MLB Newbie and Theory Thread: Rick and Tony take your calls

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB Newbie and Theory Thread: Rick and Tony take your calls

Ginette Reno: Nov 18, 2006; How Doers get more done; Fun Shoe

Elizabeth Mills posted:

I mean, hitters are very bad at going the other way, so until teams start fielding nine Ichiros that can pick their spot, I think the shift is still effective.

I'm reading Big Data Baseball right now, which is all about the Early 2010s Pirates, and they made a great point: If the shift means Prince Fielder can bunt down the third base line for an automatic single, that still means their big bopper is only hitting a single, and you've taken away their main weapon (the XBH) so you're still ahead

Isn't letting Prince bunt for a single all the time basically the same as intentionally walking him? iirc someone did the math and found out that as lethal as Barry Bonds was at his height it was still better to pitch to him than to give him a guaranteed walk every time he's got men on.

But the shift works because like you said most people can't hit the other way so the automatic single isn't really a threat. If a power hitter came up that had the ability and the willingness to bunt a single every time a shift was put on him it would be interesting to see if that changed the defensive team's strategy at all, though.

# ¿ Jan 4, 2018 19:06

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Ginette Reno: Nov 18, 2006; How Doers get more done; Fun Shoe

Elizabeth Mills posted:

Ok true Rick and Tony here, just finished Big Data Baseball so this has been on my mind:

Rick is a league-average pitcher with one very special skill: He gets 1 out via pickoff per start.

Tony is a league-average pitcher with a different special skill: Runners have a 0% basestealing rate against him, because magic reasons.

Who's the more valuable guy, the one who generates an extra 36-40 outs over the course of the season, or the guy who reduces the opposing run game to 0%?

If I did the numbers right just now the league average in steals this season was 84. So is Tony turning every steal attempt into an out? Because that would mean 84 extra outs, making the choice clear. Or is it just that base runners can't run on him, meaning they won't even try? That would mean 84 less extra base hits basically which I imagine would also still make him more valuable than the pick off guy.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2018 16:59

Ginette Reno: Nov 18, 2006; How Doers get more done; Fun Shoe

Good Dog posted:

84 over the whole season but Rick and Tony only play every 5 games so its more like 17. Rick gets 35 guaranteed extra outs he wouldn't otherwise get. League average pickoffs were 9 a year, so an average starter might get 2.

I'd say that Rick is more valuable. 1 pickoff per start is alot of extra outs. Having a baserunner never attempt to ever ever run on Tony would be 17 less times when a baserunner did not go from 1st base to 2nd base but depending on the base-outs matrix that might not matter. Also caught stealing average is 31 per team so Tony would be losing out on outs that he would have gotten had a baserunner attempted to steal but got caught.

All of this is also assuming that these starters are pitching complete games. Baserunners tend to go wild late in games with relief pitchers, 7th 8th and 9th innings have much larger SB% so those numbers we talk about (84SB, 31CS per team last season) had a larger amount in late game when Rick and Tony would be out of the game. Rick gets his 1 out per start no matter what, but Tony might just have baserunners wait until he is out of the game before attempting to steal.

^ Yeah that's true. My early morning lizard brain didn't factor in the 1 every 5 games factor.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2018 17:44

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