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Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
The first part was a bit boring (as premieres usually are unless something insane happens), but seeing Ciera go down so easily was satisfying. and then seeing Tony lose his goddamned mind and play himself out of the game in short order was MAGNIFICENT. Tony might be upset, but I don't really think he diminished his legend. It's just, he has a trick that only works once.

I'm kinda glad that tribe (Mana?) went twice, because they have some fun characters, especially Sandra, but of course also Tony, Varner, Michaela, and Malcolm. and Hali's googly eyes, which were one of the best parts of Worlds Apart. :stare:
also because Cirie would've been booted if the other tribe had gone. Huzzah! I think the swap will benefit her. Probably. at least, I think some people on the other tribe would be more willing to play with her, and if she's not on the same tribe as Ozzy or DEBBIE, she's got it made.

I guess it's sad two power players went out first, but both of them played this...poorly. If they had survived the vote, neither Ciera nor Tony would've made it much further.

I lowkey love JT's strategy. dude put on a fuckton of weight, and is just cruising under the radar. Everybody was talking up Tony and Sandra, but we didn't see much paranoia about JT. probably there was some, but eh.

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Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

ApplesandOranges posted:

Sandra basically said what I was thinking: if you're already losing even with your best players still around, what difference does it make trying to keep them around? I mean yeah, that's a defeatist argument, but 'keeping the tribe strong' is a pretty weak excuse after day 3. Especially since swaps are now so frequent these days that you have to expect them on day 7 or 10, so you should only care about keeping the tribe strong if you're there on the first TC.

yeah, tribe strength is only compelling if you don't expect a swap. I think almost everyone out there at this point expected a swap to 3. it makes too much sense.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Max posted:

Can we all appreciate how Brad Culpepper got like, zero confessionals.

he got one with his own dumb hashtag in the first hour. but otherwise, shockingly low visibility for one of Jeff's random favorites.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Max posted:

Either the editors sucked or she just wasn't an interesting character but was a good player.

She had a Reddit AMA recently, and said she wished she'd known to play more to the cameras, especially in confessionals. I'm convinced it was the latter, and my ire is reserved mostly for the producers, editors, and maybe a little for Debbie for being a lunatic.

I think there was a similar thing, except to the max, going on with Wiglesworth in Cambodia. She gave them nothing to work with, but apparently she was really well-liked, and there were good reasons she was targeted. Low drama social players aren't impossible to film, but the camera crew out there is almost all men. I figure, if they had more women, and also more female editors, they'd have less of a problem.

Spatula City fucked around with this message at 08:16 on Mar 14, 2017

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

garthoneeye posted:

Yeah, basically this. The only 2nd place person I can think of who can really make an argument that the jury was bitter and it was out of their hands to control that was Neleh.

Well, I do think the jury treated Twila really, really unfairly.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Adus posted:

the troyzan idol thing got me thinking. has there actually ever been a time where someone was swapped into a minority but found an idol and got someone else voted out with a vote of 1? i can't seem to think of any occurrences of this.

It would take someone in this three tribe situation getting an idol, and being so socially inept that they think the idol can only be used to save themselves.
Unless they're right before the next swap/merge, or feel comfortable that the tribe won't go to tribal again, it's only delaying the inevitable. a 5-1 idol play just means a 4-1 vote out next time.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Lone Goat posted:

There might not be a "next time" if they get merged or re-shuffled again.

True, but you can't bank on that.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
if I had to place any money on someone winning now, the show SEEMS to be building up a narrative for Brad. I could be wrong, but he's been shown very positively, and also as in control as anyone in this game besides Sandra. and he's still not a big threat. despite now being the second-most physically fit man left in the game.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
challenge: rank the seasons not by quality, but by how ~essential~ they are to the arc of the series. so, like, you might like Guatemala, for example, but nobody can argue in good faith that it's top ten by that criteria.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Max posted:

I'm not surprised Sandra wants to work with Michaela, given her history with Courtney.


"I'm a trigger for JT . . . you're gonna have to ask JT what that trigger is" is the spice I've been looking for today, drat.

It's beautiful. :allears:

and if we can recall, JT's big move in HvV was going after Cirie for no adequate reason. I don't think he's super-racist, but the island brings out biases that might otherwise lie dormant given enough food and sleep. and maybe it's the intersection of black, female, and super-confident that wigs JT out. and maybe strong women wig him out in general. remember how he assumed that Russell was in danger from a nefarious women's alliance. there's an odd pattern.

JT deserved to have his legacy ruined, I think.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

STAC Goat posted:

I mean, I'm long on record for thinking "edit reading" is 99% bullshit.

But again, I wasn't really suggesting Debbie will win. Its just my worst case scenario for the season.

Edit reading isn't an exact science, or really a science at all, but the practitioners of it were the only people that called Michele willing Kaoh Rong early.

but I think the producers have finally cottoned onto how the editing was making things too obvious to some people, because MvGX bucked some longstanding trends.


that said, my thoughts based on what we've seen

Varner - this episode was terrible for him. He was shown to be more gullible than Sandra, and less capable. He's dead meat if that tribe loses the next challenge
Brad - Getting a lot of positive attention, but in a leadership position, which can be very dangerous. at this point I think he's the most likely male winner.
Tai - just too all over the map. We've seen over and over that he's the king of idols, but strategically bumbling. at some point he's going to run out of idols.
Troyzan - I think he's long term, but I can't get much of a read on him
Ozzy - If he were going to win, wouldn't he be more featured? It's friggin' Ozzy! but it seems to me like he's getting the smallest edit he possibly could, given his legacy. Which is still pretty visible? but he's a huge threat, and All Threats Must Die.
Zeke - I swear, he's going to play himself out of the game. He's got this air of "arrogant super-fan that gets outclassed". based on what we saw in the premiere, I'd maybe venture a guess Cirie does him in.
Cirie - Her first major showcase, she was getting shut out by her whole tribe. Not a great look.
Sarah - not very visible, but keeps getting confessionals specifically about her strategy, rather than situational commentary.
Andrea - the closest to invisible we have, and what we see of her is mostly situational.
Aubry - we don't need edit reading to see she's in trouble, as she repeatedly aligned herself with someone that then got voted out. I thought she would've got more attention, though.
Hali - low-key likable, and had two really entertaining tribals. I'm not sure what to make of her.
Michaela - getting an obvious "audience favorite" vibe from her. I think she goes deep, but her difficulty letting things lie will be her undoing.
Debbie - the editors actually put in a loving flashback, which they never do, to contradict her. would they do this if she were the winner?
Sierra - Fan Favorite Sierra Dawn Thomas is getting an obvious winner's edit. :buddy:

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I'm rooting for Sarah and Hali at this point. Sierra's still super-bland, although insanely pretty.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

ApplesandOranges posted:

So who's gonna be first boot at the merge? I'm gonna guess Michaela - Mana's down 4-9, she's a challenge threat, she's lost her two closest allies back to back (Sandra and Varner), and it's hard for her to find new allies.

if there were even one more OG Mana member, it might shake out that way, but there have been enough swaps and there's enough strong-willed players among Nuku that things will break down. Things will probably hinge on Brad, Zeke, Cirie, and Ozzy. Aubry, Michaela, Troyzan, and Hali will be valuable numbers for someone.

I think if Ozzy doesn't win individual immunity, he will become the first jury member. Hell, it might even end up being unanimous, like nobody wants to fire the first real shot so everyone agrees on just booting the biggest threat left.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
thinking about it, I don't think Debbie should have used her advantage. but that depends on if she knew for sure that the other side was targeting Zeke. If she knew that, then whether Ozzy or Zeke went, it would be fine for her alliance. Ozzy would be preferable, but Zeke's untrustworthy.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

STAC Goat posted:

I don't think we're disagreeing. I said that the vote was ultimately useless but that Debbie's reasoning for using it made sense. It served as a safeguard to force a tie at worst and theoretically push people to not want that. Maybe Sarah voted that way to avoid the tie, maybe Ozzy's side would have flipped if the tie had happened. We don't know exactly how Debbie used it socially but it made sense in theory. It just didn't matter in the end, but you can't really control that.

Ozzy's a big immunity threat and he seems well liked on the island so you wouldn't want to let him get near the end. Debbie seemed to just kind of target him as the obvious threat when Sierra was all confused about what was happening with Zeke. I hate Debbie but it was a good play to just use the chaos that Zeke had caused and try and just focus everyone on a clear target like Ozzy with a simple "lets take him out now while we can" argument. Its an easy rallying cry and if Debbie can use it to score more control it could be a great move.

I'm not convinced she did that second thing since I don't think her voting block is an "alliance" that is guaranteed to vote with her again next Tribal. But at the very least she managed to keep someone allied with her in the game and get someone on the other side of the island out. So Debbie was the winner this week.

I dunno, I think that voting group will probably stick together for a while. It's about taking out all the "threats". So, Cirie, Aubry, Zeke, and Andrea need to go. It's to the advantage of all six of them for that to happen. Plus, none of them yet thinks they are at the bottom, though Tai might get antsy at some point.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
It's fascinating that Sierra has ended up taking such a dominant role in her alliance, and in the game in general. Almost certainly she felt insecure coming on, knowing people would say she didn't deserve to be there, and set out to disprove them. but maybe this is more true to who she'd be in a season that wasn't Noted Clusterfuck of Bad People Worlds Apart. there she had to hang back, and latch on to an awful group of people as they ran the game. The dynamics were set in stone. She clearly wanted to make moves, but couldn't.

I'm sad we've seen so little of Aubry, but it seems like she's been a bit overwhelmed, and never found her footing in the game, especially with being on the same tribe as Sandra and crossing her twice. really did a number on her.

I definitely feel like we're been led to a Sarah win now. I was convinced earlier it was Brad, but he's really receded into the background. and, the other issue is that few players left have gotten that much time or personal attention to their story. Aubry is apparently there for reaction shots and getting owned by Sandra. Andrea's a lot more visible now, but was purple in the beginning of the season. Troyzan is a weird dude, but we're not seeing much of it. He makes all these bizarre asides during the challenges, leading me to think that they COULD have made him more interesting, but they chose not to do that. Michaela is Michaela. Sierra is getting the beginnings of a villain edit, if I'm not mistaken. Tai is Tai.
I guess Cirie and Zeke are the only other plausible contenders, but I feel like one of them's going soon, and, uh, who in their right mind would let Cirie get to the end?

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Binary Logic posted:

Final 6 tribal:
Andrea wins Immunity
Sierra plays her legacy advantage
Troy plays his HII
Sarah plays her vote steal (and receives no votes)
Tai plays his HII
Cirie convinces Tai to put his other HII on her.

No one gets voted out?! What would happen?

I'm legitimately concerned something along these lines might happen. There's three idols currently owned, plus the legacy advantage, plus immunity. If EVERYTHING is played, the only non immune person will end up booted, even if nobody voted for them. like, say Troy and Tai vote for each other, and everyone else votes Tai. Troy and Tai play their idols, and Tai plays his other idol for his closest ally. All votes against Tai and Tai's vote against Troy are nullified, and there are no legitimate votes. This situation is roughly equivalent to a tie. However, everyone is covered with one exception. Someone has to leave, but everyone else is immune.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

STAC Goat posted:

Sierra said hers had to be played at F6. I assume the same is true for the rest so Jeff can orgasm during the craziest tribal ever.

no, the idols are usually up to final 5. however, I do think CRAZY TRIBAL is going to happen, if Tai and Troyzan remain gunshy with their idols, if both of them then get freaked out at final 6, and especially if Tai also decides to use an idol on an ally.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
the CGI Brett thing will never not be funny, though.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I love it. The only way it could be better is if it were Skeleton Island.
I'm not as worried about dumb themes as about casting, but all the recent newbie seasons have had good casting.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
lol Roark's Which Survivor are You Most Like is "if Sophie Clarke and Courtney Yates somehow had a child". High expectation-setter, that. her whole thing makes me think she's going to do very well as long as she latches onto an alliance of people that find her personality endearing. So if she's like Courtney, she needs a Todd and an Amanda.

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Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
and Cochran is writing for a lovely CBS sitcom!

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