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Paul.Power
Feb 7, 2009

The three roles of APCs:
Transports.
Supply trucks.
Distractions.

Mega64 posted:

So the left is going to win this easily, correct?
Well, left has to win two rounds, with right winning no more than three. Right has to win four rounds, with left winning no more than one.

Assuming it's equally likely for either team to win a round (and ignoring ties, because each round is [before you bring psychology and metagaming into to it] independent), you can go down to the fifth row of Pascal's Triangle (I guess the 1 at the top is the zeroth row?) and go:

L0 R5: 1/32
L1 R4: 5/32
L2 R3: 10/32
L3 R2: 10/32
L4 R1: 5/32
L5 R0: 1/32

Of course, in some of these cases the contest would already have been over by this point, but I don't think that should matter for adding these probabilities up? Either way, Right wins in the first two cases and left wins in the last four. Total for the first two is 6/32, or 3/16. Total for the last four is 26/32, or 13/16.

So all else being equal, right still has a 3/16 or 19% chance to win. Possible, but you wouldn't shoot an X-COM alien on those odds.

quote:

Also, the true way to play a single iteration prisoner's dilemma is to cooperate because you can never guarantee it is actually single iteration, or that the results won't carry over into another game.
Yeah, iterated prisoner's dilemma is a whole different kettle of fish, and a lot of fun. I love that one of the most effective strategies for point scoring (although not winning individual games) is the wonderfully simple Tit for Tat: cooperate on turn 1, for every following turn do whatever your opponent just did.

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Paul.Power
Feb 7, 2009

The three roles of APCs:
Transports.
Supply trucks.
Distractions.

Added Space posted:

I know there's no table needed for RPS, but drat it I want to flip one anyway.

Both sides appear to be flipping it anyway.

How does nine-gear crow's blood stack up against scissors? Is it in any of the expansions?

Paul.Power
Feb 7, 2009

The three roles of APCs:
Transports.
Supply trucks.
Distractions.

C sounds good, and thematically appropriate.

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