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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Hello and welcome to the Reworked C-SPAM Prediction and Betting Thread.

In this NEWLY REWORKED 2.0 VERSION, the entire process has been simplified. There are no more markets, which mainly didn't make sense because there was no prize or benefit for "winning".

Now, you can make whatever "bet" you want regarding any politically-related event. You can "bet" anything from the following list which I have shamelessly copy-pasted:

$XX RAINN / ACLU donation
An embarrassing avatar that I will hand-pick for you from a list!
A probation (minimum 12 hours)
Forums Cancer for one week (possibly, if :radiumcode: breaks then this will translate to a week probation)
A ban (no permabans)

While you can structure your toxx / toxx-lite however you want, it is only in your best interest to be extremely clear and concise. If there is any vagueness in it, it is up to my discretion whether or not you "win".

Good Example: DONALD J TRUMP will NOT be impeached before the end of his first term: :thumbsup:
Bad Example: DONALD J TRUMP will NOT leave office. :smith: (this adds vagueness, do we count impeachment, does this technically mean that if he loses in 2020 and he transitions to the next president does that count, etc)






Hello all, and welcome to the C-SPAM Prediction and Betting thread. In this thread, we will give you a chance to back up your long-winded drive-thru orders with cold hard cashor something similar.

You can make predictions PredictIt-style but without any sort of actual tangible benefit to yourself (for now)! Here is a sample post.

quote:

I bet a $20 RAINN donation that Donald J. Trump will run for re-election in 2020.

If somebody makes this post, and then Donald Trump does not run for re-election in 2020 then they are required to donate $20 to RAINN. If he does run, then the bet is complete and they have won nothing. If they refuse to fulfill their end of the bargain, they will be banned.

It's fun, it's safe, and it's easy. It's completely optional obviously, and you can make such predictions ITT and discuss it amongst yourselves.

:siren: For now, the only bets you can make are on events that I will define and post. Look at the second post for current open events! You can only make a bet within these events. You cannot structure your own, for now. :siren:

An open event is an event where you can place a bet in. For example, An open event could be "Hillary Clinton running in 2020, YES or NO?" and you can bet accordingly. However, you can't go off and bet a probation that Bill Nye will run for God Emperor of Iowa, because I did not post that as an event and your bet will be ignored.

Rules - updated regularly
1. Once a prediction has been made, you CANNOT edit your post.
2. You cannot bet a permaban.
3. Probation bets must be structured within the current probation options (12 hours / 24 hours / 1 week / 1 month / 100,000 hours :getin:)

THE PUNISHMENT LIST
$XX RAINN / ACLU donation
An embarrassing avatar that I will hand-pick for you from a list!
A probation (minimum 12 hours)
Forums Cancer (possibly, if :radiumcode: breaks then this will translate to a week probation)
A ban (no permabans)

logikv9 has issued a correction as of 18:41 on Jul 29, 2017

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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Updated 4/18/17

CURRENT OPEN EVENTS
    Democratic - National
  • Andrew Cuomo will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Hillary Clinton will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Hillary Clinton will run for Mayor of NYC, YES or NO?
  • Cory Booker will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Chelsea Clinton will run for any national-level political office (defined as anything Congressional, Gubernatorial, or for President) in the next four years, YES or NO?
  • Bernie Sanders will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?

    Republican - National
  • Donald Trump will run for re-election and will be the Republican nominee for President in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump will be impeached within his first term, YES or NO?
  • The Piss Tape will be released within his first term, YES or NO?
  • Jeb!?? YEAH or HELL YEAH?
  • Reince leaves or is fired from his position as Chief of Staff within the first term, YES or NO?
  • Spicer leaves or is fired from his position as Press Secretary within the first term, YES or NO?
  • Bannon leaves or is fired from the White House within the first term, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump orders military action that directly kills an American citizen (again) in the next four years, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump's tax returns from within the last three years are released in its entirety, YES or NO?
  • The 2020 Presidential Election will occur at all, YES or NO?

    Legislative
  • Obamacare is fully repealed within the next four years, YES or NO?
  • Obamacare is partially repealed to any degree within the next four years, YES or NO?
  • The AHCA pt2 will pass the Senate, YES or NO?
  • The AHCA pt2 will become the law, YES or NO?

    Other (US)
  • Nancy Pelosi will lose to her Primary Challenger, YES or NO?

    FBI / Senate / House Investigation
  • Jared Kushner will be indicted or otherwise implicated in an investigation, YES or NO?
  • Michael Flynn will be indicted or otherwise implicated in an investigation, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump will be implicated in an investigation, YES or NO?
  • Sessions will fire Mueller, YES or NO?

    United Kingdom
  • Brexit occurs within the next four years, YES or NO?

  • Military / World Events
  • The Wall, in any shape, or form, is built, YES or NO?
  • Mexico pays for the wall in any shape or form, YES or NO?
  • Direct military action will be taken against North Korea by the United States within the next four years, YES or NO?

OLD CLOSED EVENTS
[*]The AHCA will pass the Senate, YES or NO?
[*]The AHCA will pass the House, YES or NO?
[*]The AHCA will become the law, YES or NO?
[*]Marine Le Pen wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Marine Le Pen wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Marine Le Pen becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
[*]François Fillon wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]François Fillon wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]François Fillon becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
[*]Emmanuel Macron wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Emmanuel Macron wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Emmanuel Macron becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
[*]Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Jean-Luc Mélenchon becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
Alex Jones is held in contempt of court, YES or NO?

:siren:I don't see a bet I want to make! whine whine whine! :siren:
Please suggest it in the thread!

logikv9 has issued a correction as of 18:35 on Jul 29, 2017

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Also if you have suggestions for improvements let me know.

I wanted to include some sort of prize for "winning", but the issue is that the possible prize selection is rather limited and obviously it would be unfair to include the same prize for winning a bet that you were very unlikely to win vs one that was a shoe-in.

It's a work in progress.

GodFish
Oct 10, 2012

We're your first, last, and only line of defense. We live in secret. We exist in shadow.

And we dress in black.
Not seeing any bets about us being alive/still having a democracy in 2020.

Maybe some non-us votes as well? Le Penn winning? Brexit actually happening, that kind of thing.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

GodFish posted:

Not seeing any bets about us being alive/still having a democracy in 2020.

Maybe some non-us votes as well? Le Penn winning? Brexit actually happening, that kind of thing.

Added. I didn't initially want to add any of those because uh I don't know enough to structure a direct event but I think I pieced it together ok

Trumps Baby Hands
Mar 27, 2016

Silent white light filled the world. And the righteous and unrighteous alike were consumed in that holy fire.
$100 to RAINN on the pisstape coming out in the first term.

Seems unlikely, but I toxxed for a Trump win early on, which seemed impossible. I've always felt like I somehow contributed to the dark meme magic with the toxx, so now I'm focusing my energies on pisstape. Inshallah.

belgend
Mar 6, 2008

me when The Club do another win

op you seem to have forgotten the possibility of benoit hamon becoming president of frahahahahahaaha

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
I bet a $100 Cato Institute donation on Marine Le Pen not becoming the next President of France

Duscat
Jan 4, 2009
Fun Shoe
Let's do this thing. I'll take the Republican Bundle for $100 to the ACLU on each one I get wrong.

Donald Trump will run for re-election and will be the Republican nominee for President in 2020: NO
Donald Trump will be impeached within his first term: NO(*)
The Piss Tape will be released within his first term: NO
Reince leaves or is fired from his position as Chief of Staff within the first term: YES
Spicer leaves or is fired from his position as Press Secretary within the first term: YES
Donald Trump orders military action that directly kills an American citizen (again) in the next four years: YES
Donald Trump's tax returns from within the last three years are released in its entirety: NO
The 2020 Presidential Election will occur at all: YES

(*) While I'm pretty sure Donald will not last four years in office, impeachment won't be the mechanism by which he is ousted. It'll probably be resignation, the 25th amendment, or severe illness or death.

Victory Position
Mar 16, 2004

One week's probation on Chelsea Clinton doing a thing for a national office or position

if I'm wrong, I get to celebrate :unsmith:

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!
The 2020 GOP nominee will be Jeb!

The 46th President will be Jeb!



Please clap...

I won't be wrong but in the tragic event that Jeb! is assassinated or dies somehow and doesn't become POTUS I will donate $20 to the Georgia Sea Turtle Center.

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!
Whoops didn't read the thread well enough, you can change my punishment to an embarrassing avatar if the turtle one isn't allowed.

Trumps Baby Hands
Mar 27, 2016

Silent white light filled the world. And the righteous and unrighteous alike were consumed in that holy fire.
regardless of the thread rules, you still have an obligation as a man to help those turts for JEb!

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!
You're right, I will help the turtles :)

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
I'll take a $20 donation to a charity of op's choice and a 3 day probie that the AHCA will not become law

The Kingfish
Oct 21, 2015


Can I pick up a friendly month-long probe for exam season??

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

The Kingfish
Oct 21, 2015


I have no self control and I'm posting when I should be outlining.

El Mero Mero
Oct 13, 2001

Can I place a bet on Mike Flynn living to see 2018?

Jenner
Jun 5, 2011
Lowtax banned me because he thought I was trolling by acting really stupid. I wasn't acting.
My bet: If the Democrats manage to take back the Senate in 2018 the GOP will swiftly host a lame duck session to dissolve the nuclear option before the Democrats take office. If this does not happen I will donate $70 to whatever cause Lastgirl chooses.

If it does happen the Democrats will flail about ineffectually and not do poo poo because they won't nuclear the GOP back (because they're diaper wearing babies.)

Pooky
Aug 29, 2004

I post fox news so u don't have to 💋
$25 to ACLU:

Obamacare is fully repealed within the next four years, NO
Obamacare is partially repealed to any degree within the next four years, YES

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
I'll update the OP by the end of the weekend.

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
25 dollar donation to a charity of logik's choice (an actual good cause tho not like The Killing Dogs for Nazis Fund or something stupid, defauling to RAINN if he doesn't give me an answer) if marine le pen does not win the french presidential election

edit:

Marine Le Pen becomes the next President of France, YES

to make it simple

anime was right has issued a correction as of 19:24 on Apr 17, 2017

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
also yeah add melenchon to the list pls

slumdoge millionare
Feb 17, 2006

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer
it's kind of niche, but I'd like to suggest a betting line on the number of contempt of court charges Alex Jones will eat during his child custody hearings; I would set the over/under line at 2.5, but it's not my thread.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
List updated


Doomtalker posted:

it's kind of niche, but I'd like to suggest a betting line on the number of contempt of court charges Alex Jones will eat during his child custody hearings; I would set the over/under line at 2.5, but it's not my thread.

i don't know how over/under works so i'll just say "any contempt of court charges"


anime was right posted:

also yeah add melenchon to the list pls

yes


El Mero Mero posted:

Can I place a bet on Mike Flynn living to see 2018?

no

slumdoge millionare
Feb 17, 2006

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer

logikv9 posted:

List updated


i don't know how over/under works so i'll just say "any contempt of court charges"


yes


no

over means two or more charges, under means 1 or 0

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
why was it over/under 2.5, does the fraction mean anything or is it :thejoke:

slumdoge millionare
Feb 17, 2006

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer

logikv9 posted:

why was it over/under 2.5, does the fraction mean anything or is it :thejoke:

since you can't have half a charge, it prevents the bet from becoming null by the end number being the same as the over/under line.

im on the net me boys
Feb 19, 2017

Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjhhhhhhjhhhhhhhhhjjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh cannabis
I will give $20 to SPLC if Le Pen wins the French election
Ditto if it is Melenchon

slumdoge millionare
Feb 17, 2006

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer
Alex jones will eat a contempt charge, and I'll stake a day's probe on it

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Le Pen will NOT be elected President of France. $50 to ACLU wager.

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.
Lmao wrong thread

Chokes McGee has issued a correction as of 17:35 on May 1, 2017

slumdoge millionare
Feb 17, 2006

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer
No contempt for the fat deranged steroids man. Hit with that probe, fam. Just gently caress me up.

im on the net me boys
Feb 19, 2017

Hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhjhhhhhhjhhhhhhhhhjjjhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh cannabis

whomupclicklike posted:

I will give $20 to SPLC if Le Pen wins the French election
Ditto if it is Melenchon

Alright I am on a hot streak rn let's do some more bets:

Bet a 24 hour probe that Sean Spicer will be fired in the first term.
I bet $25 for RAINN that Bannon gets canned in the first term.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Vox Nihili posted:

Le Pen will NOT be elected President of France. $50 to ACLU wager.

Next one:

Donald Trump will NOT be impeached during his first term. $100 to ACLU wager.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Updated and added in the new AHCA pt2 for Senate and Law.

Added Pelosi primary challenger

logikv9 has issued a correction as of 02:55 on May 9, 2017

UHD
Nov 11, 2006


Betting my account and a $25 donation to the ACLU that Pelosi will win her primary.

I might make the donation anyway, for funsies.

SHY NUDIST GRRL
Feb 15, 2011

Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

I got a day on no Hillary or Bernie in 2020 but Booker does run

Gene Hackman Fan
Dec 27, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Proposition: Hillary 4 Prez 2020 (YES)
Wager: One day's probation.
Comment: If I'm wrong, I'll be using that day to celebrate and I doubt anyone would wanna see me posting in an inebriated state anyway.

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Oiled and Ready
Oct 11, 2004

He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...
How do i bet such that i will make money if Kushner is prosecuted

Surely that will affect at least one current market

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