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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

socialsecurity posted:

I know after we elected Obama to be dictator he should of had all of congress killed so he could of passed everything he wanted with no restrictions.

no choice but to put Timothy Geithner, King of the Vampires, in charge of the treasury

hands were just tied, real shame about that


pictured: no seriously we couldn't have put any strings on the financial industry bailout, that would have been communism

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Apr 20, 2017

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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ze Pollack posted:

no choice but to put Timothy Geithner, King of the Vampires, in charge of the treasury

hands were just tied, real shame about that

we had make a count elector so he'd bring his undead bankers to fight the tea party

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Typo posted:

we had make a count elector so he'd bring his undead bankers to fight the tea party

a strategy predicated on the loyalty of the financial industry to the Democratic Party out of gratitude was certainly at no point recognizable as doomed to failure

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ze Pollack posted:

a strategy predicated on the loyalty of the financial industry to the Democratic Party out of gratitude was certainly at no point recognizable as doomed to failure

lol no poo poo even if they do stay loyal it's entirely questionable if they are a plus or a minus at this point: Hillary lost in no small part because of her secret speeches to goldman sucks

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Typo posted:

lol no poo poo even if they do stay loyal it's entirely questionable if they are a plus or a minus at this point: Hillary lost in no small part because of her secret speeches to goldman sucks

It's the single biggest thing you can lay at Obama's feet; Operation gently caress Over Every Mortgage Owner In America To Cover The Finance Industry's rear end took Hillary's financial industry ties from standard operating procedure for a New York politician to an utterly radioactive unforced error.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ze Pollack posted:

It's the single biggest thing you can lay at Obama's feet; Operation gently caress Over Every Mortgage Owner In America To Cover The Finance Industry's rear end took Hillary's financial industry ties from standard operating procedure for a New York politician to an utterly radioactive unforced error.

tbf a bunch of mortgage holders actually did get bailed out as part of tarp

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Typo posted:

tbf a bunch of mortgage holders actually did get bailed out as part of tarp

Couple of them, at first. Then you had the "shadow bailout," wherein the DoJ politely agreed to prosecute Literally Noone in the financial industry for falsifying mortgage documentation.

Engendered some hostility among mortgage owners, that.

RasperFat
Jul 11, 2006

Uncertainty is inherently unsustainable. Eventually, everything either is or isn't.

JosephWongKS posted:

This seems like a good summation of Obama's mistaken priorities with regards to bailing out the banks.

I think Obama's handling of this was terrible and is part of ongoing resentment, but this article reminded me how one sided criticism is still in the media.

I agree with the analysis and WaPo is supposed to be left leaning and is criticizing Trump and Republicans, but these sort of think pieces examining why Democrats fail seem to be almost completely absent for Republicans.

The GOP in its entirety has been a dumpster fire for decades. They've literally done almost nothing but hurt their constituents and districts with terrible budgeting and lovely tax laws. They invoke bigotry commonly and are terrible at wars and emergency responses.

They've practically been operating as cartoon villains since the 90s but somehow there's always more words printed about how the Democrats need to be better.

I mean I want the Dems to pull left and be more successful too, but seriously how have we allowed this false equivalency to continue for so long?

Condiv
May 7, 2008

Sorry to undo the effort of paying a domestic abuser $10 to own this poster, but I am going to lose my dang mind if I keep seeing multiple posters who appear to be Baloogan.

With love,
a mod


Ze Pollack posted:

Couple of them, at first. Then you had the "shadow bailout," wherein the DoJ politely agreed to prosecute Literally Noone in the financial industry for falsifying mortgage documentation.

Engendered some hostility among mortgage owners, that.

this was what pissed me off so much

these assholes are slavishly devoted to the law when it comes to the poor and middle class. can't do the time, don't do the crime and all that. but when the rich break the laws? and hurt millions of people? we gotta take it easy on them or all the jobs will evaporate

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

RasperFat posted:

I think Obama's handling of this was terrible and is part of ongoing resentment, but this article reminded me how one sided criticism is still in the media.

I agree with the analysis and WaPo is supposed to be left leaning and is criticizing Trump and Republicans, but these sort of think pieces examining why Democrats fail seem to be almost completely absent for Republicans.

The GOP in its entirety has been a dumpster fire for decades. They've literally done almost nothing but hurt their constituents and districts with terrible budgeting and lovely tax laws. They invoke bigotry commonly and are terrible at wars and emergency responses.

They've practically been operating as cartoon villains since the 90s but somehow there's always more words printed about how the Democrats need to be better.

I mean I want the Dems to pull left and be more successful too, but seriously how have we allowed this false equivalency to continue for so long?

The Democrats ned to be better, because when the Democrats are poo poo the GOP gets to burn down the country for 4-8 years.

Basically you're confusing legitimate criticism with a false equivalency.

RasperFat
Jul 11, 2006

Uncertainty is inherently unsustainable. Eventually, everything either is or isn't.

Cerebral Bore posted:

The Democrats ned to be better, because when the Democrats are poo poo the GOP gets to burn down the country for 4-8 years.

Basically you're confusing legitimate criticism with a false equivalency.

False equivalency isn't the right term for it, maybe slanted framing? The media spends roughly equal time criticizing Dems and Republicans (Most of the time, the last couple months of Trump have been too much of a circus to ignore). Even if the Dem criticisms are legitimate, it's still insanity because the Republicans have everything that's terrible about the Dems, plus gilded age levels of corruption and unprecedented incompetence. Republican controlled districts become shittier at a rate approaching 100%.

The Dems have serious issues, but that's because they're trying to corral 60-70% of the country under one banner and that's a wide range of opinions. The Republicans have a rabid insane base of 20% of the country plus greedy middle class people suckered by their FYGM philosophies. They would likely end up better off financially with Dems in charge, but the Republicans showboat them keeping a few nickels instead of wise public investments that help everyone including of them.

The problem is only half the country votes so that 20% base makes up 40% of the actual votes cast and they always vote R even if they hate the candidate.

The media still somehow presents voting like it's a real choice when you have literally insane and destructive party or a flawed party that often disappoints.

RasperFat fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Apr 20, 2017

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

With how successful the Republicans are and the kids gloves they're treated with in the media just proves how Americans are penny wise and pound foolish.

That and how Aaron Sorkin has poisoned the mind of a generation into believing his lovely political fan fiction is how things work.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


I'm hopeful that 2016-2017 has blown the lid off the Sorkin fantasy for most people, even if the politicians in charge haven't quite caught up yet. There's a lot less idiotic talk of working with Republicans that totally for reals care about not burning the US to the ground and plundering the ashes just disagree on the method of making things better.

Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 13:41 on Apr 20, 2017

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Radish posted:

I'm hopeful that 2016-2017 has blown the lid off the Sorkin fantasy for most people, even if the politicians in charge haven't quite caught up yet. There's a lot less idiotic talk of working with Republicans that totally for reals care about not burning the US to the ground and plundering the ashes just disagree on the method of making things better.

It hasn't, the liberal pundits and the brain dead lanyard class are still deluded into believing this fantasy. The politician class maybe catching on, but with the rest they still cling to it in desperate fantasy

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Yeah pundits, especially liberal ones, are totally worthless through and though and will never learn since they value optics more than literally anything else. I think your average voter however is seeing the holes in that idea if the town halls, protests, and anger via social media are any indication. If not that sucks though since the system really can't survive at this point with one side actively working to destroy it and the other thinking they are crafty enough to make a deal so great that the other will only destroy a little at a time.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

Crowsbeak posted:

So you're argument for why Trump is effective is he was slightly better at arguing GOP talking points. SO thats why the blue wall ceased to exist? :lol:

Do you pay attention to these things? Trump was a right wing dream, he didn't just talk through the usual dog whistles and subtle implications, he dropped the mask and just straight talked about how Mexicans were sending over rapists and murderers, Muslims needed to banned and all of the rest. It was well beyond what had been deemed acceptable discourse for decades, even on the right, and most polls really do indicate that his core audience were more extreme conservatives and to a large degree other conservatives were holding their nose voting for him.

The Blue wall fell primarily because the Democrats suck and couldn't mobilize their old base around a weak candidate. Trump didn't actually get many more votes than previous Republican candidates and certainly didn't expand significantly on the amount of low income voters going Republican, Darth Walrus had an interesting post on this in another thread:

Darth Walrus posted:

OK, since we keep relitigating the election, I want to run some back-of-the-napkin maths and determine what actually happened to low-income voters (defined by most calculators and polling groups as people who earned <$50,000 per year) between 2012 and 2016.

Let's start off with the overall numbers. According to the United States Elections Project, 129,070,906 people voted in the 2012 presidential election - that's 58.0% of the eligible electorate. In 2016, 136,700,729 people, or 59.3% of the available electorate, voted. In other words, overall turnout was slightly up in 2016 relative to 2012, even taking into account the growth in the American population during that time.

Now let's look at low-income voters. According to the Roper Center, low-income voters comprised 41% of the overall total. 60% of them voted for Obama and 38% for Romney, leaving third-parties and independents with 2%. If we feed our real numbers through that, that means that there were approximately 52,919,071 low-income votes overall - 31,751,443 to Obama, 20,109,247 to Romney, and 1,058,381 to everyone else.

In 2016, the numbers were significantly different. According to CNN's exit polls, 36% of voters were low-income. 53% of them went Clinton, 41% went Trump, and 6% went third-party/independent. In real numbers, that's 49,212,262 low-income voters overall, 26,082,499 for Clinton, 20,177,028 for Trump, and 2,952,736 for everyone else.

All told, that means that the changes between 2012 and 2016 were:

-3,706,809 total low-income votes
-5,668,944 low-income Democrat votes
+67,781 low-income Republican votes
+1,894,355 low-income third-party/independent votes.

In other words, the (considerable) drop in Democrat votes can be attributed chiefly to two things - a significant drop in low-income turnout, and a major swing to third parties. Trump actually lost voters relative to population growth rate - if low-income Romney voters had increased, like the rest of the population, by 0.7% per year, they would have beaten Trump's 2016 vote-share by 2014. Lack of enthusiasm, voter suppression, and surprisingly appealing challenges by Johnson and Stein were what did the Dems in, basically, not some secret Trumpy mojo.


Majorian posted:

Where Trump succeeded was in tying economic anxiety to racial resentment. "Immigration!:argh:" was never just about immigration. It was about immigrants takin' arr jurbs. It was about those crooked DEMOCRATS caring more about non-citizens than the American working class that had gotten screwed over under Clinton. One can't decouple the economic aspect of votes for Trump from the racial/xenophobic aspect.

I like this post, and I think it better showed where Trump succeeded but at the same time this has been the way racism usually works in America and worldwide. Going right back to the mid nineteenth century and, say, Irish anxiety over the end of slavery allowing recently freed slaves to move north and compete for low wage jobs you can see almost the same thing at work. Trump was no innovator. As well as that, from the link I posted a couple of posts ago people seem to have problems with immigration that's not explicitly tied to economics, mentioning a more loose concern with 'Customs and values' with Trump supporters having an overall harsher view on immigrants and minorities. It also suggests that on economic or welfare issues Trump supporters were pretty normal conservatives:

quote:

Trump is viewed positively by the large majority of Republicans (66%) who say that the poor “have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return.”

Among this group, 56% have warm feelings toward Trump, compared with about a third (32%) who have cold feelings. Among the one-quarter of Republicans who say the poor have it hard “because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently,” views of Trump are more mixed (45% warm, 39% cold).

However, comparable majorities of Republican voters who say the economic system unfairly favors powerful interests, and those who see it as generally fair, have warm feelings toward Trump (54% and 50%, respectively).

Similarly, GOP voters who say business corporations make too much profit differ little in their views of Trump from those who say corporations make a fair and reasonable profit (55% warm vs. 51% warm).

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Unfortunately there are still plenty of liberal voters that fall into this thinking. Especially the type that view ideology as a dirty word so they still swallow the Sorkin poison pill of Fukuyama that we've found the solution to all of our disagreements and it's just a matter of finding the right solution and that ideology is over. Just look no further than all of these think pieces about the scourge of populism, or that portray the new rising tide of fascism as populism instead of something fascists use to gain support. It's part in parcel at the heart of the anti democratic feelings of these Sorkin fantasies. So people are still being poisoned by these idiots

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Jesus gently caress would people stop blaming a writer for a television show that hasn't been on in 15 years for all the poo poo that's going wrong in modern politics?

Aaron Sorkin did not make the Dems bad!

Condiv
May 7, 2008

Sorry to undo the effort of paying a domestic abuser $10 to own this poster, but I am going to lose my dang mind if I keep seeing multiple posters who appear to be Baloogan.

With love,
a mod


WampaLord posted:

Jesus gently caress would people stop blaming a writer for a television show that hasn't been on in 15 years for all the poo poo that's going wrong in modern politics?

Aaron Sorkin did not make the Dems bad!

yeah, but have you seen his recent works that dems lavish praise upon?

:barf:

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Condiv posted:

yeah, but have you seen his recent works that dems lavish praise upon?

:barf:

If you want to get mad at a TV person for influencing modern politics, get mad at Mark Burnett for creating The Apprentice.

Trump had years and years of effective propaganda about how he was the smartest and most effective boss and decision maker in America, I guarantee that affected the election more than Newsroom or whatever else y'all have your panties in a bunch about.

Condiv
May 7, 2008

Sorry to undo the effort of paying a domestic abuser $10 to own this poster, but I am going to lose my dang mind if I keep seeing multiple posters who appear to be Baloogan.

With love,
a mod


WampaLord posted:

If you want to get mad at a TV person for influencing modern politics, get mad at Mark Burnett for creating The Apprentice.

Trump had years and years of effective propaganda about how he was the smartest and most effective boss and decision maker in America, I guarantee that affected the election more than Newsroom or whatever else y'all have your panties in a bunch about.

i can be mad at more than one tv person tho right? there's enough hate in my heart for both the creator of the apprentice and the creator of steve jobs movie 3

TyroneGoldstein
Mar 30, 2005

Ze Pollack posted:

no choice but to put Timothy Geithner, King of the Vampires, in charge of the treasury

hands were just tied, real shame about that


pictured: no seriously we couldn't have put any strings on the financial industry bailout, that would have been communism

Which is doubly funny because even Larry loving Summers believed and pushed for all these financial entities that jerked off all over the MBS and CDO markets to be taken out behind the woodshed.

Larry Summers said they should be punished...Larry Summers..and Geithner said no and he won Obama's ear.

Funny that...

RasperFat posted:

They've practically been operating as cartoon villains since the 90s but somehow there's always more words printed about how the Democrats need to be better.

I mean I want the Dems to pull left and be more successful too, but seriously how have we allowed this false equivalency to continue for so long?


People in the media, which tend to lean left, just continually boggle that the Democratic Party has not acted as a counterbalance to the GOP's terribleness. They expect the Grand Old Party to act the way that it does. In contrast, the behavior of Democrats is just mind boggling. That's why it gets pointed out.

TyroneGoldstein fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Apr 20, 2017

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless

RasperFat posted:

False equivalency isn't the right term for it, maybe slanted framing? The media spends roughly equal time criticizing Dems and Republicans (Most of the time, the last couple months of Trump have been too much of a circus to ignore). Even if the Dem criticisms are legitimate, it's still insanity because the Republicans have everything that's terrible about the Dems, plus gilded age levels of corruption and unprecedented incompetence. Republican controlled districts become shittier at a rate approaching 100%.

The Dems have serious issues, but that's because they're trying to corral 60-70% of the country under one banner and that's a wide range of opinions. The Republicans have a rabid insane base of 20% of the country plus greedy middle class people suckered by their FYGM philosophies. They would likely end up better off financially with Dems in charge, but the Republicans showboat them keeping a few nickels instead of wise public investments that help everyone including of them.

The problem is only half the country votes so that 20% base makes up 40% of the actual votes cast and they always vote R even if they hate the candidate.

The media still somehow presents voting like it's a real choice when you have literally insane and destructive party or a flawed party that often disappoints.

They're being criticized because they don't know how to win. You may think the GOP is a "dumpster fire" because reasons, but they are objectively not when it comes to what they control in state and federal legislatures, and of course Pissbaby.

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
I think what might have helped, and what people were hoping for when Obama was elected was something along the lines of (at minimum) creating and shifting military/other state owned facilities to depressed areas, limits on offshoring, state sponsored retraining programs for people made redundant, an expansion of welfare and medicaid for everyone. 2008 was a moment in history when everyone, even poo poo rags like The Economist, were admitting that laissez-faire economics had failed and government intervention was absolutely needed (they got it, but only to bail out finance capital and not the general citizenry). Someone with genuine intention for change and wealth redistribution could have pushed for actual reform, but instead we got Obama.

Made obsolete by the free market in Obama's America? Enjoy a lovely precarious life in the 'gig economy' or bootstrap yourself and (for example) learn to code your way into the VC tech bubble, because an industry that already age discriminates against people with CS degrees and years of industry experience would absolutely love to hire 50 year old laid off manufacturing workers.

The Democrats and other lovely liberal austerity parties across the globe have reaped what they've sown. I consider Obama a con-man who deserves a large share of responsibility for that decline.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

RasperFat posted:

I think Obama's handling of this was terrible and is part of ongoing resentment, but this article reminded me how one sided criticism is still in the media.

I agree with the analysis and WaPo is supposed to be left leaning and is criticizing Trump and Republicans, but these sort of think pieces examining why Democrats fail seem to be almost completely absent for Republicans.

The GOP in its entirety has been a dumpster fire for decades. They've literally done almost nothing but hurt their constituents and districts with terrible budgeting and lovely tax laws. They invoke bigotry commonly and are terrible at wars and emergency responses.

They've practically been operating as cartoon villains since the 90s but somehow there's always more words printed about how the Democrats need to be better.

I mean I want the Dems to pull left and be more successful too, but seriously how have we allowed this false equivalency to continue for so long?

Plenty of ink was spilled about the Republicans' failures when they were, y'know, failing. Right now they control the Presidency, Congress, more governorships than they've held at any point since 1922, and almost enough state legislatures to call a Constitutional Convention.

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

RasperFat posted:

I mean I want the Dems to pull left and be more successful too, but seriously how have we allowed this false equivalency to continue for so long?

The GOP is basically comparable to a force of nature and can't really be changed because its leadership/politicians consists of a bunch of genuinely malicious people. So I think a bunch of non-conservative journalists realize either consciously or unconsciously that it's futile to write articles about how they need to change.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

WampaLord posted:

Jesus gently caress would people stop blaming a writer for a television show that hasn't been on in 15 years for all the poo poo that's going wrong in modern politics?

Aaron Sorkin did not make the Dems bad!

:agreed: Plus like I've said before, every generation has its version of "The West Wing," or "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington," etc, etc.

Still, I did find Chapo's take on it pretty funny.


khwarezm posted:

I like this post, and I think it better showed where Trump succeeded but at the same time this has been the way racism usually works in America and worldwide. Going right back to the mid nineteenth century and, say, Irish anxiety over the end of slavery allowing recently freed slaves to move north and compete for low wage jobs you can see almost the same thing at work. Trump was no innovator.

Oh, certainly. It's one of the oldest political tricks in the book. But the way forward is thankfully pretty clear to us at this point: outflank Trump where we can, and where he outflanked us. An economic justice platform won't end racism in and of itself, but it can play an important role that's been missing for the past several decades.

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless

tekz posted:

Made obsolete by the free market in Obama's America? Enjoy a lovely precarious life in the 'gig economy' or bootstrap yourself and (for example) learn to code your way into the VC tech bubble, because an industry that already age discriminates against people with CS degrees and years of industry experience would absolutely love to hire 50 year old laid off manufacturing workers.

If you're over 40-45 or so you might as well lobotomize the portion of your brain that has computer skills because you will never, ever be hired for them unless you're already one of the top people in your field

I'm honestly loving terrified about turning 40, your job prospects seem to go completely into the shitter at that point unless you've already built a strong career/network

Pedro De Heredia
May 30, 2006
I don't know how meaningful these "Trump voters said they care about issues x,y, z" really are. Or if the point they're trying to make ("people with bad beliefs support Donald Trump") is even sane.

These people believe a bunch of poo poo they hear on the radio and on tv (including "support Trump"). They will change their minds about things if they're pushed to do so.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

Pedro De Heredia posted:

I don't know how meaningful these "Trump voters said they care about issues x,y, z" really are. Or if the point they're trying to make ("people with bad beliefs support Donald Trump") is even sane.

These people believe a bunch of poo poo they hear on the radio and on tv (including "support Trump"). They will change their minds about things if they're pushed to do so.

Its meaningful because its honestly unlikely that the Democrats will or should be able to change their platform enough to net enough Trump voters to decide the next election. The truth is most Trump voters are pretty staunch conservatives and a lot of polling suggests that he didn't actually detach many former democratic voters so much as regular democratic voters either didn't vote or went third party. That's the crowd the Democrats should focus on, and yes they'll likely respond well to economic populism.

Even aside from all of that, realistically speaking if these people are hearing poo poo from the media and support Trump off that, how can the left do much about that? Fox news won't go away anytime soon.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

khwarezm posted:

Its meaningful because its honestly unlikely that the Democrats will or should be able to change their platform enough to net enough Trump voters to decide the next election. The truth is most Trump voters are pretty staunch conservatives and a lot of polling suggests that he didn't actually detach many former democratic voters so much as regular democratic voters either didn't vote or went third party. That's the crowd the Democrats should focus on, and yes they'll likely respond well to economic populism.

Even aside from all of that, realistically speaking if these people are hearing poo poo from the media and support Trump off that, how can the left do much about that? Fox news won't go away anytime soon.

You don't need to net trump voters, you need to make your own voters come out and vote while depress the other side enough so they stay home

In the near future nobody will be getting above ~55% or so in a presidential election

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

khwarezm posted:

Its meaningful because its honestly unlikely that the Democrats will or should be able to change their platform enough to net enough Trump voters to decide the next election.

Well, but why not? A lot of those Trump voters did vote for Obama twice in a row, they voted for Democrats for decades before that, and this election was decided by only 80,000 votes in the Upper Midwest. The Dems wouldn't even be changing their platform that much from where it was in 2016; it's a question of emphasis, marketing, and running candidates that actually run ON that platform, as opposed to dragging their feet on it.

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless
gently caress Trump voters, chase the people that don't vote and do it by promoting a platform of economic and social justice. People that don't vote tend to be left as gently caress policy wise.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


I just feel like 2020 is in the bag as long as a better campaigner than Hillary gets nominated, which is not a high bar.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

call to action posted:

gently caress Trump voters, chase the people that don't vote and do it by promoting a platform of economic and social justice. People that don't vote tend to be left as gently caress policy wise.

The way you attract blue collar ex-Dems who defected to Trump is exactly the same way you get people who didn't turn out to vote. The notion that the Dems would have to get more racist or misogynist or whatever to bring those blue collar ex-Dems back into the fold is idiotic.

dont even fink about it posted:

I just feel like 2020 is in the bag as long as a better campaigner than Hillary gets nominated, which is not a high bar.

It's possible, but as 2016 showed us, we can't rely on anything being "in the bag." Democrats can't afford to take chances anymore.

Plus they need more gains than just the White House. They need Dems in Congress, governor's mansions, and statehouses.

e: \/\/\/this, although I'd take the under on the "50% chance of reelection" assessment. I'd say it's closer to 30/70, but that's still waaaay too loving close for comfort, IMO\/\/\/

Majorian fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Apr 20, 2017

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

dont even fink about it posted:

I just feel like 2020 is in the bag as long as a better campaigner than Hillary gets nominated, which is not a high bar.

incumbents have a huge advantage and tend to get elected unless it's a 3rd term for one party or the economy is doing terribly

Trump atm is vulnerable but he has like 4 years left to get his approval ratings to 45/45 instead of 40/50

what I'm saying is that Trump is at least 50-50 on being a two term president

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Majorian posted:

:agreed: Plus like I've said before, every generation has its version of "The West Wing," or "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington," etc, etc.

Still, I did find Chapo's take on it pretty funny.

Of course the big difference being that Harry Truman or anyone else in political power never tried to govern like Mr. Smith Goes to Washington is how politics actually work. Unlike many modern democrats who act like the West Wing is a how to guide to politics. It's directly responsible for cursing us with Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias.

The problem with Sorkin and the West Wing, to paraphrase Amber Lee Frost from Chapo is that it's The Last Man and the End of History the show. It's decided all we need to do just tweak the right policy and everything will fall into place. Insisting that these are not ideological positions when they without a doubt are. And the Democrats are heavily invested in this idea of a post ideological ideology they bought into over 25 years ago and after everything that happened with Obama and Clinton that should have dispelled this notion they still cling to it

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

The show is a symptom, not the cause!

Democrats are not treating The West Wing as a guide to politics, The West Wing was written in a time when Dems were being super lovely and third-way-y. Y'all have the causation exactly backwards.

Stop acting like if we somehow removed this show from existence that politics would suddenly be fine. It's too easy a thing to point at and blame as a distraction from the real issues.

Condiv
May 7, 2008

Sorry to undo the effort of paying a domestic abuser $10 to own this poster, but I am going to lose my dang mind if I keep seeing multiple posters who appear to be Baloogan.

With love,
a mod


KomradeX posted:

Of course the big difference being that Harry Truman or anyone else in political power never tried to govern like Mr. Smith Goes to Washington is how politics actually work. Unlike many modern democrats who act like the West Wing is a how to guide to politics. It's directly responsible for cursing us with Ezra Klein and Matt Yglesias.

The problem with Sorkin and the West Wing, to paraphrase Amber Lee Frost from Chapo is that it's The Last Man and the End of History the show. It's decided all we need to do just tweak the right policy and everything will fall into place. Insisting that these are not ideological positions when they without a doubt are. And the Democrats are heavily invested in this idea of a post ideological ideology they bought into over 25 years ago and after everything that happened with Obama and Clinton that should have dispelled this notion they still cling to it

i think dems like to pretend the west wing was clinton: the tv show

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KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

It wouldn't, but it does reinforce the toxic beliefs of a bunch of them that want to retreat into fantasy and act like the world works like a lovely fictional political drama. Which is outside of how lovely the Clinton's and other Neo liberal democrats were in the 90s. And you can feel the Sorkin influence every time Matt Yglesias write a piece about why sweat shop labor isn't a big deal or every time Ezra Klein goes out and blows some right wing think tank ghoul because he has good arguments or is respectable or whatever.

The West Wing is not responsible for the rot of corruption in our politicians but it has rotted the minds of those who would become lanyards and even regular voters

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