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Figured this is good to bring up. New rules for 2017: Stricter balk rules, No pitch intentional walks, and play review time limits
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Mar 22, 2017 17:51
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:So here's something I've been mulling over: WARP is wrong Dave Cameron looked at it a few years back and there was only 1 player in the last 30 years who made it to 6,000 plate appearances while having a career fWAR below 0 and that guy had a run of several seasons around average so it was understandable why teams kept hiring him. The way financials are setup in baseball is to reward veteran players who make it to free agency and free agency money is heavily set by what you've done. Jed Lowrie can get $4M because there are so many pre-arb players making roughly the league minimum leaving teams tons of money to spend and because that's what it costs if you want to sign a free agent who has proven he can hang at the major league level. Teams are willing to pay the extra money because it's a better risk than some guy who's barely ever played above AAA. Lowrie, in particular, was once a very solid middle infielder so his past stats indicate that the market should definitely pay him above the minimum. He's also made enough money that he could just walk away if a team doesn't want to do that (see Angel Pagan right now) so he's got a lot of leverage. If Jose Bautista is worth $18 million and you pay him $20, you're not really overpaying. you're paying the $18 million he's worth and an extra $2 million to make the Orioles or the Indians worse. You're pay the extra 2 so that you get to remove the extra 2 or 3 WAR from your rival team since they will hopefully be forced to use a lesser player in his stead. The Pussy Boss posted:Hi I'm a baseball newbie and my question is, what the heck is "WAR"? I found this website called Baseball Reference and it said Mike Trout had 10.6 "WAR" last year. Could someone explain how that is calculated, and walk me through how they got to that 10.6 number from his raw stats? Thanks  nice try, hoss.tadashi fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Mar 22, 2017 |
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Mar 22, 2017 18:58
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:OK, here's the first "Rick and Tony" question of the new season! If you're essentially saying their basic stats are similar other than the fact that one of them does it via HR and one of them does it via doubles then you can estimate it via weighted runs created. WRC takes batting outcomes and weighs them against the league to figure out how much each outcome is worth in a various season. Here are the values for last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=cn wBB - .691 wHBP - .721 w1B - .878 w2B - 1.242 w3B - 1.569 wHR - 2.015 150 * 1.242 = 186.3 75 * 2.015 = 151.125 So my guess is that, all things being equal, Rick would end up more valuable hitter according to wrc/wRC+ in the context of 2016 scoring environment. It looks to me, just skimming that table I linked, I can't see a year where it looks like it would be different. If anybody is better with stats, I'd love to hear another explanation. E: If anyone is into these sort of weird baseball hypotheticals (or questions like how good would Clayton Kershaw be if he added a knuckleball), I cannot recommend the Effecively Wild podcast enough. It's very well made and entertaining. tadashi fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Mar 23, 2017 |
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Mar 23, 2017 20:53
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:Why is a HBP more valuable than a walk? They're both dead-ball plays where runners advance 1 (if obliged), aren't they? Is it the marginal value added that a pitcher who plunks too many guys gets thrown out and the opposing team has to go to the bullpen earlier? HBP is basically a skill so players with lots of HBP are exploiting a rarely used tactic. You can demonstrate that some players are better at it, so it gets weighed according to how rare it is and how often a player does it so it ends up "more valuable" than a BB because some players are better at it than others. Also HBP happen so infrequently that it being more valuable than a regular BB by .3% (.003) isn't that big of a deal. It is kind of funny, though.
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Mar 24, 2017 00:33
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Thanks for the correct answer, McFreeze.
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Mar 24, 2017 14:12
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Ice To Meet You posted:Someone asked this on twitter a while back, where it was 9 Trouts vs 9 Bumgarners. Obviously they didn't consider what would happen if you put really slow, left-handed guys at shortstop and second base. Wouldn't you also be giving Trout lots of free steals on third base because of the extra time associated with throwing to third as a left handed catcher?
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Mar 27, 2017 15:24
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Thought this might be the best place to post this: The shift might be bad. Russell Carleton crunched the numbers and it looks like you need a hitter to pull the ball 3x more often for the shift to break even and, also, the shift leads to the kind of ungodly numbers you'd expect when a hitter does hit the other way. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36897/baseball-therapy-shift-persists/ I wonder what data teams have that might counter this argument. There must be a reason why everybody's doing it since the math he's doing isn't exactly revolutionary and the teams that started the shift revolution are the teams who invest a lot on stats.
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Jan 4, 2018 18:01
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Ginette Reno posted:Isn't letting Prince bunt for a single all the time basically the same as intentionally walking him? iirc someone did the math and found out that as lethal as Barry Bonds was at his height it was still better to pitch to him than to give him a guaranteed walk every time he's got men on. Overall, the finding in the article is that runs scored due to power lost due to the shift outweighs the runs generated thanks to hitting the ball the other way (and players are hitting the ball the other way or up the middle more often vs. the shift). Unfortunately, walks go up against the shift so the run value is a net negative based on Carleton's estimates. What he's arguing is you should really only shift against players like Bonds (or, in today's game, Rizzo) if it means you can sap their power because they're trying to beat the shift. What it means is that simple spray charts don't tell you who to shift on (also in the article). quote:But that’s the surprising story of The Shift. It’s a psychological ploy for which both sides actually fall, perhaps without knowing it. And that’s why it persists.
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Jan 4, 2018 21:17
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ego symphonic posted:Because pitching and hitting are two completely distinct skills and the probability of a single person being good enough at both of them to excel at the major league level is vanishingly small. It's not that pitchers could be better at hitting if they just practiced more. I think the DH isn't just an ingame concept, either. It allows hitters who are really amazing at their craft to stick around the league longer and allows for some players to get into the big leagues when they would normally be blocked because the stereotypical DH can really only play first base. It also allows for more versatility in the positional player side of an AL roster construction (since you can rotate players through the DH spot to give them days off or rest). The concept of the DH was proposed to increase offense, which fans seem to like a lot more than watching pitchers hit and, as far as I can tell, history has proved that fans like more offense. There's a nice summary of the history of the DH here: http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/american-league-adopts-designated-hitter-rule
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Jan 11, 2018 16:14
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3DHouseofBeef posted:
That's what I keep coming back to. If he was on pace for 30+ pick-offs in a season, he'd be almost 20% of the way to the career record after just 1 season. People wouldn't risk running on him after that first year.
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Jan 11, 2018 18:02
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My favorite Verlander fun fact is he attempts more pick-offs than almost anyone and almost never gets anyone. At least, last I checked. This is not a fun stat to track down.
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Jan 12, 2018 19:58
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