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GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

I think Paper is the safest move for the first throw. We are both going to be looking at the same sources for RPS openings and I don't think Scissors are going to come out this early. They will probably throw paper as well.

E- even if they take Scissors we may take a loss but we are establishing we are more traditionally predictable which we can use to our advantage later. I think the safest opening is the smartest one here

GNU Order fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Feb 13, 2017

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GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

I think they will consider throwing paper again to be the riskiest play, so I think we are safe throwing Rock. We all know about winner stays, loser moves so even if we stabilize with a draw I think we'll come out ahead. I predict they will throw rock as well but if they try and overthink themselves they could throw scissors and we could steal a win.

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

AlphaKretin posted:

Curses! If I'm remembering the write-up about player psychology correctly, we're expected to change while our opponent is expected to stay the same - but they know we know this.

If we were playing reactively, we'd change to scissors, which would leave us vulnerable to rock - so let's pre-empt that move on their part and defeat it with Paper! And if it turns out we're overthinking it and they stay the same, it leaves us with a tie - preferable to another loss.

The danger in trying to use player psychology to decide what they'll pick is that it's more than likely that they're doing the same thing and then it just turns into 4th dimensional chess where we're trying to determine how deep down the logic hole our opponents are so we can go one layer deeper.

I prefer to use it to think about which throw they won't do, and playing around that. And personally I think paper again is their riskiest play.

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

I could be entirely wrong but I wouldn't expect somebody to try and take a risk with an early lead, considering we threw the obvious opening.

If we tie this round I could totally see them trying to get cute tho

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

There is no way they throw Scissors, considering they've thrown Paper and now Rock.

I think Paper is the safest move, and I predict they will stay Rock

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

It is time to unleash scissors

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

To actually provide context to my vote, once again look at it from their side. We go rock rock then venture out into paper. Where would we go next? I do actually think it's time we do Scissors because I predict they stay, thinking Paper is still safest

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

ScissorsScissorsScissorsScissorsScissorsScissorsScissorsScissors

E- I should probably explain why huh.

I cannot believe that they will go back to paper but at some point somebody needs to do it. Looking at both of our patterns there is justification for them to throw all three, tbh I think they will throw rock again but I've only been right half the time

GNU Order fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Feb 17, 2017

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

gently caress them for defiantly refusing to pick scissors. Scissors is noble and Scissors is powerful

E- without trying to think more than one move ahead, they seem weirdly adverse to scissors (was it our opening rock salvo?) and considering how they reacted after our first loss this could be the time to take a win back, and force them into throwing scissors next round to tie it back up

GNU Order fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Feb 20, 2017

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

What, did they make a pact at the start to refuse to throw scissors? gently caress it then, I'm just gonna vote Paper until they win.

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

Picking scissors a second time was the fatalistic/dumb choice, and for them to think it's what we would go with is mind boggling to me.

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

BrightWing posted:

Ok, let's calm down a moment, it's RPS, not the end of the world.

It is this kind of causal attitude that brought us to this point. Apparently this is all just fun and games to some of us.

I was under the impression that this would be a serious match. If you're not willing to die for the glove you shouldn't be voting for the glove

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

Paper, they're not gonna throw scissors until they lose

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

They are clearly refusing to play the game in a way we thought they would. Trying to ascribe the same logic to them now would be pointless.

Remember the "loser switches, winner stays" concept? That doesn't just apply to throws, it applies to strategy. We're on what our third attempt at a strategy? While they are who we thought they were. If you want to get them to throw scissors we're going to have to beat them, and then beat them again.

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

Paper seems safest but it also seems really obvious. Now that they lost two in a row I wonder if they'll start trying to play for real again, which to me says they'll follow the chain down to paper. I say we chase them, Scissors. Old, safe me would vote paper but sometimes you gotta go for it

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

I'm going to reserve voting because I want to consider all options.

BUT!

Just throwing this out.

Would it be crazy if we threw scissors again?

The answer is yes, but it might just be crazy enough to work

Their scissors bias must mean to them that scissors is weak and paper is safe. We caught them once and I could see them falling back to "loser moves winner stays" and trying to invert it. My gut has been wrong before but I could see them staying paper

GNU Order fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Feb 28, 2017

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

Looking at our own throw history, we've only thrown paper once. We also just won by doubling down on the winning play. Both teams went on a rock streak, but ours was more recent. I still don't see them throwing scissors, so personally question becomes do they think we will stay scissors to match our last set of wins, or do they expect us to do that obvious play and will circle around to rock to beat it.

Again my gut leans to the former

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

I'll go ahead and make my vote for Paper but I still think they're going to throw paper again

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

Also we should unglove when we make our winning throw (which will be this one)

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

Purely pragmatically, the difference between tying 4-4 and tying 3-3 means nothing to me. We mounted the 11th hour comeback before a rogue agent sabotaged us for the gloveless menace.

Betray

GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

It's kind of a buzzkill that the game isn't ending with RPS, though.

What about a couple day's recess followed by a heads up, winner-takes-all, crow-free, RPS Royale?

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GNU Order
Feb 28, 2011

That's a paddlin'

BrightWing posted:

Cooperate We may have been fiendishly betrayed, but it's not left's fault, they've been good sports.

Can we be sure of this? We go from about to be swept to about to make a whirlwind comeback and one of our members blows it all up?

I'm not one to peddle in conspiracy but at this point I can only trust the glove

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