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What if you have multiple surnames. Or none at all! What then???
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Feb 1, 2017 07:26
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TinTower posted:Only one Tory rebel: Ken Clarke. Yeah I was going to say, doesn't bode well for Remain-soft-brexit Tories defying the government and voting for the amendments they all want. They could push brexit down a different and more accountable path if they did, so I guess we'll see if any more of them break ranks spectralent posted:Yeah, but a three line whip over a symbolic measure? That's insane. Corbyn's lost a lot of trust I'd had in him over this. Well yeah, it is symbolic - that's sort of the whole point. Labour's choosing to take a strong official line, a decisive consistent stance, to try and position themselves better for what's coming up. A free vote goes against that, it's almost like officially abstaining. When there's a game plan like this (whatever it's worth) I don't really see what's weird about whipping on it All the talk and the responses to the resignations seem to be pretty amiable, like there aren't exactly any bridges being burned - and symbolically, any Labour MP who wants to vote No has to openly rebel against the official line, as an individual.
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Feb 1, 2017 22:55
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Pissflaps posted:In a world where Labour were doing there job properly there would actually be a side to defect to. May was able to squash any rebellion simply by committing to a white paper because the Remain lobby in the house is so weak. One Tory rebelling in a parliament where the leader of the Opposition is siding with the Tories is not an accurate measure of how many could be persuaded to rebel in a parliament with an actual Opposition possessing a competent leader. Failing actually blocking the bill, their would have been enough resistance to get worthwhile amendments to protect us from the worse excesses of Brexit. Anime isn't real pissflaps
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Feb 2, 2017 01:09
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jabby posted:What's the penalty for wearing a ridiculous flat cap with your expensive suit and coat to try and big up your working class image? Gunning for that Del Boy nostalgia vote
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Feb 2, 2017 02:44
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Isn't that what we're all hoping for now though?
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Feb 2, 2017 09:25
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I think you mean https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltlX2Ggupuc
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Feb 3, 2017 02:48
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And a good morning to you!
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Feb 3, 2017 10:14
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The leadership of the top two parties has historically indulged in the exact same rhetoric though, arguably for longer than Farage. It's not like he bent the narrative to his whim, he just helped pull it along, and stood to benefit the most from everything going to poo poo He's definitely got media skills, even before UKIP was popular he was pretty much guarantee a spot on any news report about anything if he wanted it. But the Tories and Labour to an extent set the scene and legitimised this scapegoating, UKIP was just more committed to running with it Hell maybe Boris Johnson is the most successful - he's credited with starting the whole 'lie about the bonkers EU' strain of journalism that completely took over and shaped people's views of what the EU actually does. What did he say, he enjoyed throwing these reports over the channel and hearing the crash on the other side? Well he definitely went big on that in the end
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Feb 3, 2017 10:33
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I can't read again. I guess my mind filled in something relating to recent events
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Feb 3, 2017 16:51
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Pissflaps posted:What's bizarre about it? We voted to leave the eu and people are being asked if it was right or wrong that we did. I read bad and thought it was about the parliamentary vote and not the vote 8 months ago
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Feb 3, 2017 16:55
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Pissflaps posted:The labour voters that stayed labour voters sure as gently caress aren't going to stick around for pro Brexit Labour. Yeah they are
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Feb 4, 2017 01:27
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Pissflaps posted:The polls suggest otherwise. There are polls where 'voting intention: Labour' has 0% in support of Remain?
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Feb 4, 2017 01:29
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Pissflaps posted:These are the polls where labour voters are deserting the party in droves. Then surely the ones that are staying, if it's all about the Brexit, should be skewing heavily in support of Leave. But you keep posting polls showing the opposite, to show how out of touch the leadership is
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Feb 4, 2017 01:36
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So it's less a fact borne out by the data, and more a Mystic Flaps prediction
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Feb 4, 2017 01:41
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Pissflaps posted:What are you claiming I have 'predicted', exactly? Your last series of posts where you claim the polls show that "the labour voters that stayed labour voters sure as gently caress aren't going to stick around for pro Brexit Labour" and I said the polls don't show any evidence of this happening, and then you said "they have yet to change their mind"
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Feb 4, 2017 02:35
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Fangz posted:Okay, let's actually look into this. 3 YouGov polls: We're talking about Labour 'going pro-Brexit' in the last couple of weeks, and whether that's driving away the Remain-voting majority of those who intended to vote Labour. What's happened between April last year and now is interesting and all, but it hardly points to Labour's recent Article 50 stance as the cause. Kind of a lot has happened, you know? But if you want to look at those trends anyway, it might be more helpful to keep things consistent by including the don't knows and non-voters pre:
April
Leave Remain
Lab: 13% 43%
Con: 24% 21%
pre:
July
Leave Remain
Lab: 13% 32%
Con: 39% 22%
pre:
January
Leave Remain
Lab: 13% 28%
Con: 39% 23%
So it's more like a drop from 43% of Remain voters to 28%, with the vast majority of that loss being realised during the referendum and its outcome - the Tories almost doubling their share of the Leave vote by July. There's been some loss in the 6 months since then, which is obviously bad, but again there are lots of reasons why Labour might have lost a few percent of any demographic over that period There's been a shift in support for going ahead with Brexit among Remain voters, and it's become a key polling issue overall, which is apparently the specific reason Labour's positioned itself this way on Article 50. If this recent approach has caused an exodus of Remain voters, which is what we're talking about, it hasn't really shown itself in the recent polls e- sorry had some of the Tory votes reversed, phone postin is hard baka kaba fucked around with this message at 04:00 on Feb 4, 2017 |
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Feb 4, 2017 03:54
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Fangz posted:I also don't know why you think it's reasonable to shed the likelihood to vote screen which is what you are doing by including non-voters. It's reasonable because you're talking about winning over or losing the people who voted Remain, which is a fixed group. Excluding a chunk of them distorts the numbers - like if some of the non/don't know Remain voters decide they will actually support the government going forward, Labour's share will go down even though they haven't lost any votes (or even if they gain some, but not as many). Including all of them shows exactly where their support is or isn't going And it's not true that they haven't gained any leave voters. I don't know why you just decided to pick those 3 dates where the leave share is 13%, but those polls come out every week and last week's had Labour's leave support on 10%, the week before that it was 9. That doesn't prove we're headed to the moon, but an upward shift since the whole Article 50 positioning thing isn't evidence it's not working either This is meant to be a long-term strategy for making the best of a poo poo situation. It's too early to say if it's working or not, but whatever happened last year to lose Labour support, they have to move forward from here. And that means winning support from Remain voters too (who, remember, now poll with a majority supporting some form of Brexit)
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Feb 4, 2017 05:07
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forkboy84 posted:https://twitter.com/KawczynskiMP/status/827994796421763072 Tory MP deletes graph
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Feb 4, 2017 23:31
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I'm not even sure Farage wants back in at this point. He got what he wanted, he's got some lucrative side gigs out of it, and possibly the ear of the mad king of the west. Brexit is going to be a shitshow and he can influence it from the outside by being a pundit, without the taint of being involved, and he can sweep back in when the time is right for him to 'pick up the pieces' or whatever like some returning heroPissflaps posted:I don't remember that theory being posted in this thread. I remember posting that theory
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Feb 5, 2017 22:59
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forkboy84 posted:No. Definitely not. Someone did
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Feb 6, 2017 01:54
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I just checked and it was Namtab
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Feb 6, 2017 01:54
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Well yeah that's his cat
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Feb 6, 2017 17:12
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TinTower posted:UKIP MEP ordered to pay £160,000 in libel damages to three Labour MPs she accused of covering up the Rotherham child abuse scandal. quote:In her defence, she argued that it was a political speech that did not contain any allegation of fact but merely expressed an opinion. Bonus extra quote:The issue of costs is still to be decided. It is understood that Collins faces having to meet the entire bill herself, with Ukip not expected to contribute. I wonder if this will make kippers more wary of spouting non-allegations-of-fact, I mean that's sort of their thing
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Feb 6, 2017 18:16
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jabby posted:Jesus Christ, BBC news has a video of an NHS manager going around with a credit card machine demanding £800 a day from foreign visitors to stay in hospital. ITV called it "so-called Health Tourism" which has some nice connotations
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Feb 6, 2017 19:37
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Pissflaps posted:So these people justifying Corbyn's loving awful three line whip on this bill by saying Labour will get amendments Uh the point was that not threatening to block could make it easier for Tories who are willing to vote against the government line to do so. And even though it's what a lot of them want, I'm not holding my breath The bit you didn't quote was where I contrasted that with your idea that if Labour had voted against Article 50, the Tory rebels would have totally joined in and defeated it. If there was any chance of that, then surely the broadly popular amendments getting lots of support will be a piece of piss. The only reason to vote against them is tory party unity, so I guess we'll see how that works out huh!
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Feb 6, 2017 22:51
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Pissflaps posted:We'll never know because instead of opposing the bill Labour supports it. We'll know if none of them vote for the amendments that offer guarantees they've been calling for
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Feb 6, 2017 23:03
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Gorn Myson posted:The opposition to this idea is "lets just follow the Conservatives and maybe, possibly, if we cross out fingers hard enough, we might be able to mitigate the damage". Well no, the opposition is "let's not position ourselves against the current public support for Brexit, but work on representing those people and pushing for a better version than the government is willing to deliver, and hold them to account when they fail" The best case scenario is people getting more and more opposed to the real deal, so that when the time comes, it's politically untenable to actually push the button - and hopefully Labour are in government at that point. And at worst, we get a less damaging version of Brexit. And Labour wants to gain support and put pressure on the process by making clear and popular points without "but you're just opposed to the whole thing" being used to deflect every criticism I mean whether it will work is a different story, but that's the general idea. The pissflaps vision is Corbyn making the A50 vote fail using some Matrix-style powers, or Corbyn going back in time to change the whole narrative behind the referendum, or anything else where it's all Corbyn's fault and everything would have totally worked out otherwise
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Feb 6, 2017 23:30
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Fangz posted:You have to lead public opinion sometimes. Especially if public opinion is only narrowly in favour of a position. You have to look through the lies and bullshit and realise, no, I am going to take the right position on this and in a few years you'll see I was right. It's not that narrow anymore, all the recent polling says that people want some form of Brexit - there's a resignation there, but that's where we are Taking a wildly unpopular stance (not in numbers, in the sheer amount of vitriol and demonisation that would be aimed at Labour) and then later going "see we were right and you were wrong" isn't a vote-winner. People just aren't rational like that. Labour are trying to be persuasive and take a position of "we all want the best outcome" and bring the electorate along with them. It's easier to do that as part of the in-group. They're playing the long game here Pissflaps posted:Jesus christ youre not paying attention 
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Feb 6, 2017 23:49
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Corbyn wants Brexit
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Pissflaps posted:Show your working. 
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Feb 6, 2017 23:55
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Fangz posted:Supporting momentarily popular things you don't believe in that you know will be bad and unpopular later, because the press might be ~mean~ is the most disgusting political opinion I've seen all day, and I've been keeping up with US news. Seriously, wtf? Labour has two options
I really wish being correct was a positive thing in politics. We all know it really, really isn't - I mean the referendum itself was a dry run on this. People aren't going to say "I was wrong all this time!" and reward Labour with their apologies and support. If there's any chance of stopping this, Labour has to be in a position to shape public opinion over the next two years, or even win a snap election. Volunteering to be the national whipping boy won't help, even if it's morally correct as gently caress The Lib Dems can do that because they don't matter. That's not a burn, they just have the luxury of not being relevant (we've seen what happens when they are in a position of relevance obv)
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Feb 7, 2017 00:11
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Fangz posted:Right, in the same way that everyone blamed the Lib Dems for the Iraq war. Nobody blamed the Lib Dems for that because, like I said, they don't matter The Iraq war, and most of the other analogies people use, are different situations. This isn't parliament acting as the public's representatives, taking decisions on our behalf - they're choosing to recognise or overrule the result of a direct vote. That's completely different, and makes the whole thing more complicated - it's a whole other issue on top, one that can turn public opinion (leave or remain voter alike) against Labour. It's why they've been careful to keep saying things like they're not going to block it, they're respecting the decision, etc The Iraq war also wasn't a vote to start a process where the actual plan for intervention was discussed over two years, where the actual type of intervention hadn't been proposed, with the possibility to not go through with it at all The Iraq war was also a Labour initiative, pushed for by Tony Blair personally, so of course that's where the blame is going to lie. How much do people blame the Tories for supporting it?
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Feb 7, 2017 00:44
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What are the chances of the Lords causing a bit of trouble? I'm guessing they won't throw themselves to the wolves by actually blocking it, but are there any rumours of any spoilers going down?
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Feb 8, 2017 21:00
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LemonDrizzle posted:According to the Guardian, none - there have been so many "we want hard brexit and we want it now" votes in Parliament that the Lords would be unable to justify presenting any meaningful impediment to the bill's passage. Unable according to procedure, or more "they wouldn't!!!"? Given the gravity of this whole thing and the lasting impact they might feel this is a unique situation. And the Tories don't have a majority so there's potential for a meaningful resistance, to force amendments etc. Aside from the Mail and Express having all their heads on pikes by tomorrow evening of course COMMEMORATIVE PULLOUT FOR YOU TO TREASURE FOREVER
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Feb 8, 2017 21:39
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Pissflaps posted:Why are you expecting the Lords to do the oppositions job? Because they have the numbers to do so
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Feb 8, 2017 21:45
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spectralent posted:Well, yes, I assumed you'd read the i-told-you-so argument as being more diplomatically phrased than going up to a load of starving homeless, dropping trou and sharting over them. This isn't what happened though. Here's what Labour did:
That's the key difference - this wasn't a normal vote where they get to decide on our behalf what they think should happen, the electorate had already decided. That's fundamentally different from the Tories saying "we want to do this" and Labour saying "we think that's bad". It would have been a vote to overturn a democratic decision, poo poo as that decision is, and that's a whole other can of worms. Same for threatening to block it if the amendments weren't passed, if we're being optimists and believing there was ever a hope of enough Tories breaking ranks and voting against the final bill in an act of political suicide But what they did is to vote for significant changes to the process, which the Tories voted against. So yeah, it is a Tory brexit, because the Tories have voted to keep full control and responsibility for how the negotiations go, and they're gonna go very badly. They openly rejected the kind of soft-brexit safeguards the majority of people want to see at minimum. Labour now represent people's ideal of how things should go, the Tories get to own the terrible reality Whether you think there's even a remote chance of that working out, that's basically Labour's strategy for the next two years. I know everyone's unhappy that it's going ahead, and disappointed that Labour didn't stand against it on principle, but do you really honestly think it could have been stopped? The best chance of stopping it (and all the disaster and suffering it's going to bring) is to push public opinion to the 'hell no this is a bad idea' side, and either hold a second referendum on the deal or just outright cancel the whole thing with public backing. Labour needs to become a trusted voice on this, and that's what they're trying to do
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Feb 9, 2017 02:52
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Regarde Aduck posted:Good post but I don't think this is the public's impression. I think Tory voters are empowered by what they see as a strong leader and Labour voters feel abandoned. Labour may have done everything in a proper and noble fashion but I feel they are going to pay dearly. It's definitely not the public impression right now, no - like you say the Tories represent the architects of all the Brexit hopes and dreams, Labour represents at best a good faith bystander and at worst a party that's betrayed people But that was always going to be the trade-off, and they're positioning themselves for the long term. Representing an opposition to the road the government is taking us down, making demands and criticisms in good faith instead of as the anti-brexit party that (obviously) just wants to be contrarian and undermine things People who felt betrayed will become more resignedly pragmatic, people who believed the Tories' promises will identify more with Labour's position as the hard truth starts to shake out. That's the hope anyway. We've got two years for people to gradually be convinced that things are going to be Real hosed Up, and maybe for a 'stay in with reforms' deal to be struck with the EU. This is basically the start of a new era of politics
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Feb 9, 2017 05:26
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jBrereton posted:This right here is some revisionist bullshit. The point of asking is that they tried to add sensible guarantees and requirements to the process, which were shot down by the Tories. You can think of it as symbolic like voting against A50 would have been, if you like. They never had any power to force the issue, this is a Tory majority united behind their party, even when it comes to amendments many of their pro-remain MPs wanted Hell I wanted another referendum, or the whole thing blocked, but I also recognise how much of a shitstorm surrounds both of those at the moment. Nothing's changed, the Tories are still promising the moon, more people than ever support going through with it, and Labour need the power to convince the pro-Leave side in particular that things are actually looking bad - being the bad guy and the scapegoat doesn't help with that I keep saying it but Labour are in a really difficult situation right now, and they've made a hard choice with short-term fallout hoping for long-term influence. People keep going "Corbyn wants brexit!" but the fact is the party in general backed this approach, against their own beliefs and often their constituencies'. They ain't doing this out of fierce loyalty to their beloved leader. If it were clear it would work then it'd have been an easy decision, but they've decided it's their best shot
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Feb 9, 2017 15:31
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^^^bad ratings for Corbyn? No way!Zalakwe posted:Brexit is likely motivating a lot of people. To do what though? Vote in a Lib Dem councillor = ??? baka kaba fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Feb 10, 2017 |
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Feb 10, 2017 12:09
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Zalakwe posted:Or MP. So far. It's a wonder no-one has given them anything better to get behind. MP sure, but it seems like people are really projecting when they see local council results and chalk it up to a single, completely unconnected issue I voted for my local councillor because of the government's stance on foreign aid, how about you!
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Feb 10, 2017 12:35
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Thing with the three-line whip is it sets a strong official position for Labour (not denying the democratic vote) as a strategy to be more persuasive and win support, but it also puts it all on Corbyn's head I have no idea if he's planning for someone else taking over, but if there is a successor they could both benefit from that positioning as a party that isn't merely out to undermine the process, and also take a strong anti-brexit line as an individual who had the whip imposed on them Kind of a fine line but a lot of this vote was toxic, and Corbyn's absorbing a lot of that. He's not the kind of person to whip on things, so maybe that was part of his thinking when he got assertive on this strategy 🤔
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Feb 10, 2017 12:51
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