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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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If Adani had just been given the go ahead years ago then we could have just directed all the flood waters into the pit and avoided the current disaster. loving greenies ruin everything.

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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Nuke everything to ensure maximum returns imo.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Lid posted:

Greens Splits, no longer just for NSW

God damnit you loving idiots.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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JBP posted:

I wouldn't worry about this small group of idealistic young people getting in the way, the greens will be the neoliberal party du jour with the inner city rich folks that don't like dirty industry soon enough.

It's more that they are too stupid to figure out that screaming about destroying capitalism is a bad way to go about promoting their economic point of view (no matter how correct hey are). It completely ignores the social context that they exist in and the fact that most people will consider them crackpots due to the way they've framed their argument.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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A few pages old but:

Quantum Mechanic posted:

You can think talking about smashing capitalism is ineffective (it's not that ineffective in my local area, people are way less attached to capitalism than the Liberals would have you believe) but the Greens need to reorient to some radical and visionary policy. Free education, basic income, re-nationalise the job service, direct Federal investment into publicly-owned renewable energy. Stop privatisation, fund public housing, etc. This small-target bullshit on market mechanisms for climate, tune the levers on taxation a bit and oh introduce a sugar tax is just simply not working and we're going to keep slowly bleeding away.

You are right that the Greens need to reorient themselves and those are all good policies. But trying to sell them by talking about smashing capitalism or whole sale economic system change is doomed to fail in my opinion. It'll scare people off without them engaging with the policy. Just talk about why they are good policies, what they are fixing, and just leave the end goal (smashing capitalism) out of it.

You don't start off a convo with people in your local area by saying "Hey, what do you think about the idea of smashing capitalism?" do you?

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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gay picnic defence posted:

There was a column on the ABC that pointed out that because such a significant proportion of property owners are investors now the traditional ideas about what might cause a crash may not apply. For example, investors don't consider an investment property a home that you try and hold onto until you can't afford to pay the mortgage, for them it's about the same as a bunch of shares and if they think it isn't going to increase in value any more they sell and put their money elsewhere. If they see a scheme that grandfathers NG, and think it will cause house prices to stagnate and then slowly fall, they'll try to get in ahead and sell before they have to sit through 3 years of their asset not growing.

Which is why I wonder if the bigger, institutional investors might be quietly moving their property on. We came within a whisker of having a Labor government who promised to grandfather NG in power, the polls are even worse now and blind freddy can see that negative gearing/CGTD is blowing up into a huge political issue which may not survive past the next election. Private investors may have drank too deeply from the koolaid for all this to register but maybe some of the bigger investors are taking a more objective view of it (or will soon). It's one thing to ignore APRA's and the RBA's warnings but once the ratings agencies and international banks start weighing in it might start to sink in that there is a bit of a problem brewing.

Yeah, it's dangerous to underestimate how dramatically investor sentiment can swing. Negative gearing only works if prices are going up and sentiment is that they will continue to go up for the time being. If something triggers a switch in how people view the market then it could all come crashing down very quickly. Once it starts it'll be a self perpetuating cycle as it hits the wider economy which in turn forces more people to sell and further drives prices and the economy down.

Of course, I have no idea what the trigger will be or when it will happen but the most recent monthly growth figures (19% in Sydney and 15% for Melbourne) are so ridiculous that I feel we are closer to the end than ever before.


I don't have the time to compare that to current property price graphs but I'd hazard a guess and say we are well into the delusion stage (with the brief period after the GFC where prices declined being the first sell off).

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Nibbles! posted:

The difference with standard bubbles and our property market is that it isn't the inflated market itself people are trying to cash in on, it's the tax implications that are driving them to do it.

Ours started out with the public cashing in, it was anyone with equity and tax to minimise that benefited from negative gearing.

For the market to crash you need, for whatever reason, more people desperate to sell than there are buyers. At best negative gearing will be grandfathered meaning there's no reason to sell, investers will leave the market and all the desperate homebuyers will keep buying at whatever prices are.

Anything that causes prices and/or sentiment to fall will put real pressure on investors regardless of the tax benefits they get.

This is largely due to the fact that without increases in value negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions quickly lose their appeal. There's no point in being able to reduce your tax by 10k a year if you are losing 20k a year in capital value. More so with rental yields being so low. Additionally, around 40% of investors (who make up something like 40-50% of all lending for property) are using interest only loans. That only increases the markets reliance on capital gains. When the capital gains stop and sentiment shifts then the investors will get out and the bubble will burst.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-21/cba-raises-home-loan-rates-again/8461746

quote:

Australia's biggest lender, the Commonwealth Bank, has raised home loans again, for the second time in less than a month.

The new rates affect a variety of fixed-rate mortgages — both for owner occupier and investors — with some of the rises of 0.5 percentage points, double the standard move from the Reserve Bank.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Solemn Sloth posted:

lol the Feds housing affordability policy is going to be releasing commonwealth land for residential development and exempting boomers from their house sales affecting pensions or super :allears:

Oh god they are so loving dumb. Any chance you have a link to the source of this horrible news?

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Solemn Sloth posted:

yeah, the 120 ha one they talked about is an old munitions factory so god loving knows the state of the soil there.

Turn it into a gated community for LNP voters and politicians imo. Force them to eat only food grown on the property.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Comstar posted:

I am so very happy that we have men of this talent running our country.

Don't worry, the ATO is making up for the RBA's incompetence:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-22/no-evidence-on-multinational-tax-evasion,-ato-says/8462560

quote:

The Australian Tax Office (ATO) has declared there is little evidence of multinational tax evasion, despite several major international cases.

Technology giant Oracle and Credit Suisse are among the major companies that have been fined for breaking overseas tax laws.

But in Australia, the ATO thinks there is little proof multinational corporations are evading their tax obligations, according to a freedom of information (FOI) investigation.

"We have not seen significant evidence of large multinationals involved in tax evasion," the agency wrote in a letter to the ABC.

In the past year, it has not conducted any reviews or reports into the issue and is not considering any measures or policies to deal with tax evasion, according to the letter.

Well I'm glad they cleared that one up for us. It's nice to know we can trust multinational corporations to do the right thing!

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Warning Australia to not blindly follow the US into conflict is probably good advice. Is North Korea smarter than recent Australian governments?

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Source please.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Tokamak posted:

Bad debt is spending money to make sure people aren't starving or dying. I can't imagine what good debt is.

Roads.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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DancingShade posted:

If you aren't learning then you're earning.

*looks at small child too young for school, clearly mooching off it's primary provider (parent)*

Hmm hey kid. You look like you're ready to work a metal press. You like buttons right? It's got lots of buttons.

Seize all baby toys and sell them to help fund budget repair. It's only fair, they haven't done anything to help with the budget crisis so far.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Also, the outer suburbs today are exactly the same, and in no way worse, than the outer suburbs 30+ years ago.

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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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racing identity posted:

Essendon was an outer suburbs when these dipshits were buying their first house

Don't forget all those struggling boomers that had to move all the way out to Bentleigh.

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