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I had a good feeling about this one, and it's already exceeding my expectations.
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Feb 16, 2017 17:46
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Praying both teams pick scissors this round so we could have three ties in a row using all three moves.
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Feb 16, 2017 21:18
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I don't know how, but this is probably one of the most interesting threads I have ever read! 
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Feb 16, 2017 22:43
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Glaive17 posted:I don't know how, but this is probably one of the most interesting threads I have ever read! Same here. I wasn't actually expecting this LP to be thrilling, but here we are.
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Feb 16, 2017 22:54
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Gaffle posted:Praying both teams pick scissors this round so we could have three ties in a row using all three moves. Would that just straight up reset strategy almost like you're starting from scratch? I feel like it would.
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Feb 17, 2017 03:08
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Somebody better break out the scissors soon
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Feb 17, 2017 06:15
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Round 4 is finished! The result:   ROCK GLARES SULLENLY AT ROCK! IT IS A TIE! Current score: 1-0 in favour of Team Left, three points left to win. Previous moves: L: PRPR- R: RRPR- Summary: Thus far, the game really seems to revolve around rock being the primary go-to move (despite the fact that no one ever plays scissors), although we are starting to hear more and more arguments in favour of the good ol' scissors. Maybe next time someone will score a point? I will probably let the next round drag on a while longer than the usual 24~hour schedule on account of the weekend, unless the votes come in quickly from both teams.
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Feb 17, 2017 17:18
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USE SCISSORS!!!
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Feb 17, 2017 17:20
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Jobbo_Fett posted:USE SCISSORS!!! It appears the teams are playing the more advanced two-move "Rock Paper": Paper beats rock, rock... ...well, rock does nothing. Also, I'd like to say that I'm happy to see that so many people seem to be enjoying this LP!  I'm as surprised as you are that this turned out half as interesting as it is, to tell you the truth.
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Feb 17, 2017 17:25
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Nobody is going to play scissors now out of fear of the ROCK The only winning move is
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Feb 17, 2017 17:34
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Jobbo_Fett posted:Nobody is going to play scissors now out of fear of the ROCK Covski posted:Also, I'd like to say that I'm happy to see that so many people seem to be enjoying this LP!
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Feb 17, 2017 17:41
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I seriously hope this becomes a thing for Battleship, Connect 4, and Guess Who
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Feb 17, 2017 17:59
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Both teams seem to have been viewing their own scissors as the desperate, emergency move, while being too afraid of the opponents' scissors to pick paper. Can't wait to see which team caves first and finally picks scissors (especially if they get crushed by rock when they do)
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Feb 17, 2017 18:49
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Glad to see that one team is finally considering scissors. A good LP shows off as much game content as possible.
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Feb 17, 2017 21:01
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I thought LP innovation was dead, but this is it. This is the Let's Play that ushers in the newer new millennium.
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Feb 18, 2017 01:25
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This round will have a winner, it seems. Team rights strategy to tie forever and bore their enemy to death won't work, maybe they should try winning sometime.
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Feb 18, 2017 17:04
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Let's talk a little bit about game theory in general. What is game theory? The term "game theory" is a bit of a misnomer, as it doesn't really have anything to do with what we normally think of as games. The sort of situations that game theory deals with are scenarios where there are multiple people who do something, and the results that everyone gets depend on the actions that everyone took. People are out to maximize their own payoff, so they're going to try to pick the best move with the knowledge that everyone else is trying to pick their own best move. This is a simple idea at a high level, but it's powerful enough to model a very wide range of human activity. Can you give some examples? Sure. For this writeup, I'm going to limit the discussion to what are known as two-player simultaneous move games. Those are pretty much exactly what you'd expect: two people pick an action without knowing what the other person is doing, and they get a payoff that depends on both actions. I'm also going to assume that each player chooses from a finite set of moves, because that's a lot easier to describe than the more general case. The classic example of a game is the prisoner's dilemma. Wikipedia has a perfectly good description, so let me just quote it: quote:Two members of a criminal gang are arrested and imprisoned. Each prisoner is in solitary confinement with no means of communicating with the other. The prosecutors lack sufficient evidence to convict the pair on the principal charge. They hope to get both sentenced to a year in prison on a lesser charge. Simultaneously, the prosecutors offer each prisoner a bargain. Each prisoner is given the opportunity either to: betray the other by testifying that the other committed the crime, or to cooperate with the other by remaining silent. The offer is: Betray/ Betray: -2, -2 Betray/Cooperate: 0, -3 Cooperate/Betray: -3, 0 Cooperate/Cooperate: -1, -1 Here the first column should be read as A's action/B's action, and the second column is A's payoff/B's payoff. Another classic example is the game of chicken: quote:The game of chicken models two drivers, both headed for a single-lane bridge from opposite directions. The first to swerve away yields the bridge to the other. If neither player swerves, the result is a costly deadlock in the middle of the bridge, or a potentially fatal head-on collision. It is presumed that the best thing for each driver is to stay straight while the other swerves (since the other is the "chicken" while a crash is avoided). Additionally, a crash is presumed to be the worst outcome for both players. This yields a situation where each player, in attempting to secure his best outcome, risks the worst. Swerve/Swerve: 0/0 Swerve/Straight: -1/1 Straight/Swerve: 1/-1 Straight/Straight: -10/-10 Finally, there's the topic of this thread, rock-paper-scissors. I don't need to describe that, but let me write out the payoff matrix just for completeness: Paper/Paper: 0/0 Paper/Rock: 1/-1 Paper/Scissors: -1/1 Rock/Paper: -1/1 Rock/Rock: 0/0 Rock/Scissors: 1/-1 Scissors/Paper: 1/-1 Scissors/Rock: -1/1 Scissors/Scissors: 0/0 In the interests of discussion, suppose that you're playing one of these games. You want to maximize your payoff, and you know that everyone else is trying to maximize their own payoff. What do you do? (Of course, you could just click on the Wikipedia links I gave and read the analysis there. But that'd be lame, so don't do it.)
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Feb 18, 2017 18:44
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In single-iteration prisoner's dilemma, it is better to snitch (shanking is not simulated). You either get 0 - a full win! - or -2 (which is still less bad than -3 if you cooperate and they don't). In chicken, it is better to swerve. Sure, you cannot win if you do that, but the outcome of both players going straight is just too dangerous. Of course, then you get into hyperrationality shenanigans, but I still think that in a single iteration you should just swerve. (also because I am a very timid driver and just let people pass if they seem to want to.) In RPS IT IS CHAOS
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Feb 18, 2017 19:00
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The big difference between Rock Paper Scissors and games like Chicken, the Prisoner's Dilemma, the Stag Hunt, Rendezvous, etc, is that RPS does not have a pure strategy Nash Equilibrium, because there is never going to be a situation in which neither player stands to gain by being the only one to change strategies (this is to be expected, really; RPS is both zero-sum and non-cooperative). If you allow mixed strategies, then, well, obviously the equilibrium is going to end up just being choosing entirely randomly between the three, since any weighting towards one choice produces an incentive for your opponent to weight that choice's counter. This is why this tournament has banned the use of random number generators - because it removes the only possible equilibrium state and turns RPS into an exercise in pure metagaming; predicting, or attempting to predict, what your opponent is going to do based entirely on data and knowledge of them (and, of course, appraising of their knowledge of you). A Nash Equilibrium is a state proven (by the reasonably famous economist of the same name) to exist in any iterative finite-strategy game. In an equilibrium state, all players know that no player has anything to gain from being the only one to change their strategy. In most cooperative games, this state is when both players choose complementary strategies; if either suddenly stops, everyone loses. In the Prisoner's Dilemma, it's when both players betray eachother (and not when they both stay silent), because switching from betrayal to alliance only pays off if your opponent does the same. In Chicken, it's literally any state other than the car crash. Etc etc.
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Feb 18, 2017 19:18
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There seems to be a degree of fatalism in Team Right. Their next move seems to be more desperation than deliberation.
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Feb 19, 2017 06:56
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I'm glad we're dwelving into the more demoralizing aspects of Rock Paper Scissors.
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Feb 19, 2017 12:51
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Round 5 is finished! The result:  ROCK BREAKS SCISSORS! TEAM LEFT SCORES! Current score: 2-0 in favour of Team Left, two points left to win. Previous moves: L: PRPRR- R: RRPRS- Summary: A surprisingly unanimous team finally brings the scissors. It doesn't work out. As a side note, this leaves BrightWing as the only player on Team Right who has never voted for a losing move.
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Feb 20, 2017 16:30
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A beat down for the ages. Also, the true way to play a single iteration prisoner's dilemma is to cooperate because you can never guarantee it is actually single iteration, or that the results won't carry over into another game.
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Feb 20, 2017 16:48
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Standard psychology would say that the failure of their desperate move would make Right leery of ever using scissors again, but they have stuck with a loser before.
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Feb 20, 2017 16:50
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Added Space posted:Standard psychology would say that the failure of their desperate move would make Right leery of ever using scissors again, but they have stuck with a loser before.
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Feb 20, 2017 17:31
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This is interesting. Left seems to be confident, with 5 out of 7 respondents making the same choice. Right is reeling, with only 3 respondents all suggesting different things.
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Feb 20, 2017 20:04
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So the left is going to win this easily, correct?
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Feb 20, 2017 20:21
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Cathode Raymond posted:I think that the gloved hand has given team right a sort of villainous arrogance which I am sure will lead to their downfall. Are you saying that the gloved right hand has a sinister appearance?
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Feb 20, 2017 20:38
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Mega64 posted:So the left is going to win this easily, correct? Assuming it's equally likely for either team to win a round (and ignoring ties, because each round is [before you bring psychology and metagaming into to it] independent), you can go down to the fifth row of Pascal's Triangle (I guess the 1 at the top is the zeroth row?) and go: L0 R5: 1/32 L1 R4: 5/32 L2 R3: 10/32 L3 R2: 10/32 L4 R1: 5/32 L5 R0: 1/32 Of course, in some of these cases the contest would already have been over by this point, but I don't think that should matter for adding these probabilities up? Either way, Right wins in the first two cases and left wins in the last four. Total for the first two is 6/32, or 3/16. Total for the last four is 26/32, or 13/16. So all else being equal, right still has a 3/16 or 19% chance to win. Possible, but you wouldn't shoot an X-COM alien on those odds. quote:Also, the true way to play a single iteration prisoner's dilemma is to cooperate because you can never guarantee it is actually single iteration, or that the results won't carry over into another game.
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Feb 20, 2017 21:03
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Mega64 posted:So the left is going to win this easily, correct? The game, perhaps, but the next round may well to go Right. In 'best of seven' type competition, when one team is two wins ahead it's common to see the other team rally and gain a win. It's thought the winning team will grow overconfident and slack, where the behind team will focus more intently. Given recent votes, that exactly seems to be happening in this round.
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Feb 20, 2017 21:54
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I find it interesting that Team Right has been at such an apparent psychological disadvantage after losing that first round: It seems that many of their players have considered every tie as a loss for their side. Whether or not that has affected their performance is harder to tell, of course.
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Feb 20, 2017 22:33
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Okay so Team Right is definitely going for scissors, while Team Left is currently tied between rock and paper. This is pretty exciting.
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Feb 21, 2017 14:51
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C'mon Team Left you can do it! e: Looks like they're going rock 
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Feb 21, 2017 14:52
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Nevermind, Torrannor stepped up to lead Team Left to yet another victory! (unless, of course, Team Right suddenly all switch to paper in a very suspicious twist of fate)
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Feb 21, 2017 14:53
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Watching how these teams play, I think I've figured out a good general strategy for group based RPS. I'm going to save it in case there's another go after this one, though.
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Feb 21, 2017 17:35
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Round 6 is finished! The result: ROCK BREAKS ANOTHER PAIR OF SCISSORS! TEAM LEFT SCORES! Current score: 3-0 in favour of Team Left, one point left to win. Previous moves: L: PRPRRR- R: RRPRSS- Summary: The scissors gets within a hair's breadth of reedeeming themselves, but Torrannor saves Team Left by a single vote. I'm actually starting to feel a bit sorry for Team Right at this point.
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Feb 21, 2017 19:14
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Scissors has shown itself to indeed be a desperation move, and I think Team Right is only embracing it because they've allowed their dark gloved hand to convince them that they are Desperados who are on the run and don't deserve to win against a team as formidable as Left. Basic math would suggest that all three moves are equally valid, but we know in our hearts that basic math is a lie.
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Feb 21, 2017 19:22
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I predict Right will come back to win 4-3. This is how the world works now.
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Feb 21, 2017 19:37
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nine-gear crow posted:Give Left the finger and quit the game. I hate all of you. We have a rage quit.
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Feb 21, 2017 20:57
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Added Space posted:We have a rage quit. Ragequitting RPS has to be a new low.
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Feb 21, 2017 21:15
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