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So, as was mentioned during sign-ups, the most likely opening move from one side is Rock, with the other side picking Paper in counter to that. We should assume that our opponents are going to assume one step further, and pick Scissors as a counter to our counter-pick of Paper, so we should pick Rock in the end. If this line of reasoning plays out as above, this dominant strike so early will demoralize our opponents and ensure we hold the mental advantage for the rest of the event. Of course, we do run the risk of them assuming yet another step ahead, picking Paper, and then leaving us demoralized, but we can only ride the counter-pick carousel for so long and I believe they would stop on Scissors... if they even use a similar reasoning in the first place, instead of just choosing at random! But, that's a question for when the throw happens.
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Feb 13, 2017 16:16
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GNU Order posted:I think they will consider throwing paper again to be the riskiest play, so I think we are safe throwing Rock. We all know about winner stays, loser moves so even if we stabilize with a draw I think we'll come out ahead. I predict they will throw rock as well but if they try and overthink themselves they could throw scissors and we could steal a win. I agree with this strategy. Rock
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Feb 14, 2017 17:26
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I have to dissent with that. The only move we have played so far is Rock, at this point our opponents have to be considering the possibility that we are crazies who will play Rock forever, no matter the circumstances. They would also consider that we would probably switch to scissors, for reasons outlined before and after the last round. Therefore, I believe they will throw Rock themselves, aiming to either tie us again on our Rock if we're crazies, or beat us on Scissors if we seek to change up our strategy. Thus, our move should be Paper.
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Feb 15, 2017 17:14
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AlphaKretin posted:No effort posts from me this round. I agree with the already-given reasoning. Same, with the addition that strategy hasn't won us anything yet, so utter chaos/reverse strategy are our best bets now. Anyways, Rock.
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Feb 17, 2017 02:20
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Oh, I haven't posted in this round yet. Uh, Scissors, yeah, sure, that's a good idea everyone. Go team.
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Feb 18, 2017 21:02
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All is lost. But, hey. I can spare a little reasoning here still. There's no way they're gonna play Rock three times in a row. It'd be too expected. Wait. Thinking that, what if they go with it? They've tied or won every round so far. Clearly they are thinking in ways that we aren't. We didn't go with Rock three times in a row, but what if they do? Now is the time for Paper. Yes, I talked myself out of a different choice while typing.
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Feb 20, 2017 18:07
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You fools! I told you! I said right there, they would make a move we would find unthinkable, and for once I didn't vote for a losing option! So, here's my reasoning again. They just won with Rock, and they haven't played Scissors all game. One of us has already panicked and voted for Paper, but what if that's what they want? What would be more poetic than ending the game with their only play of Scissors? They've been withholding it for a reason. Thus, now is the right time for Rock.
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Feb 21, 2017 20:38
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AlphaKretin posted:Paper. Even if we die we'll have achieved something in getting them to actually play scissors. We've already proven we won't go three Rocks in a row, and we're at two right now. They've just proven that they'll play Rock literally (figuratively) forever. This is their time, this is a bait to make us play Paper now. It'll go exactly as AlphaKretin there says, and the moral victory of making them play Scissors will not measure up to getting shut out in a Goddamn game of Rock Paper Scissors. They'll expect us to switch, since we haven't gone three-in-a-row before, and they'll expect that we'll expect them to keep playing Rock. So yeah, they'll play Scissors alright... and we'll snatch up a victory with Rock. EDIT2: On the other hand, I made pretty much this exact prediction two rounds ago, when they had only just begun playing Rock forever, and it was wrong then. Maybe they really will just keep playing Rock until they lose one. I don't know anymore, but I do think our lack of going three-in-a-row in the past makes it more likely that now is the time they will change things up. Oblivion4568238 fucked around with this message at 01:54 on Feb 24, 2017 |
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Feb 24, 2017 01:45
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Thank goodness I managed to convince myself and several others to switch! And this time around...Phon posted:I think they might go for scissors again. They've proven that they go for unexpected moves, and re-throwing scissors after it just cost them a point would be pretty unexpected. ...it's your reasoning that I'm going with. Let's Rock. And now, even if we do lose, we prevented a complete shut-out, so I'd be able to take it.
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Feb 26, 2017 21:29
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I'm torn, honestly. We're right on an edge where either going whole hog with Scissors or switching to catch us off is a legitimate move for them.CirclMastr posted:On the one hand, they didn't go Rock 5 times in a row. Except, they did. "L: PRP[RRRRR]SS-" So, us going Rock again is certainly within the moves they will consider seriously. Honestly, I just don't know. I've got a gut feeling that they are going to play Paper this time, and that we should skip the information gathering tie and go straight for the kill with Scissors, but all I have going for this read is that gut feeling.
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Feb 27, 2017 19:06
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 We're here. They had us dead to rights, and we turned it around with three straight victories. They must be freaking out about this. All they had to do was win one more game, and we flipped it right around to a possible choke. But... I don't know where to go from here. We both broke convention on this last round, and while it helped us win that round, it leaves me unsure what they will do next. I may have helped us get on this winning streak by changing people's minds in Round 9, but it doesn't make me a proper strategist, just a decent reactionary. I'm going to wait for our more strategical players to give us both our team's plan and the other team's possible plans before I make my own decision. Really, I can't wait to go back and read all of this when it's over. It must be so exciting for the observers right now.
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Feb 28, 2017 15:46
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Dr. Fetus posted:
I was leaning Paper myself when I did my previous post, and this feels like good reasoning to back it up. I'll vote Paper now, to avoid forgetting to vote at all, but will remain open to other options.
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Feb 28, 2017 19:15
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What is this feeling? Is it hope? I didn't think we would ever get to this point. I think no matter what happens here, I'll be satisfied.
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Oh what on earth. Here I was, trying to make an actual effortpost to counter Blind Sally, but apparently things are in motion now and I may as well not bother??? Anyways, here, have an image that I was spending too much time in Paint to try and make the components of, when i went and downloaded GIMP and did everything left in a couple of minutes.  If this thread is still alive by tomorrow, I'll make that effortpost then.
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Mar 1, 2017 07:04
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Come back to Paper. It is my Gut FeelingTM that they are going to play Rock, and we can then play Paper, mirroring the first round of the game with us as the victors. Of course, certain events just might have thrown a spanner in all of our plans...
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Mar 1, 2017 07:32
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AlphaKretin posted:poo poo. Remember that "Virtue's Last Reward" can also be taken as "Good people die". Besides, Covski posted:If both teams betray, nine-gear crow triple-loses. Betray.
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Mar 1, 2017 16:49
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nine-gear crow posted:And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you play Rock Paper Scissors. Reminder: Covski posted:If any team cooperates, nine-gear crow loses. Ah, all's well that ends well. Now to go back and look at this saga from the other angles!
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Mar 2, 2017 02:59
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