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I really shouldn't have put off marathoning these threads for so long, I've missed out on a lot of chances for speculation. For the first four games, I really missed my chance on that. That Shannon and/or Kanon, as well as Nanjo, seems to be involved seems to be a correct assumption to me, but the number of people some of the other theories have proposed doesn't sit nearly as well. Now that I'm actually caught up, I'll probably go back over the first four and see what I can draw out of it later on. However, that's less of a priority than the current mysteries... Regarding the epitaph, though QUADRILLION seems an appropriate starting point, I can't think that it describes the whole thing. The way Erika and Battler treat it during Part 10 seems more to me like some sort of path that has to be followed, doing something at each location (gouge the X and kill), which then opens (?) a passageway/shows a signpost of some sort to the area Eva found in part 3. Given the circumstances, I'm relatively certain it has to refer to various places in the mansion, but I'd need a map of the grounds to be certain. If I'm right about this, my guess would be that the "QUADRILLION" places the 'head' somewhere in the vicinity of the chapel, but again I'd need a map to be sure of it. I seem to recall one in one of the updates at one point, so I'll have to look for it later. Regarding the mystery caller, there are two obvious motivations that I can see. I don't think it's a hallucination or other fabrication of Natsuhi's - one would think that it would have happened on the other boards as well if that were the case, and Bern obviously doesn't know about it. It's also something that happened before the two days, and yet grows to eventually affect that period of time - an independent section that still affects the unknown period of time. Lambda being the caller can in no way make it a fake, as it can simply be a representation of her piece moving. That said, two motivations: to torment Natsuhi, and to take her out during the first night, nullifying any possible alibi she could have. So I suppose Natsuhi and her caller can be the most likely to be the possible killers this time around, through motive alone if nothing else. Those who definitely knew about the baby can be assumed to be Kumasawa, Krauss, and almost certainly Genji through proximity to Kinzo alone. Possibly Nanjo for the same reason as Genji, but he's slightly less likely. Kumasawa's female, and if she's the one she needs a partner to assist her with the calls, making her less likely. Krauss was around when a call came, meaning it's unlikely that it's him unless Genji's in on it as well (not impossible, Genji's been shown to be willing to lie for Krauss and family). It could theoretically be one of the kids/younger servants who made the calls, but they'd both have to find out about the whole baby situation in the first place and have a reason to hate Natsuhi for it. That's less likely to be the case than the ones who already knew, so disregarding them for now. Interesting side notes for now: Hideyoshi died in a different way from the rest (reason?), and Krauss and Nanjo aren't shown in the parlor scene.
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Apr 2, 2017 00:30
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CottonWolf posted:That feels like cheating... But yeah, I guess that means we can be pretty sure Natsuhi isn't the killer. And that Bern's somewhat less of the great detective she sells herself as. It's theoretically possible, but I'd bet against it currently. I'm also not sure if Erika's actually expressing the answer which the two witches are thinking is sealing off Lambda's moves - there's a possibility that accusing Natsuki is a feint to draw out other information.
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Apr 2, 2017 19:07
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Qrr posted:So Krauss is almost certainly actually dead, unless they're going to count Kinzo towards the epitaph or they aren't following the epitaph this time. All the Natsuhi scenes are "explanations" for why she looks so guilty, but i think that either she actually is guilty or in reality there are different reasons why she appears guilty. From the sample we got at the beginning, Hideyoshi gets backstabbed with a stake at some point after this. I was wondering what was up with his different method of death, but a different time of death certainly explains that.
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Apr 3, 2017 04:08
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Considering the current shape of the board again, I think I can see why Ronove commented on there being no 'love'. In the first four games, it followed the epitaph - theoretically for the reason of getting Battler to see the VIP room at the end of the tunnel, and in some way reminding him of his 'sin'. However, in this game that objective seems to have been abandoned. We've got five murders, all in the most simple fashion, with the sixth (Hideyoshi) being apparently an afterthought with a Stake. There's no locked rooms, no tricks, no alibis even, and not to mention this: ProfessorProf posted:When he tried to open the door, Kanon noticed something strange on the upper part of the door. I can't read the first bit, but that name underneath definitely reads Frederica Bernkastel. Comparing it to the name underneath, my best guess is G. Peueler (Peuder?), which means absolutely nothing to me. The first letter of whatever that second word is doesn't match the F of Frederica, and the 'el' of Bernkastel to some degree matches up with the latter half. But anyways, continuing on, Fernkastel forcing herself in as the detective with the red deforms the shape of the board even more, making it unrecognisable from what it originally was. None of this really works to "show the murders to someone", and really just feels like Bern and Lambda moving their pieces for entertainment, rather than with a purpose. I don't feel like the Beatrice person/group is acting in this game, for whatever reason. Is it because Battler's already seen the gold VIP room, eliminating what may have been the primary motive? Beatrice doesn't gain directly from the epitaph being solved, but solving the riddle was the condition set for the murders to stop. Logically, revealing the path, or the room the gold is in, is therefore the goal, and we know that Battler's the target from the question posed in the fourth game, as well as the fact he's been left alive through all of this. To answer that, actually finding the path the riddle defines is likely required. My best guess as to the identity of the mystery caller is Krauss, with Genji's assistance. His body hasn't been found as of the sample we got earlier, and he's one of those that would have the means to accomplish it. He knows about the baby from 19 years before, and it'd be child's play to stage the calls we've seen so far. The second call could easily be applied through both actual knowledge and magician's choice. Third one is even easier, he simply needs to remove whatever's disguising his voice and it'd be "Krauss, kidnapped". As for motive, that would be difficult to define at this point. Perhaps he only found out about the baby's death recently (as it's implied he didn't know before) and that's the cause for some reason.
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Apr 3, 2017 06:45
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Lord Koth posted:While it helps that I already know what that is, I'd never actually looked closely at that picture and noticed it said Frederika Bernkastel on the bottom of the strip of tape. Looking at it a bit more, the top part is perfectly legible as well. I am forced to conclude that I am an idiot and/or blind.
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Apr 3, 2017 07:57
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Bernkastel's blue truth seems to cover all the scenarios I can think of, so not much to say on that. However, if we hold the profiles to be the truth, then that eliminates her first blue truth - "the wound was deep enough that anyone could easily confirm [their] death with absolute certainty". The third is a little too much along the lines of Tiny Bombs for my taste, but I suppose it does eliminate the possibility of substitute bodies of any sort. Thus, the second is my preferred theory for now. It's still possible for Natsuhi to have committed the murders and Krauss to have cleaned them up later, which would align with the preview we had. Motive still unclear right now, though if the bodies are found in Kinzo's study (as it appears may happen right now), it might be possible to create the illusion that "Kinzo murdered everybody and vanished". Though it would look suspicious for Krauss to not be in that pile too, I guess. Still, from how Bern and Lambda discussed it early on, the motivation isn't going to be the same as Beatrice's. What's more interesting is how everyone's moving around as a group right now, which wouldn't leave that much of an opportunity later for Hideyoshi to be stake-stabbed. idonotlikepeas posted:The tape is clearly there to restrict who had access to the room when. Did Erika run across the murder scene and just seal it up for later? That'd be super weird, but, well. Assuming Erika was the one to seal the room, it would presumably have been to prevent possible tampering. On that note, if she actually did find the room first, then she would also have likely been able to conduct an investigation and confirm Genji's death. CottonWolf posted:Well, considering that the only other time the epitaph was solved, the murders continued, presumably the reasoning is the same as then. I've been working on the logic that "Beatrice" has the same motivation across the game boards, even if I don't know what it is yet. But it really seems like the whole solve the epitaph to stop the killing thing is a red herring. Unless there really were two killers in episode three, and the motivation switched from whatever "Beatrice's" goals are to greed and the second killer was killing for the gold. I mean, it's possible that Beatrice's goal in every game has been to reveal that Kinzo was dead, but why? This being about inheritance seems a bit prosaic, when we know that she doesn't care about the gold at all. The defiling of his memory? But that doesn't really jive with trying to show Battler something. Assuming that logic is true, the sticking point in episode 3 is that the epitaph being solved was never announced. The only two that knew it had been solved were Rosa and Eva. So if the point were to show Battler something about the epitaph, then that was never fulfilled in that game. My current play assumption is that Battler must follow the epitaph path to the end and see the Golden Land for Beatrice's objective to be fulfilled. An interesting thing I noticed is that if the guess in the previous thread about Shannon/Battler being in love six years ago was true, it might put a different spin on the epitaph's rewards. Epitaph posted:One shall be, all the gold from the Golden Land. The second is a little odd, but my guess is that if meta-Battler solves it, the murders don't occur in the first place, and result in "the resurrection of the souls" from their future-dead states. The third is the one I'm mainly referring to here. It's assumed that the "resurrection of the lost love" is Kinzo-Beatrice, but what if it refers to Battler and somebody instead? Fourth line presumably refers to how if the epitaph is solved, the need for Beatrice is over, and thus the witch is put to sleep for all time.
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Apr 4, 2017 01:00
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tiistai posted:But she has nothing to gain from having someone solve the epitaph. Having an "objective fulfilled" sounds like something to gain to me. Ugh, the specific way that's phrased seems to block even indirect circumstantial gain. What exactly was the red truth relating to that again? Beato has nothing to gain from having someone solve the epitaph. Regardless of whether the epitaph is solved or not, Beato has nothing to gain. The gold of the Golden Land belongs to this child. She had absolutely no need to make you find it for her or to snatch it away herself. Battler-kun isn't the culprit. Battler-kun didn't kill anyone. This can be said of all games. Her goal is not to make someone experience fear. And it isn't to have revenge on someone either. Beato never committed murder for the sake of pleasure. Theoretically, that, as Battler says, implies that the riddle is immaterial, but that's never actually stated by Virgilia (she even says that'd be taking it to its extreme). That also seems to eliminate everything related to the path the epitaph carves out and the room at the end as well, given those are part of the epitaph's secret. However, that may not necessarily exclude that area as a possibility. Beato implies that the previous Battler of six years ago and the current one are not the same person, and that the 'sin' would be something known by the previous one. Perhaps the epitaph's mention is intended to serve more as a reminder to six-years-previous-Battler, with something it points out being the reminder it's trying to make. That seems to bypass the red yet still retain any significance the epitaph may hold. Qrr posted:On the other hand, Bernkastel is the one pretending to follow the rules of a detective novel, and having the detective find and investigate a crime scene offscreen sounds like a cardinal sin for that genre to me. Bernkastel seems to be primarily adhering to Knox's commandments, where one is "The detective is bound to declare any clues which he may discover." The most likely counterpoint is "If no clues are discovered, then they do not have to be declared." Now, what any purpose of taping the door could be, I don't know, but it seems more likely for Erika to have left the tape (especially in that manner) than the murderer. Otherwise the tape really doesn't serve any purpose - it doesn't create a locked room, and it seems really odd to address a tape-note to someone who arrived unannounced on the previous night, even accounting for Lambdadelta's interference.
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Apr 4, 2017 05:11
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oath2order posted:Which brings us to the real magic of this line. Something you're just gonna need to see to believe. That is glorious. It's more magic than the furniture. BurningStone posted:I don't want to drop the discussion of Beato's motive for the murders, but drat, that's a tough block of red. Is there some weasel room by saying Beato isn't Beatrice? I hope that isn't it. I'm pretty sure there is no weasel room in there. Just like how hidden rooms were defined outside of the red truth, Beato was defined as being Beatrice. I'm also pretty sure the epitaph is the equivalent of Kinzo's will, given what was mentioned in the starting scene. They said it was put up two years before, and Kinzo died a year and some before. The times match up. I think 'gain' in that conversation was considered as 'benefit'. If Beatrice benefits from the games ending, then that'd be considered a 'gain'. We know Beato's motive relates to Battler's 'sin' six years ago. The red related to that: Six years ago, no person called BEATRICE existed for me. The sin I am now demanding you remember is not between Ushiromiya Battler and BEATRICE. Ushiromiya Battler has a sin. Because of your sin, people die. Due to your sin, a great many humans of this island die. No one escapes, all die. The last one seems very interesting to me in that it contradicts the third game, episode 3. Eva makes it out. We also know that there are two Ushiromiya Battlers. My name is Ushiromiya Battler. I am the Golden Witch, BEATRICE. And I opened this game in order to fight Ushiromiya Kinzo's grandchild, Ushiromiya Battler. Ushiromiya Battler's mother is Ushiromiya Asumu. It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that Ushiromiya Battler was born. You are not Ushiromiya Asumu's son. With a failed "It was from Ushiromiya Asumu that I was born." Beatrice's lines relating to that: ProfessorProf posted:
It could be deceptive, but this one doesn't feel quite as likely. So we have two Battlers. It's unknown as to when the current one switched in (likely points being a little under six years ago and at birth). That particular section suggests Beatrice is Shannon/Sayo (with Battler's sin being not coming back). If this is true, then the "true/false" being referred to here is metaphorical, and the swap happened near birth. That seems to be the more likely interpretation of the two, though him literally being a different person than he was six years ago can't be discounted as impossible. Presumably the epitaph can be used to serve as a reminder to the past, where things like this happened: Things that might help him remember the promise he made six years ago. Problem is, I have absolutely no idea where in the timeline that mentioned section happened, and if Shannon was actually around for that section. The connection to the epitaph also seems a little weak for the epitaph to serve as a reminder.
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Apr 5, 2017 04:18
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"No. There is no way that you're my opponent, Ushiromiya Battler. With this as proof."
"Proof, you say?!"
"...Uh, th-that's..."
"No, the true Ushiromiya Battler would not have committed a sin. But a sin did occur in the end, that span of six years became a blank space, and a man who knew nothing of that time took on the name Ushiromiya Battler and appeared on Rokkenjima. That truth... goes like this."
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The answer is clearly Roland. A piece to fight against witches and demons is a knight (continuing the chess metaphor) and one of the Twelve Paladins of Charlemagne is a fitting piece for Furudo Erika. I wonder if she's going to confine herself to those, or if someone like Inwaga is going to appear. BurningStone posted:Bravely ignoring that update to try and focus: I do think your point about all witches being female has some merit - Kinzo was referred to as Goldsmith the mage. So by that logic, it has to be a woman that the sin was committed to, but they might not have to be alive in all the episodes - it could be carried on by someone else. Admittedly a stretch, but I see no reason to discount it as of yet. The two big names that have a noted connection with six years ago are Shannon and Kyrie. lookw posted:The double battlers feels like there is a simple explanation but it requires Rudolf, Kinzo and Asumu to work. I believe that both Asumu and Kyrie were pregnant at the same time (or close enough to make little difference). Also Asumu gave birth first to Battler and Kyries child died at birth right? But what happens if they both were born and Asumus child died soon after? Since Kyrie has.....lets say a very controlling family it would not be to their benefit to have her marry into the Ushiromiya family at the time. So they were switched at birth. Kyrie was told her child died and Asumu was given "Battler" to raise as her son. That would explain why Battler was both Ushiromiya Asumus son and "Battler" was not born from Ushiromiya Asumu. Also every-time Rudolf tries to tell both Kyrie and Battler about Battlers birth...or something....he dies or gets distracted. He even mentions how he may be killed that night before hes able to tell Battler what he wanted to say. That means someone else knows the secret and doesn't want it to come to light. CottonWolf posted:E2: Also, there's weird wording in that last line. Due to your sin, a great many humans of this island die. No one escapes, all die. Firstly, a great many humans die. Then, all die. What if this is obfuscation? Maybe the two sentences are both true, but disconnected. The first is the relevant part. The second is a trivially true statement about mortality. There's nothing in the red text requires connections between statements. No one escapes makes that tough, but it might be metaphorical. Both Eva and Ange were still heavily affected in a way that could mean they "didn't escape".
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Apr 5, 2017 19:14
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tiistai posted:Based on the TIP Memoirs by Lady Lambdadelta, being a witch isn't gender specific. Goldsmith was just a summoner, he simply didn't have the skills to be a witch. A very good point, thank you for the correction. I don't think there are very many males to add to the pool, though. Rudolf and Kinzo come to mind, but that one was already denied during episode 4.
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Apr 5, 2017 19:55
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idonotlikepeas posted:In that case, Roland is probably a good guess, or Arnold, or Ronald. I'm betting it's Ronald, because that's Father Knox's first name. Is this going to be some hosed-up gender-swapped version of Knox? That would be amazing to see. BurningStone posted:While I said I didn't know what Battler's sin was, I realize it pretty much has to be turning his back on the family. It's the only thing we know he did six years ago and, let's face it, he was eleven years old. It just doesn't seem like enough to trigger a bloodbath six years later. ProfessorProf posted:
So the two hints given are here: "It's something related to Rokkenjima, the main residence of the Ushiromiya Head Family." and "In the world that you are, it was as though I didn't exist." The only ones to qualify for the second are, in my mind, the servants or maybe Kyrie. Those are the only people I can see being considered as "unacquainted" with Battler. I can't see it being Gohda. He's too unacquainted. I can't see it being Genji as the prime mover either. So four remain. Kyrie, Kumasawa, Shannon, and Kanon. Of those, Kanon is the most likely if the literal meaning is taken, and Shannon being slightly less likely by virtue of forcing the metaphorical definition. To some degree, I can't help but wonder if the sin being mentioned is the whole thing regarding how he told Shannon that he'd come back, and Kanon is simply the one carrying it out. If Kanon were BEATRICE, then it would neatly sidestep the red yet still qualify.
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Apr 5, 2017 22:42
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"Atonement? What the hell, are you asking me to prostrate myself right here and apologize like Dad did...?!"
"...Even if you... tell me to remember..."
"...You make it sound like I caused you trouble six years ago or something, but I supposedly met you for the first time at this family conference. It's true that your legend also existed six years ago, but I shouldn't have been acquainted with you."
"...Naturally. On the Rokkenjima of six years ago, I had not yet materialized."
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BurningStone posted:In the first arc, Battler had to be introduced to Kanon and Gohda, because they weren't around six years ago. But Kanon is quietly furious with the world, and a prime candidate to grab a knife and start leaping about. He's also very protective of Shannon, which fits well. But does it really seem like he's spent years resenting Battler for not being around for Shannon, then when he shows up starts killing everybody else? Beato has nothing to gain from having someone solve the epitaph. Regardless of whether the epitaph is solved or not, Beato has nothing to gain. I still feel a cry for attention, a rememberance of the sin he committed 6 years ago, is the main motive here. Acknowledgement and repentance. CottonWolf posted:Her shoulder's a rook. I think it's quite clever. drat, beaten to like everything at the same time. Dlanor's left arm appears to be representing a rook, the pieces Bernkastel specifically namedropped. My expectation was the last of those three blues - Kinzo left first, then Natsuhi followed him out some time later. Eva seals the door when Natsuhi leaves, after Kinzo has already left. If it's a closed room, then all you have to do is exit it before the trap slams shut. Any method of exiting the room has been denied. Door was not opened past 11. Windows can only be locked from the inside. No hidden passages. Natsuhi spoke with him face-to-face. Kinzo refers to Ushiromiya Kinzo, and no one else. Cyouni fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Apr 6, 2017 |
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Apr 6, 2017 18:33
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grandalt posted:Knox's rules? Isn't it already proven that a number of those rules are broken for this story? I would think that would make using them a poor choice. It's only broken if magic and furniture is real.
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Apr 6, 2017 20:14
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curiousCat posted:
This would be totally amazing to see the fighting game section that I assume she's in. If she's not in it, this is a crime against HUMANITY.
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Apr 7, 2017 00:58
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Heh the Ushiromiya family at "yeah this sick 80 year old guy can jump out 3rd story windows, happens all the time". But yeah, if the door was blocked, then jumping out the window like a madman certainly works. But something interesting I noticed - this "red truth barrier" that's been going up looks identical to Shannon's, and I'm not sure it's a coincidence.
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Apr 7, 2017 19:41
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Now that's just rude, Bern.
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Apr 8, 2017 18:14
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tiistai posted:Time to prove you're smarter than the great detective, thread. You already missed your chance with the obvious raingutter thing too. Doesn't really disprove the whole thing with Kinzo's DESIRE, so not really worth focusing on. Only reason Erika needed to focus on it so much was because she was proven wrong thanks to it. EagerSleeper posted:My blue truth for the letter appearing is that it wasn't Shannon who touched it. It was Sayo. Doesn't matter, that's blocked by the red truth excluding everyone in the mansion. That one is simple, however - there's an hour gap between when Shannon/Kanon came in to serve tea, and when the knocking happened. Anyone in the guesthouse could have placed it between those times, and left before 24:00, thereby fulfilling the red truth about "no one in the mansion" and "at 24:00, these people were in the mansion". ProfessorProf posted:Barely an hour ago, Shannon and Kanon had come in to serve tea. At that time, everyone had seen that nothing lay in that spot. Someone came, knocked, left an envelope with the mark of the One-winged Eagle on it, and left... I'm not sure if this intentionally contradicts what Dlanor said about the circumstances at the time, but within the setting posed by the section at the time of the incident, it's not hard to solve. The easy answer is that one of Gohda or Kumasawa unlocked a door with their master key in order to do that. The tricky part is the knocking, which I still haven't thought of an answer to yet. Cyouni fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Apr 10, 2017 |
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Apr 10, 2017 18:07
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idonotlikepeas posted:Knox's 8th is a bit tricky to apply to me, since I'm not a detective in the story and can't uncover additional evidence on my own. The story isn't complete yet, so it is entirely possible that evidence of such a conspiracy will appear in the next post, before the conclusion is reached. idonotlikepeas posted:I thought about this one a bit, but unfortunately, the statement you're alluding to is no one in the mansion placed the letter in the hallway. It doesn't say "nobody I said was in the mansion before", just nobody in the mansion, and it doesn't say "nobody placed it between time X and Y or at time Z", and it is further clarified to mean that they didn't do it at all, in any way, even accidentally. Combine that with It was impossible for anyone outside the mansion to influence anything inside the mansion around the time of the family conference. and the result is that neither anyone IN the mansion nor anyone OUT of the mansion could have placed the letter. This is what caused Erika's brain to blow a fuse. The only conclusion we can reasonably come to is that the letter was NOT placed in the hallway, and any appearance that it was is some sort of sleight of hand; the exact nature of that trick is debatable, of course. tiistai posted:It was impossible for anyone outside the mansion to influence anything inside the mansion around the time of the family conference. The red truth in this particular update is sort of weird. A lot of it seems to act more as compilations of previous reds, but in ways that also seem to compile far more than necessary. Things like this come up: ProfessorProf posted:
Despite the fact that the first red appears to deny it, the later blue of "someone hid and didn't actually go to the guesthouse" still seems to be effective as a possibility. ProfessorProf posted:
This... ProfessorProf posted:In that case, the random location the letter fell to off the bottom of the serving cart couldn't be connected with the knock. For the letter to be found thanks to the knock, it would have to be reliably positioned 'on the other side of the door'. However, it was announced in red that no one in the mansion placed the letter in the hallway. ...later gets condensed to this, without any further clarification. ProfessorProf posted:
Aside from the odd anomaly of there being 8 people mentioned outside the mansion, Bern also seems to consider "in the mansion" not including people who were "in the mansion before 24:00, and simply slipped out". So for my theory, When "in the mansion" is used in the past update, it refers to the people mentioned as being in the mansion at 24:00. Therefore, it allows for the possibility of a person listed as being outside as 24:00 to be inside previous to that time, place the letter and knock, and then escape outside the mansion (perhaps through a window) before 24:00 occurs.
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Apr 10, 2017 20:33
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"Please, allow me to speak. Before the family conference, Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa left the mansion and moved to the guesthouse."
"Please, allow me to speak. Of those who remain, only Krauss, Natsuhi, and Genji were in the second floor corridor, while all others were in the dining hall."
"Maybe one of those not in the parlor: Krauss, Natsuhi or Genji, simply saw their chance right after that and placed the letter there. No wait, it should be possible for the people who supposedly went to the guesthouse too."
"We've heard that the mansion was locked and that no one outside could get in, but if someone pretended to have gone to the guesthouse and instead hid inside the mansion, it's perfectly possible that they could've placed the letter there."
"Not a single person in the dining hall... no, there's a simpler way to say it. Among all those inside the mansion at 24:00, not a single person placed that letter in the corridor."
"...For example, let's assume there was a device on the serving cart that 'drops the letter when it stops moving'. In this case, you'd think they could predict that the cart would probably stop just once when those two knock on the door to the dining hall, and by doing so, they'd be cleverly making it so the letter drops right in front of the door."
"But even this doesn't work, okay? The action of 'stopping the serving cart' would indirectly lead to 'placing the letter in the hallway'. That would mean Shannon and Kanon, who were pushing the cart, had 'indirectly and unintentionally' placed the letter there! So even this is no good! Furthermore, setting it up so that the letter peeled off with the passage of time would mean that the people pushing the serving cart had 'coincidentally and unintentionally' placed the letter there. Of course, this is also no good!!"
"Repeat it. 'At 24:00, only Erika, George, Jessica, Maria, Nanjo, Gohda, and Kumasawa existed outside the mansion'."
"...Repeat iiiiiit...? Even though I'm nice enough to give you all this red for free? Aren't you being a bit greedy? I'm not an idiot like Beato, so I won't go around saying everything my opponent tells me to repeat..."
"...I'll give you a full body massage in a bath with marshmallows and konpeito sometime soon. Enough to rub your skin off."
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I'd honestly prefer to avoid constantly pulling the "possibly didn't happen" card due to how boring it is, but it is a possible solution to this one. CottonWolf posted:E: Or it could be time for the resurrection of the trained non-human primate theory from the previous thread. Chimp-kun was the knocker. E2: Though I've tragically realised that that would be a violation of Knox's 8th. Goat-kun was the knocker remains valid however, as we have been properly prepared for his existence. E3: Though goat's don't have hands, violating Lambda's red. Foiled again. Ah, but there's a simple answer. We know that the seagulls have been missing (as evidenced by their lack of crying), and Kinzo's body has never been seen. Ergo, it's Seagulls-kun, using Kinzo's body as a puppet to knock on the door. idonotlikepeas posted:Hadn't thought about the caller, but yeah, that's a thing to ponder. If I proceed on the assumption that Kanon was the child, he'd have to have enlisted help from someone else outside the room to make the call happen at that time. Of course, I don't think anything about the call has been said in red, so we might be deceived about the precise timing by, e.g., a clock whose time had been adjusted. It's possible, but we know it happens soon after midnight, as evidenced by the main clock's bells at the time Genji announces the call. I don't think that could be delayed overly long.
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Apr 11, 2017 01:14
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Qrr posted:I think there's decent mileage in "it was the only unlocked room". Then someone just needs to push him towards alone time, which is less obvious than pushing him to a specific room, and because they keep all their rooms locked (also, why the heck do they keep most of the rooms in the house locked? Weird), he'd only be able to go into that one. I'll point out an interesting thing - he had a key and apparently expected the door to be locked. The question is if he's going to still have that key when his body's found. "Who are you" might be Hideyoshi's reaction to hearing movement behind him in a supposedly locked room, and may not necessarily mean it was someone he didn't know. Another interesting thing is that he apparently sees the Stake at some point in time.
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Apr 11, 2017 23:54
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thetruegentleman posted:That's actually a big part of why this seems so suspicious: they could confirm it, but that brings up the question of whether or not they *actually did*. They also might not be playing dead: Jessica could have been drugged to actually be sleeping, and not just playing dead. Unless you think Battler and Kyrie are both in on it, there's not really anywhere to go along the line of logic that they were "playing dead". That would violate the red, and this time it was absurdly explicit. I really think the only ones that it could be here are Natsuhi and Krauss. Krauss is by far my favourite for the caller, but that last murder looked like it could only be Natsuhi unless there was another spot someone could hide.
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Apr 12, 2017 19:18
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Oof, that red is getting meaner. That actually leaves an interesting situation, though. When was Genji killed? Erika sealed him in, yet he still died to something. That one seems likely to be suicide, since I don't recall any other entrances into that room. Even checking the end of episode 3, that appears pretty sealed off. It's also significant that this setup in no way denies witches, just the absence of other human culprits. Something about the timing bothers me. Erika asserts that the crime took place between 24:00 and 1:00, yet Rosa returned at 1:00 in this update. Cyouni fucked around with this message at 15:34 on Apr 14, 2017 |
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Apr 14, 2017 15:18
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tiistai posted:Erika is a goddamn pervert Nothing less from the intellectual rapist.
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Apr 14, 2017 16:08
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oath2order posted:The clue for Erika Listening to the wall is the fact that she's loving psychotic, and a goddamn metagamer. Eh, it's really to prove Battler innocent, which we already knew by red.
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Apr 15, 2017 04:06
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There still feels like there's a gaping hole here. At 1:00, Rosa is confirmed to have left the family meeting, and to have been there at all times prior to that. Erika insists that the murders happened prior to 1:00. Yet Rosa's body was found with the rest in the guestroom. So there has to be some flaw there, some path that allows for that to happen. As a side thought, is there anything that specifically stops the detective from being the culprit if they're not the viewpoint character?
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Apr 15, 2017 19:18
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oath2order posted:Knox's 7th explicitly denies the possibility. Since Erika being the detective is said in Red, she cannot be the culprit. If you were thinking Erika murdered the people and is framing Natsuhi, I guess it's Game Over for you. Right, it had both the "viewpoint character can't commit the crime" and "detective can't commit the crime" as separate sections. Edit: It still occurs to me that they never actually cited Knox's 7th, and it'd be pretty witch-like to call out certain ones and ignore the others. Hmm... The other note is that Erika physically cannot be correct here, since Rosa left the party at 1:00 to start moving to the guesthouse, and Erika claims that the murders must have happened before 1:00. Unless Rosa was literally a dead woman walking, this is impossible. So it theoretically happened between 1:00 and 3:00, which could have trapped the culprit there the whole time. Genji died between 12:00 and 1:00, at which point the culprit moved to the guesthouse. It's possible this was a suicide, but unlikely. So then there are two options - that one of the cousins/Rosa was a collaborator, but I'll deem that unlikely. It'd be veering too close to violating the red on it is absolutely impossible that they are just people playing dead. I feel like to some degree, Bern/Erika are directing the game towards Krauss because they don't actually have an alibi for him. Cyouni fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Apr 15, 2017 |
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Apr 15, 2017 20:12
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whitehelm posted:Erika is only saying that the culprit went up to the second floor before 1:00 because she was watching the stairs after that. The murders (or at least Rosa's murder) occurred after that, but the culprit in Erika's solution was already hiding somewhere on the second floor so they couldn't have an alibi. If we take Erika's statement and innocence as read, then the only person it could be is Krauss. From what I can tell, both sets of bodies were discovered at the same time, and the discoverers met up in the parlour area. Natsuhi had already been fetched by that time, so unless she made a mad dash from the guesthouse to her room in time to not get discovered, she's out even by Erika's logic. We know that they couldn't have left after 3:00, because spider-Erika was on the wall. The only way the cousins/Rosa could be not-dead is if Nanjo were in on it the entire time, and if Battler and everyone else specifically did not look at the bodies when discovering them.
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Apr 15, 2017 20:51
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whitehelm posted:There are other rooms on the second floor of the guesthouse besides Erika's and the cousin's. The culprit could've gone to the second floor before 1:00, killed Rosa between 1:00 and 3:00 and hid in another room, then just left after 3:00. Erika was only listening to the cousin's room at that point. That seems plausible, especially since Genji would already have been dead at that point and they could just unlock the rooms with his key. Qrr posted:Once again, that red was about corpses. None of the corpses were just people playing dead. Which is a useless tautology. If we want to go that route, we must also start questioning the definitions of closed rooms, traps, and such, given those were never stated in red to be explicitly what they're referring to in past usages of the red.
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Apr 16, 2017 02:49
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Kinzo still confirmed for being an rear end in a top hat. Big thing for mystery-solving this time is that Krauss is dead, killed after the whole wake-up time. Note that does not in any way absolve him of the murders on the first twilight. Simply means someone else murdered him and Hideyoshi. And yeah, George being 24 and Shannon 16 makes that even more eyebrow-raising than it already was.
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Apr 16, 2017 20:40
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lotus circle posted:That moment is more to highlight how loving nasty Bern is. She's already won and dishonored Natsuhi's pride by framing her for a crime, but now she's also digging into Natsuhi's heart and crushing it. It's no different than how she denied the scene of Beatrice drinking tea beside her. Of course we know Natsuhi isn't really drinking tea with Beatrice, but was it necessary to destroy that bit of happiness Natsuhi had in her heart? Bernkastel says "yes" and proceeds to do so. Bernkastel, the Witch of Miracles aka "Miracles don't exist and I will poo poo on you for even thinking that they might".
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Apr 17, 2017 00:31
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CottonWolf posted:The only people who could have made it are the cousins (we know there's a telephone in their room), or Kumasawa and Gohda (if they have telephones in their rooms). Everyone else has an alibi. Kumasawa was supposedly asleep, though that was never stated in red. We know Gohda didn't make the call the following morning, though that doesn't rule him out for the previous night. Genji seemingly looks like he could have done it, but considering that when Genji finished transferring the call, he immediately returned to the waiting room, he couldn't have possibly made it, because talking occurs after transferring, and he immediately did something else. I still argue Krauss + someone is a viable option. Krauss was simply killed by whomever his partner was (or whoever) after that second call was made. Everyone but Krauss may have alibis for the first twilight, and Krauss may have died after that morning call was made, but that in no way stops Krauss from being the one responsible for the first twilight, and then being killed after that. There also haven't been any calls since then, so Krauss could very easily have been the caller. And yes, Dlanor is great.
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Apr 17, 2017 16:00
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I will point out that we've gotten a confirmation of Battler's sin, and as expected it's a promise he made six years ago that he forgot about. Still probably that one with Shannon.
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Apr 17, 2017 17:07
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CottonWolf posted:That's possible, but only if Krauss and Genji are working together. Genji arrives to tell Natsuhi about the call when she and Krauss are together, so either Genji has to be in on it and is setting up for Krauss or Krauss didn't make the call. Well, we already know Genji's willing to obey orders like "say X happened" in regards to Kinzo, so it's not much of a stretch to include Krauss in that. Technically, the red specifies Krauss isn't the culprit, but I can easily get around that by doing the same thing as Danganronpa - the culprit is qualified as the person who planned and executed the whole thing, and Krauss simply counts as a pawn.
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Apr 17, 2017 20:07
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I believe the theory is that Natsuhi entered into the guesthouse second floor between the hours of 24:00 and 1:00, and was the only person with an opportunity to do so. After that, she killed the cousins, as well as Rosa (who entered later), and left after 3:00 when everyone had entered their rooms and could no longer see the hallway. In the interim time, she was hiding in one of the other locked guestrooms, having used Genji's key to open it. I submit that this is similarly possible for Krauss, who was used as a piece by the culprit. Krauss was assisting someone else in being the mystery caller, and was further assisted by Genji. Following the last call to Natsuhi, the real culprit killed Krauss, and they are the ones directly responsible for Hideyoshi's murder.
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Apr 17, 2017 23:16
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tiistai posted:Erika would've heard it. The intellectual rapist was too busy creeping on Battler's room to not miss anything that happened in that room. This does not include the hallway outside. Any solution where she leaves before 1 has the problem of Rosa being alive, where any solution that happens at body discovery time has really sketchy time circumstances if we add in the discovery time of Genji's body and her being notified about it.
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Apr 18, 2017 00:14
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tiistai posted:They were all in the same room, though, Battler and the victims. Are there not other guestrooms? In the scenario I propose, the victims are dead when Battler enters and Erika starts listening, and the killer is hiding out in another room opened with a master key.
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Apr 18, 2017 03:33
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Man, that's just brutal. A lot of respect has to be given to Natsuhi here, but in this case it's gotten increasingly difficult to separate the world of the board from the world of the meta, to the point where I wonder if she knows if Krauss is dead or not. I'd say not, which means she's doing all of this to help save the honour of the already-dead. I really find Erika's outburst here to be quite reminiscent of Battler's back in Episode 4, where he declares that he won't trust what Beatrice's saying about his 'sin' unless it's declared in red. Notably here, where Battler's was about rejecting the negative, Erika's rejecting the positive. Bern really took some...interesting lessons from Higurashi. I do have to wonder where Kinzo and Krauss's bodies are hidden, though. Beatrice must know the location of the first, and also must be someone who knows that Kinzo is definitely dead and wishes to hide that fact. Another point towards Shannon. ZiegeDame posted:For all her smugness, Erika is really playing on easy mode, isn't she. Lambda isn't even trying. Sure, just selectively ignore red truths that don't fit your theory, why not. Must be so tough, winning a game where both players are on your side. ? The only one she ignored was the one that wasn't backed up with any evidence - Ushiromiya Natsuhi is not the culprit, and that was denied with Knox's 2nd as gathered through a solely supernatural source.
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Apr 18, 2017 18:18
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Qrr posted:Krauss has an alibi via red text that for some reason they are accepting. And that reason is that his isn't a trial in any way - it's a metaphorical witch hunt, as opposed to the literal witch hunts that should be going on. Well, Krauss is only a suspect if the human side (represented by Natsuhi) is willing to push in that direction. So he's out. Unless literally everyone in the family conference is in on it (aka everyone left alive), they're out. Everyone in the guesthouse has an alibi for one reason or another, so they're out. What you're missing is that the human side failed to offer any proof to counter anything the Erika faction offered. "Kinzo is dead" wipes out that entire last update's worth regarding him, for example. Any alternate suspect or possibility presented would clear out the lock on Natsuhi, and none was provided. Qrr posted:That is not how Knoxs 8th works. You're mistaking Knox's Decalogue for the Ten Witch-Hunting Stakes. As has been noted, they're not the same.
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Apr 18, 2017 19:05
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resurgam40 posted:Well, to answer that question, I think we have to address the circumstances of this 5th game- and the fact that, in Beatrice's absence, Lambdadelta took the reins. It is easy to say that since this is a "game without love", as Ronove puts it, that Shortcackle is just ducking around with things willy nilly for fun, but recall that it was mentioned that LD actually does have a good understanding of how Beatrice and her "game" work. It's been mentioned several times that the pieces on the game board are bound to only do what is possible for them, and what those character are able to do. So the mechanics of the game are the same as the previous game boards, despite the Mary Sue. Thus what this all says to me, is that this Beatrice (the real one, not the spirit) is doing things that she could have done before, but wouldn't do. It should be noted that Ronove described it as without love/honour, depending on the perspective, and that the cause lay before the trial section. I'd also guess that Beatrice isn't the murderer here, if we assume love was the motive behind the previous episodes. That's seeming increasingly likely, with the promise that was forgotten.
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Apr 18, 2017 23:17
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Qrr posted:Because red truths have been accepted that had just as little justification. If red truths are only accepted arbitrarily, why should we care about any of them? Notice how Erika never used Kinzo is dead despite how it would have won her fight? Humans aren't allowed to make their cases solely using red, they have to prove their cases with evidence and make their own red based off of that.
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Apr 19, 2017 02:07
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