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I'm gonna play hardball here. Pony: Michaela Poison: Ozzy I was actually considering Sierra as a pony. No, she's not gonna win. But of all the relatively invisible people, I think she has the best shot. She's reasonably good at challenges (she actually almost beat Mike on her season, who steamrolled everyone bar Carolyn once Joe was gone). She has some social savvy. She could put up with Dan for the majority of the game, which deserves a medal in and of itself. Then I remembered Michaela exists. Sorry, Sierra. As for poison, Tony/Brad are higher up on my 'insufferable' lists, but they'll likely be early boots because of their attitude/threats. Ozzy will likely stick around for longer than is healthy for the average viewer.
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Feb 25, 2017 08:27
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How is Probst going to refer to Ciera/Sierra now? The names are similar-sounding enough. I guess Ciera could get promoted to last name status.
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Feb 28, 2017 05:04
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Gabon, because you can honestly just sit back and watch every alliance implode on each other.
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Mar 2, 2017 09:47
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According to his interview Caleb thinks Sandra shouldn't have won HvV over Russell, so I'm going to say he's either a cautious Poison or he really doesn't know how to play the game. He also wants to take Cirie to the end for some reason, so I'm leaning towards the latter.
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Mar 3, 2017 12:44
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It's going to be interesting where Brad falls because he's going to irritate a lot of people, but he's also the perfect goat. Honestly he probably has a higher chance going on Day 1 than Hali.
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Mar 3, 2017 17:00
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It was a pretty cool premiere yeah. I'm still baffled at how that second vote went. I thought it was going to be one Aubry, a few Tonys, and lot of Sandra votes as Jeff read them out, but nope. I like Cirie, but I'm wary of her chances. At least she gets a new lease of life next episode. It's interesting how many of the big players want to dial their game back, while a few of the understated ones want to step it up. Well, except Ciera and Tony, and look where that got them. I'm definitely keeping an eye on Sierra. So many people underrated her but in such an amped up cast and her advantage she has serious potential. Andrea could slip under the radar too - on most seasons she wouldn't make it far, but in a cast of Cirie, Sandra and physical threats, she'll slip past quite a few votes until she makes the Ciera blunder and takes charge too much. I don't think Hali would win, but she won't be a primary target til someone decides she's an easy split vote. I'm also hoping Varner makes it far, but he's too much of a personality to make very subtle moves. Meanwhile I still don't know why people love Zeke so much. He's just a really excited fanboy who got some moderate success in his season because not that many people wanted to really head the charge.
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Mar 9, 2017 11:54
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Is there much of a point in them giving out flint even as a reward anymore? Both tribes get it after day 3 now and in most seasons these days it doesn't matter especially on returning seasons where everyone should be able to make fire. They should just include it as a basic package now or keep offering the losing tribe flint only as a reward until something like day 9 or something.
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Mar 9, 2017 13:39
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Kataphract posted:I love the lip service players give to keeping the tribe strong, and yet no one mentioned Varner's sorry performance in the challenge. Alliances and personalities trump practicality. Sandra basically said what I was thinking: if you're already losing even with your best players still around, what difference does it make trying to keep them around? I mean yeah, that's a defeatist argument, but 'keeping the tribe strong' is a pretty weak excuse after day 3. Especially since swaps are now so frequent these days that you have to expect them on day 7 or 10, so you should only care about keeping the tribe strong if you're there on the first TC.
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Mar 9, 2017 20:22
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Lone Goat posted:It turns out Tony Was Always Bad at Survivor?? Tony's strategy is really a one-shot deal. It no longer works once people cotton onto how dangerous your game is. Note how fast Russell and Cirie got taken out last time they played and people actually saw on TV that they're deadly if left alone. Savvier players will try and dial it back and adapt to their surrounding cast to take the heat off them. But Tony has one of the most maverick styles and his inability to calm down shot himself in the foot. If he was returning on a tribe of new entries (like Boston Rob), he might have been able to rally his tribemates around him. But in a season of returnees? His days were numbered as soon as he signed up. (Of course, in this day and age Russell would be pretty much a goat; nobody respects his game.)
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Mar 9, 2017 22:35
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I'm actually getting the vibe that Zeke is similar to Ciera. He's a big fan, and is just absolutely itching for people (namely himself) to play and to make big moves and to topple giants like Ozzy. Heck, he even got people to gamble on a rock draw. For that reason I'm not convinced he's winner material; just as Michaela is struggling to keep her usual self under wraps, I don't think he can really make good subtle moves and/or not let his ego get in the way when he goes head to head with someone.
ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Mar 10, 2017 |
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Mar 10, 2017 09:12
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Fast Luck posted:So why did Tony's potential people be the ones that surrendered to make that consensus, I don't know. A testament to Sandra to some degree I'm sure, maybe Troyzan also was totally set against Tony, maybe Malcolm just decided to be actively flexible and let Caleb etc know he was going the other way. Once they get into tribes of six, Malcolm is going to be basically untouchable and then there will be the chance for Sandra to become a target. Sandra is loyal to you (to a degree, until she needs to cut you to save herself). Tony will backstab you for no reason other than his own paranoia, like he did with LJ. Either way, it's much better to keep Sandra around than Tony - either she's on your tribe after the swap and you can make something happen, or if she's on another tribe, there's a decent chance she'll gel back with you after the merge. Meanwhile, Tony's such a wild factor and independent player that he's far more dangerous to keep around. Sandra's way too dangerous to sit next to at the end, but until then, as long as you're not bothering her, she's not going to look to actively hinder you.
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Mar 10, 2017 16:24
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Bolivar posted:Not overly enthused about the first episode, I found myself occasionally just putting it on "background tab" on PC and doing other stuff simultaneously. It's just extremely uninteresting to put guys like Tai or Caleb back in the game right away, and I really would prefer to spend my free time doing something other than watching Cirie year after year. Cagayan is the season you're thinking of. What happened was that Tony made it to F3 with two other people, Kass and Woo (both of whom appeared in Second Chances). Woo (who had done very actual little in the game) had the deciding vote on who to take to F2: his ally Tony, or the easy win with Kass. He picked Tony.
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Mar 12, 2017 08:31
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Bolivar posted:Oh ok, missed that season entirely. Which is probably for the best, seeing how Kass is clearly the worst human being of all time among the cast history. To re-iterate the mistake, Tony won 8-1 against Woo. Probst polled the jury at the reunion how the vote would have went if it was Woo and Kass in the F2. Woo would have won 8-1. Tony had admittedly way too much power in the game, with his special idol (that could be played after votes were read), but he did still use it intelligently; we've seen advantages that have been squandered in the past (extra votes have never been used correctly, for instance).
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Mar 12, 2017 08:44
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My favourite 'what if' would actually have been if David hadn't played his idol for Jessica last season, just because of all the potential ramifications that could have happened afterwards. Come to think of it, there's never been a rock draw before the merge, right? If someone gets eliminated by rock draw when there are still separate tribes, does Probst still goes 'X voted out last tribal council' when the tribes meet for the challenge?
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Mar 12, 2017 19:16
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I think part of it is also that 'passive' winners are generally looked down upon - also see Natalie from Samoa, where the best thing she did was make friends with people and Not Be Russell. Michele had more of an active role, since she actually did win a couple key immunities and wisely took out Neal (though the move was overall unneeded), but people don't view her in the same light as someone like Sandra, despite the latter following the 'hey just give me a name, I don't care as long as it's not me' strategy. Honestly I don't mind Michele as a winner (plus bonus points that she actually used the word 'malarkey'). It's really Scot and Jason that soured the whole thing for me. The last stretch was actually alright. Meanwhile I've actually cooled off on Millenials versus Gen X; it's a good season devoid of ugliness, but on reflection there are way too many weak players post-merge. I don't have that high of an opinion of most of them other than David, Jay and Ken; Zeke/Adam/Hannah got way too gamey for my liking, and Sunday/Bret/Chris/Will were just kind of... there. Say what you like about Ken's social game, but his strategy would actually have been good ten or so seasons ago - win challenges, show loyalty to one to two people. He just wasn't outgoing or endearing enough.
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Mar 14, 2017 06:13
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Spatula City posted:She had a Reddit AMA recently, and said she wished she'd known to play more to the cameras, especially in confessionals. I'm convinced it was the latter, and my ire is reserved mostly for the producers, editors, and maybe a little for Debbie for being a lunatic. The editing in Cambodia was pretty poor. Way too much time spent on Spencer for starters, and then lots of characters were invisible, even people who made it to the top 6 like Kimmi and Tasha. They do get points for roasting Fishbach at every opportunity. Narcissus1916 posted:Am I the only one happy to have Aubrey back? Really love her gameplay and think she was definitely shafted by a pissy jury. Nobody would have complained if Aubry won, but I don't think she got shafted. One thing to keep in mind is that the viewers see things the contestants don't, and vice versa. Maybe Aubry pissed off people more than we thought, or they didn't see some of the moves we did. Jury management IS a crucial part of the game. It's like how people would grill some contestants, like Denise from Philippines, for condescending attitudes (which we might not even see). Both Aubry and Michele had a good path to the end, but Michele had a better read of the room. Kind of like how the whole jury figured Hannah was a slam dunk to sit against last season, even though a lot of us saw some good moves she made. Or how the jury didn't see a lot of Wentworth's moves in Cambodia til they actually watched the season. Some juries will respect big moves, some respect social game. You have to be able to pander to either if you want to be an adaptable winner. You're the one putting them there, after all. ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Mar 14, 2017 |
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Mar 14, 2017 11:28
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Eh when you get swapped and you're in the minority with another person it goes two ways - either you go after each other, or you try to work together. It's possible we could have seen a Hali/Caleb/Tai trio and maybe pull Debbie in, but Hali and Tai generally don't have a lot of authority and Caleb's in the minority. Caleb and Hali don't seem close at all, so they pretty much avoided each other like the plague. Also Caleb now joins Francesca in 'never made the merge twice'. At least Varner made it to the merge first time he played!
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Mar 16, 2017 10:34
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quote:Wigler: I want to ask you about something from the pre-game. You were pretty salty about Sandra going into the game. I know you have changed your opinion since then; you said so on Twitter, that you have a lot more respect for Sandra now than you did from before the game. When did that shift happen for you? Looks like Caleb wised up to Russell at least (he was regularly talking to him for advice before the game).
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Mar 17, 2017 10:42
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It'll be interesting to see how the TCs go next episode. Since only one tribe can escape elimination and all three tribes have a one-member minority, it seems like it'd be easy eliminations for two of Hali/Troyzan/J.T. But Troyzan has an idol, J.T. might swing things against Sandra, and Hali's so non-threatening there isn't much of a reason to get rid of her - even if you want to keep the tribe strong, Hali is at least a decent swimmer and seems to have some puzzle ability, so you could just axe Tai instead - he's an active detriment to almost any alliance he's in. Honestly if I had to guess, the vote-outs might be Tai/Andrea/J.T., because I'm not sure J.T. can effectively swing things enough, and if Troyzan had to idol out somebody, if he's smart he'll take out not one of the big threats, so he can keep a shield if he has to. So it'd be between Sarah/Andrea/Zeke. I think Sierra might be able to take charge of her tribe - the guys are in the minority, Sierra wants to do all-girls, and it'd be good on her resume to make a flip. ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 12:07 on Mar 18, 2017 |
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Mar 18, 2017 12:01
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Nexal posted:Interesting scenario if troyzan pulls idol in play and the votes go 3 on him 1 on someone else and 1 someone other. Can't troyzan force the remaining 2 voters to go for rocks? I would love that and that would singlehandedly propel Troyzan (or whoever came up with that plan) to the top of my list for this season. It's almost a shame Kass isn't there, that's the kind of chaos she would thrive on.
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Mar 19, 2017 00:16
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SLICK GOKU BABY posted:You can bank on it if you pay any attention at all to Survivor. Like if they follow just about every other Survivor season, they will go back to 2 tribes at 14 then merge at 12. The Legacy advantage seems to pretty much confirm they'll be merging at 13. That and the double TC means that we'll hit the merge in four episodes. They could still do a re-merge (Gabon did a second swap that lasted a very short time before the merge), but it'd be pretty tight.
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Mar 19, 2017 08:53
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Yeah, I don't think this was a great twist. It's not Outcast levels bad, Malcolm got screwed really badly, worse than a tribe swap or rock draw.
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Mar 23, 2017 11:14
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Varner must have been kicking himself after that tribal though, what with him flubbing it at that challenge. Honestly wonder how it would have gone if it was Red vs. Green instead. The green tribe's been getting so little focus, aside from a couple Ozzy scenes.
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Mar 23, 2017 14:48
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Also Aubry has been practically invisible. Michaela hasn't been doing much better, either, but she had some screentime in the first episode. Still doesn't really bode well for them if they've been so downplayed.
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Mar 23, 2017 15:45
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If they're even doing Mana-Nuku in the first place. They swapped so early it could go down to the three tribe lines. Honestly if I was J.T. I'd be really scared going back to camp. You've basically burned every possible bridge you have of mending fences with the rest of your tribe, and it didn't even work out in your favour. Is Malcolm the biggest fan favourite to go out? I mean people loved Tony, but he had his dissenters too, and at least he played himself out. Malcolm was generally well-liked, and taken out in a twist probably nobody thought was completely fair - either you have the numbers going in, or you get completely overplayed/betrayed. And unlike a merge situation, you don't have the time to try and swing people over.
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Mar 23, 2017 23:37
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Yeah, it's quite obvious that J.T. overplayed. He gave away too much information, and he should have just sucked it up, tell them why they should switch the vote, and then go back and get a proper grilling. Now he's very adamantly 1v4. And he should have heeded the warning Brad gave Hali. Even if he got Sandra voted out, he's going back to camp outnumbered; him and Malcolm vs. Aubry, Varner and Michaela. His best hope right now is to keep winning immunity for his tribe, otherwise he's a dead man walking. Honestly the more he plays the more he's going to come off as Ozzy with more charisma - never trust the guy with strategy. ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 06:37 on Mar 24, 2017 |
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Mar 24, 2017 06:34
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The more I think about it, the more I think this wasn't a great twist. Even if the person eliminated was say Sierra, it wouldn't have been fair to her. She had no chance of communicating with the other tribe. Heck, if it was someone like Tony that was eliminated, there would be foul decries of it for years to come. On a setting like One World? This twist would actually have been good - both tribes were living on the same beach. But here, it was just kind of chaos for chaos' sake. Like a merge without any of the benefits of merging. The idea has potential, it was just sloppy in the finer details. Not Medallion of Power bad at least.
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Mar 25, 2017 01:42
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STAC Goat posted:I love JT but that was idiotic. Like, if you're going to betray your tribe and give away who they're targeting why not finish it? Do that tribe flip on Sandra. There's a chance it screws you if they don't listen, vote out Malcolm, and leave you outnumbered on a tribe you betrayed. But oh look... that's where you are now. At least then you were trying to make a power move on your tribe to take control. I don't really know what JT was hoping to accomplish the way he played. I guess he expected Sandra to go and that he'd be able to manage the fallout of betrayal with "we had to get Sandra out". J.T. did tell them to vote Sandra. The consensus seems to be that J.T. kept trying to push them to do it, then halfway through realized that they weren't going to budge and that he had screwed everything up. That's when he panicked and tried to get everyone to move away from Sierra. Malcolm's interview says that what we didn't see was J.T. looking really shattered towards the end of the whole pre-vote huddles. He had no choice but to rejoin his tribe in trying to vote out Sierra. Assuming the idol wasn't in play, there were three outcomes: 1. J.T. sticks with his tribe. They manage to vote Sierra out, everything's good 2. J.T. flips to try to vote out Sandra. 5 votes for Sierra, 5 votes for Malcolm. Nobody budges, so rock draw. 3. J.T. and Malcolm both flip. 2 votes for Sandra, 4 votes for Sierra, 5 votes for Malcolm. Malcolm goes home and you look dumb.
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Mar 25, 2017 07:17
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its me glenda posted:rock draw honestly is probably the safer political move there but i could see everyone coming to a consensus to just vote out hali Hali would be the 'safe' vote, but the one with the least long-term benefit, since Hali might be able to rejoin them on the merge (remember that original Mana was down 7-10 at that point). Since they had the majority it makes sense that they'd try and get out an original Nuku while they still could.
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Mar 25, 2017 07:28
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STAC Goat posted:My point (which I probably didn't verbalize well) is that if JT wanted to use the other tribe to take out Sandra then the only way it really works is if he has the numbers to take control of his tribe. So like if he could get Malcolm and Varner to vote for Sandra but not Audrey and Michaela (I'm picking randomly) he'd be risking a rock draw in a regular tribal. But if he can get the other tribe to throw five votes on her then he can just take her out and take control. For 2, J.T. doesn't necessarily need three votes for Sandra. All he needed was for the other tribe to vote for Sandra, then he could flip and take her out. When the tribe goes back, he can buddy up with Malcolm, then they have three days at least to flip someone like Varner over to get a majority - without Sandra's centralizing presence he'd have an easier time making a crack. Which might be what he was hoping for that night, the other tribe just didn't want to play along. It's honestly a smarter move for them to eliminate Malcolm before Sandra - it will always be easy making a case to eliminate Sandra, while Malcolm is a harder sell as long as he can duck behind shields, especially once merge happens. 3 is the best GAME CHANGER move, but while it might have worked, well, Malcolm did the same thing last time he played and he didn't make it very much further. Mike also tried it in Worlds Apart and the gambit didn't really pay off (Tyler got spooked but that's natural when your name's on the chopping block).
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Mar 26, 2017 01:04
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Max posted:Watching that last tribal again, I think Hali comes out OK on her current tribe. She was working to move the vote, and didn't give away the presence of the idol. JT on the other hand . . . It doesn't exactly say good things about J.T. when he was effectively out done by Hali.
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Mar 27, 2017 09:59
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sportsgenius86 posted:After Hali's tribe pissed her off, I don't understand why she didn't out Tai's idol. 1. She might not have known about it. Tai found the idol and showed it to his tribe, but Hali wasn't in the shot. 2. She'd be stuck in a really bad position if she's blatantly defied them like that. Like it or not, she's going back to camp with these people. They would honestly probably not mind throwing a challenge to both get rid of a Mana member and someone who's actively undermining them. The best thing for her is to lay low til the merge.
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Mar 27, 2017 16:11
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I'm really glad they're swapping again, because watching Tavua's members be utterly invisible was boring. EDIT: The ultimate Chaos move Varner could have done would be to vote for someone else entirely, forcing a 2-2 tie and either forcing Aubry to vote J.T., or make everyone draw rocks. It wouldn't even burn him that much because Sandra would appreciate the mayhem, and Aubry can't do much in protest. ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 11:13 on Mar 30, 2017 |
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Mar 30, 2017 10:35
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From the XFINITY blog:
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Mar 30, 2017 21:05
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STAC Goat posted:I legitimately never retain any tribe names. Like even mid-episode. I just can't bring myself to care, it seems. How dare you forget the proud tribe names that were Nobag and Enil Edam. Also just realized last night that four of the first five boots were white guys. It's like the reverse MvG. ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 01:56 on Mar 31, 2017 |
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Mar 31, 2017 01:52
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It's funny because in her first two seasons, Candice's flips ended up causing more trouble than she was worth - the Aitu 4 destroyed everyone else in Cook Islands, and Candice's flip in HvV sealed the Heroes' fate in HvV since Sandra was going to flip on the Villians, but she gave up once Candice flipped. So she doesn't really have a high ground to talk down to J.T. I don't blame her tribe for ousting her first in BvW. She's not exactly the most reliable ally.
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Mar 31, 2017 15:10
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I'm hoping Sandra/Michaela/Varner stick together. The trio have a very solid level of sass and subterfuge. In a fun way too, not like Scot/Jason "let's hide the machete because we're sour lemons".its me glenda posted:fun hypothetical time: if sandra makes it to the end is there anyone who beats her? maybe brad? and even that feels like a stretch. It's way too early to tell at this point. I could actually see Brad beating her, he's had a very good storyline so far, and if Nuku keeps their majority going into the merge he'll have a good number of friends on the jury. As much as I'd like Varner to win, he's not exactly a star player. But you never know, some players' games don't really kick off til the merge, and him finally making it to the jury phase might shift him into 'let's play' mode.
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Apr 1, 2017 02:37
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STAC Goat posted:Eh, I'm not much of a Varner fan, but I also think he won't stick with Sandra for long. I don't even think he's really with Sandra at all. He just decided that he rather have Michaela around than JT for whatever reason. Varner seems like one of those players who can't stop tinkering and eventually blows up his game. There's no way he'll be content running alongside Sandra. Michaela is probably his new Abi-Maria - she might be a little abrasive, but she's also a good shield and, depending on how much she annoys people, could be out-talked at the end. I think Michaela is too proactive of a player to be considered a goat, but if there's one thing Varner can do, it's talk. I think the season is off to a decent start so far, but it's still early days. All returnee seasons tend to either be really good or really bad.
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Apr 2, 2017 15:39
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I haven't actually watched Australia but I might consider it just to see how Varner was all those years ago. He's aged very well at least. I think my first season was... All-Stars, but I didn't actually actively start watching til Gabon. Took a break between Caramoan and Worlds Apart.
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Apr 3, 2017 03:29
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HvV has probably done a lot in terms of changing strategic thinking. Idols are much more of a thing from that season on thanks to Russell (to the point that developers had to get more creative with hiding them). There were some very clever plays on baiting split votes, like Tyson voting himself out or Colby/Rupert dogpiling their votes to get Candice out because of the split. There's a classic example of how you can play a really risky move and have it not work out (J.T.). And it's also a good example of how important jury management is in this game. If China is an example of how you can turn things around and win because of your jury speech, HvV is an example of how you can screw up your game so badly that you have absolutely zero chance of winning. Russell's chances were nil as soon as it got down to... what, top 8 or 9, because literally anyone else would have been preferred by the jury.
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Apr 3, 2017 22:31
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