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In terms of how liberalism will move forward, I'd bet the short term (2-4 years) future is bright. It's easy to see the fracturing of social liberalism with those fighting for liberal ideals grouping and ungrouping, trying to out 'left' the other and the perception of 'identity politics' policing itself to death. Voter turnout among democrats was lower, signaling a lack of interest in either the party or the process. To me, this is the response to a progressive president and the perceived power he holds, politically and culturally as well as to the achievements of social liberal ideals in the past eight years. The popular vote and most reliable polls will show the U.S. is a majority left-leaning country. There is a traceable history of more social equality and progress. For example in 2009 54% of Americans opposed same-sex marriage while 37% favored it, recent polls show it's the opposite with 55% supporting and 37% opposing. 20 years ago you could say you absolutely thought marriage should be between a man and a woman, and in the same breath say you were a democrat and it would seem completely reasonable. With the progress made there are those that say it's not enough, find other inequalities to fight for and move further to the left. They will bring others with them, and it could be a natural step that society will make in time, but for many more it could be too much too soon. Those in the 55% that support marriage equality may not overlap enough with the 45% supporting the ACA today but could in 2018. This occurs on the conservative side too, pro-life doesn't always translate to a ban on Muslim immigration, etc. The difference is that conservatives, nationalists, fascists, or any other enemy of liberalism can unite under one commonality. They do not have the status quo. Whatever perception of Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Obama etc. people have, underlying it all is that they are liberal democrats and they have controlled the presidency for eight years. The goal of a conservative then is to bring about 'change', to end what they perceive is liberal control. In tandem, the anti-establishment crowd can rally behind any outsider that can convey a voice that opposes the political class. The perceived lack of power or control is a great motivator for voters. It gets people to vote because they can see it as a symbol of protest to the current status quo which, arguably, liberal ideals represent. What you will see is a regrouping, it will seem racial, ethnic, and gender issue groups will unite again to fight a common enemy, Donald Trump. Even their issues will seem more pressing because now there is a tangible oppressive threat and a more insidious target on them. It will appear that liberals now have something to fight for, rather than just trying to overreach their power and they will draw upon the majority of Americans that lean left.
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Jan 19, 2017 17:14
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Tiny Brontosaurus posted:Regarding turnout, they're great in presidential elections but not so great in off-year. Pretty much only old republicans show up for off-year, and that's why our country has so many conservative officials at the state and local level. That's something we urgently need to fix. Well to take a page out of the right's book, push the message that whatever happens in the next two years is the responsibility of the GOP from the top down. If there is a problem great, if not create the illusion of one. Let the conspiracy theories come back to the left and sow distrust and discontent among the government as a whole. I mean, at this point I can only see fear and anger motivating people to be politically involved anymore in non-presidential elections. There isn't enough to tangibly connect people to local politics unless they have a vested interest in it.
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Jan 19, 2017 20:51
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