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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:Why is a HBP more valuable than a walk? They're both dead-ball plays where runners advance 1 (if obliged), aren't they? Is it the marginal value added that a pitcher who plunks too many guys gets thrown out and the opposing team has to go to the bullpen earlier? There are mathematical reasons why it turns out this way, even if practically it doesn't make a lot of sense. The wOBA constants are determined by linear weights. Meaning, how much the average instance of that event increases your team's probability of scoring (totally ignoring the batter and pitcher skills). I looked it up and it turns out pitchers are significantly more likely to hit batters when there are already runners on base. This increases your chances of scoring by a higher margin than with the bases empty. In 2016, unintentional walks happened 7.51% of the time with the bases empty, and 7.97% of the time with runners on. But a HBP happened 0.82% of the time with the bases empty, and 1.00% of the time with runners on. Proportionally, the difference was much bigger than it was for walks, so the average HBP turned out to be more impactful.
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Mar 24, 2017 06:01
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Abel Wingnut posted:hypothetical (and probably something a simulator can handle) Someone asked this on twitter a while back, where it was 9 Trouts vs 9 Bumgarners. Obviously they didn't consider what would happen if you put really slow, left-handed guys at shortstop and second base.
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Mar 25, 2017 03:14
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