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drat Prof, my life and your posting schedule move too fast for me to reread the whole thing. I did get through the first arc, and I can see reasonable and non-magical ways to commit the murders, but I can't point at one person and say "it could only be you!" At the end of the last thread, the possibility that all this is happening in Maria's head was being discussed. That felt wrong to me; if we're in somebody's imagination, it's Ange's. She's the one who would make up different scenarios about what happened. She's obsessed with Maria's diary and witches, so she could be the one who wrote an account and put it in a bottle, years after the events. Battler's motivation is being depicted as wanting to return to her, when it would be far more natural for him to want to save his own life, or those of his parents and cousins. And it explains why we spent all that time in a flash forward, seeing her life, which is pretty pointless otherwise.
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Mar 17, 2017 22:10
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Kinzo isn't anywhere either. And it's the first time the initial batch of murders have been spread out.
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Mar 18, 2017 04:55
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I think Kinzo had a portrait in these lists before, but that may have been before we had red text telling us he was gone.
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Mar 18, 2017 06:43
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SardonicTyrant posted:...uh...well, it's good to see Guest X is confirmed. This is a good point. Does red text, like "no more than 17 people," carry over from the previous game?
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Mar 18, 2017 22:07
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Yes, I think that entire conversation is in Natsuhi's imagination. And Krauss' business success is all in his head. Everybody is in their little fantasy land. I think this is also supposed to be a hint about how to treat conversations that we know couldn't have happened: they're in somebody's head. I also assume that, even though there isn't a date, this happened a ways back.
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Mar 21, 2017 17:22
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Well, well, well. Of the people we know, the only male the right age would be Battler, unless you want to add some years to Kanon (or subtract them from George, I suppose). Jessica is the right age, too, of course, but is openly Natsuhi's daughter. Shannon is both the wrong gender and the wrong age. Battler is looking rather suspicious right now, with the previous revelation that he was wrong about who his mother is. In the first game, when we first meet everybody, they're all saying "Battler, is that really you?" So... maybe it isn't. There are serious problems with that theory, of course. The Battler we've been following around remembers past times at the mansion and playing with his cousins, so if he's an imposter you'd have to explain that. The caller says Natsuhi is his mother, and doesn't seem at all uncertain about it. She would have had a heck of a time hiding a pregnancy, especially as she also had to give birth to Jessica at almost the same time. No doubt Kinzo would have wanted a male heir, so she (and her husband) wouldn't have any motivation for trying to swap a boy for Jessica. So "mother" would have to be not literal, but figurative or even sarcastic. We know there's a gap in the family tree: Kyrie's and Rudolf's child, who was supposed to have died. Could such a child have a reason to sarcastically call Natsuhi "mother?" It's hard to see; perhaps if she had forced, or tried to force, an abortion. Shannon or Kanon fit such a child better: an illegitimate child given to the family supported orphanage - but then we don't have a connection to Natsuhi. Could the caller be Kanon? Again, seems unlikely. We know he's on the island, and you'd have to think Natsuhi and Genji know his voice well. His real name and parentage are unknown, and we've had our attention called to that, which makes him a good surprise heir, but this would be an odd way to introduce that twist. But, I don't like the idea of a new character either. Introducing a critical character very late is a bad mystery trick (so much so, I think it breaks one of Knox's rules). It's possible this isn't a real person, but somebody who knows a secret and is using a false voice to hide their identity. In which case it could be... anybody? Too many to try to narrow down, at least. Jumping topics, has Jessica really lived on an island with her dead grandfather for more than a year and not figured things out? She doesn't seem tight lipped enough to stay silent about a conspiracy for that long. Of course, Kumasawa complained about not getting an audience with Kizno any more, and if anybody was going to sniff his death out, it would have to be her. One problem I have is spotting something like this and thinking "Oh, the authored made a mistake," and then finding out that it was supposed to be a clue.
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Mar 24, 2017 21:23
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To go along with the crowd, while I don't think Shannon and Kanon are the same person, the wording for the number of people is twisted awkwardly to keep from giving a precise count, so there almost has to be some trick going on. Maybe Kawasuma is a hologram - that's why she never does any actual work.
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Mar 25, 2017 23:31
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My actual crazy theory is that Beatrice is Battler's mother. There's really no evidence for it, but it's the biggest plot twist I can think of, and Battler's unknown mother lays the groundwork for it. Rudolf can still be the father, since we keep getting reminded how much he used to chase everything hot and hollow. From Rosa's story, it's hard to picture the very sheltered girl in the hidden mansion as a mother, but the dates and biology are at least possible. It would also explain why Beato said Battler had sinned against her by leaving the family when his (fake) mother died.
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Mar 26, 2017 06:15
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Nicely done. The story even told us that Kinzo demanded that the chapel must be kept in top condition, despite never being used (as a chapel). From Eva's thoughts during her riddle solution, I assumed it would be some sort of Japanese word puzzle. Since I suck at those in English, I didn't think I had a chance, though I did play around with Kumasawa having river in her name. I tried thinking of something involving people and relationships and got nowhere.
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Mar 27, 2017 02:58
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I was guessing the "gouge the X and kill" statements meant to remove certain strokes from a character. But I don't know anything about Japanese.Eleanore posted:1st game: Shannon, Gohda, Krauss, Rosa, Kyrie, Rudolf Seeing them all together like that: 1st game: all of Kinzo's heirs aside from Eva 2nd game: all of Kinzo's heirs aside from Rosa 3rd game: Kinzo (not really) and all of the servants, who are loyal to him 4th game: all of Kinzo's heirs aside from Krauss I guess Rudolf is the only one too nice to murder everybody for the inheritance. Or maybe he wanted to start with the servants.
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Mar 27, 2017 20:52
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Yea, Battler hasn't been stupid, but he has been very emotional. Trying to find a way that nobody he knows has committed a murder, for instance.
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Mar 28, 2017 04:18
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drat it, why does real life keep getting in the way? It's 1:00 am and I'm on pain pills, so everything will probably be nonsense. This is the first time the story has brought up motive, isn't it? And we're told we need to look deep; it's not something simple like a psycho or the gold. But I'm thinking that this is like figuring out a magic trick - look at what the magician isn't drawing your attention to. No matter what the motive, there has to be a piece on the board doing things. Much like Ericka had to be placed to have a detective. What piece carried out the murders? In one of the games, Eva walks away the only survivor, and inherits everything. But in the others, everybody dies. Which, I suppose, points back to motive: why commit a bunch of murders that then include yourself? Kinzo, I could have seen doing it, but he's very dead. Hmm, did the Beatrice portrait really go up while he was alive? Genji said it was in April of the year before last. Since the family meeting that year was apparently unremarkable, Kinzo must have been there. Though he might have had his warning from Nanjo and prepared something. And Genji might be crazy enough to carry out posthumous orders - he's just furniture. Oh, and on the "X=0, Y=0, X+Y>0" wasn't Maria the witch who could "find a 1 floating in a sea of 0?" And I'm still freaked by her black king hat. But I can't see her carrying out the murders. She's just too young. Maybe it's supposed to means she can come up with answers? I've been assuming that our red statements, about the number of people on the island, count all the servants as human. If they don't, we've got lots of extra slots for, I suppose, goat-kun and demons. Battler surviving never was a surprise because he's (usually) been our point of view, and you don't expect that character to die. And his name sounds like he's been put in the story just so there's somebody to fight. But if he's being kept alive until the end, then Beato wants something from him, something more important than gold or lives. Something very emotional, and probably irrational (as viewed from the outside). She wants him to find her human piece, I would guess. If you follow "demons = furniture = Kinzo's servants" then it's either Shannon or Kanon (the others are accounted for) and Gapp would be the other. I suppose that's possible, but it doesn't feel right. The best line of attack I can see rests on three things: who is Battler's mother? Who called Natsuhi? And what are the murders trying to accomplish? Maybe I should add "how did Battler sin six years ago?" I've been assuming it was by denying the family, walking away from them. His father, at the very least, should be angry. The call to Natsuhi would fit great if she were the detective and the caller was Beatrice. I still like Beatrice as Battler's mother, because it clicks some pieces into place, but it doesn't solve everything. I proposed before that we're seeing different versions of Ange's head canon for what happened. She could see Battler leaving her and her family as a sin. There's only the tiny detail that she wasn't born yet. Edit: And Prof posts again. Don't you ever sleep? If you flipped the genders, I'd be sure this is Natsuhi's illegitimate child, but it's awfully hard for a woman to hide a pregnancy. More likely she'd pass it off as Krauss'. For guys with no mother, we have Battler and Kanon. The ages line up close enough. If you'll take a female caller, Shannon also lacks parents. Maybe Krauss had an illegitimate child and wanted to bring it into the family? Or he was looking at adopting to get an heir? That could work, and provide a very bitter murderer, who works as a servant instead of being rich. But then why drag in Battler? The voice on the phone doesn't have to be connected with the murders, but that's hard to swallow. Maybe Krauss wanted to adopt not a random kid, but Rudolf and Kyrie's first child (who, in this version didn't die being born). Natsuhi blocks that, and the child goes to the orphanage, then later comes back as a servant using the name Shannon or Kanon. Eh, still doesn't work. The kid should be upset with Kyrie, not Natsuhi. And Natsuhi seems to have figured out who it is, and it seriously scares her, but she thinks they're off the island, not downstairs in the servants' room. All right, I confess. It was me. I called Natsuhi and killed everybody. BurningStone fucked around with this message at 11:20 on Mar 30, 2017 |
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Mar 30, 2017 10:51
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Hey, a fellow Nero Wolfe fan! I thought we were all gone, though I understand the books were very popular when they were released. Someday I'll find somebody outside my family who's read van Gulik's Judge Dee books. My mother has always been a big mystery fan, particularly Christie, so I was reading them as soon as I was old enough to reach them on the shelves. Locked rooms used to be very popular, which makes this story feel a little old fashioned to me, even if how the rooms got locked has faded into the background for now.
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Mar 31, 2017 03:26
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The best thing about them is seeing a very different take on the detective novel. The earlier ones in particular; the very first one he translated rather than wrote. One warning: he was also a collector of Chinese pornography. I don't recall any explicit sex scenes, but there's always at least one naked girl (he did Chinese style drawing too).
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Mar 31, 2017 05:58
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^^^ What he said. If the baby didn't die, and ended up a servant instead of heir, that's plenty of motivation. I'd bet on it being Kanon, since he's male, to match the voice and Kinzo's presumed preferred heir. He's also got a clear streak of bitterness running through him. It also seems pretty clear that Kyrie is Battler's mother. Her family are supposed to be aristocrats; can you imagine their reaction to a child born outside of marriage? A quick adoption into the father's family would be a relief. The new characters are turning out to be worse than Beatrice was, which isn't easy. I can't believe I want Battler and Beatrice to combine against them. This story is really more of a thriller than a mystery, isn't it? Lots of cliffhangers and dramatic revelations, along with a lot of mysteries instead of one central one. Prof, I had surgery myself on Tuesday, and I'm also looped on pain killers. It's hard but I've learned you can't push yourself; get healthy instead.
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Apr 1, 2017 16:41
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CottonWolf posted:I'm not sure that fits with what we know about Beatrice's motivation. If it's about being denied their place in the family or the headship, that doesn't seem to gel with explicitly being about making Battler see something. This has to be to do with something that happened the last time Battler was at the family conference, and I can't see how that relates. Sorry, I was unclear (I'll blame the Oxycodone). This would be a motivation for Natsuhi's caller, not Beatrice. But the idea that there was no caller, only Natsuhi's imagination and guilt, makes sense too. As we learn more about her, she's not looking any too stable herself. The best counter I can offer is the subtitle: Without Love it Can Not Be Seen. All the fantasies (that we're sure are fantasies) have been somebody imagining something they want, not something they fear. CottonWolf raises another possibility: the baby is Beatrice, in the sense of a murderer lurking around the island. As usual, to get any additional person there's going to be some weaseling around the red text, but that condition was stated so oddly I bet there is a way.
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Apr 1, 2017 20:34
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ProfessorProf posted:woooo, oxycodone buddies I'd fist bump you, but I'd probably miss.
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Apr 1, 2017 21:18
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What a strange update. So many differences from what we've been seeing that I don't know where to start. I guess it's mostly the tone of the update? Before it felt like the mystical realm was observing, with the "pieces" acting in ways that weren't too strange for people to do. Even if Beatrice claimed she was moving them, we at least didn't see it. Now have witches self-inserting, shouting red text at people, kidnapping, and making phone calls? It's fan fiction gone mad. I've noticed that the first batch of killings has always been targeted at taking out a particular group, except for one member. Mostly, all but one of Kinzo's children die (making the survivor a wonderful suspect). In, I think, the third arc, it was the servants who were wiped out. Now we've lost the cousins, again all but one. It's also the first time where the murders were in more than one place. We also have the demon stakes running around again. What? Why? Since they talk with Natsuhi, under the rules that seemed to be formed, she would be the one imagining them. But where did that come from? And what's more, the stakes have no idea what's going on either. Before they were always on the inside. Was "Beatrice" behind the first four arcs, but not involved in this one? Now I want Gohda to make me an omelet.
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Apr 3, 2017 00:44
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Cyouni posted:From the sample we got at the beginning, Hideyoshi gets backstabbed with a stake at some point after this. I was wondering what was up with his different method of death, but a different time of death certainly explains that. A stake, huh. Interesting, since the stake girls had no idea what was going on. And they appeared to be working for Natsuhi.....
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Apr 3, 2017 05:50
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Did Knox give a rule about throttling the detective when they treat the death of your friends and family as light entertainment? I guess the tape is her version of a police line: I've sealed this and nobody else is allowed in. Despite it's past title, "And Then There Were None" is very good. I read it on a plane, and wasn't finished when we landed. Rather than drive home, I sat down in the airport until I was done. I understand that ice staking is actually really popular in Japan. Maybe Rudolf used to put on a sparkly shirt and go twirling under the lights. Cyouni posted:Beato has nothing to gain from having someone solve the epitaph. I don't want to drop the discussion of Beato's motive for the murders, but drat, that's a tough block of red. Is there some weasel room by saying Beato isn't Beatrice? I hope that isn't it. Spin the board, as Kyrie would say. Why write the epitaph? Kinzo (or maybe his ghost) said it was because if he took more risks, by making possible to lose the gold, magic could give him more gain. I also feel it's him saying to the rest of his family "Prove you aren't worthless and you can have my money and position." If that's the case, then the strange thing is that the epitaph ever becomes a murder plan. And it hasn't been followed all that well, really. We've never had only 13 people die, the "next twilight" comes whenever the killer feels like it, and the gouging is sometimes skipped. So why follow that? Maybe to draw attention to the epitaph? The red says Beato has nothing to gain by it being solved, but, yea, I also wonder how literally we should take "gain." Financially? Emotionally? Being allowed to die? In anything translated I get nervous about trying to push the wording too hard. Concepts don't always neatly map from one language to another. What did Beato say? That she didn't exist six years ago, even though she's 1000 years old?
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Apr 5, 2017 00:52
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Bravely ignoring that update to try and focus:Cyouni posted:Six years ago, no person called BEATRICE existed for me. So, two big puzzles that probably can't be solved independently: what's up with the two Battlers and what is Beatrice doing. Skipping the double Battlers (his father said he wanted to talk about his parents, so maybe we'll get some more information soon), what about the sin? In the first line, BEATRICE in all caps means the witch, which means the human version is talking. Who's that human? No, instead, how do you create a witch? It seems to be, with Maria and Ange as guides, by having a girl so unhappy she wants to escape to a fantasy land. Note the "girl;" we haven't seen a male witch, not even Kinzo, who was both occult obsessed and none too sane. There was talk of "Goldsmith," who we never saw. I'm not sure if it was a witch who splits off, or more of a nickname. Trying to narrow down the possibilities leaves a depressingly long list. It had to be somebody who was around six years ago, to be sinned against, and still around now, to kill people. It needs to always be the same person (maybe not, but this is hard enough). Gohda and Kanon weren't around six years ago (I'm trying to keep it simple, so ignore the "Kanon is family" speculation). Kinzo is dead now. Maria was only three, and has a different witch. Eva had a different witch too. This isn't going to work; there are too many possibilities. It could be Shannon, or Jessica, or Kyrie, or even Rudolf! I'm going to jump to the top suspect, based on what's going on in this update: Natsuhi. She's having conversations with Beatrice, who Kinzo told her about, but she also has all the furniture running around: stakes, Gaap, and Ronove. She seems to feel trapped and at the end of her rope. However, I have no idea what the sin could be.
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Apr 5, 2017 14:47
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I've speculated along exactly those lines earlier. It fits what we know, makes sense, and I don't like it. It feels too weak to me. I don't see a motive for slaughtering everybody in there. That's why I went back to the red about what Beatrice has to gain.
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Apr 5, 2017 17:56
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It occurred to me that even if a male can be a witch, he presumably gets a male witch, so Beatrice would be coming from a female. (Things are complicated enough without trying to figure out everybody's gender identity, so I pretend that isn't a concern. Watch, now we'll find out Hideyoshi always wanted to be a girl)Cyouni posted:My logic is based on not-red, so should be immediately taken with a grain of salt, but Beato's words about how the true Battler would not have committed a sin still feel like the best starting point. According to that, the sin was created because of the six-year gap. The contrapositive states "If Battler had not left for six years, there would be no sin". Battler failed to fulfill something within that time period, and that's his sin. While I said I didn't know what Battler's sin was, I realize it pretty much has to be turning his back on the family. It's the only thing we know he did six years ago and, let's face it, he was eleven years old. It just doesn't seem like enough to trigger a bloodbath six years later. On the two Battlers: we have red that Battler was a child of Asumu, but our Battler isn't. So our Battler isn't the first one, even though he seems to genuinely think he is. Maybe he's Beatrice's child? Would that make the sin big enough? Maybe if she's Kyrie: her natural son, secretly taken away, returns as her stepson - and he'd rather leave a wealthy family to live with commoners rather than to accept her. Unfortunately for this theory, Battler and Kyrie seem to get along great, if not exactly like a traditional mother and son. Any other candidates? Natsuhi would've murdered to keep a baby at that point, and her pregnancy with Jessica probably overlaps some. Eva also would have been delighted to have a second child. Rosa may have been too young and doesn't want the one child she does have. If I've got the dates right, the "Beatrice" she met in the hidden mansion actually died a couple of years before Battler was born. Kumasawa? If she's over 70 now, she was over 50 then, which is biologically possible, but a very long shot. And we're told that she has a bunch of sons, so why make a fuss over one more? If not a son, perhaps some other connection? A sister? A lover, as much as you can be a lover at that age? No, I'm a idiot. If somebody is unhappy enough to create a witch, what they want is escape, or protection, or whatever it takes to drag them out of the hole they're stuck in. Then the sin is not being around for six years, six long and painful years for Beatrice. I don't know anybody who's in bad enough shape to kill over that, but Natsuhi and Rosa both seemed fairly normal before we got to know them better. If this is the theory, then it's Jessica or Shannon. Natsuhi and Rosa, for example, are unhappy, but they wouldn't be counting on Battler to fix that. Unfortunately, current facts get in the way of the theory. Shannon has George now; either that's entirely a fake or she doesn't need saving any more. Jessica I just can't see. That's a dangerous statement when every character has changed as we've learned more about them, but she doesn't seem desperate enough. I know I called Natsuhi the prime suspect in just my last post, but she's worried about supporting her husband and father in law (and they need a lot of support, what with one being dead and the other being incompetent). Arc 5 has been mostly from her point of view, and she never even thinks about Battler. I'm trying to figure out where we could attach Battler to the family tree that would cause such strong feelings. Maybe as an illegitimate child by Kinzo and Beatrice-his-lover (we have too many Beatrices around here). If Rosa was wrong and the girl in the mansion didn't die, but was still there, wishing she could seen her son... that's the sort of motivation I could see working. Too bad all our evidence runs against this. It's probably worth noting that Battler has been living with his "mother's" family, so whatever the secret is about his identity, they apparently don't know it. Or they're nice people looking after their adopted grandson; I'm just suspicious because actual nice people are so rare in this story.
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Apr 5, 2017 22:01
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Cyouni posted:So the two hints given are here: "It's something related to Rokkenjima, the main residence of the Ushiromiya Head Family." and "In the world that you are, it was as though I didn't exist." In the first arc, Battler had to be introduced to Kanon and Gohda, because they weren't around six years ago. But Kanon is quietly furious with the world, and a prime candidate to grab a knife and start leaping about. He's also very protective of Shannon, which fits well. But does it really seem like he's spent years resenting Battler for not being around for Shannon, then when he shows up starts killing everybody else? Hmm. Viewed like that, Battler's return triggers the murders. Why? It's not hate of Battler, or why kill everybody? Plus, we have the red text that the murders aren't revenge. It seems to be, well, a cry for attention. And attention to the epitaph. Beatrice must want the epitaph solved, and is drawing attention to it with murders and saying "solve this or more people die." Which makes me think Beatrice is in the Golden Land, or wants Battler to visit the Golden Land. I really like the idea of Beatrice living in the hidden mansion, trying to get her son to come visit her. Except he solved the puzzle this arc, and nothing came of it. alcharagia posted:Congratulations, you've uncovered the one Fragment where Maria and Rosa's relationship is even worse. 
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Apr 6, 2017 00:19
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The simplest way I can think of to keep Kinzo "alive" is to say Natsuhi was lying, but because she's trying to hide that Kinzo disappeared, say, the day before the conference, not because he died. That way a lot of past suspicious behavior gets explained as well. I don't think outright supernatural powers have been tried ("he teleported himself to another dimension") but I assume Knox would just shoot that down as well. What are the other popular ways of breaking locked rooms? Claim that he went out the window when Rudolf turned to open the door? Claim that the window wasn't really locked, just stuck/taped and Rudolf mistook it for locked? Claim Kinzo came out from hiding and went out the door while all of them were looking around the apartment? This is making me wonder where the body is. Or maybe in this timeline it was cremated long ago?
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Apr 6, 2017 20:44
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Wow, for all the scorn "small bombs" got, these characters are happy to throw out equally unlikely possibilities. I'll steal peas'* summary, changing some of the red slightly to more closely match the exact wording (but after reviewing them I don't think it matters). We can simplify a little. The knock is harder than the letter, so forget the letter. A number of the statements are redundant as well. idonotlikepeas posted:1. Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa went to the Guesthouse before the conference. Red 14 would seem to rule out any type of device, unless you want somebody to have cut off Kinzo's hand and use it to build an automatic knocking machine that pops out at midnight. Assuming "influence" includes direct, indirect, coincidental, accidental, etc, etc, then red 13 and 9 rule out all people (I guess witches aren't people, though I'd bet most native English speakers would say a witch is a "person" but maybe not a "human.") The only attacks I see are peas' suggestion of a lie in the evidence, or attacking the "midnight" statements. If you read the original story again, the knock came just a little before the clock struck midnight, and the door wasn't opened until a bit after midnight (the knock happens, people react, the tone happens, then they discuss who it could be). Maybe my cut down summary isn't good enough, if you want to attack the exact wording of each red statement. I'll note that Natsuhi's caller produces much the same problems, because of red 13. The caller was on the line when everybody inside the mansion was grouped together, and now we're told it couldn't be anybody from the outside. The only holes I see there are for Genji himself to be the caller (he's inside the mansion and alone when he answers the phone), or an extra person hiding in the mansion, since we don't have red 9's sweep to include people who sneak in. Hmm, that dining room should have multiple doors, even though the discussion is all about one door. There may be a loophole there. * Your very user names say you don't like peas, and I call you peas. My apologies.
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Apr 10, 2017 22:17
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Tender Child Loins posted:I agree with resurgam. None of that poo poo even happened: note that Lambda weasels around stating the fact of the knock itself in red. But there are no mysteries, in the sense of a puzzle that the reader is supposed to solve. I have more than a little sympathy for your position, because the author sure doesn't care to make things clear, but I think he means for some bits to follow logic.
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Apr 10, 2017 23:29
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If the clock was off, even by a few minutes, it would break a lot of red. I don't like that because I don't know why a human would care about fooling people about the time the letter arrived.
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Apr 11, 2017 01:32
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Ok, big change here. For the first time the game now cares about who. Up until now all the mysteries were about what was possible, but the finger never got pointed at anybody. And this episode we have Shannon accused by Natsuhi, and Natsuhi framed for Hideyoshi's murder. For all the trickery we've seen, nobody was ever framed before. Shannon's accusation here means she's almost certainly innocent - the first suspect is never the real suspect. Unless the author is deliberately playing against that trope, of course. As was pointed out when it happened, there are only four seasons. It's easy to hide four pieces of paper in a room and then, when the target reveals the answer, direct them to the right paper. Something I missed before: Natsuhi's caller was "created by Lambdadelta." Does that mean he doesn't really exist and is just noise in the story? Ericka was dropped on the board, as it were, for this game, and she clearly has a special status, crossing over between the human and witch worlds. Presumably the caller is the same way? At the least, I have to think it's a strong suggestion that the caller isn't a character we've had all along. He could also be immune to the "no person" red text. By the way, has anybody speculated on the name Lamdbadelta? I'm sure if I start googling I'll be spoiled instantly. The delta symbol is usually used as change or difference, while lambda gets used for, well, too many things. Any ideas?
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Apr 11, 2017 17:05
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We've also been told he's going to be killed by a silver stake in the back. Makes anything but a planned murder hard to believe.
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Apr 11, 2017 20:34
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I'm a little bothered that nobody seems to have noticed Krauss has been missing for what, most of a day now? While other people are turning up dead? The Divine Comedy was a long time ago for me, but wasn't Beatrice a guide, not a goal? Wasn't it Laura that Dante was always mooning over?
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Apr 13, 2017 06:36
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No more murders this time? I suppose Bern/Ericka has said they don't need any more evidence, so any other actions on the game board are irrelevant. It's nice to finally see somebody in the story actually attempt to solve the murders, though I'm sure the results will be "inconclusive - do it again."
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Apr 14, 2017 03:38
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For me, the biggest hole is the entire goal: showing Natsuhi is the only one lacking an alibi isn't the same as showing she committed the murders. Certainly you'd never get away with that in a real murder trial. The existence of other, unnamed, people hasn't been said in red for this game, has it? Kinzo and Krauss are missing somewhere. Even if we get red that Kinzo is gone, can you really say the case is solved, but we have no idea what happened to Krauss? It seems strange that we've had all these locked room puzzles, where chaining and locking a door isn't good enough, but putting a piece of paper in the jam is plenty good enough. It's backed up by red, so I guess we just have to roll with it, but it feels really strange. It's like the author wants to isolate one of the "how," "who," and "why" questions at a time and pretend the others don't exist. Of course, it doesn't work that way, and I trust we'll get them wrapped together at some point.
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Apr 15, 2017 02:06
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tiistai posted:It was confirmed right after Erika showed up that the number of the people on the island is only increased by one and that otherwise it's the same as ever. If you start supposing Culprit X here then you have to explain why it works for every episode. Also, the trial is far from over, don't worry about Kinzo and Krauss until they've been addressed. Kinda silly to return to this after another update, but it's been pointed out before that the red text about who's on the island is always worded very suspiciously. And we were just supposed to see that there's no red stopping Kinzo from being out wandering the island. You say we'll get there, so ok, we'll get there, but that checklist which is supposed to prove Natsuhi is guilty? It's so clearly wrong nobody should accept it for a minute. You've hit on why I don't like Erika (besides being a horrible person). Before we've had the meta/discussion world and the real world and they were kept sealed from each other. We've been repeatedly reminded that "piece" Battler isn't the same as "meta" Battler. The actions taken by the real world characters have been reasonable for real world people. While we see many supernatural things happening in the real world, they're always debated, we're always asked "Did it happen that way?" The real story has to feel real, or the mystery breaks down into mush (as a number of people in this thread have complained). And now Erika is running around the real world doing utterly bizarre things that nobody would ever do - and to absolutely no point. None of her actions matter, because it's only the red text that matters. If you want to solve the mystery/show Natsuhi's innocence, you look at the red text and completely ignore Erika. I have to say, five arcs in, I can see that all that's going on is just a show to get Battler's attention. Beatrice is trying to get him to realize something, and I'm damned if I know what it is. We can guess, of course, and I have, but it's all pure speculation. Sooner or later this story is going to shift back to six years ago, right? BurningStone fucked around with this message at 07:55 on Apr 16, 2017 |
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Apr 16, 2017 07:51
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Meh. It depends. 24 and 16 sounds bad, but 35 and 27 doesn't, and 84 and 76 isn't even noticeable. Both my sets of grandparents had 15 years between them. That's a gap. The most interesting thing in that update is Beatrice hinting at a motivation: 
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Apr 16, 2017 22:41
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Amidiri posted:Erika/Bern are kind of frustrating characters to deal with. It's obnoxious to have theories shot down with just 'nah' 'why not' 'cuz nah'. Like I understand that's the point, but it's still very unpleasant to read? Thank you. This is exactly how I feel and I couldn't find the words for it. It's worse in the LP format, where you get to linger over the updates, than when you can just go to the next page. Theories not shot down: the sealed doors were opened by having their hinges removed. George is the culprit: he killed Krauss and made Krauss' body look like him. That second one is based on obviously weasely red text that all bodies were from people on the island - not the simpler statement that all bodies were who they appeared to be. I suspect this arc is mainly to show how unreliable red text is, even if it's always true? So we're prepared to start shooting gaps in it? The US courtroom makes you swear to tell "the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth." Red text is only the first of those.
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Apr 19, 2017 03:53
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Yea, Battler's used red before, and failed when he tried to make a false statement (about who his mother was). It's just not allowed by the current GM because she has more fun this way. Really, the whole trial is much the same as witch Eva finding new ways to kill people, over and over and over. Witches are bored, powerful, and sadistic. Battler said one thing that caught my eye: that he had to win or Aunt Eva's murderous ways would go unchecked (phone post, so I'm paraphrasing). Unless Battler just toId us the culprit, I suppose he means her actions after being the only survivor. But I thought that was only in the third game. It also raises the question: we know the situation at the start of the game is always the same, but we do we know if it's always the same after? I thought it wasn't; Bern plucked Ange from the timeline after game three, warning her that changing the board would erase the timeline she was from.
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Apr 19, 2017 07:10
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First we had Rosa reveal she saw a person fall down a cliff and die. Now we have Natsuhi push two people down a cliff and maybe die. Ushiromiyas have the worst hobbies. So, speculation! Either the baby died or it didn't. If it died, the person on the phone knows about it, despite the cover up. How good would such a cover up be? You'd have to think a new baby would excite comment, and servants, even if told to forget it, must have gossiped privately afterwards, especially after the death of one of their own. It was a long time ago, but some of the servants have been around that long. We're directly told Kawasuma was, for one (you know, she probably could solve all the mysteries) and we've seen she likes to talk. So, somebody modern obtaining the information to make that call isn't very hard. Who would make it? Somebody who doesn't like Natsuhi, of course. Eva would be delighted to set it up and torment her. So this is possible, though it doesn't seem all that great to me. If the baby didn't die, then the cover up included lying to Natsuhi. No problem for Kinzo, especially if he suspected the accident was no accident. But it also means that Kinzo took the fall as reason to give up his plan to raise the baby as his heir, and it's hard to see iron willed Kinzo giving up on something so easily. Let that go for now. If the baby lived, and matters for the story, they're somebody in our cast. Based on age being close enough to fake, it could be Battler, Jessica, or maybe Shannon or Kanon, though you have to really twist the ages of the two servants; people change a lot, if unpredictably, between 16 and 19. Could it be Jessica? Seems unlikely, as we have Natsuhi's private thoughts that she was pregnant with Jessica shortly afterwards, and why would she lie to herself? Well, she also has conversations with witches, so maybe she does. Maybe the baby lived, Natsuhi was forced to accept it, and she's living in a fantasy land where she gave birth. But now the caller has no reason to call - Jessica is treated as her child and the family heir. We're left with no caller motivation and Jessica living with a fake age for no reason. Could it be Shannon or Kanon? Again, moving the age by that much is shaky, but it might be possible. Then after the fall Kinzo gives up on this scheme and tells somebody to take the baby away. They take it to the orphanage the family supports (do we know when the family started supporting that orphanage?). It then grows up as a normal boy/girl and get assigned as a servant back to the house. At some point they find out they could have been the heir. This is the scenario that gives the caller the best motivation, but the early part is shaky. Why tell Natsuhi the baby is dead? Why does Kinzo give up his plan? Surely not because he was traumatized by the death of a servant. There's also no reason to have them pretending to be three years younger than they really are. Could it be Battler? Yea, here's the can of worms. The age is off, but by less than the age is off for the other candidates. We've been speculating, to the point that it's more or less assumed, that Battler is Kyrie's child. In that case, Kinzo didn't get some random baby, he got his illegitimate grandchild and told Natsuhi to raise it has her own. This makes a lot more sense than the other scenarios. When the fall happens, Kinzo gives up on his plan, suspecting Natsuhi and not willing to give her a second chance at his grandchild. Now, if Battler is the baby, could he be behind the calls? Normally I'd be reluctant to even consider this, but as Prof pointed out, we don't have Knox's viewpoint rule. And for this arc in particular, meta Battler showed up late and hasn't been controlling his own piece, doesn't even know what it's been doing. If he had been in control, he's not the heir now. This could explain why the calls only happen in this arc. Somebody with more knowledge of the past than Battler now controls his piece and is making it do things he didn't. The Battler we know wouldn't make the calls, but the Battler piece under a witch's control would, especially as this was the torture Natsuhi episode. No matter what the outcome, Kinzo's behavior needs some explaining. He had George as an heir already. Was five year old George showing some problem that had to have him replaced? Was one grandchild not enough? Did the heir have to come from Krauss' line? Or, and this is the reason I like the Battler theory, was the grandchild really his and needed a place to be raised? That makes a lot more sense to me than the alternatives. If baby-is-Battler is correct, then his early life was convoluted. First, he's born Rudolf and Kyrie's illegitimate child (under a different name). Kinzo takes him and gives him to Natsuhi, telling her to raise him as her own, effectively legitimizing him. That lasts for all of one morning. After the servant dies, Kinzo suspects Natsuhi is behind the accident, has her told the baby was dead, and spirits him away to somewhere unknown. Let's say the orphanage or the secret mansion. Then Rudolf's and Asumu's child, named Battler on the birth certificate, dies. Kinzo sees another way to get the illegitimate heir involved, and the our Battler is subbed in for the dead one. Who knows the truth? Rudolf does, since he said he had to talk to Battler about his parentage. Kinzo did, since he arranged it. Maybe some of the servants did, particularly the older and more trusted ones. Does Kyrie? She seems to think her child is dead. It could happen: her family are aristocrats and presumably went into fits when she turned up pregnant. They probably confine her, to hide the pregnancy, and take the baby away when it's born, then tell her it died. Kinzo gets the baby and away we go. It does require that Rudolf doesn't tell Kyrie what happened to their child, which seems a stretch. While I like this theory, the timeline may not snap into place, particularly the timing of the two pregnancies. I should really reread everything to make sure, but I should also really get to work. I should also really consider the possibility that Battler is the baby, but not Kyrie's child. In that case, I don't see who's child he is (Rudolf and yet another woman?) and by God we've already got enough characters running around without introducing a new secret mother.
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Apr 19, 2017 16:57
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Well, the game isn't over; the witches lost interest. I guess this timeline goes into stasis or plays out without their influence. Maybe there are more murders, maybe not. For cliff baby being Beatrice 2's child, I thought the ages didn't work - she died too early. Man, the chronology is a mess. But yes, the source of the baby doesn't matter for my blue, so long as it's tied to the family. I think it's important to understand that this game is not like the others, and may not have the same killer(s). There's a new witch in town, and she plays the game very differently, even if the rules are the same.
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Apr 19, 2017 22:31
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oblongmeow posted:For what it's worth, this part of the timeline is relatively unambiguous by Umineko standards. We have in red that the events between Rosa and Beatrice 2 took place in 1967, 19 years ago. Hmm. I did like the Beatrice-as-mother possibility. Replacing Kyrie with her keeps the rest of the logic together. Explains why Battler's sin couldn't have been done by the original Battler - Beatrice didn't care about him.
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Apr 20, 2017 01:12
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