|
Woot. Thanks Leon. Health insurance lobby  Any word on how all this works with reconciliation? Quite a few pieces, like the new mandate, seem blatantly against reconciliation rules.
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 03:26
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 13:36 |
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:Is this where I wail and gnash my teeth You and me both buddy.  AFAIK this is the latest polling on the ACA favorables. http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-future-directions-for-the-aca-and-medicaid/ The medicaid bits are truly eye-opening.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 03:32
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Estimates based off of Medicaid changes and a Kaiser Health study. Commonwealth have a pretty good economic impact brief on a repeal but it doesn't reflect AHCA. http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2017/jan/repealing-federal-health-reform 
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 03:40
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:There will be. The re-wrote the bill from the original draft form because the initial CBO score was incredibly bad (up to 20 million losing coverage, increased cost to consumers, and uncertain funding mechanisms.) If there's no CBO score, how can it pass reconciliation?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 03:49
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They are going to have to define a funding mechanism in the final bill and get a CBO score. Alright, I assume it'll be one of those dynamically scored ones where tax cuts make the economy grow by 1000%. How do republicans plan on making the necessary statutory changes to ACA? I know they can just defund the various parts they don't like but they can't add any statutes like their new mandate.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 03:56
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:I think we should focus on all the kids this will kill. Children are in most states the smallest part of their medicaid outlays. The fastest growing medicaid outlay after CLA's is payments to LTC facilities. In some states, especially in those that haven't expanded medicaid, it is the largest outlay. The whole LTC industry depends on medicaid and likewise all those patients.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 04:19
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:Ok, fair enough. I'm going by what I've picked up at the local level, not detailed study of the national numbers. I know that in my state 46% of the children in the state are on Medicaid, so, yeah . . . I'm not speaking hypothetically, I've already seen numerous attempts to cut children's services in my state (disguised as prior authorization requirements, usually). Absolutely the way it's gonna go. Mark Blyth put it well when he said the Boomers are scavenging every dollar they can from the young and poor to protect their status. Making children healthy is a super efficient use of healthcare dollars but the Boomers want that money to afford a third knee replacement.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 04:30
|
|
|
Mokelumne Trekka posted:Sorry if this was asked - any experts want to weigh in on probability of Republicans success with repeal and replace? Gonna have to see how it shakes out. It's a real compromise bill, republican idea of a compromise, and there's quite a few republicans who won't accept anything short of a full repeal. Then there are four republican senators who won't accept rolling back the medicaid expansion. On top of ~7 republican governors who don't want it cut as well. Opposing is an army of Koch purchased lobbyists and media campaign staff that are rolling out as we speak.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 04:45
|
|
|
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-repeal-conservatives-235753quote:“This is Obamacare by a different form,” former Freedom Caucus chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told POLITICO. “They’re still keeping the taxes in place and Medicaid expansion, and they’re starting a new entitlement.” It begins.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 04:50
|
|
|
KillHour posted:If they pass the bill, everything breaks. If they don't pass the bill, nothing happens. Eventually, the Cadillac Tax kicks in and it was meant to be 50% of ACA's revenue stream. I don't think it'll zero out ACA but it will make what it adds to the deficit much smaller. I can't imagine how AHCA will beat ACA in that regard. You can't square cutting taxes with additional expenditures and expect it to be deficit neutral. No matter how much you use the dynamic scoring cheat.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 21:00
|
|
|
My hope is Paul Ryan has a meltdown and blames everyone for not appreciating his Randian dream. Reality will be generic Ryan platitudes masking the truth with not being able to afford health care is a choice, checkmate.
Bueno Papi fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Mar 7, 2017 |
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 21:58
|
|
|
Since we don't have the CBO analysis, here's S&P's. https://goo.gl/ST44OQ 
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 22:13
|
|
|
KFF has a good summary on AHCA. http://files.kff.org/attachment/Proposals-to-Replace-the-Affordable-Care-Act-Summary-of-the-American-Health-Care-Act
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 22:42
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:Yeah that is basically it. It's not a health care plan. Its a "politically, how do we tick the box that says 'repealed obamacare'" plan. They may not agree on replacement but there is unanimity for repealing all of the taxes and that can be done with reconciliation. Even then, they have a debt ceiling vote that needs to happen and it will occur during all this healthcare reform debate. Republicans really do suck at governing. https://twitter.com/AARPadvocates/status/838847647033274369 AARP: shots fired.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 22:57
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:There is not unanimity for repealing the taxes. The "moderates" won't vote to repeal the taxes without replacement because they know they're not getting any replacement then. That was kiboshed when repeal and replace, maybe, sometime in the future got kiboshed. Fair enough. Hospital industry is none too pleased with AHCA. https://twitter.com/adamcancryn/status/839225163568799744
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 23:05
|
|
|
Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:
Biggest lobbying group I could find that supports AHCA is american retail federation. Sure makes it easier for them if they don't have to give their employees health insurance. Unfortunately for Paul Ryan, ARF hates the DBCFT.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 23:32
|
|
|
eviltastic posted:I've been looking and have not seen an explanation: why isn't the selling across state lines thing in the bill? Were there House members pushing back against that? It would require statutory changes and reconciliation can't do that.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 23:48
|
|
|
eviltastic posted:Derp, yeah, makes sense. Thanks. As mdemone said, Trump wants to revisit healthcare reform a second or even third time to get what he wants. The idea that congress is going to revisit this during a midterm election year is kinda nuts. If they get 60 in the senate after 2018, then they'll be able to do it but all the opposition in their party will still be there strangling any plan. Bueno Papi fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Mar 8, 2017 |
|
#
¿
Mar 7, 2017 23:57
|
|
|
eviltastic posted:Speaking of the Senate: It's insane that the AHCA rollout happened like this. My assumption was that the WH took this as "a good first step", I think that's how Trump put it, and expected it to be worked over with amendments to bring in the other votes. But nope, Costa is saying that the WH is full speed ahead on AHCA. Why didn't the WH do a full court presser to try to shape the narrative? They let house release it and gave the media an entire day before they started their spin. I like to think Boehner is watching this and is screaming at the TV saying, "Amateurs."
|
|
#
¿
Mar 8, 2017 00:13
|
|
|
Mechafunkzilla posted:Do you guys think medicare-for-all is a saleable idea for the American people? Possible but it'd just be easier to pick at the market segments that private health insurance have abandoned. We've largely been successful doing that. Started with Medicare/Medicaid. Then the Medicaid expansion. Next step is a public option for the individual market. As private health insurance gets out-competed on cost by a public option, add in time, a mish-mash of public health insurances that can reformed into one budget.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 8, 2017 04:53
|
|
|
Brookings' assessment is 15m uninsured by 2026. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2017/03/09/expect-the-cbo-to-estimate-large-coverage-losses-from-the-gop-health-care-plan/ 
|
|
#
¿
Mar 9, 2017 21:06
|
|
|
The Republican plan for healthcare reform has been to cut taxes. If they have to cut spending to afford the tax cuts, all the better.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 9, 2017 21:58
|
|
|
There are people who are seriously arguing that Ryan/Republicans don't really want to pass AHCA. When have Republicans never been serious about cutting taxes for the rich?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2017 00:12
|
|
|
Peven Stan posted:When does the CBO score come out? I read on NPR or somewhere that if it adds 1 or more billions to the deficit then it can't be passed through reconciliation correct? No. Has to do with the Byrd Rule and the sunset provision. Basically, if the budget adds to the deficit after the budget period, typically done for ten years, it violates the Byrd Rule and thusly must have a sunset provision. A good example is the Bush tax cuts. Enacted in 2001, obviously added to the deficit*, they ended in 2011. Republicans tried to argue that tax cuts pay for themselves. Bueno Papi fucked around with this message at 02:31 on Mar 11, 2017 |
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2017 02:25
|
|
|
Boon posted:Hey all, figured I'd drop in and post this as an interesting discussion on the ACA and healthcare in America that I got to sit in on last week. I know two of these three panelists personally and they are all heavy-hitters on this topic - it's definitely a worthwhile listen for those of you in here who are interested. You're that Parente acolyte from the Trump thread, right? Always nice to hear a well-respected academic, in Republican circles, describe poor people getting health care as "inefficiencies" and the only fix is take away poor people's health care with "market-based solutions".
|
|
#
¿
Mar 11, 2017 23:26
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:Once again the Trump team is making it way worse on themselves than they have to be. There are a number of known ways to game CBO estimates that they're pretty clearly not even bothering with. Dynamic scoring would help with the deficit but not the number of uninsured.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 12, 2017 20:55
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:I think the people making the request can force the CBO to stipulate basically whatever situations they want. It's true that it's a transparent abuse, but it would confuse the narrative and get competing numbers out there "from the CBO". It was a common tactic in the past, but, as usual, the Trump admin isn't even competent in its evil. Within reason they take requests but the CBO also says health insurance is a consumer product with a specific definition. Prior to the new congressional term CBO said what is and is not health insurance. It's why republicans are trying out new talking points to diminish the CBO and the "who needs health insurance anyways?"
|
|
#
¿
Mar 12, 2017 21:58
|
|
|
It doesn't matter if people are uninsured as long as they can afford healthcare. Should be noted that Keith Hall did his job and said AHCA would reduce the deficit. Tax cuts do pay for themselves by killing poor people.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2017 21:14
|
|
|
http://www.vox.com/2017/3/13/14907100/cbo-report-ahca-obamacare-replace-read Can read the CBO report in its entirety.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2017 21:18
|
|
|
They also weren't able to dynamically score it.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2017 21:23
|
|
|
CBO didn't project the new Medicare HI insolvency. Scalawags! Under ACA the Medicare HI trust fund is funded up to 2028. Was hoping to see what it would be with the repeal of the ACA taxes.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2017 21:42
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/SpeakerRyan/status/841388103529058304
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2017 21:47
|
|
|
Accretionist posted:That framing seems like a missed opportunity. There's no line item for Planned Parenthood, so how accurate is, "funding?" We know this, they know this, but all the pro-lifers see is "Planned Parenthood loses funding".
|
|
#
¿
Mar 13, 2017 22:37
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That is actually lower than the uninsured % was before Obamacare. Pre-ACA it hovered around 16%. Post-AHCA will be around 16%. Unless you've seen something I haven't seen.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 14, 2017 00:10
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Post-AHCA in 2025 it will be about 15.5%. It hovered around 16% pre-obamacare. Not to DnD you but what's your source? Was it in the CBO assessment? Bueno Papi fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Mar 14, 2017 |
|
#
¿
Mar 14, 2017 00:42
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:CBO estimate of 54 million uninsured in 2025. CBO cites the U.S. census estimate of a national population of 345.05 million in 2025. I guess the estimates percentage I've been seeing are people using different population estimates. I've seen 19% to 14%.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 14, 2017 01:17
|
|
|
clockworkjoe posted:what kind of reforms would step 2 entail? Have they given any hints at all? Nothing definitive but HHS and CMS have quite a bit of authority built into statute. Prime example is HHS qualifies what constitutes Essential Health Benefits within the confines of the ACA mandates. Take a look at below and imagine how much Trump/Price can screw it up. If AHCA doesn't pass, I imagine they will take to regulatory fuckery. I'd love to see the Trump administration get weighed down in years of lawsuits over it. https://www.cms.gov/cciio/resources/data-resources/ehb.html
|
|
#
¿
Mar 15, 2017 00:53
|
|
|
I take it back, the second step has already started. Price/Verma will allow medicaid expansion states to "experiment" in new ways with what's called a "Waiver" under ACA section 1115. Alabama has already started and now Price/Verma have said fullspeed ahead. This will happen regardless if AHCA fails to pass. Here's a good rundown on what to expect with republican states finding new ways to gently caress over the poor but still get medicaid matching dollars. http://kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/key-themes-in-section-1115-medicaid-expansion-waivers/ 
|
|
#
¿
Mar 15, 2017 03:36
|
|
|
JCT study says AHCA will deplete the Medicare Part A trustfund by 2025. A full three years earlier than ACA. http://kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/what-are-the-implications-for-medicare-of-the-american-health-care-act/ 
|
|
#
¿
Mar 16, 2017 05:28
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 13:36 |
|
|
Haven't been keeping up with the vote counts. Even if AHCA passes the house, do republicans have 50 in the senate? Or is the hope to just get it through the house and use the reconciliation committee to buy out the republican votes in the senate?
|
|
#
¿
Mar 21, 2017 21:57
|
|