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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Hello and welcome to the Reworked C-SPAM Prediction and Betting Thread.

In this NEWLY REWORKED 2.0 VERSION, the entire process has been simplified. There are no more markets, which mainly didn't make sense because there was no prize or benefit for "winning".

Now, you can make whatever "bet" you want regarding any politically-related event. You can "bet" anything from the following list which I have shamelessly copy-pasted:

$XX RAINN / ACLU donation
An embarrassing avatar that I will hand-pick for you from a list!
A probation (minimum 12 hours)
Forums Cancer for one week (possibly, if :radiumcode: breaks then this will translate to a week probation)
A ban (no permabans)

While you can structure your toxx / toxx-lite however you want, it is only in your best interest to be extremely clear and concise. If there is any vagueness in it, it is up to my discretion whether or not you "win".

Good Example: DONALD J TRUMP will NOT be impeached before the end of his first term: :thumbsup:
Bad Example: DONALD J TRUMP will NOT leave office. :smith: (this adds vagueness, do we count impeachment, does this technically mean that if he loses in 2020 and he transitions to the next president does that count, etc)






Hello all, and welcome to the C-SPAM Prediction and Betting thread. In this thread, we will give you a chance to back up your long-winded drive-thru orders with cold hard cashor something similar.

You can make predictions PredictIt-style but without any sort of actual tangible benefit to yourself (for now)! Here is a sample post.

quote:

I bet a $20 RAINN donation that Donald J. Trump will run for re-election in 2020.

If somebody makes this post, and then Donald Trump does not run for re-election in 2020 then they are required to donate $20 to RAINN. If he does run, then the bet is complete and they have won nothing. If they refuse to fulfill their end of the bargain, they will be banned.

It's fun, it's safe, and it's easy. It's completely optional obviously, and you can make such predictions ITT and discuss it amongst yourselves.

:siren: For now, the only bets you can make are on events that I will define and post. Look at the second post for current open events! You can only make a bet within these events. You cannot structure your own, for now. :siren:

An open event is an event where you can place a bet in. For example, An open event could be "Hillary Clinton running in 2020, YES or NO?" and you can bet accordingly. However, you can't go off and bet a probation that Bill Nye will run for God Emperor of Iowa, because I did not post that as an event and your bet will be ignored.

Rules - updated regularly
1. Once a prediction has been made, you CANNOT edit your post.
2. You cannot bet a permaban.
3. Probation bets must be structured within the current probation options (12 hours / 24 hours / 1 week / 1 month / 100,000 hours :getin:)

THE PUNISHMENT LIST
$XX RAINN / ACLU donation
An embarrassing avatar that I will hand-pick for you from a list!
A probation (minimum 12 hours)
Forums Cancer (possibly, if :radiumcode: breaks then this will translate to a week probation)
A ban (no permabans)

logikv9 has issued a correction as of 18:41 on Jul 29, 2017

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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Updated 4/18/17

CURRENT OPEN EVENTS
    Democratic - National
  • Andrew Cuomo will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Hillary Clinton will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Hillary Clinton will run for Mayor of NYC, YES or NO?
  • Cory Booker will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Chelsea Clinton will run for any national-level political office (defined as anything Congressional, Gubernatorial, or for President) in the next four years, YES or NO?
  • Bernie Sanders will run for President of the United States in 2020, YES or NO?

    Republican - National
  • Donald Trump will run for re-election and will be the Republican nominee for President in 2020, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump will be impeached within his first term, YES or NO?
  • The Piss Tape will be released within his first term, YES or NO?
  • Jeb!?? YEAH or HELL YEAH?
  • Reince leaves or is fired from his position as Chief of Staff within the first term, YES or NO?
  • Spicer leaves or is fired from his position as Press Secretary within the first term, YES or NO?
  • Bannon leaves or is fired from the White House within the first term, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump orders military action that directly kills an American citizen (again) in the next four years, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump's tax returns from within the last three years are released in its entirety, YES or NO?
  • The 2020 Presidential Election will occur at all, YES or NO?

    Legislative
  • Obamacare is fully repealed within the next four years, YES or NO?
  • Obamacare is partially repealed to any degree within the next four years, YES or NO?
  • The AHCA pt2 will pass the Senate, YES or NO?
  • The AHCA pt2 will become the law, YES or NO?

    Other (US)
  • Nancy Pelosi will lose to her Primary Challenger, YES or NO?

    FBI / Senate / House Investigation
  • Jared Kushner will be indicted or otherwise implicated in an investigation, YES or NO?
  • Michael Flynn will be indicted or otherwise implicated in an investigation, YES or NO?
  • Donald Trump will be implicated in an investigation, YES or NO?
  • Sessions will fire Mueller, YES or NO?

    United Kingdom
  • Brexit occurs within the next four years, YES or NO?

  • Military / World Events
  • The Wall, in any shape, or form, is built, YES or NO?
  • Mexico pays for the wall in any shape or form, YES or NO?
  • Direct military action will be taken against North Korea by the United States within the next four years, YES or NO?

OLD CLOSED EVENTS
[*]The AHCA will pass the Senate, YES or NO?
[*]The AHCA will pass the House, YES or NO?
[*]The AHCA will become the law, YES or NO?
[*]Marine Le Pen wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Marine Le Pen wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Marine Le Pen becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
[*]François Fillon wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]François Fillon wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]François Fillon becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
[*]Emmanuel Macron wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Emmanuel Macron wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Emmanuel Macron becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
[*]Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the first round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the second round of voting, YES or NO?
[*]Jean-Luc Mélenchon becomes the next President of France, YES or NO?
Alex Jones is held in contempt of court, YES or NO?

:siren:I don't see a bet I want to make! whine whine whine! :siren:
Please suggest it in the thread!

logikv9 has issued a correction as of 18:35 on Jul 29, 2017

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Also if you have suggestions for improvements let me know.

I wanted to include some sort of prize for "winning", but the issue is that the possible prize selection is rather limited and obviously it would be unfair to include the same prize for winning a bet that you were very unlikely to win vs one that was a shoe-in.

It's a work in progress.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

GodFish posted:

Not seeing any bets about us being alive/still having a democracy in 2020.

Maybe some non-us votes as well? Le Penn winning? Brexit actually happening, that kind of thing.

Added. I didn't initially want to add any of those because uh I don't know enough to structure a direct event but I think I pieced it together ok

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
I'll update the OP by the end of the weekend.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
List updated


Doomtalker posted:

it's kind of niche, but I'd like to suggest a betting line on the number of contempt of court charges Alex Jones will eat during his child custody hearings; I would set the over/under line at 2.5, but it's not my thread.

i don't know how over/under works so i'll just say "any contempt of court charges"


anime was right posted:

also yeah add melenchon to the list pls

yes


El Mero Mero posted:

Can I place a bet on Mike Flynn living to see 2018?

no

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
why was it over/under 2.5, does the fraction mean anything or is it :thejoke:

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Updated and added in the new AHCA pt2 for Senate and Law.

Added Pelosi primary challenger

logikv9 has issued a correction as of 02:55 on May 9, 2017

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Oiled and Ready posted:

How do i bet such that i will make money if Kushner is prosecuted

Surely that will affect at least one current market

added some about the investigation

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

change my name posted:

Hey mods, please toxx me for this post. Hillary will run in 2020 again, or at least put together an exploratory committee. She's just that awful.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

consumed by normies posted:

not sure why this needs to be stickied tbh

Yeah I need to keep this up to date badly

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
You get probed anyway because the market also included leave

Enjoy your freedom now before I file ur death

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Completely reworked the OP so you can do whatever the gently caress you want. I added a thing where vague bets are discouraged because otherwise I choose whether or not you fulfilled them and I'm always probation-happy!

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Also unstuck because it's definitely not important enough to keep at the top.

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logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Jeb! Repetition posted:

Why'd you get probated when all your predictions came true?



Rynn posted:

technically he resigned

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