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ColdBlooded
Jul 15, 2001

Ask me how to run a good team into the ground.
Probably the most important post in this thread, the 2017 San Diego Padres

Synopsis:

The Padres offense should actually be pretty fun, or at least it'll be interesting to watch, since outside of Erick Aybar, it's all young(ish) guys who have some upside. As usual, their numbers will be somewhat suppressed by Petco, leading to people (not necessarily on here) decrying how bad their offense is when, as usual, it's their starting pitching that is very very bad. The bullpen has a couple of guys returning who were very good last year,and, assuming Carter Capps' delivery isn't deemed illegal at some point, could be as good or even a bit better this year.

C - Austin Hedges:
Hedges' defense was deemed MLB ready when he was drafted back in 2011, the question was always going to be his bat. He hasn't hit in his MLB cup of coffee thus far and his minor league numbers aren't great either, though he did put up good numbers in the PCL last year (lol). I'm not expecting much offensively, but considering he'll be replacing Derek Norris' 400+ ABs of .186/.255/.328 from last year, the bar for improvement isn't terribly high.

1B - Wil Myers
Myers had a very solid season last year, though he did tail off somewhat over the 2nd half of the year. Perhaps more importantly, he was able to stay healthy and the Padres gave him a 6 year extension during the off season, making him the ~face of the franchise~ for the foreseeable future.

2B Yangervis Solarte
Solarte is a very solid, versatile player who quietly put up a .286/.341/.467 line last year after beginning to show some improvement in 2015. His wife passed away from cancer late last season :(

SS Erick Aybar
I don't understand why he's even on the team. Aybar has never been particularly good and even if he flukes a couple of non-terrible months to start the season, it's not like San Diego would get a prospect of any value back in a trade. He's basically Alexei Ramirez 2.0 (gently caress Alexei Ramirez). What's even more puzzling is that Luis Sardinas had a solid 150 AB stint late last year for the Padres and is a former top 100 prospect who maybe (not likely) started to figure poo poo out and now he's relegated to backing Aybar up.

3B Ryan Schimpf
A career minor leaguer with the Blue Jays up until 2016. The Padres signed him a minor league contract and he got a shot halfway through the year because all of San Diego's 2B were either hurt or garbage; he then proceeded to hit 20 HRs in 276 ABs. I think it's somewhat likely that he craters fairly hard but if you like TTO guys, then Schimpf is your man.

RF Hunter Renfroe
Renfroe hit 4 HR in 35 ABs during his late season call up last year. The power is very legit, he's the first guy to hit a HR OVER the Western Metal building during a game at Petco, but he likely won't walk very much which could limit his usefulness, however he'll get every chance to prove himself.

CF - Manuel Margot
I'm not as high on Margot as some others are but he still acquitted himself well in the PCL last year as a 20 year old. He's an elite defender, seems to steal bases pretty efficiently and has a pretty good idea on the strike zone. Could become a very good leadoff hitter in the next year or two. He'll likely go back down to AAA once Alex Dickerson gets healthy.

LF - Travis Jankowski / Alex Dickerson
Jankowski is the ideal 4th or 5th OF. He's excellent defensively, can play all 3 OF spots, has elite speed and can draw some walks. He also has zero power and strikes out way too much for the type of hitter he is.
I probably like Dickerson way more than I should but he's a guy that's hit at every level of the minors and put up a respectable .257/.333/.455 line in 253 MLB ABs last season. He's out with an injury for the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season; once he comes back I imagine Jankowski will move to CF, giving Dickerson the LF job while Margot gets more time in AAA.

Pitching

The rotation consists of Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard, Luis Perdomo, Trevor Cahill and Jered Weaver. The sad part is, this is likely to be a better rotation than what San Diego was running out for the last two months last season, though having said that, this year's group is obviously pretty terrible. Also, knowing the Padres' luck, all 5 pitchers will spend significant time on the DL thus rendering them untradeable, while they bring back Jeff Suppan, Kip Wells and anyone else who's capable of throwing a baseball. Perdomo actually performed decently in the 2nd half of last season, especially considering he was a rule 5 pick, so at least it'll be fun watching his continued development.

The important guys in their bullpen are Brandon Maurer, Brad Hand, Ryan Buchter and Carter Capps. Capps will start the season on the DL, while Maurer is the ~closer~ with Hand and Buchter as the (hopefully still) dominant 7th and 8th inning guys that can be flipped at the deadline. Overall, the bullpen could be pretty good though the talent level is pretty thin after the 4 pitchers mentioned above.

:siren: It should also be mentioned that Christian Bettancourt is going to be a two way player, pitching both out of the bullpen while playing some OF and possibly some C if the need arises. At the very least, that could be pretty cool to watch. Also, the Padres have three Rule 5 guys on the roster which kind of owns, even if it's not likely that they'll all stick.

Conclusion

After being in 76ish win hell for a number of seasons, the Padres are embracing the tank and have restocked their farm system with a lot of talent, both by trades and by spending an obscene amount of money in last season's international market. As a result, the next 2 or 3 years could be pretty rough but the Padres could be legit contenders by 2020 if all goes well. Either way, I'm completely ok with the current state of the team and Preller has done a good job of tearing down the underachieving 2015 team he built, as well as moving on and cutting loose some of his mistakes (oh hello Matt Kemp). This year's team will do well to win 70 games, but i'll go out on a limb and say they don't lose 100.

ColdBlooded fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Apr 3, 2017

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ColdBlooded
Jul 15, 2001

Ask me how to run a good team into the ground.

ColdBlooded posted:

but i'll go out on a limb and say they don't lose 100.

*Looks at today's boxscore* ....poo poo

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