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Background--Good Dem vs. Very Evil Republican Montana has only one congressional seat, recently vacated by Ryan Zinke after his appointment to Secretary of the Interior. The election to fill that seat will occur on May 25, just over a month from today. The race is between Rob Quist, a pro-choice, Bernie-backed progressive Democrat who supports universal public healthcare and Greg Gianforte, a fundamentalist Republican billionaire (or near-billionaire, you can never be certain these days) who funded a young earth creationist museum. Wow, that's a pretty stark contrast! Here's Rob Quist, folk musician hero:  Here's Greg Gianforte, young earth creationist:  Gianforte on Social Security: "There's nothing in the Bible that talks about retirement. And yet it's been an accepted concept in our culture today. Nowhere does it say, 'Well, he was a good and faithful servant, so he went to the beach... The example I think of is Noah. How old was Noah when he built the ark? 600. He wasn't like, cashing Social Security checks, he wasn't hanging out, he was working. So, I think we have an obligation to work. The role we have in work may change over time, but the concept of retirement is not biblical." Wowza! State of the Race Republicans are pouring millions of dollars into the race, including a recent $700,000 Super PAC ad-buy. However, Quist is staying competitive on the back of nationwide small donations, which now total over $1.3 million. There are also crappy Libertarian and Green candidates involved, I'm not even going to bother listing them here. So Does Rob actually have a shot? Emphatic yes. Very little meaningful polling has been done, but the few crappy Gravis and Google Consumer Survey polls carried out show both candidates pulling between 38% and 50%. Quist is even in the lead in some of them! The reality is that this race is extremely dynamic and we have very little idea about what is actually going on, especially because the national Dems are not paying much attention. Republicans would not be throwing in the big bucks if they didn't believe that the seat was at risk. Rob Quist is a popular country musician in Montana with excellent name recognition, and Bernie will be showing up to campaign on his behalf in May. For reference, the Cook PVI in this district is R +11. The Democratic candidate did quite well in the recent Kansas Fourth Special Election, getting within 7 points in a Cook PVI R +14 district despite being outspent 2-1. Quist has much better name recognition and a lot more support in a substantially less red district. Yes, he really could pull this off! OK now let's give Quist some money Go here and give Quist some support! I did!  Unlike the race currently happening in Georgia, this election won't be held until May 25, 2017. This gives your money plenty of time to do some work! Please consider supporting Quist today. Thank you. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 21:47 on Apr 18, 2017 |
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Apr 17, 2017 21:15
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Concerned Citizen posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhuOSHlrQXA good ads, this Gianforte fellow looks like a giant target. a tech billionaire in montana, c'mon now! he lost the 2016 race for governor to a moderate dem despite the trumpslide in the state, this is his attempt at a consolation prize i guess
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Apr 17, 2017 21:37
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mormonpartyboat posted:quistlings quistlings > quislings IMO
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Apr 17, 2017 21:57
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wow we've already raised $55. please help us reach our goal of $56, thank you
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Apr 17, 2017 22:10
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GodFish posted:I put in 15$ a couple weeks ago, but I found out sbout the race from SA so you can count it. heck yeah, $70 for the conQuistador
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Apr 18, 2017 07:28
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Elephanthead posted:Why is there not a C-Spam Ed Balls group to funnel a donation through? I see other groups racking up the leader board? it is done https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/edballs
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Apr 18, 2017 21:46
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just pretend the little gauge shows $70 already ok
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Apr 18, 2017 21:51
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GlyphGryph posted:I've thrown in $20! Yeah, please share, it's just stuff pulled from Wikipedia mostly. The reference to the Georgia special election is a bit out of date now.
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Apr 19, 2017 19:49
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Agean90 posted:i tossed in 30 bucks earlier this morning before the ed balls group was starte sorry Thanks! I'll include that in our total count, which is up to $215! Pretty solid start. quote:Also, if anyone is interested in phonebanking, here's the Bernie org that's organizing it: Good link. It's cool that people have already started phonebanking with the election still over a month away.
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Apr 19, 2017 20:53
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GlyphGryph posted:Also I'm currently laughing my rear end off at the "suggested donor amounts", which I didn't notice the first time around. I am guessing you set them directly, so thanks for the triple take. glad someone noticed, couldn't help it when the option presented itself
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Apr 19, 2017 21:27
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Byolante posted:Am i correct in believing foreign nationals aren't allowed to donate to American political campaigns? you are correct: http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/foreign.shtml there is an exception, though--if you have a green card then you can contribute
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Apr 19, 2017 22:38
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GodFish posted:Well either the DCCC is helping Quist or he's copied their style because my inbox if getting flooded with DOOOMED emails asking for donations for him Yeah I suggest unsubscribing, pretty much all Dem candidates apparently spam the hell out of you now when you show an ounce of interest and it's completely insufferable.
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Apr 20, 2017 09:43
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Elephanthead posted:The first generic donation link had all the groups donating in a list, how do I see how far up Ed Balls has reached. I can't find it in the mess of Act Blue badness. https://secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/47666 Only $85,500 behind the Daily Kos!
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Apr 20, 2017 19:24
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Good ad, Quist owns.
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Apr 20, 2017 21:02
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http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/329781-dem-campaign-arm-spending-six-figures-in-montana-house-race The DCCC is finally committing some funding to the Quist campaign in the "six figure" range. However, Republican-aligned Super PACs are dropping well over $1 million, and keep upping the ante with additional ad buys. At the end of the day, Quist is going to be outspent by a large margin, and he is still relying largely on grassroots enthusiasm and fundraising to keep up with the Super PAC onslaught.
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Apr 20, 2017 23:21
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HorseRenoir posted:Grassroots enthusiasm is worth a lot more than PAC money, especially for a special election I agree. But wall-to-wall ads on conservative media programs reminding people to vote is also nothing to sneeze at.
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Apr 20, 2017 23:32
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https://twitter.com/gianforte/status/856317696945684480 Quist's opponent is going all-in on the Trump Train theory. Looks like he only merits a Don Jr., though. Sad!
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Apr 24, 2017 23:27
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http://www.abcfoxmontana.com/story/35231660/montana-sportsmen-alliance-endorses-rob-quist The Montana Sportsmen Alliance has endorsed congressional candidate Rob Quist (D). Rob Quist earned an endorsement from the Montana Sportsmen Alliance (MSA) for his support of public lands and the Second Amendment. MSA, a nonpartisan advocacy group for Montana sportsmen and women, pointed to Quist's Montana roots and stances on wildlife and forest management as key to earning the group's endorsement. "Rob has endorsed NO Federal Land Transfer pledge. He stands against this transfer and understands the dynamics of the folks trying to promote transfer," MSA wrote. "We are confident that Rob Quist is indeed the kind of organic Congressman Montana needs to represent us!" On its site, MSA says its mission is to "work to continue the core values of public ownership of public wildlife, and public access to public resources." Rob, who grew up on a wheat farm and ranch outside Cut Bank, is a proponent of keeping public lands public and of place-based forest management plans. Quist said he was proud to received the endorsement in a press release, adding, "The transfer and eventual sale of public land is nothing more than theft against our children and grandchildren, and I steadfastly oppose it. I'm also committed to standing up for the Second Amendment and ensuring our sportsmen and women can continue to hunt and fish on public lands."
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Apr 25, 2017 21:17
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lets get that goat elected
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Apr 26, 2017 20:50
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GodFish posted:put in another 20$ and then unsubscribed from the emails Excellent moves both.
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Apr 28, 2017 07:13
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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/28/montana-special-election-2017-early-voting-237751 Looks like the DCCC is spending only $200k total, welp.
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Apr 29, 2017 08:03
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Too bad you weren't a skinny, centrist wonk with connections to the military industrial complex, quist, you coulda got the big dembux
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Apr 29, 2017 08:06
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Venuz Patrol posted:
yeah i collected a bunch from the DCCC for awhile and theyre basically indistinguishable from scammy spam mail presumably it's meant to prey on the senile or something cutting-edge fundraising
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May 1, 2017 02:35
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Concerned Citizen posted:some races outsource their emails to dccc, so i wouldn't be surprised if they were running it. im almost certain that theyre either using the DCCC program or they outsourced it to the DCCC entirely, it's extremely similar i suspect his fundraising success has been due to his progressive appeal and grassroots people sharing with one another directly more than anything else, though
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May 1, 2017 20:51
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Gringostar posted:also 200k goes a hell of a lot further in montana than in one of the richest districts in the nation you'd be surprised, the race is equivalent to a senate race because it encompasses the entire state, which is one of the largest and most populous congressional districts in the country also, the media market there is apparently relatively costly for a variety of reasons it's very different from the recent kansas special election, for example, which took place in a relatively tiny area Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 20:56 on May 1, 2017 |
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May 1, 2017 20:53
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Anyway, we're only $40 off of our next target! Donate some much-needed funds today and propel the Quistlings to victory!
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May 1, 2017 20:56
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Looks like the DCCC is coming through! Hopefully their willingness to invest was the result of some good internal polling numbers. https://twitter.com/AASchapiro/status/859813536712855553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw QUIST
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May 3, 2017 20:05
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Cotton Candidasis posted:Made my second-ever political donation to one Rob Quist in hopes of more good dems, less raptors, and the chance to survive Jurassic Park. Good call. Life finds a way... QUIST *gunshot*
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May 5, 2017 01:31
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It's important to have both a public and a private position. -Gianforte, probably.
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May 5, 2017 23:26
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Concerned Citizen posted:maybe not so wide Goddamn, that enthusiastic voter column has me HYPED. Special elections have super low turnout, so enthusiasm is absolutely key.
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May 6, 2017 23:52
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Gianforte allegedly fired an employee for having multiple sclerosis: http://www.rawstory.com/2017/04/montana-congressional-candidate-settled-lawsuit-with-employee-who-said-he-was-fired-for-having-ms/
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May 8, 2017 21:11
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'forte is a MESS 'forte is a WASTE
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May 11, 2017 04:02
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cool, finally got a quist fundraising email that isnt lovely, soul-crushing spamOur Revolution posted:Rob Quist and his grassroots team of supporters in Montana are working harder than ever to win Montana's special election to Congress. Coming from a rural state like I do, Rob is raising issues that resonate with people in a way that the Beltway establishment just hasn't figured out. We know that we can surprise the pundit class and push Rob over the top on May 25th, but he's going to need our support. yep, thats berno
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May 12, 2017 00:29
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Concerned Citizen posted:Good news! Rob Quist apparently has genital herpes! But actually! montanans can rest assured that Quist is well-acquainted with the plight of preexisting medical conditions
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May 17, 2017 01:37
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Being able to shoot some hoops is a key indicator for progressive politicians.
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May 21, 2017 20:03
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I am legit hoping the libertarian candidate plays spoiler for the GOP. Lot of country folks will probably chafe at voting for a tech multimillionaire despite being staunch conservatives.
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May 22, 2017 20:10
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Weird how these billionaire entrepreneurs-turned-GOP candidates keep turning out to be actual, certifiable psychopaths. QUIST
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May 25, 2017 04:06
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Greg Gianforte, Montana G.O.P. Candidate, Is Charged in Attack on Reporter The Republican candidate in a hotly contested special House election in Montana was charged with assaulting a journalist on Wednesday at what was to be a final rally in Bozeman on the eve of the vote. The attack brought police officers to the event and sent the reporter to the hospital for X-rays. In a statement late Wednesday, the office of the Gallatin County sheriff, Brian Gootkin, said there was enough evidence to charge the candidate, Greg Gianforte, with misdemeanor assault. Mr. Gianforte, the Republican candidate for the state’s lone House seat, is scheduled to appear in court before June 7. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/us/politics/greg-gianforte-montana-republican-body-slams-reporter.html
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May 25, 2017 09:31
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Results start coming in at 10pm EST https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/montana-at-large-congressional-election/
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May 26, 2017 02:34
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Polls closed, get hype! Quist now trading at 20c on PredictIt 
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May 26, 2017 03:02
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