Ramrod Hotshot posted:

Discussion of nuclear weapons is usually in regards to proliferation, or a potential nuclear danger posed by rogue states like Iran or North Korea. Still relatively undiscussed is the potential for nuclear war between the US and Russia, which I suppose is still considered somewhat of a dead issue, at least in the popular imagination, since the end of the cold war and a reduction in stockpiles. And yet, there's still enough weapons to destroy civilization, if not cause human extinction, and a risk they'll be used, particularly by accident.

Here's a list of times World War III was narrowly avoided. Also, this article is a good primer on the risk of accidental nuclear war, particularly in regard to our "launch-at-warning" Minuteman system.

To get a bit conjectural, I fear that the risk of an accident leading to a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia is rising sharply. Trump may act friendly (for now, he has a history of turning against former friends on a dime) toward Putin, but the rest of the government, given the allegations of hacking, a compromised election, and blackmail, is decidedly more hostile. Russia's intervention in Eastern Europe and Syria lead to more risks of confrontation with the west.

Even as "unhinged" as Trump seems, I don't think he'd want to launch a first strike, and he could be talked out of it even if he did. But in the midst of a crisis, for which there's now more risk than ever, combined with a false positive of a launch, what happens? In the "Norwegian Rocket" incident of 1995, Yeltsin actually opened up his nuclear football, the only time a head of state has ever done so. He decided to ignore what looked like an impending attack, and likely because he figured there was just no reason the US would be attacking, especially at that point in time. Would Trump do the same, if it looked like war was coming anyway? Would Putin ignore the warning, given the perception of Trump's irrationality?

Any thoughts on this? Are these fears overblown or understated?