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What’s interesting though is that a team’s head-to-head goal differential against their given opponent(s) seems to matter just as much. As a standalone metric, head-to-head goal differentials have forecasted winners at just about the same success rate – and over the last five years, it’s actually marginally beaten out the likes of Corsi% and Goal% as alternative standalone measures.

You’ll notice that the top two, in terms of predictivity, are actually combinations of metrics. If you looked at every historical matchup in which a team – regardless of whether or not they were a favorite or underdog (it should be noted that differentiating between the two here doesn’t seem to matter) – had a higher percentage of the shot and goal share than their opponents, they win about 73 per cent of the time. Though nine seasons of data is still a bit limited, that certainly seems to be an upgrade over the individual metrics.

When you combine instances in which a team was superior in Corsi% and head-to-head goal differential, you’re at about the 75th percentile. It’s been particularly accurate over the last 75 playoff matchups, nailing 58 of those.

So, how does this play back to a team like Montreal? Well, one thing to keep in mind is that the Bruins – regardless of who is coaching them – have dominated the shot share all year (about 56 per cent). If you are looking for an opponent you have both had success against during the regular season and know you can reasonably out-shoot on most nights, the Rangers would satisfy that criteria, while the Bruins wouldn’t.
Definitely something to keep in mind as April approaches.