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GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.
Congressional Representative and incumbent Republican Tom Price has resigned his seat to join Trump's team. It is predicted to be the most crowded and expensive election in Georgia history.

If no candidate reaches 50 percent, the top two finishers, regardless of party, will advance to a June 20 runoff.

We're looking at our first real opportunity to gain ground on the national stage and take a seat from the Republicans, and the candidate leading the charge seems pretty damned good.

His name is Jon Ossof, and he seems like the right sort of guy.

Here's a link to what I'm guessing is an AP article or a press release since like a dozen sites are running it unmodified.
http://www.dogonvillage.com/2017/02...bid-in-georgia/

quote:

A Georgia native who grew up in the Sixth District, Ossoff served Georgia as a national security staffer in Congress for five years before leaving government for the private sector.

Since 2013, he has been managing partner and CEO of a small business that produces investigations targeting corrupt officials and organized crime for international news organizations.

Ossoff has been active in Georgia politics since his youth and has managed or advised six winning Congressional campaigns in Georgia since 2006. His mother, Heather Fenton, is co-founder of NewPower PAC, an organization that works to elect women to local office across Georgia.

Over more than five years as a Congressional aide, Ossoff drafted and managed legislative initiatives that passed the House and Senate and helped to craft major defense and consumer protection legislation.

Ossoff participated six times in the Congressional appropriations process, helping deliver millions of dollars of education and transportation resources to Georgia, and he conducted Congressional oversight of the Pentagon and the U.S. Department of Justice.

In 2015, after entering the private sector, Ossoff led a team that secretly filmed and exposed more than 30 corrupt judges taking bribes in Ghana. This year, producing a documentary for the BBC, he led a team that exposed atrocities committed by ISIS in Iraq.

“I have known and worked with Jon for many years. Jon is committed to progress and justice and he knows how to fight the good fight,”

You can support him here:
https://electjon.com/

He's not the only one running, though. On the Democratic side we have:
- Ragin Edwards, sales senior manager
- Richard Keatley, college professor and former officer in the Navy
- Rebecca Quigg, physician
- Ron Slotin, former State Senator and candidate for GA-04 in 1996

And then on the Republican side, we have:
The likely candidates:
- Judson Hill, former State Senator
- Karen Handel, former Secretary of State of Georgia, candidate for Governor in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014

and a bunch of hopefuls.

GlyphGryph has issued a correction as of 18:21 on Mar 3, 2017

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G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

This district is one of those southern, diversifying, high education suburbs that Donald Trump did very poorly in relative to other Republicans. Price won re-election by 23, Romney won it in 2012 by 23, but Trump won it by 2. It could be a major test case both A. if the current energy on the left is enough to drive turnout to start winning special elections (Delaware was hopefully a good sign here) and B. if these higher education, diverse suburbs in places like Georgia and Texas may flip Dem if the Gop brand can totally be tied to Donald Trump.

Ossoff winning this race would be taken as a significant sign that the Democrats have a real chance to take the house, and put a lot more pressure on Republicans in congress now to break from Trump to try to save themselves. It could be a lot like Scott Brown in 2010, which was a precursor of the republican 2010 wave and sapped support from Obama for other legislation. Basically, it is potentially a Really Big Deal.

tadashi
Feb 20, 2006

This is how the GOP is coming after Ossoff:

A GOP Super PAC already launched an attack on Ossoff trying to frame him as an entitled frat boy with no experience, and they claim they "... [have] more coming that is being prepped against Ossoff":

http://www.npr.org/2017/03/02/518136415/attack-ad-marks-new-era-for-millennials-running-for-office

He also doesn't live in the district currently (he grew up there and currently lives 10 minutes south of it) but plans to move back into it as soon as his girlfriend finishes med school at Emory. They moved there so she could walk to classes.

The Muppets On PCP
Nov 13, 2016

by Fluffdaddy
good luck to the freshly scrubbed overachiever young dem

hope nobody takes it too bad when he loses by 10 points to the zaxby's chicken mascot

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

The Muppets On PCP posted:

good luck to the freshly scrubbed overachiever young dem

hope nobody takes it too bad when he loses by 10 points to the zaxby's chicken mascot

Didn't the last Dem running for this position lose by 20? Isn't the district majority conservative?

In that case losing by 10 would be an improvment.

Mariana Horchata
Jun 30, 2008

College Slice
seen



my words are backed with nuclear shitposts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4abVq2nyYg

Trumpenproletariat
Nov 26, 2016

by zen death robot
Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine.

Peachfart
Jan 21, 2017

Trumpenproletariat posted:

Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine.

'lets sit around and wait for something to happen before we do anything'

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Trumpenproletariat posted:

Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine.

lol sorry your life is hard

Trumpenproletariat
Nov 26, 2016

by zen death robot

Bip Roberts posted:

lol sorry your life is hard

It was pretty hard under President Obama, but since Donald Trump took over I found a great job within the fortnight.

Trump don't waste no time in Making America Great Again.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Seems like if any district is designed for Clinton's national strategy to work it would be this one, but I'm not sure how it'll turn out since he's just running against Trump enablers rather than Trump himself

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

Badger of Basra posted:

Seems like if any district is designed for Clinton's national strategy to work it would be this one, but I'm not sure how it'll turn out since he's just running against Trump enablers rather than Trump himself
if Ossoff were smart, he'd link his genera election opponent to the horrible policies that Trump and the GOP-majority congress want for the american people. and no, screaming "RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA" is not one of them

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Trumpenproletariat posted:

Not with Tom Perez and the Clintonites still in charge. I prefer to let the pathetic neoliberal Democratic Party wither and die until a genuinely populist alternative takes its place upon the vine.

Not sure if you are aware but they are not just gonna go away. They are entrenched. But if we create a genuine progressive wave then we get the opportunity to create space they dont yet own, which weakens them in the process. The establishment absolutely does not want to see a massive wave expanding the Democratic party. Look at what that got the Rs - primaried leadership, tea party troublemakers, and a loose cannon as President that is making them all bend the knee despite their hatred of him.

Putting the Democrars on the offense and giving them big wins is the absolute best way to weaken their leaderships grip on power.

Because they may not win without us, but theres no way they are going to get out of the way.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

get that OUT of my face posted:

if Ossoff were smart, he'd link his genera election opponent to the horrible policies that Trump and the GOP-majority congress want for the american people. and no, screaming "RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA" is not one of them

what % of the people in this district are actually opposed to those policies though, is what I'm curious about

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

get that OUT of my face posted:

if Ossoff were smart, he'd link his genera election opponent to the horrible policies that Trump and the GOP-majority congress want for the american people. and no, screaming "RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA" is not one of them

If he were smart he would build a powerful message and a narrative that casts himself as the hero capable of bringing about positive change, and simply use Trump as a point of contrast and a rhetorical wedge.

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

Badger of Basra posted:

what % of the people in this district are actually opposed to those policies though, is what I'm curious about
people in deep red states like oklahoma and wyoming have made their senators' voicemail boxes full over stuff like taking away health coverage, so probably more than you'd think

GlyphGryph posted:

If he were smart he would build a powerful message and a narrative that casts himself as the hero capable of bringing about positive change, and simply use Trump as a point of contrast and a rhetorical wedge.
yeah that's a better plan

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/country-club-republican-strikes-back_us_58caf59ce4b0ec9d29da2f19?wde428zl0ahhq6w29a

New article about how the election go. Lots of money being poured in for sure.

Agean90
Jun 28, 2008



Hopefully a good showing the the dems there will convince the national level that the concept of "red states" is bullshit and that any state can be contested if they're willing actually contest it. I've said it on this subforum a hundred times and ill say it again, the only reason GA isnt a swing state is because the democrats are unwilling to turn it into one.

Fog Tripper
Mar 3, 2008

by Smythe

Agean90 posted:

Hopefully a good showing the the dems there will convince the national level that the concept of "red states" is bullshit and that any state can be contested if they're willing actually contest it. I've said it on this subforum a hundred times and ill say it again, the only reason GA isnt a swing state is because the democrats are unwilling to turn it into one.

It might be that democrats are horrible. :shrug:

The "offensive":



Honestly, how can you even remotely talk about "Offensive" when you continuously re-elect people like Wasserman, Pelosi, Schumer and the rest of the incumbent rot?

Fog Tripper has issued a correction as of 22:31 on Mar 17, 2017

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

schumer at least shows some indication of knowing which way the wind is blowing. pelosi still defiantly insists that nothing is wrong

Agean90
Jun 28, 2008


Fog Tripper posted:

It might be that democrats are horrible. :shrug:


??? yes thats basically what i said

The_Politics_Man
Aug 25, 2015
The only thing being offensive is the Dems.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.
https://twitter.com/stevesingiser/status/843838216184594432

New GA-6 poll has Ossoff at 41, Gray and Handel close for 2nd at 16. All GOP folks combined at just 48%.

Seems pretty promising?

GlyphGryph has issued a correction as of 18:30 on Mar 20, 2017

Ogmius815
Aug 25, 2005
centrism is a hell of a drug

GlyphGryph posted:

https://twitter.com/stevesingiser/status/843838216184594432

New GA-6 poll has Ossoff at 41, Gray and Handel close for 2nd at 16. All GOP folks combined at just 48%.

I'm not sure how that math actually adds up but... seems pretty promising?

How does that seem promising? It seems like it suggests the GOP has more support than Ossoff. You're kidding yourself if you think that 100% of supporters for other democrats will vote for Ossoff. The democrats seem to be looking at a tea party-type problem here: democratic primary voters want a liberal, but a liberal may not be able to beat the Republican.

GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

Ogmius815 posted:

How does that seem promising? It seems like it suggests the GOP has more support than Ossoff. You're kidding yourself if you think that 100% of supporters for other democrats will vote for Ossoff. The democrats seem to be looking at a tea party-type problem here: democratic primary voters want a liberal, but a liberal may not be able to beat the Republican.

The GOP as a whole is polling less than 50% in a race that last went GOP by 61 to 38, and normally hovers around 65% support for the GOP.

Ossof is already, individually, polling higher than any Democratic party candidate in the district in the last decade and a half (possibly longer, that's as far back as I checked). His party is polling higher than he is, and the Republicans are polling poorly.

How exactly are you interpreting this where it isn't seen as "positive"? Even if he loses, these are big gains for the Dems and it is a very strong showing in an area that is traditionally hardcore Republican to see the Republicans failing to cross 50% support.

GlyphGryph has issued a correction as of 18:36 on Mar 20, 2017

tadashi
Feb 20, 2006

Ogmius815 posted:

How does that seem promising? It seems like it suggests the GOP has more support than Ossoff. You're kidding yourself if you think that 100% of supporters for other democrats will vote for Ossoff. The democrats seem to be looking at a tea party-type problem here: democratic primary voters want a liberal, but a liberal may not be able to beat the Republican.

I can't read the link because the site is down but if Ossoff is being sandbagged by a few Democrats, then the total Democratic share of the vote is higher than just his 41%. There is also the hope that Trump will be so toxic by the general election date that Republicans will actually defect like they did in '06 and he wouldn't need a lot of defections to carry him.

HorseRenoir
Dec 25, 2011



Pillbug
There's another dem polling at 3%, so Ossoff is only 4 points behind if you assume both sides consolidate perfectly and turnout equally. If Ossoff has the enthusiasm advantage and Trump continues to poo poo the bed leading up to the general, he might actually win this. Even losing by 4 points in a core GOP district would be huge.

Tricky Dick Nixon
Jul 26, 2010

by Nyc_Tattoo
If Republican voter turnout goes down and Democratic turnout goes up and outperforms the polls then it could actually be a genuine win, not to mention the possible effects of a second round. Not to mention it demonstrates that a simple, concise message on raising the minimum wage, expanding healthcare coverage, and accountability in politics can play very well in districts that have been given up on by the consensus for years. Like he demonstrably does not have anything in his platform towards catering towards a red state demographic on social issues either. It's a perfect storm really because of Donald Trump's unpopularity in the district, shifting demographics, and the field not having a clear success to Tom Price, but its still something for any people trying to get more people elected on a progressive agenda should pay attention to.

Ogmius815
Aug 25, 2005
centrism is a hell of a drug

I guess my analysis of that poll is colored by my recent experience with elections. I now assume that democrats will loose every election until the votes are in and the D candidate has more of them.

Gringostar
Nov 12, 2016
Morbid Hound

Ogmius815 posted:

I guess my analysis of that poll is colored by my recent experience with elections. I now assume that democrats will loose every election until the votes are in and the D candidate has more of them.

and sometimes not even then

HorseRenoir
Dec 25, 2011



Pillbug
New polls: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/03/democrat-gaining-ground-in-georgia-special-election.html

Ossoff is polling +1 against the most likely challenger, which is pretty huge

Corny
Feb 18, 2006

i am scared
Just throwing in some links to tweets from Nate Cohn about how the early vote is turning out in the GA-6th

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/846531645272403968

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/846892024146018304

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/847256025275269120

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/847257153450594305

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
The fact that 2014 R turnout was still higher than 2017 D turnout so far kind of depresses me. What's it like to have a party that cares about midterms :(

HorseRenoir
Dec 25, 2011



Pillbug

nachos posted:

The fact that 2014 R turnout was still higher than 2017 D turnout so far kind of depresses me. What's it like to have a party that cares about midterms :(

In all fairness, turnout for special elections are even lower than midterms. It's pretty nuts that dems are pulling midterm GOP level numbers for a 2017 special election

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

HorseRenoir posted:

In all fairness, turnout for special elections are even lower than midterms. It's pretty nuts that dems are pulling midterm GOP level numbers for a 2017 special election

there are also simply more republicans than democrats

HorseRenoir
Dec 25, 2011



Pillbug
more early voting data. higher turnout than 2014 so far

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/848200288863432704

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/848207577917870080

the question now is not if Ossoff will win the first round, but if he can get 50% and avoid a runoff

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
how badly will him winning scare republicans?

HorseRenoir
Dec 25, 2011



Pillbug

Jose posted:

how badly will him winning scare republicans?

Ossoff losing by 5 would freak the GOP out, Ossoff winning would put Republicans in defcon 1 "oh poo poo we're losing the house" mode. Tom Price won this district by like 20 points

DEEP STATE PLOT
Aug 13, 2008

Yes...Ha ha ha...YES!



i swear to god if the dems don't properly take advantage of the kind of attitudes that are leading to poo poo like this race being as close as it is i am done with the party. they absolutely have to keep doing with other dems what they are doing with ossoff even if it's a district they likely won't win.

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Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

financially racist posted:

i swear to god if the dems don't properly take advantage of the kind of attitudes that are leading to poo poo like this race being as close as it is i am done with the party. they absolutely have to keep doing with other dems what they are doing with ossoff even if it's a district they likely won't win.

lol yeah

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