they'll also have to rely on Collingwood to do the right thing tomorrow, so I don't know.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2017 06:45

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Solemn Sloth posted:

idk, if we keep this pace up (5 goals to 1 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter) we might actually make up percentage?

Yeah, but not enough I think. At HT Melbourne need another 9 goals without answer just to match Adelaide's percentage before tomorrow.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2017 07:27

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Solemn Sloth posted:

although it is worth noting that Adelaide's percentage is high enough that a close but high scoring victory would still bring it down a chunk.

Yeah, a close shootout situation would erode the percentage quite a bit, it'll be easier to figure out once this current game is done. But really Melbourne will just want Collingwood to win at this point. :barf:

quote:

I just saw an ad for vegemite bruschetta

everytime I see the ad for the premiership special it still weirds me out to think that the dogs are the reigning premiers

The Doggies won the flag!

# ¿ Mar 18, 2017 07:40

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Nice.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2017 08:12

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Nice to see a good score too.

Anyway Adelaide could win 65-64 tomorrow and fall behind on percentage, but that's not real likely as we've seen.

Easier to just say Melbourne need Collingwood to win now.

# ¿ Mar 18, 2017 08:21

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Might have to take a more serious look at those "Adelaide wins but still finishes 3rd" scenarios.

# ¿ Mar 19, 2017 04:58

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

never rely on Collingwood to do anything right

Perkins is the most Lockett-like player I've seen since Lockett himself

# ¿ Mar 19, 2017 05:17

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

The dream is over

# ¿ Mar 19, 2017 05:20

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

I'll have my dumb ratings on the site tomorrow or Tuesday, but as a preview
Richmond by 5
W Bulldogs by 5
St Kilda by 3 (I'm tipping Melbourne though)
Sydney by 45
Gold Coast by 26
Hawthorn by 55
West Coast by 10
Adelaide by 14
Geelong by 43

(yeah those numbers are a little different to what I just posted on the toots, I had to fix a rounding function)

# ¿ Mar 19, 2017 12:47

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Also looking forward to Rd 7 with Sydney playing Brisbane at home because the line of that game is Sydney by 102 points.

# ¿ Mar 19, 2017 12:48

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

MysticalMachineGun posted:

This seems like it would be up Hume's alley: http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18912776/footy-forensics-introduces-advanced-afl-elo-based-ladder-prediction-rankings-statistics

Oh yeah, I also put my ~~predictions~~ forecasts into his comp as well. I misplaced my results but I'm doing a new gen just now. Gimme a few minutes.

# ¿ Mar 20, 2017 07:11

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

I have a feeling I did post these numbers a few weeks ago, but anyway.

Methodology:
- use my usual ratings based on last years' home-and-away performances, but regressed by 25%
- give teams a random nudge before each simulated season to account for bolters and divers
- sim each season game-by-game as I normally do (ie. work out par scores for each match from the previous step and then give them another random nudge)

Personally, I think Adelaide and Hawthorn might dip slightly, GWS should consolidate, West Coast should have a better year. Mid-range, I think Melbourne and St Kilda both have potential to improve but then you can say that about every team in the middle. Brisbane have to come up at some point. Essendon to be as rubbish as they were in 2015 now they've got that team back.

# ¿ Mar 20, 2017 07:30

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

pkid posted:

It's funny to see that the reigning premiers are only a 50/50 chance of making the 8 but then I remember they won from 7th last year.

They're a little stiffed by the draw too, I think, when I fed the sim a 34-round draw (2x17) the Bulldogs were about 52%.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2017 08:09

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

I still can't get over how leaky the Lions' defence was last year.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2017 13:40

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

beep beep boop computer says

ADE 16.3
SYD 16.0
GWS 15.0
GEE 14.8
WCE 14.2
WBD 13.0
HAW 12.8
NME 12.6
PAD 11.9
COL 10.8
MEL 10.2
STK 9.1
RIC 8.4
CAR 8.1
FRE 8.1
GCO 7.4
ESS 4.8
BRL 4.4

Myself, I don't the gently caress know.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2017 08:27

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

2015 Bombers weren't great.
2016 Bombers weren't great, although putting some legs into the kids certainly wouldn't have hurt - the year off for the lab rats probably won't have hurt either (at least no injuries) but they're still gonna be a year older.

I think the 2017 Bombers will be a bit better but they're looking at best a 8-10 win team, because they'd in the queue behind teams like St Kilda and Melbourne (maybe even Carlton or Port) that seem to have started to gel last year and could bolt in.

Because Adelaide kind of bungled their centre rebuild I think they'll slip a bit, but on balance they should still make the finals.

Similar dealy with Hawthorn, although I do rate Tom Mitchell, but the simple fact we've lost Sam, no matter how old he was getting, means there's going to have to be a different approach, because he was just so reliable. But having Roughy back is going to be good for us.

Having said that, from the middling teams I mentioned, only 1-2 of them would have to improve by 3-4 goals into the top half and you're looking at teams like Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong suddenly looking a bit vulnerable if they get on the skids early.

The two Sydney teams ought to finish Top 4. Don't know how the Doggies will go, actually, they'll either be confident as gently caress and play like it, or they could do the hangover thing. I hope they don't, they played a lot of fun footy last year.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2017 08:55

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Periphery posted:

Hume, can your computer easily figure out how many teams drop out of the 8 on average each year?

I could work it out with a few minute's work, sure. But watching footy at the mo'. You might have to remind me.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2017 09:29

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

The Deadly Hume posted:

I could work it out with a few minute's work, sure. But watching footy at the mo'. You might have to remind me.

OK, quick'n'dirty

1996 2 in: {'SYD', 'HAW'} out: {'RIC', 'WBD'}
1997 4 in: {'BRL', 'STK', 'ADE', 'WBD'} out: {'BRB', 'ESS', 'HAW', 'CAR'}
1998 2 in: {'MEL', 'ESS'} out: {'GEE', 'BRL'}
1999 3 in: {'BRL', 'PAD', 'CAR'} out: {'MEL', 'STK', 'ADE'}
2000 3 in: {'GEE', 'MEL', 'HAW'} out: {'WCE', 'SYD', 'PAD'}
2001 4 in: {'SYD', 'ADE', 'PAD', 'RIC'} out: {'GEE', 'MEL', 'NME', 'WBD'}
2002 4 in: {'WCE', 'MEL', 'NME', 'COL'} out: {'SYD', 'HAW', 'CAR', 'RIC'}
2003 2 in: {'SYD', 'FRE'} out: {'MEL', 'NME'}
2004 3 in: {'GEE', 'MEL', 'STK'} out: {'ADE', 'COL', 'FRE'}
2005 2 in: {'NME', 'ADE'} out: {'BRL', 'ESS'}
2006 3 in: {'COL', 'FRE', 'WBD'} out: {'GEE', 'NME', 'PAD'}
2007 4 in: {'GEE', 'NME', 'PAD', 'HAW'} out: {'MEL', 'STK', 'FRE', 'WBD'}
2008 2 in: {'STK', 'WBD'} out: {'WCE', 'PAD'}
2009 3 in: {'BRL', 'ESS', 'CAR'} out: {'SYD', 'NME', 'HAW'}
2010 3 in: {'SYD', 'HAW', 'FRE'} out: {'BRL', 'ESS', 'ADE'}
2011 2 in: {'WCE', 'ESS'} out: {'FRE', 'WBD'}
2012 3 in: {'NME', 'ADE', 'FRE'} out: {'ESS', 'STK', 'CAR'}
2013 3 in: {'PAD', 'CAR', 'RIC'} out: {'WCE', 'NME', 'ADE'}
2014 2 in: {'NME', 'ESS'} out: {'CAR', 'COL'}
2015 3 in: {'WCE', 'ADE', 'WBD'} out: {'GEE', 'ESS', 'PAD'}
2016 2 in: {'GEE', 'GWS'} out: {'FRE', 'RIC'}

Asterisk for 1997 since the merged Lions were more or less the Bears from 1996.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2017 09:48

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

It's weird watching Richmond without Ty Vickery muffing easy shots at goal.

Oh.

# ¿ Mar 23, 2017 10:26

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

it finally collapsed under the weight of its own javascript

# ¿ Mar 23, 2017 10:57

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Solemn Sloth posted:

Am I the only one who thinks the new yellow on richmonds jumper looks poo poo

I'm OK with it, it actually made their jumper stand out from Carlton's a bit more.

I think the sash is a tad wider too?

# ¿ Mar 23, 2017 12:26

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Solemn Sloth posted:

I legit cannot understand why anyone would pick melbourne to win today

You're playing St Kilda? There's plenty of bad juju on both sides...

# ¿ Mar 24, 2017 23:49

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

There's a few things to get used to tonight. When the Bombers got their first few goals I was thinking "this is gonna be a long season" but without playing spectacularly well we're back in front. The new Mitchell seems pretty good, not sold on this Striker Eureka guy yet though.

# ¿ Mar 25, 2017 10:37

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

12.19

# ¿ Mar 25, 2017 12:03

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Solemn Sloth posted:

Can't help but feel Mitchell and Lewis out there would be handy the last ten minutes of this game

I was thinking we were missing Brad Hill's zip more than anything. Sure he did some dumb things but at least he wasn't Ty Vickery.

# ¿ Mar 25, 2017 12:04

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Solemn Sloth posted:

I love that Ty never gives up finding on new dumb ways to gently caress up. Is Fitz still on your list? They'd make a great duo.

Yeah we picked Fitz back up. But we already had Schoenmakers so there's really a few too many spuds in the team at the moment.

I dunno, the kicking for goal was generally just terrible, all those sprayed shots :gonk:

. Maybe we can do better in weeks to come, but it's not an auspicious start and that sort of performance had the definite feel of "anywhere from 7 to 13 wins, finals, maybe" on the basis of a bunch of "brave" wins and dumb losses.

# ¿ Mar 25, 2017 12:19

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Like Richmond must pissing themselves laughing we took Vickery off their hands.

# ¿ Mar 25, 2017 12:19

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

To be clear I am really hating Vickery wearing a Hawthorn jumper.

# ¿ Mar 25, 2017 12:19

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

You never loving know with North, Adelaide and the G-Dubs will be close, Geelong should win but then again Fremantle might come out like 2016 never happened. They have two Hills now.

Not a bad week to forget your tips and cop the away teams, 5/6 so far. (I've got 3/6 and will count myself lucky to get to 5.)

# ¿ Mar 25, 2017 12:55

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

Hawthorn are really quite average now.

# ¿ Mar 26, 2017 13:02

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

pkid posted:

Hey Hume - are you able to see if this was the highest scoring round one in a while?
I was looking at the scores this morning and the lowest winning score was 98 points, which is pretty bloody high.

We had an average of 103.6 this weekend, the overall average last year was a tick under 90 off the top of my head. So pretty high. I'll run the numbers in a sec.

EDIT: OK here we go:

code:

If I recall last year started pretty brightly but then got bogged down.

The Deadly Hume fucked around with this message at 08:13 on Mar 27, 2017

# ¿ Mar 27, 2017 08:06

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# ¿ May 10, 2024 22:25

The Deadly Hume: May 26, 2004; Let's get a little crazy. Let's have some fun.

If you look sideways the goal square looks like a disabled parking space.

# ¿ Mar 30, 2017 09:53

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > AFL 2017 - Year of the Dog (elephant! elephant!)

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