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esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

nevermind

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esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Ze Pollack posted:

Genuinely interested in your thoughts on this one, because I keep trying to figure out who the hell this is supposed to appeal to and not succeeding.

The "murder the poor" provisions are insufficiently tough for the Tea Party caucus but sufficiently there to piss off the people who give a poo poo about them. Insurance companies are given a tax cut as apology for replacing the mandate with a sentence reading "young healthy people, if your insurance ever lapses, don't bother buying it back," which might be the worst imaginable answer.

It is proving a difficult intellectual exercise to find a part of this spacecraft that's good.

I'm with you in that I don't really "get" it - there doesn't seem to be any kind of cohesive thesis behind what it's supposed to do, unlike the ACA itself and prior republican replacement plans. It looks as if it was designed by elected officials who read a few white papers instead of a wide coalition of experts and lobbyists like literally every other piece of major legislation.

The lottery passage in particular stands out as something that looks like a no-name congressman demanded be included.

It doesn't really move towards the republican "vision" for health care and doesn't really fix anything.


One potential positive that I can see is the offering of subsidies to poor people in states that didn't expand medicaid (if I'm reading it correctly). Doubtful the numbers given will be enough to make insurance a viable choice for them though.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Lord Harbor posted:

Anyone have a clear answer for these?

- Regarding the 30% increase following a gap, there seems to be no accounting for different levels of coverage. So could you spend a year on the cheapest possible coverage to eat the extra cost, before switching up to the insurance you really want? This is mostly in regards to young people gambling on no insurance for a decade or two, because it looks like even the minor penalty is gonna be almost nothing in the end.

- Regarding the maximum tax credit, the wording is, "The monthly limitation amount with respect to any individual for any eligible coverage month during any taxable year is 1⁄12 of" whatever payment you get, maxing out at $4,000 for a 60-year old. Does this mean that if you have a single month of expense, you only get back $4,000/12 = $333? Or is the tax credit strictly for insurance coverage, and won't contribute at all to deductables or procedures?

1. Yes, nothing preventing you from buying up to a richer health plan when you get sick except for the one-per-year open enrollment period. Same as under the ACA.

2. The tax credit is specifically for insurance coverage and not point-of-care cost sharing. Any point-of-care cost-sharing credits from the ACA are repealed and not replaced.

For a rational health care consumer, 30% isn't that much. However, for many people the size is roughly comparable to the ACA individual penalty ($695 / 2.5% of income) for a few years . It's a motivator, similar to the individual mandate and inspired by the 1%/month/lifetime Medicare Part D "no coverage" penalty. Even though it's comparable in size to the ACA penalty, it definitely seems less useful from a behavioral economics standpoint (you are mandated to buy this or pay $1500 now vs. if you don't buy this you will eventually pay $1500 when you do buy it) and I'm skeptical.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:

Maryland totally does this, though. An appendectomy costs the exact same no matter where you get it done. So it's not impossible.

An all-payer system like that isn't exactly the same as no networks, and networks still exist in Maryland. Health plans can and do create networks (broad and narrow) to limit benefits to providers who are high quality, or to take into account a relationship with the providers (e.g. Kaiser).

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Amused to Death posted:

This seems like the exeception. No one i know truly knows what their current work health insurance costs. I asked when i found out mine, and i only did that by accident.

It's on the W-2 now (box 12 code DD) so you can find out if you want.

Jealous Cow posted:

I lost track of it, but does the AHCA still reduce the tax exemption for employee contributions like an earlier leaked version?

That would certainly educate people about healthcare costs.

No it doesn't. Other republican plans in the past few years did that, but those weren't really "leaked versions of this bill"

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

HappyHippo posted:

UHC countries tend to spend less on drugs, because larger purchasers can negotiate better prices.

UHC countries tend to spend much less on administrative overhead, because everyone being covered under the same system simplifies administration.

It's not the size that results in lower drug prices. ESI negotiates with the purchasing power of like 100 million members

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Boon posted:

It's a valid concern. CO taxpayers effectively subsidize everyone living within X miles of the border where X = someone's willingness to travel for cheap/free healthcare.

It's unsustainable both economically and politically and you'd be a fool not to realize it.

How so? The plan was supposed to be a system of insurance for CO residents only. Hospitals would still charge out-of-staters

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

call to action posted:

They're not dirty or even particularly poor, you loving idiot racist, but allowing people who've been abandoned by the US and other states to move to CO to have everything treated solely at CO expense doesn't make sense. There's a concept called insurance you may want to look up, particularly why the individual mandate was a part of Obamacare. Only national level UHC makes sense - if you don't agree, point to another country where some regions are UHC and others aren't.


Because there are people that we currently literally let die in gutters who would, I'm *guessing*, probably try to scrape together a few bucks to get a permanent CO address if it were a matter of life and death.

People who are dying in the gutters can already scrape together a few bucks to move to any state that offers them medicaid. If they aren't poor, then they can purchase private insurance coverage. This isn't a problem that is caused by Coloradocare, which is literally just another health insurance plan

esquilax fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Mar 21, 2017

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

call to action posted:

So are you aware who pays for the majority of Medicaid, versus who would pay for the majority of ColoradoCare? Because someone moving to take advantage of federal programs is different from someone moving to take advantage of state programs.

Not from the perspective of the individual who would be moving, all they see is dollars from state A and no dollars from state B. Do we see a large number of people moving between states to take advantage of the medicaid discrepancy? Doesn't seem like your projections line up with reality

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003


SHOP marketplace is not the same, it does the same thing but is on an individual employer basis. Multiple employer plans (which when several employers band together to provide a single plan) for health and retirement have been around like forever.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

hobbesmaster posted:

I guess that goes with the public's fundamental misunderstanding of insurance. The SHOP marketplace would be a larger group than any collection of small businesses so should be cheaper.

Not necessarily, since each individual purchaser is still relatively small. I don't see any major reason why premiums would be lower than in the individual market, and a few reasons that they might be higher due to better benefits.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

hobbesmaster posted:

I thought it operated the same way as the normal individual marketplace and prices were the same for everyone?

Employers in the SHOP market can (must?) curate the plans and offer only a few of them, which means that they are a target of anger and employee noise if they only offer ones with extremely narrow networks or scant benefits. Which likely means the plans chosen will have higher premiums, even if the apples-to-apples price for a comparable plan in the individual market is the same. Not sure if this is actually was has happened though.

A benefit of the SHOP marketplace is that it allows the employer to circumvent age discrimination rules and allow younger people to have lower premiums, which I suppose could actually result in more people enrolled and lower premiums than a normal group plan, but would not be different than the individual market.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

I'm pretty sure the authors just looked up the additional yearly cost of treatment for people with diagnoses under that, per year.

This is a fairly decent proxy for the additional premium for continuing chronic conditions, but don't try to put too much meaning behind the numbers (especially for the acute conditions, as those are generally not predictable in advance).

Ignore the actual numbers, the "so what" of the chart is that allowing insurance companies to charge a cost-neutral premium would lead to ridiculous outcomes for people who are sick.

esquilax fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Apr 20, 2017

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Medicare FFS denies just as many claims as other insurers, and I've never seen any evidence that shows insurers deny more claims when they have a profit motive (insured plans) versus when they don't have a profit motive (employer self-funded plans).

For some reason my google skills are failing to find an AMA Health Insurer Report Card that's more recent than 2012, but those tend to have good stats on claim denials

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Medicare and.medicaid have better and easier processes to contest care denials, though. Or at least they did in the past, they're kinda getting cut apart.

I thought I read somewhere that the ACA's external review process was working pretty well. If the new process has been shown to be insufficient or biased I'd definitely be interested in reading more.

Maybe that only applies to patients though, not sure about the initial process on the provider side.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

hobbesmaster posted:

I saw in the freeper thread that some of the anti abortion folk are saying this "defunded planned parenthood"? Is there any other source for that? And what mechanism did they use, because I'm pretty sure its not planned parenthood billing medicaid but whatever random independent contractor OB/GYN billing them, right?

It's section 103 of the bill. It prevents federal payments to states to cover medicaid payments to PP and it affects any "affiliates, subsidiaries, successors, or clinics of the entity".

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

hobbesmaster posted:

So its an illegal bill of attainder. Got it.

Of course not, it applies to any abortion-providing entity that gets over $350M in medicaid funds. It's just a coincidence that there only happens to be one of those

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Brookings did a study a couple of years ago and came to the conclusion that the higher rate Americans pay for healthcare boils down to three big things.

1) Private insurance
2) Higher compensation for pharmaceutical manufacturers, medical device manufacturers, and medical professionals (especially specialists)
3) Geographic and Lifestyle issues (the US is much less densely populated than every European country, 90% of Canada lives in about 10% of the land mass, high obesity rates, income inequality leads to a small subgroup of people that have tons of health needs that compound costs)

Private insurance was responsible for about 18% of the increased costs that Americans pay. Geographic and lifestyle issues were about 20%. Costs for medical professionals, pharma, and medical devices was close to 50%.

If the US wants to get per-capita medical spending down to Canadian levels, then they have to accept the fact that doctors are going to be compensated less, some people in the insurance and medical professions will lose their jobs, and that spending money to get the 10% of people that recieve 80% of the US healthcare spending early will save money in the long-run.

Those are all politically unpopular things to say and doctors have a very strong lobbying influence and enjoy a very high level of public trust, so it is difficult to get done. The insurance companies promote a ton of waste and perverse incentives, but they are not the primary drivers of cost compared to Canada/Europe.

Do you have a link to the study? Sounds neat

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Peven Stan posted:

The ACA was supposed to shift employer paid insurance gradually over time to the exchanges. Rahm Emanuels brother Ezekiel predicted by 2020 employer paid plans would be rare.

The botched rollout unfortunately damaged that prediction as well as not fixing the issues of narrow networks and high deductibles.

The employer mandate, the small group exchanges, and the significant penalties against health reimbursement arrangements directly opposed a shift away from employer insurance to individual market.

The overarching goal of the ACA was to fix the individual market, but the IRS and other executive departments spent a significant amount of time and regulatory effort making sure that it didn't cause everyone to be "dumped on the exchanges".

A movement from employer healthcare to individual healthcare was what McCain was touting on the 2008 campaign trail and what republican replacement plans in 2013-2016 were focused on, in opposition to Obama.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

The Phlegmatist posted:

It's a possibility. CBO was rushed last time and didn't really get to calculate the additional cost of subsidies paid by the federal government as part of the expenses of AHCA. Between insurers being able to charge you more based on your health status (i.e., the preexisting condition changes) and the government's reticence to actually pay for the high risk corridors, you'd see average premiums jump up substantially along with subsidies.


Using the same line of reasoning, subsidies could vanish entirely in states where EHBs were gutted. Plans are constrained only by actuarial value, i.e. the percentage amount that the insurer is expected to pay on the plan across their entire pool of insured for essential health benefits. So a (70% AV) silver plan that covers pretty much nothing could have a premium of $10/mo if the insurer was only projected to pay $7 per enrollee on average. And your subsidies are based on the second-cheapest silver plan available to you, so...

Actually I'm wondering now why nobody has brought this up before.


Two reasons.

1. In the AHCA, subsidies are decoupled from that "Second lowest cost silver plan" calculation
2. Under current regulations and professional actuarial guidelines at least, the calculation of the actuarial value depends on the benefits covered. If you don't cover hospitalization, e.g., the actuarial value would tank and it wouldn't be a silver plan any more.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

There is no actual consistent definition of single payer other than "what I imagine the mostest leftist health care is". People consistently call US Medicare single payer even though it is a system with multiple payers

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

You forgot the best parts - traditional medicare has no out-of-pocket maximum, and has a lifetime limit after which they will cut you off

This and the above is the reason why like 90% of traditional medicare enrollees have supplementary coverage.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

The Phlegmatist posted:

The PSA screen is just a blood test, so it's not harmful in and of itself.

What will happen though is that a patient will want to follow up a positive PSA screen with a prostate biopsy to actually check for the presence of cancer. 75% of the time it isn't actually a sign of prostate cancer, and prostate biopsies, like any invasive surgery, can sometimes cause infection. Sometimes swelling after surgery causes patients to require urethral catheterization as well, and that's a common source of UTIs which are no joke in older patients.

So from a patient perspective you'd always be concerned about the 25% it's actually cancer and can be caught early, but when you're setting public policy and care recommendations you have to take into account the risk of complications due to unnecessary biopsies, costs of routine screening, whether or not cheaper methods do the job just as well, etc.

This is the reason why a lot of preventive services have a minimum age before they are covered. Start too early and the true positive rate is so low that the financial and human cost of false positives is out of proportion to the benefits

There's like a whole political conversation about the age at which to begin mammogram screening

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Solkanar512 posted:

Is there an actual case study about this?

I just remember back when I was with my lovely food safety lab, we only had a few hundred employees and the company provided (lovely) healthcare plans. As long as the group at large could come to an agreement, you could throw in the BBQ joint next door, the coffee stand in their parking lot, the mechanics across the way and even the strip clubs down the street. As long as you aren't overloading the pool with some weird niche with high accident rates, you should never get any worse than the deal the lab alone had, but together the larger pool should have better stability and more leverage to improve prices and diversity of benefits. I get you would have to be choosy at first when the pool is smaller but over time even moderate to large companies could find themselves saving money by joining rather than sticking with their own plans and smaller pools, right?

Look, if I'm all wrong and this is dumb feel free to say so, but this really feels like something businesses can do right now without waiting for Congress to actually do something.


Ok, thanks for that clarification. Seems a little more odd this way, but if you can get enough people together I don't see a problem here either.

Instead of joining an association pool, moderate to large companies would generally choose to self insure to save on administrative costs and get the benefits of ERISA.

Unless, of course, they had very high claims costs. Then they might realize that they could get a better deal from joining an association, and mix in all of their bad risk with the rest of the association's good risk. This jacks up the rates.

Similarly, if a company has a lot of good risk, then they don't actually see a benefit to being a part of the association. They would make their own deal with an insurance company, leaving only the bad risk.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

FizFashizzle posted:

are you guys familiar with what's going on with mission healthcare in western NC and BCBS?

Has it been discussed in here?

There's a recent trend in provider/insurer agreements to tie prices to the value that the hospital provides to patients. This is generally called value based care or pay-for-performance, and gives providers "skin in the game" in regards to providing higher quality care to patients and reducing hospital readmittance.

BCBS NC wants to keep the reimbursement-per-service flat, with future increases being solely on pay-for-performance agreements. Mission wants inflationary increases, with pay-for-performance increases on top.

If they can't come to an agreement, there's a big PR hit in there for someone. They are both trying to sell their side to the public to deflect the potential PR blow and improve their negotiating position.


BCBS NC's position is more consistent with recent trends in insurer/provider arrangement, but attributing "fault" is not really helpful.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Dems learned from the losing end how an unworkable healthcare policy that only appeals to the base can be a powerful tool to win elections. Even if the wonks give it an honest try, the actual politicians might not see it as in-their-interest to put forward anything resembling good policy.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

evilweasel posted:

yes but republicans are learning that once you get into office you better deliver or there's going to be consequences

the point of having wonks put forward solutions while the politicians run on more generic stuff is that once they get into office, they crib from the wonks

republicans never had any intention on delivering on their plans of "replace" but democrats do actually want to improve health care

I agree, I just expect there to be a big pushback against it based on the reason I gave and all the ones that Yglesias identified in his article.

A lot of dems really are not going to like it when a pro-single payer organization comes out and says that they recommend a $15 trillion tax increase.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Medical fraud is like $100+ billion per year? Like literally everyone in the insurance industry cares about it a lot, and spends a significant amount of their own resources to stop it

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

The insurance industry cares about "medical fraud" because that's their pretext for denying care they don't want to pay for.

Actual criminal fraud is extremely rare. The supposedly common nature of medical fraud is a myth of the same kind as "welfare fraud."

https://www.justice.gov/criminal-fraud/health-care-fraud-unit

quote:

The Criminal Division plays a critical role in HEAT. The Criminal Division’s Fraud Section has 40 prosecutors assigned on health care fraud matters across the country. Most of these 40 prosecutors are assigned to the Medicare Fraud Strike Force (MFSF). Partnering with nine U.S. Attorney’s Offices, the MFSF has filed almost 1000 cases, charging over 2100 defendants who collectively billed the Medicare program more than $6.5 billion. Almost 1500 of these defendants pleaded guilty and 200 others were convicted in jury trials; over 1200 defendants were sentenced to imprisonment for an average term of approximately 48 months.

And that's just Medicare fraud that they could prove, for this one particular unit of the DOJ.

You're in conspiracy theory territory

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

No, that supports my point and is in line with what I expected.

Statistically speaking a few billion dollars a year is a relatively trivial part of the overall health care.industry, and a few thousand convictions are not a reason to implement capitation models that will ultimately deny care to many thousands of times that many people because the insurer's medical reviewer (usually an out of state doc who has never seen the patient) decides to overrule the treating physicians. I've heard those reviewers talk and I've seen the regulations and court rulings that (theoretically) justify those prior authorization procedures. They base it all on the rationale that it's necessary to prevent "fraud, waste, and abuse." It isn't, and to the extent it is, the criminal justice system should be handling it (as you just documented).

That's just the people that they caught and charged. The most conservative estimates I've seen put it at the dozens of billions per year, with most going $100+

It's extremely hard to catch, which is why preventative measures and proper incentives are more important than literal actual enforcement.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

hobbesmaster posted:

Who is defining what fraud is here though?

Illegally charged or obtained services, probably as determined by whoever does the study.

If you want an actual source, the Institute of Medicine (division of the National Academies of Sciences) estimated $75b in CY2009

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Negotiated pricing or price controls under Medicare / Medicaid could absolutely address that issue (by reducing the number of expensive treatments; I would argue that almost no medical treatment, procedure, or device is currently "fairly priced" in America). For example, (edit: most state Medicaid programs have) Medicaid currently has a preferred drug list, and it's no coincidence that the preferred drugs are cheaper than the non-preferred alternatives.

That's part of why Medicaid is so much more efficient than private insurance, and why simply moving everyone in the country onto Medicaid would do more to reduce wasteful spending than any other intervention you can come up with (including implementing any given proposed set of fraud prevention measures).

We don't need to reinvent the wheel here, we have an automobile already.

Private insurance already does both those things - negotiated pricing and preferred drug lists.

Medicaid programs also have significant utilization management and prior authorization programs, comparable to private insurance.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Peven Stan posted:

Private employer insurance is a clusterfuck if different payers setting different prices. I've been seeing the same allergist for 4 years while changing jobs enough that he's been paid through 3 different employer plans, at $78, $112, and finally now $153 a visit. How is that a reasonable or a functional insurance system?

The healthcare debate is too politicized to make payment reforms like that to improve the system. Leveling payments across payers is a wonkish solution that is hard to convey as "helps people" and doesn't energize anyone's base. Medicare and Medicaid pay different rates from each other and both cost shift significantly to private plans which adds to the problem.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Nevermind

esquilax fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Sep 29, 2017

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Lote posted:

Software already does automatic checks for medication interactions that are much more complex than this mistake. It would be trivial to implement a "Are you sure you want to give 38 times the normal dose?" Screen after a large medication order.

If this was IV Septra / Bactrim, this would have cleaned out the hospital stockpile. There should have also been a nurse asking a question of "Did the doctor really mean to give 38.5 pills of Septra? A medication I normally give 2 pills?"


The system should be designed where it's impossible to make a mistake. The famous case for implementing duty hours for residents in the USA was because of Libby Zion dying because she got phenelzine plus pethidine which has a severe interaction. Today, with EMR and electronic prescribing, most systems will have 1 or 2 screens that pop up that say "Are you sure you want to do this? There is a risk of XYZ due to a severe medication interaction." You will get a call from the pharmacist. Etc. etc. There are many less ergregious errors made all the time in dosing. 1.4 becomes 14 or off by a factor of 10. With an EMR, it should be trivial to install a check on doing this. Any excuse of "well, our patients are different," is bullshit because you should be having a discussion with the pharmacist instead of saying 'patient population' and calling it a day.

You should read the full 4 part article, all of these points are directly addressed and either happened or explained in detail why that line of thinking is disastrous.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Lote posted:

I understand the article. This is a case where the medication in question is a combo drug that comes written as double strength 1 pill instead of other medications. Pediatrics is also obsessed with weight based dosing even for medications that don't need to be dosed based off weight. This is primarily a systems design issue where there's a flaw in the system. The system should take into account mistakes possibly happening at every interaction, including during the additional steps to correct those mistakes.


That's as dangerous as a pilot skipping steps in a check list and can be considered fraud. There are prompts where you have to enter reasons for why you're ordering what you're ordering for example.

You apparently don't understand all four articles, because it explained very clearly that there was a warning, why they allowed the nurse to override the warning, why the nurse did override the warning, and why designing a system to account for mistakes happening at every interaction is often counterproductive (and is literally one of the main causes of this specific drug error).

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Magic Underwear posted:

The nurse ignored a warning? I thought it was the doctor. The nurse scanned each of the 39 pills and the computer said yep, feed all of these to the patient. She was only guilty of trusting the machine over common sense and not wanting to raise a fuss, something aviation CRM was invented to fix. The hospital industry should be stealing that methodology as well as the much better warning/caution/info methodology that planes use, to keep people informed of what's actually important and not bothering them with what isn't important.

Oops yes I meant the doctor.

It's a good case study in general, and shows a lot of actionable recommendations.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

The aarp plans are some of the most popular med supp, med c and med d plans.

Kind of a different animal than the pre65 market though

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

Flip Yr Wig posted:

I know this was pretty much the entire point of the last round of ACA litigation, but I won't lie and say I entirely understood the issue. To what extent are the CSRs statutorily required, and to what extent does the president have the discretion to fund them?

They are required by the text of the ACA but Congress did not appropriate funding for it.

Congress sued Obama to stop payment of the CSRs because of this issue

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esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

The Phlegmatist posted:

Nope, there's no mechanism for that in the law. So if you estimate your income at, say, 120% FPL and wind up making 70% FPL you are fine. There's no penalty for falling under the 100% FPL cutoff.

And also if you estimate your income at 120% FPL, get a silver CSR plan that's basically better than a platinum plan and make 300% FPL or something, you'll have to pay back some of the premium tax credits but there's no mechanism for paying back the fact that you were on a CSR plan when you shouldn't have been.

IANAL but I think the no drawbacks for overstating income is a regulatory thing which the IRS can change.

36b.f.2.B.i has no lower limit which implies that they can claw back up to $600 in subsidy from someone below the FPL.

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