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Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

C'est magnifique, mais n'est ce pas le guerre :psyberger:

Entente
Germans

Bonkers. Utterly, utterly bonkers. Three cavalry companies just changed the course of the battle. It is 7:30pm and the light is fading fast.

n.b. I will gladly discuss the specifics of my rules for close combat and my analysis of why that went so catastrophically wrong after the second 1914 battle begins; they will be a lot less useful in 1915 and I don't want players knowing exactly how it works just yet.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 04:49 on Feb 28, 2017

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Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

The German Roll20 is eerily silent. The French Roll20, on the other hand...

(Warning: chatlogs, feel free to skip.)

quote:

Hunt11 (97th Brigade) (GM): The man of the hour is here
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Welcome, HERO OF THE REPUBLIC
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): hail, the conquering hero comes!
Loel (lucky 99th) (GM): o7 o7 o7
Slim Jim (Chief of Staff) (GM): IMPERATOR
...
xthetenth (6ᵉ Cavalerie) (GM): hey my dad do I get that Croix de Guerre?
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): YES
AND ANOTHER ONE
AND THEN ANOTHER ONE ON TOP OF THAT ONE
Slim Jim (Chief of Staff) (GM): Probably gets an honorary Victoria Cross too, since the BEF saw it all
Hunt11 (97th Brigade) (GM): You get enough medals to cover your entire chest
xthetenth (6ᵉ Cavalerie) (GM): okay, I need to finish the rest of the results to see how much chest I have left
Slim Jim (Chief of Staff) (GM): oh if you think it ended with just the artillery
tbk (6th Division) (GM): hey i was out at the shops but uh
called it
Hephasto (BEF 2nd Brigade) (GM): I'm actually a little worried about having the BEF charge down La Oeuf and into Quatreprouts
The slope has to be incredibly slick with German blood at this point.
Hephasto (BEF 2nd Brigade) (GM): We might slip and slide in a hilariously undignified fashion.
Hunt11 (97th Brigade) (GM): At this point I am sure the Germans will break at the mere sound of cavalry
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): have xthetenth ride up and wave his sword
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): they'll surrender in terror

quote:

Loel (lucky 99th) (GM): really wondering what the germans could have done differently
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Short version?
Loel (lucky 99th) (GM): cuz it seems like they kept making incremental mistakes into a catastrophe
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Not get caught with their pants down at the start
Everything after that is a consequence of it
Loel (lucky 99th) (GM): seems like most of their actions were a reaction to us
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Yup
Loel (lucky 99th) (GM): them rushing fraise champs, we already have troops aiming it
xthetenth (6ᵉ Cavalerie) (GM): They also kind of seem to have split awkwardly with the guys on the nainville road pinned down and the bouclecourt brigades continually pushing forwards
tbk (6th Division) (GM): it's important to remember that despite us punching well above our weight they still hold saint croissant and we probably can't get it off them
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): cavalry
Loel (lucky 99th) (GM): really wonder what their objectives were, to make them act like that

quote:

Slim Jim (Chief of Staff) (GM): They could have sent a brigade up la cote as easily as we did
tbk (6th Division) (GM): i'd guess that their early 'enemy sighted' orders might have messed htem up
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): We got to la cote the hard way
All they needed to do was to get a brigade there
And the whole battle would have been completely different
Slim Jim (Chief of Staff) (GM): I cannot imagine how much of a clusterfuck that battle would have been
tbk (6th Division) (GM): yeah if they'd parked some machine guns and 7.7s around baguende early...
...
Slim Jim (Chief of Staff) (GM): with the rate at which the roads plugged up
They could have started in battle formation and done better to instantly start machine gunning/bombarding us
But they were literally all marching on the roads
Loel (lucky 99th) (GM): seems like they bet everything that we were spawned in quatreprouts
and didnt move any scouts to less likely scenarios

quote:

my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): question: Who drew all the dicks?
I'm just curious
xthetenth (6ᵉ Cavalerie) (GM): not just dicks it seems
Sullat (55th Brigade) (GM): war. war never changes
tbk (6th Division) (GM): i cannot tell a lie, it was i who drew the dicks
the german one has a pickelhaube
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): it's like animal house in here
tbk (6th Division) (GM): we must proudly thrust against the firm, but yielding enemy rear
AbortRetryFail (98th) (they're dead) (GM): piss range is exactly 4"

quote:

my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Remember this, though: They still have a chance of winning
We need to be ready for desperate measures
On the bright side
They're probably heavily demoralized
I can only hope Hey Gail isn't too active, since she's a calm, rational person in circumstances like this, which is more than I can for most goons.
*can say
We need them to panic now
Tehan II (Artillery Reserve) (GM): Is this about Maximum Elan
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Yes
Remember the damage we almost did to ourselves in DOOOOM AND GLOOOOOM mode
There's a reason why I kept saying "we're winning" "stay optimistic" "we've got them on the run"
all the goddamn time
People start thinking weird when things are going bad

quote:

Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): I feel like much of this battle has been my dad and I misunderstanding each other
which I'm sure has been been bad for both our blood pressures
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): haha
yeah
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): for what it's worth, you've been a pretty great head goon
Flesnolk: Yeah, from my seat (no details) you seem to be the better corps commander.
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): I've spent a good chunk of time doing these kinds of goon games. And you've been one of the best commanding officers.
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Thanks. :)
I'm glad I've been playing with y'all, and I've been able to rely both on you and tbk
For me, the position is a balancing act between 3 things: Wanting a coherent plan for the whole corps, that requires me imposing my will to some degree; Not wanting to be a micromanaging rear end in a top hat and taking away people's fun; Wanting to have fun myself instead of seeing the game as a chore
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): from where I stand, you've done that balancing act pretty drat well
we had our rough spots and moments of confusion - which is to be expected. But we've been able to get everything cleared up whenever that happens. It's why we've been able to pull our asses out of the fire so many times.
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): Yeah. A lot depended on the team as a whole working together to figure out what the hell we were supposed to do
As much as Slim Jim annoys me to no end, for example, I specifically chose him for his position BECAUSE he tells me things I don't want to hear. :v If I wanted yes men, I'd play Total War. :p
(Slim Jim, I mean this in the best way. You cool)
My biggest fear was basically that I'll have a division commander going rogue
And end up having stupid drama over a game I wanted to enjoy
But thankfully, I got you guys instead

quote:

my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): heh
I wonder how the other thread is doing
This couldn't have been good for their morale
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): they can't be happy
Tehan II (Artillery Reserve) (GM): :smithicide:
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): getting punked by a lunatic brigadier on a horse
my dad (Corps Commander) (GM): And the best part is
He's been annoying them from the sides all the goddamn time
And they never took the chance to finish him off
Tehan II (Artillery Reserve) (GM): When the battle is over, someone needs to go through it all and write the full saga of X
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): the man's a legit goddamn hero
I never expected him to live this long
Bacarruda [22nd Div] (GM): I expected he'd die when I sent him into the farm to buy time
bastard lived
I though he'd die on Le Oeuf
again, he lived
I thought he'd die charging the guns
bastard lived again

The Great Goon War: A Lunatic Brigadier on a Horse :black101:

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Hey, want to know the really funny thing? That runner is 99% going to reach St C in the next couple of turns, they'll phone to General Kuno, and General Kuno is then going to tell them, "very well, hold on to the last man, casualties be damned, hold on until dawn!" and revoke the 3/4 losses auto-lose condition for them. Ain't I a stinker?

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

The win condition stays the same as it ever was; but the reward for a team getting to the corner objective is that, once they've done that, if they're going to lose the battle, they have to lose by being pushed out of the objectives they've taken, and not because the enemy accidentally at night bumblefucked into a brigade that's nowhere near anything important and caused a cheap end-by-bookkeeping. The end-by-bookkeeping result condition was only ever there as a backstop to ensure that the battle would end if neither side was going anywhere, without the need to fluff around looking for a negotiated draw like at the end of Grey's 1914.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 03:51 on Mar 2, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Update links: this time with a both-sides map so we can see exactly what's going on, being omniescent observers and all:

Entente
Germans





It's 9pm; the next update will see us through to 1am. (Also just noticed there's some fieldworks on there that need to be filled in, one of many excellent reasons why I'm considering replacing the Divisional/Corps assets system with making everything into its own brigade, including engineers and artillery.)

And it's now time for Episode 4 of "Crazycryodude Cassandra Is Literally Right About Everything, All The Time":

Crazycryodude posted:

The comedy option is hoping they don't leave a garrison in Q and I can just walk back in when everybody goes to pound on Croissant.

Comedy option is right, dude :laugh:

Vando posted:

I think people giving up and neglecting to put orders in is a very good representation of falling battlefield morale if you ask me

It's pretty much literally MoltketheYounger@theMarne.txt, although it's one piece of historical accuracy I think we could do without!

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Mar 2, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Paul.Power posted:

Look at xthetenth go.

What happens if he makes it to Faibleimpot?

Assuming the runner gets back to Clemenceau: the French victory timer activates, their 3/4 requirement goes away, but they get a nasty surprise when the game ends before they think it's due to; the German timer will finish first, and the Germans will still be credited with a minor victory.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

But they would have lost their objective 1 and been beaten to the punch of getting the heavy mob in as reinforcements. (This is why I plan two levels of analysis: assuming things stay as they are, General Kuno will think it's a minor victory, General Lyautey will see it as a minor defeat, and The Historical Consensus 100 years later will think of it a rough stalemate; just another, and relatively obscure, component of the incredibly-inaccurately-named Race to the Sea.)

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Not to mention that, even if Cassandra is actually cheating (if he is, which I don't believe for a moment, he's also an exceptional liar and rationaliser), cheating's no good at all if nobody else actually listens to the intelligence you've gained... :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

It is now 1am.

Germans
French

Look at that morale bounce on the German side! As I see it: if both sides move forces, the French have a decent chance of pulling this back to at least a stalemate; if only one side moves forces, the Germans probably win more than they are doing at the moment.

And now, the action replay.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4NJc7oT-jQ

Turn 31


Turn 32


Turn 35


Turn 36


Turn 37


Again, please note that that wire isn't actually there until after Turn 38 ends.

edit: the way to win, if there is one, is surely for the French to circle round behind the enemy under cover of darkness and then charge their artillery from behind, but I doubt they have time/will think of it.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Mar 3, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

The only way those units can be given orders is if another BHQ comes within 8 inches of a leaderless chit, it can attempt to press them into service with its brigade (as happened with the French 97th after the first attack on St C, and the German 77th after the disaster on Dejeuner).

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Ending the battle does not automatically equal a victory. If Mon Pere had pulled off a miracle and ended up in control of St Croissants and Quatreprouts as well as Faibleimpot when the timer expired, the result would almost certainly be no better than a stalemate, and possibly a French victory of some sort, since they would have been in control of their objectives at the end of the battle and the Germans would not be.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

It's now 5am, and it's almost certainly all over bar the shouting.

French
Germans

Instant replay:







[Turn 43 absent, apologies]




edit: just been in Roll20 and it seems almost certain that we have a consensus for knocking the final six turns on the head and proceeding to the end of the battle, update pending

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Mar 4, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

The last six turns have been played. Full analysis in each team's thread: in short, this battle is a minor German victory and there will be another battle here in 1915 on the same map, with the following approximate trench line.



French End
German End

:siren: All threads are now open to all players.

Signups for 1914 Part 2: From La Dand to Effyaders, will begin on Monday, with the battle hopefully beginning the Monday after that, 13 March. We're going to need plenty of players, so don't get discouraged if there are already 20 other signups before you.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Mar 4, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005


Response pending, but just for the avoidance of doubt: we're cool, no whiteknighting required

edit: I'm gonna give this one 24 hours to marinade. For now: he's right about some things, some other things I don't think are quite as clear cut. I'm not going to spoil the next map just yet, but I will say it looks and plays completely differently to this one.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 00:06 on Mar 5, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

You're all allowed into all threads.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

steinrokkan posted:

You are missing the part where Germans sent in an overwhelming force five hours ahead of French reinforcements and connected the gains made by us.

Partly what this man said, with a small slice of "well, if my initial instincts tell me the line should go about there (which was slightly more generous to you in places), if I move the line back to halfway on Dejeuner and back off Pasteur to about here, that opens up some more interesting possibilities for 1915". I may tweak that line further, and you will have some discretion in where you place the actual trenches before the battle begins; that might mean an opportunity to shove forward again some more with (abstracted) local attacks before the big push.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Signups for 1914 Round 2: From La Dand to Effyaders, are now open. Here is the map.



Further explanation of the various terrain features is available in either thread, but new for this round. Most importantly, waterways, some with bridges! On the left, a canal; in the middle, a shallow, fordable river; on the right, a deep river. Changes of elevation are much less important than round St Croissant, but the hill spotting rules have been tweaked, and there is also a depression on the left of the map and a sunken road, the Chemin Creux. (There are a few unnamed features that you are welcome to submit names for in here.) Also, you will get to play with indirect artillery fire for the first time! All this and more, if you consider Northern France for your holidays this autumn!

Players intending to sign up may read either thread, up to and including the clearly-marked introduction post for Round 2, at which point you must go no further. Choose your side and sign up by posting in their thread. The observer thread remains open to both sides, for the time being, and I encourage players who sign up in a thread to also post in here to let people know which side they're taking.

We are going to need a lot of commanders, and part 1 has shown how vital it is to have plenty of other players waiting in reserve. Don't be discouraged if there's already 10 or more signups for your preferred side! There may well be a chance for you to get into the game very quickly.

Warning: these links go directly to my intro posts for Round 2: you can go back from them, but not forward.

Entente thread
German thread

These links, on the other hand, go to the OP of both threads.

Entente OP
German OP

(For the observers, I am probably going to wargame at least one scenario for a poo poo-or-bust French attack on St Croissant, based on the finishing positions, during the week once the observer thread closes for good.)

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Mar 6, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

JcDent posted:

I still don'tw get the rules and I don't want to gently caress up like I did in Grey's game, so, ugh, you can take the glory, guys.

Seconding that non-playing staff officers who want to restrict themselves to one thread and give advice and opinions without having to command their own brigade are more than welcome.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Tevery Best posted:

Hey Trin, got any way to contact you if I don't have PMs?

makersley.com/war , send me an email via the contact page, mourn for the lost time that means I'm still struggling to get any kind of update schedule together

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Just get stuck in, both sides need as many warm bodies as they can get.

edit: any undecided players reading this, go join the Germans please

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 20:41 on Mar 6, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Volunteers will kindly proceed immediately to their team's thread and post in it :)

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Players, please be extremely careful about what you say in here; once again, different sides are being told different things and you'd hate to blow something that was supposed to be a surprise.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

The observer thread will close to players tomorrow, on Wednesday, but I'll leave an extra day or two for last-minute signups before I start talking spoilery.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

There's not a massive disparity, but we could use a few more Germans.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

:siren: THE THREAD IS NOW CLOSED TO PLAYERS :siren:

If you are reading this thread for the first time, at some point after midday on March 8th, this is your last chance to sign up for either side. If you read any further, you are committing to not playing in this round of the game.

Right then! Spoilery analysis of the map and etc to follow tonight.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

About the Map

The map for this round is directly informed by the last map; it's specifically designed to be a contrast to the last map and to provide a different experience. It's pretty obviously and unavoidably based on the First Battle of Ypres, the final gasp of mobile warfare before the trench lines were completed. The BEF was horribly outnumbered and battered to poo poo, and the Germans psyched themselves out of a victory that was there for the taking because of faulty intelligence. Let's see if lightning strikes twice, shall we?

In general: the last map was nearly square, with a lot of unknowns about where exactly the enemy might be coming from and where they might be going to. The counterpoint to that was that they got plenty of tall hills and suchlike, so the teams could judge by the observed movements of the enemy where their objectives were. They also got a lot of forces on-board at the start and then a few reinforcements, but not much control over when the reinforcements would arrive.

So this time, we've got a big long rectangular map with a big fat juicy objective at each, and then a pile of chokepoints to restrict options even more. On the other hand, with little useful high ground and the anti-spotting area of the depression, while the general question of "where does the enemy want to go?" is far more obvious, this time the question "which way do they want to go to get there?" will be the one to answer. Trouble is, since I've taken all the hills away, it's going to be rather more difficult to find them. Likewise, this time we've got only a limited force arriving on-board, and then a lot of reinforcements to come, who will arrive on a predictable schedule so their arrival can be planned for. (With the new fatigue point mechanic, I'll also be offering commanders the chance to accelerate their reinforcements' arrival at the cost of them arriving with a fatigue point.)

As to the map itself, it's quite clearly set up for attack/defence. The Germans cross the big river unopposed, and then the sunken road has been carefully located at a position where both sides will blunder right into each other if they both rush for it; it could either be a valuable forward advance line of resistance for the BEF or a solid baseline to underpin further German advances. Then there's hopefully an almighty scrap to defend the stream and its fords, then the twin obstacles of the depression and the forest, and then a final run across mostly-open ground to the canal; but also, hopefully, the map is resilient enough to cope with unexpected happenings like the BEF digging in at the edge of the hill or the Germans rushing across the stream quicker than anticipated.

I've also set things up this way to give engineers a bigger role in the rear, preparing fallback positions and erections. The spotter plane becomes much more important; what will they use it for? I think its best use, even on Day 1 is held back until late afternoon to check the rear for trenches and gun-pits and wire, locating things to be dodged around, and potential targets for indirect fire. How will indirect fire change the battlefield?

Should be a good laugh - but there's one thing I'm more interested to see the answer to than everything else put together. We'll save that until tomorrow, though.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

The first things that pop into my head are:

my dad's suicide squad, lenoon's doomed reservists, xthetenth the Lunatic Brigadier on a Horse dunking on everyone, the Amazing Disappearing Howitzers, Hunt11 gets lost, Slim Jim Pickens puts the "Chief" in "Chief of Staff"

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

The Elephant in the Room

So, here's the One Big Question, on which the answer to every other question about this round depends. The rules for combat in this game are hideously complicated, but at the end of the day, they seem to end up producing results surprisingly close to what you might get from a game of Diplomacy. If equal forces meet each other while both are equally prepared, they cause roughly equal casualties. If the balance of forces is unequal in some way (either because of an outright numerical advantage, or a problem setting up the guns), the stronger force wins. That's pretty much what we saw during every major attack last round, to whit:

When the French attacked the Nainville road, they ended up attacking 4 brigades to 2, all the French brigades attacking together as one force; they were aided by some crappy German dice-rolling, but they still wrecked poo poo. Then the 119th advances too far, is met with two enemy brigades, and gets its poo poo wrecked. Around St Croissant, on the other hand, they only ever managed to direct one brigade at a time against the enemy; they may have devoted equal forces to the attack as the Germans did to the defence, but instead of their men attacking together, they attacked in two separate waves and were consequently shot down (and even then, one company of the 98th made it into St C and killed a machine gun). If the right-hand division had all attacked at once instead of in waves, I'm pretty sure they'd have had a 3:2 advantage and may well have carried the day, or at least made it much harder for the Germans to occupy St C and forced them to take heavy casualties defending it.

Then we look at Dejeuner Ridge, which is absolutely the story of successive attacks and each one with superior numbers. The French cavalry arrives first and deals with the Jaegers, then two more German brigades arrive and now it's 2 vs 1-and-a-bit, so they force a French retreat on Graisse. Then the German forces separate again; the strong brigade goes to Quatreprouts and leaves the weaker brigade briefly vulnerable, at which point the remnants of the 97th and cavalry come right back, with the major force multiplication of the power of a cavalry charge, and they wreck poo poo at the cost of heavy casualties. The stronger German brigade makes Quatreprouts and is then attacked nearly 3:1 by Mon Pere and the BEF and gets summarily thrown aside; then Mon Pere turns on St Croissant, attacks with a 3:1 disadvantage, and gets his own poo poo wrecked. (If, as he'd hoped, he'd caught the Germans dancing around trying to reshuffle themselves...)

The correct answer to this war is, therefore, the old Hacker's Dictionary argument for building reliable systems: first ensure that you have built a really, really, really good basket, and then put all your eggs in it at once. I've slipped a few things into this scenario that will encourage people to do that ( like the frequent terrain-based chokepoints), and a few things that will encourage them not to (dribbling their forces into the battle slowly, rather than in large clumps). He who gathers his forces and then acts boldly will win. He who throws forces piecemeal into battle as they arrive and then acts tentatively will lose.

(This is also the answer to some of Mon Pere's quibbles about the last scenario; St Croissant was meant to be a difficult-but-achievable objective that in the event could have been taken by a coordinated assault, and if I get some spare time I'll re-run some modified game situations to see whether it would have been possible, and how it might have been done.)

Lazyfire posted:

I wonder if the rules will allow for this:



Get this ahistorical shite out of my thread, you rotter :argh:

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

First update will be adjudicated this evening; look for it at any point after 7pm GMT. Let's have a look at the two teams' plans.

For the Germans:



For the BEF:



Everything now depends on who exactly arrives where and at what time. Both sides have once again obligingly took the bait and rushed headlong to the carrot in Stethoscope.

Now, without having looked too closely at the details of anyone's orders (which I never do until after deadline, to make sure I don't get confused and start using orders that were later superceded but "oh I remember what you wanted to do here"), I think the ACs are probably going to get overwhelmed by weight of numbers unless they can manage perfect positioning or they somehow arrive late enough for it to be after the German cav brigades have split up, and the best-case is that they can withdraw after taking about half casualties, terrifying the poo poo out of the Germans with their confirmed existence, and then withdraw in good order to [$DEFENSIBLE_LOCATION], keeping the Germans off-balance for long enough that they don't realise they actually have a numbers advantage.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Mar 13, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Adjudication is up.

British thread
German thread

So, let's now use our Observ-O-Vision to have a little look-see at how exactly that went down, shall we?

End Turn 3:




Overview Turn 4:



The lead AC is about 22 inches from the southern German brigade. Then the Germans win initiative, both their brigades enter Stethoscope, then the ACs move up, seeing nothing: and so...

End Turn 5:



:allears: :allears: :allears: :allears: :allears:

Remember that, per the adjudication, both those German brigades are considered to be inside Stethoscope and cannot be seen from outside.

End Turn 6:



Then it all goes off outside Stethoscope, and here's what Observ-O-Vision sees at the end of Turn 8.



So many questions! I think the most cromulent one at this stage is "will the British twig that they're facing two cavalry brigades, not one?" The Red ACs have an even-money chance of escaping with, oh, about three or four cars intact, and may well get away with more.

edit: unless the Germans turtle up like big cowardly cowards, in which case they'll pull back in good order. What the Germans appear not to realise at this early stage is that they've more-than-halved the amount of firepower that Red can send at them...

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Mar 13, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Speaking of Gold Team, Pater Meus makes a highly cromulent point in Roll20.

quote:

my dad (GM): The plan is working pretty much as intended. All that is left to see if we pay for not comitting fully to it. One extra AC would have been important here, and we're in serious danger of our forces fleeing by orders while already being commited and taking casualties but before they can deliver the killing blow.
...
Just one more AC there, and that last cav would not have been able to charge. Oh well, c'est la guerre.

What was that I was saying about eggs and baskets?

(The Germans confidently predict that there's no way at all that the BEF could possibly want to attack, and strongly consider re-jigging 2nd Brigade's defensive deployment. The BEF is unanimously agreed that yes, that cavalry brigade is indeed going to attack; and nobody has yet suggested that there might be a second lot of Uhlans lurking inside Stethoscope. Is it Wednesday yet?)

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

They literally are just a turbocharged MG chit.

What I think's misled the Germans is the sudden and clear appearance of a rule that hasn't really been obvious before; a company which is charged has a house-ruled small chance (improved by being in a trench or the sunken road) of resisting the charge, and an MG gets another bonus to this attempt on top of that for being an MG. (IIRC one of the MGs in Quatreprouts repelled about three enemy units before being overwhelmed by sheer weight of numbers.) Since this time there was only one cavalry company that survived to close combat, there was no chance for the success of another company to obscure its failure, and they're (not unreasonably) inferring that the repulsion must have had something to do with it being an AC, not because it was an MG.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Mar 15, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Oh, you didn't :swoon:

Update is up.

British
German

And here now is Observ-O-Vision, starting with Turn 9:



Turn 10:



Turn 11:



Turn 12:



And Turn 16: here's the situation as the BEF sights the Germans and exits, stage left:



and the overview



So, here's my instant takeaway. The Germans are currently sitting upon the carpet and telling sad stories of the death of kings and the British are feeling extremely smug about how things have gone so far. Here's the thing: the German plan to sneak 3rd Brigade over the stream by having steinrokkan build a bridge for them is absolutely a good and cool one that will poo poo the Entente up good and proper and I'm quite certain it's going to work, even if the BEF deploys the 8th to defend the south, they'll gently caress up and defend the fords and not the whole map.

The question is, will the German nerve hold? Right now I see them going "okay, let's devote everything to well and truly winning back Stethoscope and then try the fords in the morning with indirect fire", which I'm pretty sure is exactly the wrong thing to do. Secure the southern road and hold that and their erection overnight as a bridgehead, that's the correct play, but of course they lack much of the information they'd need to be sure of it.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Mar 16, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Tevery Best posted:

Wait, am I correct that the allies receive no further reinforcements until tomorrow? Because if so - and if the Germans grasp that the plane told them the southern fords are virtually unprotected, the British will be utterly hosed and the Effin' Zeroes could easily reach Blob before sundown.

You're quite correct, but the Germans* are too busy going "oh, it must be equal forces" and inventing spurious extra brigades of armoured cars all over the place because "why would they split their cars 8/2 like that???" You have no idea how hard I'm having to resist the urge to go "yeah, that's what I said!"

* It's actually just mossyfisk in Roll20, love you honey, thanks for playing, nothing personal, but you're on a hella hot streak of being completely and totally wrong about literally everything right now :munch:

edit: for fairness, the British Roll20 is currently tying itself in knots over Pater Meus's proposed cutting-out expedition to La Dand. Which is hilarious, but they absolutely shouldn't do it because the only thing it'll achieve is sticking the Germans into one huge lump on the east bank, and when they finally do get back over (and believe me folks, they will get back over) they'll be encouraged to use everything at once in one big lump instead of penny packets.

edit edit: on that note, remember what I said about evenly-matched forces and eggs and baskets? 1 brigade vs 1 brigade in Steth, but the German brigade fails to bring all its firepower to bear at once. That's why they lost that one.

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 01:47 on Mar 16, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

We're up, and night's fallen.

German thread
British thread

There's not much insight to be gleaned from Observ-O-Vision, but here's turn 18:



and turn 24:



Operation Sneaky Bridge is very much go; even if the BEF scrambles something round there, it's highly unlikely that they'll be able to spot the bridge or anyone crossing it.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

What can I say, I just can't resist the urge to say "...sure!" when my players want to do ridiculous things.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Tevery Best posted:

EDIT: it would be hilarious if they set up shop in that trench, then the BEF infantry shows up first thing in the morning and tries to walk into it

It's better than that...

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Jeez, Tevster, give me a chance to get the Observ-O-Vision up...

Germans
British

Hopefully later I'll have time to do maps of exactly the route taken by the German 3rd Brigade (they're lucky they couldn't just wander off the map and just disappear off to the south) and suchlike, but here's Observ-O-Vision. It's from Turn 47; this is how close the BEF and Germans came to tripping over each other.



Here also we can see that as things stand, and as long as they hug the bottom of the map for dear life, the Germans can have their infantry cross the river unobserved during daylight hours...



This is as winning a position as you could surely hope for. Let's see if Roll20 and the Spirit of Sandman will take it away from them.

Full position, Turn 48:

Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Mar 21, 2017

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Mooddr posted:

What do they think the Germans are doing - playing Taschenbillard in Stethoscope?

They don't know what the Germans are doing.

quote:

The Main Body is attacking Foret de Effyaders, and the Entente is sending in a lonely Brigade to counter that.

They don't know what the Germans are planning.

quote:

Oh, and they are deploying their Arses Hortillery way away from the Action, where they will not be of any help.

They don't know where the Germans intend the action to be.

quote:

Never Mind that the German plan with the Bridge was a stroke of Genius, all the Germans need to do now is just play okay to win against the Entente here. And it is def. not the Scenario to blame this time.

The Germans are certainly in the pound seats, but let's not forget that nobody's tried to do indirect fire yet and I fully expect them to start jumping up and down and squealing like stuck pigs once they realise that BEF brigades have even more infantry in them than French ones.

The decision to pivot north could well pay dividends, but I reckon it's equally possible that they get tangled up in the so-far-unspotted wire, their timetable gets thrown off, the supporting fire lands in the wrong place, the brigades end up attacking one-after-the-other instead of all converging on the forest at the same time, and they get defeated in detail like the French at St Croissant.

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Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

Mooddr posted:

The Entente have no information about the Germans, yet they send a single Brigade North. What is that supposed to accomplish? Either a) the Germans attack there - the Brigade is dead, because it is alone without support

If the Germans attack perfectly, with artillery support and a 3:1 advantage in men all arriving at the same time, sure, it's dead. How likely is that, though? There weren't many perfectly-planned attacks last round and they were all on a much smaller and simpler scale. They seem currently to be targeting a 12 noon attack with no more than two brigades.

If they don't, the defenders are in a big fat brigade that can take a lot of losses before they have to morale-check; it stands a reasonable chance of either driving the attack off or at least damaging it bad enough to affect the enemy's morale in the next round of orders. Even if it rolls terribly and disappears quick, it still at least spots the enemy and provides vital intelligence.

quote:

or b) the Germans do not attack - the Brigade is useless up there and helps noone.

Calculatus Eliminatus. If you want to find a certain something, you've got to find out where it's not. This is the fork the defenders are trapped in; to be sure of winning any given battle they need to concentrate their men, but to be sure of even knowing that there's a battle to be fought, they need to spread out. No good committing everything to the south and then finding out that you've been headfaked and the enemy's taken the Foret de Effyaders without a fight and is marching through Trois Freres towards the canal. The way they're playing it seems to me to be about the best they can do with a bad hand.

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