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Opening Day for 2017 is Monday, April 3rd! Are you tangentially interested in baseball, but think it's very boring? (It isn't!) Do you have a team nearby, but don't know what to watch for? Are you a foreigner/space alien, trying to blend in? Ask your questions here! You can also ask theoretical questions!  There are no stupid questions! We love baseball and want you to love it too. It's a game rich in history, due to the nature of 1-on-1 matchups that allow us to create statistical models that can be compared over time, unique to the sport! The "Rick & Tony" bit in the title refers to an old thread that was just about spitballing hypothetical players who operate in one specific fashion (such as a player who only walked, struck out, or hit home runs) and how the league would react to them. Common Questions (I'll update this from time to time)  What happens if a team's plane crashes?  Rule 29 draft! What is a shift, and why does it work? The fielders move to the side players are likelier to hit towards, and it works because nobody teaches people to bunt anymore
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Mar 22, 2017 17:04
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| # ¿ Apr 27, 2024 23:42 |
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So here's something I've been mulling over: WARP is wrong The generally-accepted definition of WARP is "production you could get from any readily-available AAAA-player off any team's scrap-heap (a replacement-level player); the bare minimum that, if your team collectively posted 0.0 WARP, you would win ~62 games in a season" BUT! There are so, so many players in the league, making millions of dollars and posting year after year of 0.3 or less WARP, who continue to have jobs and veteran contracts, that I believe WARP is flawed and too low. There might not actually be players freely available for that cost-controlled, $475,000 contract that could easily produce 0.0 WARP for teams. If there were, no one would hire the world's Jed Lowries for $4m+. I propose WARP is revised upwards, to account for this, and thus a true replacement-level player should be much worse than currently they are considered. Thoughts?
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Mar 22, 2017 18:17
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"Wins Above Replacement (player)" is WAR/WARP. Essentially, there's an old saying that you will win 60 games and lose 60 games in a season no matter what, and the rest is what you're actually playing for. If you took scrubs and minor-league castoffs and had a 25-man roster of just-barely-major-league players, you'd have a 0.0 WAR team. They would win 60 games, just through luck. Those are your replacement-level players. If you added Mike Trout to that team, theoretically he is so damned good that he'd have enough games where he hit an extra home run and you'd win 70 games instead of 60. Stack up enough Mike Trouts, and you've got a 90-win playoff club. WAR has a couple ratings - batting and defensive. Generally, 10 runs created (via hitting HRs, getting on base to let others drive you in, etc) is worth about 1 win. So Mike Trout created an additional 102 runs the year he had 10.2 WAR. Making outs (via strikeout or hitting pop-ups the fielders catch for outs) is bad, and subtracts from the formula. So that's how Adam Dunn had a 40 homer season where he was a sub-1.0 WAR player. dWAR is calculated on a sliding scale, where the more work you do, at the more critical position, is worth more. So even though Mike Goldschmidt is pretty good at playing first base, he'd need 10 seasons of gold-glove play to come close to the value of a middling Shortstop or Catcher, just because of how much rarer elite skills at those positions are. Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Mar 22, 2017 |
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Mar 22, 2017 18:39
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E4C85D38 posted:Okay, new question: I don't think I quite "get" balks. I read through the rules, but then I see videos like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEmmenaEjOM and don't think I understand it in practice. I've seen a lot of pitchers delivering from the stretch just twitch their front leg like that before delivery and can't figure out when that's okay and when that's a balk. (Maybe it's just a bad angle to see movement towards home?) What sort of movement is disallowed in practice?
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Mar 23, 2017 06:49
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OK, here's the first "Rick and Tony" question of the new season! Rick and Tony are both equivalent defensively at the same position. They both slug .500. HOWEVER! Rick hits doubles (and only doubles) such that over 600 ABs, he bats .250, hitting 150 doubles, and otherwise strikes out/gets out on a fielded ball/walks at a league-average rate. Tony, on the other hand, ONLY hits Home Runs. Which means he carries a .125 BA over a full season, but hits 75 homers. Same "other outcomes" average. Which player is more valuable? (I know it's probably Tony because walking at a league-average rate would drive his OBP up farther since there are more PA's that aren't homers, but assume we control for that and say both men have an equivalent OBP, somehow)
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Mar 23, 2017 18:45
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cis autodrag posted:I think Tony still because when he hits those homers he will will always drive in at least one run, and every other baserunner ahead of him is guaranteed to score. Rick is not guaranteed to generate a run and hitting doubles leaves room for bad baserunning/slow runners ahead of him to result in fewer overall scores from his hits. 450 outs generated with a combination of strikeouts and fielded outs is still a LOT of outs to make. Adam Dunn hit 40 homers for a sub-1 WARP a few years ago, then followed it with 30 bombs for a sub-0 WARP. Edit:  (look at the years played)
Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Mar 23, 2017 |
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Mar 23, 2017 19:45
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tadashi posted:If you're essentially saying their basic stats are similar other than the fact that one of them does it via HR and one of them does it via doubles then you can estimate it via weighted runs created. WRC takes batting outcomes and weighs them against the league to figure out how much each outcome is worth in a various season. Here are the values for last year: Shrecknet fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Mar 23, 2017 |
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Mar 23, 2017 21:37
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Heresy time! I was taught this by goon Skaboomizzy: When you're keeping score of a game at a ballpark, set up your scorecard as VISITOR BATTERS | HOME BATTERS ------------------------------------------------------------- HOME PITCHERS | VISITOR PITCHERS So that you can easily add up the batting stats on the same page and jot them in below, rather than flip back and forth.
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Mar 24, 2017 14:14
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tadashi posted:Wouldn't you also be giving Trout lots of free steals on third base because of the extra time associated with throwing to third as a left handed catcher? Can't steal third if you strike out 25 times a game because Mike Trout can't handle pitching up in the zone.
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Mar 27, 2017 17:02
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TheShazbot posted:The closest MLB team to me is in Seattle, and I have a A-Short Season team locally. (Hillsboro Hops) I cannot state how exponentially cheaper it is to see a minor-league team. If you've never been before, you can sit right next to the dugout for less than $20, whereas being in the bleachers behind centerfield at Safeco is like $35, and next to the dugout is $600 a ticket and there aren't any tickets because those seats are all owned by companies. It depends on if you want to spoil yourself, like sitting in first class. But seeing minor leaguers up close is way better IMO (and cheaper)
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Mar 28, 2017 20:19
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Who has the worst season, by WAR, in the last 25 years. It's gotta be Adam Dunn 2011, right? What would a -5 WAR season look like?
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Apr 24, 2017 22:40
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El Gallinero Gros posted:Edit: Read your question wrong, the actual answer is Cristian Guzman in '99 with 3.1. '11 Dunn is 4th with 2.9, Jose Guillen in '97 and Dave McCarty in '93 were all tied with 3.1. I feel like Tommy Thevenow (who, despite being named Thieve Now, stole just 1 base)'s 1930 season might be worse, just because he had 70 more at bats that could've gone to better players. Also, he did it with a .300 BABIP, while the other guys got pretty unlucky.
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Apr 24, 2017 23:54
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Were the 116 win Mariners that good? Do their individual player evaluations bear that out? Same question, but in reverse for that Tigers team that saw Steve Sparks set the modern era Losses record
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May 29, 2017 23:39
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Chexoid posted:Is Randy Johnson exploding that bird with a pitch in 2001 the most unlikely thing that's ever happened in sports? If it's not number one it's gotta be up there right? I mean, a major league pitch is in the air for on average, what, a tenth of a second? Probably less with Randy Johnson. The idea that an unthinking animal could randomly intersect with the ball at that exact moment is mind boggling to me. I can't even remember another time where a bird has even flown close to that area in baseball, let alone right at that exact height. You could play baseball for a million years and never see that happen again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsVy6c8QGAw
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Jun 6, 2017 04:07
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Happy Bobby Bonilla Day everyone! In honor of this epic day, can anyone talk about why baseball contracts are so weird (not the 'no-salary-cap' thing, that's awesome)? Like, players getting straight-up traded for cash, or a bag of baseballs? And why players can't (or aren't?) be traded for draft picks?
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Jul 1, 2017 18:27
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OK so this is more a newbie discussion topic than a question, but: What stats are the best to look at to get a holistic view of a player, specificially, which stats do you think have the most predictive (signal how the player will perform in the future) value? Is it OBP? Homers? fielding-independent ERA? what one thing could you point at on a player's baseball card and go "based on the last three years of <<this>>, player X will do great next year, barring injury or acute steve blass disease?
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Aug 10, 2017 02:00
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Peanut President posted:stats are never predictive. then why are there scouts? and stats guys?
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Aug 10, 2017 03:27
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Yaws posted:Sweet mother of gently caress does Kershaw equal the pitchers I mentioned? This is the newbie thread you dumb bitch. I don't know who is better than who. 98-01 Pedro > Kershaw > other Pedro > all other pitchers
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Sep 9, 2017 10:03
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exploded mummy posted:Daddy why is Mr Met giving us the finger Still don't understand how they suspended him for that, it's exceptionally on-brand for a guy from Queens.
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Sep 17, 2017 02:37
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Currently, when a baserunner in a baseball game reaches base via a fielding error, if he eventually scores, it is not an "Earned Run" charged to the pitcher, and does not effect his ERA. This is generally fine; if the player would've been out but a fielder bobbles the catch, then yeah, that makes sense. BUT! The pitcher is also a fielder (1 on your scorecard), and if the pitcher makes an error in the field that allows the runner to reach base, it should be an earned run on that pitcher's record. This is not currently the case, the pitcher and "the fielder in the 1 spot" are treated as totally different people by statisticians. However, fielding your position is *part of the game*, and if you can't chase down a chopper or get the ball to first in a timely manner, you are just as much a detriment to your team as if you allowed a base hit. The rules should be changed so that runs that reach on a pitcher's fielding error are credited to that pitcher. Change my view.
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Oct 24, 2017 16:40
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Any truth to the conspiracy theory that MLB juiced the WS balls? Or is the Astros lineup just full of grown-rear end men who can hit the poo poo out of a baseball?
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Nov 6, 2017 05:50
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Home plate, as laid out by the rules, cannot physically exist. Per rule 2.02: quote:Home base shall be marked by a five-sided slab of whitened rubber. It shall be a 17-inch square with two of the corners removed so that one edge is 17 inches long, two adjacent sides are 8½ inches and the remaining two sides are 12 inches and set at an angle to make a point. It shall be set in the ground with the point at the intersection of the lines extending from home base to first base and to third base; with the 17-inch edge facing the pitcher’s plate, and the two 12-inch edges coinciding with the first and third base lines. 122 + 122 = 288 root of 288 = 16.97" So either home plate should be 16.97" wide instead of 17" or the two sides that form the tip of the plate should be 12.02" instead of 12". Now, you may ask: "Is this based off the angle of the tip being 90 degrees? Because, what if its not? Woah" Whoa indeed. So to show that it would, in fact, have to be 90 degrees, I went to the rulebook again. Per rule 2.01: (1.04) The infield shall be a 90-foot square. Since the 12-inch edges have to coincide with the first and third base lines, this would mandate a 90 degree angle. When location of home base is determined, with a steel tape measure 127 feet, 3 3/8 inches in desired direction to establish second base. From home base, measure 90 feet toward first base; from second base, measure 90 feet toward first base; the intersection of these lines establishes first base. From home base, measure 90 feet toward third base; from second base, measure 90 feet toward third base; the intersection of these lines establishes third base. The distance between first base and third base is 127 feet, 3 3⁄8 inches. All measurements from home base shall be taken from the point where the first and third base lines intersect. Innocent enough, right? NO. Let's turn to the Pythagorean theorem again. 902 + 902 = 16,200 = c2 c = 127.279220613578554'. But the rules mandate that c should be 127', 3 3/8", which is 127.28125'. We're looking at a difference between 127', 3 3/8" (per the rule) and 127 3 7/20". Meaning that second base, if the diamond is in fact a true square, is 0.024352637 inches TOO CLOSE to home plate to coincide with the rules. So what if we just adjust the 90' distances to align second base up with the 127.28125' requirement? 127.281252 = 16200.5166015625 = a2 + b2 8100.25830078125 = a2 90.0014349929 = a, meaning the basepaths should be 90' and 14/10000th of an inch. Our baseball lives are lies. As it is, there cannot physically exist a perfectly square infield consisting of 90' basepaths and a distance of 127' 3 3/8" between home and second and first and third.
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Jan 4, 2018 05:28
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I mean, hitters are very bad at going the other way, so until teams start fielding nine Ichiros that can pick their spot, I think the shift is still effective. I'm reading Big Data Baseball right now, which is all about the Early 2010s Pirates, and they made a great point: If the shift means Prince Fielder can bunt down the third base line for an automatic single, that still means their big bopper is only hitting a single, and you've taken away their main weapon (the XBH) so you're still ahead
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Jan 4, 2018 19:01
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So we are now 10 years into Pitch/fx data, and there's still no movement on computerized balls and strikes yet, right? It wouldn't even mean less ump jobs, you'd still need someone behind home plate for handing out new balls and making safe/out calls at home and such, but I wonder... Do players want a perfectly fair and exact strike zone? If Blustery Idiot ump is giving you an extra foot on the left side, wouldn't you want that as a pitcher? If you're being paid for your pitch-framing skills as a catcher, wouldn't you hate having that skill essentially eliminated from your skill set? Still, I can't help but think "getting the call right" remains the most important thing.
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Jan 5, 2018 00:16
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Defensively, the difference between anything short of Goldschmidt at 1st and the DH is negligible. There is no "DH skill set" other than "tattoos the gently caress out of any baseball he sees"
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Jan 6, 2018 04:59
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Ok true Rick and Tony here, just finished Big Data Baseball so this has been on my mind: Rick is a league-average pitcher with one very special skill: He gets 1 out via pickoff per start. Tony is a league-average pitcher with a different special skill: Runners have a 0% basestealing rate against him, because magic reasons. Who's the more valuable guy, the one who generates an extra 36-40 outs over the course of the season, or the guy who reduces the opposing run game to 0%?
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Jan 11, 2018 12:16
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Rick and Tony are actually Mark Buehrle and Pudge Rodriguez
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Jan 12, 2018 17:26
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| # ¿ Apr 27, 2024 23:42 |
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tadashi posted:My favorite Verlander fun fact is he attempts more pick-offs than almost anyone and almost never gets anyone. At least, last I checked. This is not a fun stat to track down. That's not very fun at all!
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Jan 12, 2018 20:00
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